3:38pm
A break of 109.80 on the SPY could result in a more bearish sentiment into tomorrow’s trading day, where as if the bulls sustain 110.00 by the end of the day, i expect the market to rally quite hard. If we end between 109.80-110.00 i favor the bulls but only by a little bit 
2:06pm
After a break of 110.00, you have to start thinking bullish about the market, start buying dips instead of selling the rallies. It’s important to see where the market ends today, but it looks like it could end at the highs and continue rallying tomorrow. If it doesn’t end at the highs, as long as it ends above 110.00 you have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt.
12:37pm
GS 5 minute testing the 149 level after it rallied to it earlier today. This is a buying opportunity with a stop right below, even though $150 level is the strongest resistance. I think if 149 holds, GS might be able to break $150 too, but it’s a good intraday trade either way:
12:06pm
The shine comes back to gold! http://www.ino.com/info/614/CD4204/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3
11:11am
SPY breaks 109.20 and obviously starts rallying hard.. it’ll have to break 109.85-110 for me to be back into the bullish camp overall.. rememeber that i am neutral between 106-110.
Poll of the day:
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10:24am
XLF not looking great, it’s now testing 14.08-14.10 support, once that breaks it will most likely fill in the gap and then potentially fall to new lows. Here’s the hourly chart:
10:20am
USO or (OIL ETF) is losing ground fast, it will find strong support around the 33.75 level but it’s now below 34. The SPY still hanging out between 109.20 and 109, a break of 109 will shove us to 108.55-108.60.
9:41am
I’m waiting for 2 10 minute candles close above 109.20 before i become more bullish on the intraday action… so far the market is undecided where it wants to go. If it breaks 108.55-108.60 to the downside in the same manner i’ll become bearish on the intraday action (for now).
7:32am
For those who want to get short GS, it’s still not time. While a break of $147 to the downside could present you with an awesome intraday short opportunity, a break of $146 to the downside seals the deal for the bears. Take a look at the $146 support line on my 4 hour chart, former high will be support, and once it breaks i think we go much lower:
6:10am
After the SPX has hit the 1070 level (some strong support) yesterday morning, it bounced. It now has enough momentum to potentially test 1090 again, and it looks like the Euro has gained a little bit of ground against he dollar as well. If 1090 does break to the upside, there’s one more target i want to keep holding short for, and that’s 1095. A break of 1095, and i’m becoming more bullish.
Where do i become a full on bear? A break down of the 106 low (actually it’s around 105.80+). That’s when i get really bearish. Here’s the daily chart of the SPX:
Huge H&S on the UUP…Uncle Ben is going to make sure inflation is here to stay. The real question is if the market will tank with the dollar. It appears we’re going to fight for a large reverse h&s on the $SPX daily versus a h&s that tops with a gap fill on the 60 minute. I’m not entirely sold on the Wave 3 theory…although the weekly 50 moving average is looking to roll over.
I’m leaning towards a higher move based on inflation expectations. Helicopter Ben is going to rain down cash and monetize the debt. We are adding debt 5 times what we are producing in GDP. It’s a matter of time before the real house of cards falls and the rest of the iceberg shows its true colors…Dubai…PIIGS…UK…US
The downfall of the world economy will be because of the Yen carry trade over the last 20 years. That bubbled everything.
Today as far as data goes is the most important. Thursday has jobs data, but today we have a few things to watch out for:
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Producer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks
12:30 PM ET
Just sold 300 POT at 141.65 at SLD 30, 04:19:12 PDT on Tue, 17 Aug 2010.
There will be a short squeeze at the open, but also if your a hedge fund and just made a 30% return in POT in 1 day, wouldn’t you want to unload some positions..?
NEW YORK (TheStreet) — Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT) said Tuesday it rejected an unsolicited takeover offer from BHP Billiton (BHP) for $130 a share. Potash shares closed Monday at $112.15. The shares rose to $140 in premarket trading Tuesday.
The offer is valued at about $38.5 billion.
Potash, in a statement Tuesday, called the BHP Billiton offer “grossly inadequate.”
amazing! Lucky but amazing.
I initiated a short position by selling. I.e. I was never long.
They’re squeezing the shorts in the AM.
-
BHP is paying 66% of POT with debt.. the way I see it, 130 * .66 * corporate tax rate (.40) = 34.32
130 – 34.32 = approximately yesterday’s close.. so they’re really not paying any premium.. I’m not sure why this is up 30% then..
We know you never bought it, just BS’d later and said you did under 5 id’s.
Did you have sam buy a billion shares in the premarket in London or Paris?
Idan,
Any ideas today…lots of good news today…thinking it will be a strong day today but with light volume
thanks!
We opened right at the 109.20, until that breaks you can’t be bullish yet.. wait and see it break, take a long position if you want on a break of that.. but also 1095 will be strong resistance.
thinking of taking a position in GOOG…buy it up to 494 for a quick trade…1 day or 2…is it a good possibility?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GOOG&p=D&yr=2&mn=5&dy=0&id=p56586882741&a=181587577
still hasn’t broke down yet.
wait for a break of 490…
Are we buying now?
I bought at $490..where is the next level of resistance?
Only want to be in this for today
thanks!!!
technically yes.. you should be buying this breakout.. with a stop somewhere close… and trail that stop.. 494 is strong resistance too.
Got out of GOOG for a nice little profit and now bought some GS…only hold it for a day or so
If it breaks 150, where do you see resistence?
thanks!!!
Futures are up 1%, must be fraud
Strong open and away we go on the train to paradise.
TODAY I AM A GOD.
POT
Pre-market: 145.16 +33.01 (29.43%)
My two biggest longs, AGU + POT are paying off huge.
I have been talking about/holding these two for a month now.
And typical me, I move markets.
Remember how last week I posted I was selling 1/2 my POT.
Once again if you had done the opposite you would have made a ton.
It’s really weird how I’m such a contrarian indicator.
I bought POT at the exact bottom because I did the opposite!
BTW, I am not selling either at this point.
You make less sense with each post?
Lithium. Not invest, get prescribed.
dude, don’t be a hater.
a simple congratulations would suffice.
how are my posts not making sense?
My instincts for buying/selling are always wrong.
So I started doing the opposite of my instincts.
That’s why I bought POT.TO at 88.85.
If you don’t understand buyouts, this stock will be back at $130 very soon.
This price is ridicoulous, I actually shorted another 300 at 145 in the AM.
yikes…as a short term trade I could see that, especially if the market tanks.
I’m holding this for the longer term.
130 is way low as a bid and the market feels a higher bid is on the way.
BHP was trying to pull a fast one…this thing should sell out at 200+.
I’m happy to be making money on this but am pissed another Canadian company is going to foreign hands.
I kind of don’t want them to sell out.
market is going into a crappy area now. probably consolidation for most of the day..
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p52364863383&a=160222837
needs to break back above that 1088-1090 area.
new candle has good potential for a rise above these areas now. RSI will allow it, but VIX is coming upon support.
No wonder why 95% lose, I just came across this message on Yahoo.
Where is BHP getting 38 Billion dollars in cash 2 minutes ago Not showing on the books…….Anybody know?
Up over $600 on POT already.. not covering until $130 !!
Nibbling into some puts on POT too.. lmao this is too easy.
I would be worried on that position. if it doesn’t get below 140 in the next 10-15 minutes.
Yes idan, the world excluding sam, zee tshirt, etc would be worried.
Problem is you post real trades, the others are living in some fantasy camp and use sugar mountain
margin a/c’s. Paper trading is never the same, is it?
i am in on a short at 140.7
candle is below again. let’s see if the RSI support here gives a bit of a boost.
i might just go take a nap.
idan, woo – any good long entry for ovti ,nflx, amzn, and BRF?
thanks
I’m looking to short NFLX soon, i’m waiting for a reversal day on NFLX first.
it has pulled back 7 pts from today highs. Should i enter or wait for another pull back?
Thx
AMZN above 130 will be a great entry, right now is not a bad entry either, maybe wait for a break of the 128.1+ high.
thank you as always.
I own 1.318 shares of POT, my account just couldnt sell the odd shares. Now after holding forever, I’m only down 5% on this trade. Now… If I was Sam
I’M UP HUGE HUGE HUGE ON POT. I TOLD YOU ALL I OWNED THIS. I HOPE YOU ARE ALL UP AS HUGE AS ME. I TOLD YOU ABOUT THIS SO MANY TIMES.
Taxi, you obvious see what rest of us do. zee=sam=tshirt and a hundred others all doing revised trades
in fabricated money.
In London we call em peacocks (and tax guys taxis btw)
Holding long TNA for about a week now. Down 2% on position, holding for a swing trade. 1/2 position was bought on first day of big drop; 2nd half added towards end of same day. Amazed it’s not more underwater.
Going to ignore market for a little while, I’m sure this will not be a smooth ride when key supports / resistances are met. Hoping to hold until 1100 area and then re-evaluate. Will keep loose stop.
JPM is down like mud sllider
George Soros’s Soros Fund Management LLC sold shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (NYSE: PNC) and U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) during the second quarter as the financial sector fell.
The hedge fund, based out of New York, oversees about $25 billion in assets. The fund sold 2.4 million shares in JPMorgan during the quarter in a regulatory filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday. By the end of June, Soros’ fund had 107,500 shares valued at $3.9 million by the end of June.
Soros also reduced his holdings in U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) dramatically from 2.03 million shares to just 22,600 shares by the end of the second quarter. Shares of PNC Financial Services were also sold by Soros during the quarter.
The fund also sold all of its stock in Petroleo Brasileiro SA, a state-controlled oil producer in Brazil. The holding was previously one of the fund’s largest holdings which was valued at $233 million as of March 31st. Shares of Petrobras dropped 22% in the second quarter.
The data was revealed in a Form 13F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which is required by money managers that oversee more than $100 million in equities. Firms are required to list their U.S. traded stocks, options and convertible bonds, however, the filings do not show foreign securities or the fund’s cash on hand.
Shares of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) rose by 0.51% on Monday ending the day at $37.69. Shares of PNC Financial Services rose by 1.0% on Monday ending at $55.64. Shares of US Bancorp fell by 0.41% on Monday ending the day at $22.13.
Idan,
Can you take a look at Sprint? Looks like it’s ready to break out……could run to $5 pretty easily.
Looks like strong resistance at $4.54, but may be clear sailing after that!
I see 4.60 as being the most important resistance for Sprint to face… It won’t run to 5, until 4.60 and 4.70 are broken.
May be an interesting interview to tune in to……….http://www.cnbc.com/id/38735488?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo
Nice rise and break above the 1090 area. 1095 looks like a good minimum place to rise to. probably won’t break 1100. i’ll probably limit sell in the 1095s.
I’m not buying the up move, sold my Teck calls for a profit. I will wait for some more upside before shorting the second leg down. I see it topping around 1092 to 1100 max. All cash right now.
there are 2 retraces in this 1092 area that are overlapping. I’m hoping we break north of that 1092 area so i can bag a bit more profit, but you could be right and we could see a short term top there.
that 1100 area break would allow for a gap, don’t know what the market will do to get it to break there, which is why i agree that today isn’t the day for it.
Amazing market jumps up 50 points on nothing.
Ever heard of a 2-factor binominal model & random walk theory?
Apply that to a 20VIX and you’ll see it’s not so amazing.. it’s probability.
This will be a +200 day after being down 5 days in a row.
Normally I would take the route – au – contrarion of the polls.. but POT is already up, what 70% in 6 weeks? Go long at $140? Yeah right.. Unless a new offer is on the table, POT should quickly fall at least to the pre-offer price of $130USD.
Look, before today’s big bid, Potash was at 24 times trailing earnings; now it’s close to 30 times trailing earnings..Given POT’s unanimous rejection of BHP’s offer, it could be a long battle with a higher offer likely to emerge. A theoretical 30% premium to last night’s close (in line with average M&A premiums paid in the sector over the last 5 years) would place POT shares at $146/share.. As mentioned before if thers is no deal, the value from debt payments should easily take this back to $120-135. Disclaimer, Short 600 avg. Price $143.345.. Bid to Cover 300 at 136.50; Another 300 at 138.50.. Although I think $130 is possible, the higher probability play is in the first couple of dollars down.. I’ll be glad with with 6 points on 600 shares.. tootles.
I really should of liquidated my account and just went all IN short POT.. damn.. already at $139 now.
retrace resistances broken in the 1092s. woohoo. 1095 here we come. praying for 1100. short term RSI would be screaming overbought though.
this may have been premature, but i sold at a limit just now on my SPY calls.
avg price on my positions over the last few days:
SPY oct 112 calls
bot @ 2.14
sold @ 2.71
very nice. As the world screams that the sky is falling. I believe it will fall and I can’t imagine any intervention stopping that. But I believe it’s a few months away, so i will be a dirty whore and stay long.
agreed. even though all the mistakes in this economy are screaming for a crash, there’s no problem with the bubble getting bigger.
Irish CDS, which recently was trading wide of 300, tightened materially after the country, most likely with a very direct ECB intervention, managed to place two €0.75 billion auctions, the first a 4% due 1/15/2014, and the second: 5% due 10/18/2020. The Bid To Cover on the first was 5.4, compared to a BTC of 3.1 at the last auction held in May, explained simply by the surge in the rate from 3.11% to 3.627%. The 2020, however, saw the BTC drop from 3.0 to 2.4 as the yield dropped from 5.537% to 5.386%. In other words, the ECB overbid for the near maturity, and likely just put in for a token amount. And for some odd reason, CDS traders see this latest central bank intervention to extend and pretend as a favorable development, and have decided to run away from Irish risk for the time being. The question of how long the ECB can continue this charade is relevant: after all the Fed has just one country to deal with. And continuing with Ireland, the country’s central bank stated that the net cost of Anglo-Irish to the government may be €22-25 billion, even as it cleared up hypocritically that capital raising via taxing banks’ excessive reliance on short-term borrowings would be preferable. Of course, the central bank should keep its mouth shut, and be happy that the ECB will continue to support any part of the curve, as in its absence the country would be long insolvent.
updated 6 month SPX chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p25307386030&a=160222837
RSI hit resistance as well.
1 month/5min RSI is overbought.
VIX also hitting trend line support:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43435204076&a=204018771
i’ll wait a bit before taking any new positions.
if the links don’t work:
1095.9 is the 200ma
1098.1 is 50ma
Finished rebuilding my put inventory at 110. If we keep on rising, I will go much slower on the overbuilding.
Hey Jeff, it looks like your hunch was much better than mine about today’s action. I really thought we would see something like this on Thursday or Friday. Only way it will fit in my plan is if we see a much larger sell off in the next 40 minutes. So…. come on sell off!
Nice sell off at the end, gives me some confidence of a big down day tomorrow. What are your thoughts old buddy?
I agree that tomorrow has a 70% bias to the downside, but I do not think it will be a big down day and I think Thursday will be an up day and maybe Friday will be a big down day. But I will want to see how big the drop is tomorrow is, before refining my prediction.
Makes sense to me Jeff. However I’m sticking with my thought about tomorrow being a big down day, if I’m wrong that will be 2 in a row
Like you, I also think Thursday may be up, and then Friday down. Thinking we close Friday at 1050 or even lower.
Hey GTROD:
Remember what I said about 1100 and 1050 on the SPX options last Friday when we close around the middle of that. I say we drift towards the 1100 into Thurs. UNLESS the big boys who control the bots want to screw everyone and we fall hard towards the 1050 area.
My TNA looking very good. Wish I had only covered half. but a profit is a profit.
Hey Jeff,
Sounds like a good analysis, thanks for that. Don’t kick yourself, it sounds like you took profits on several occasions the past few days, and I just did on a couple occasions, wishing I did more. So keep doing what your doing, taking profits is never a bad thing as you know.
A profit is a profit indeed. Will attempt to go with bigger plays as I’ve backtested an additional trigger that has improved my system. Although, I don’t know if OpEx week is the right time to do this.
GL to you tom.
Sounds good jdub, good luck to you as well. Catch you mid-late session
There is considerable resistance on the weekly chart at 1100.
Now trading with a short bias. The INDU & SPX have retraced 40% & 45% of their declines respectively so the majority of the upward correction from yesterday’s low at SPX 1069 should now be complete. At this stage I don’t see any absolutely compelling targets for this dead cat rally but if I had to select targets SPX 1099-1101 & 1105-1107 would be at the top of the list. Neither target is very far away from current levels. Most importantly however is that the most damaging part of the bear market in 2010 should follow the conclusion of this rally.
Keep dreaming the train to paradise is unstopable. Everyone thinks the market dives and it does the exact opposite.
dsavill,
You’re getting dangerously bullish, without evidence. Do you want to make money or just be bullish? I know you know about all the scams that are happening but not being cautious in this environment can really bite. I just hope that you’d hedge at least a little to protect your holdings.
I have been bullish with FAS since 17.40 and loving it. How is that for evidence? lol. I have my hedges and I am making money being bullish. I will let ya know when to play the bear side but look at the numbers the last month bro the trend is up. Five 200 point days up and 1 200 pt day down in the last 4-6 weeks. Do the math.
I’m glad you’re making money and it’s not my business how much money you’re making. With the bonds soaring the last 2-3 months it’s signaling another dip coming up. I guess your comments sound extremely bullish without us knowing that you’re hedged. I just wanted to get a sense for your view, thanks.
and so some of my comments are bullish so what? I call the market the way I see it and I have been pretty much right on. Read my posts that will give you my view. Play the trend my friend. Dip coming? Yea since Mar 9, 2009 that is all that has been painted. We all know the economy is in major trouble but it has been propped up and this so called “Dip” is way over due and this “Dip” is being used as a carrot so they can rip your heart out. Whenever it comes it will be more than a dip and until it ever gets here I will play the game with them.
long term vix is breaking below a trend line…
market hitting my trend line here. if it breaks north we’re going to see 1106, and maybe 1112
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p70168420216&a=160222837
bears need to pound it down. 1100 now, may be 1100 too soon.
look at that RSI, it has support also…
short term RSI is overbought a good amount again.
1099.3 is 50% retrace of the drop.
trend line sitting there and holding.
too much conflict. not willing to short yet, although it may be a very good test position. will wait a bit.
Rally as bears are squeezed
it’s very possible. market is very biased to the short side right now, and i don’t think it’s with good reason. it’s more panic bias based on one really strong drop. Major supports weren’t even taken out and all the sudden everyone is running to take huge portfolio short positions. Still a possibility of much more rising to come. We can rise to 1112 and still keep moving sideways without picking a major direction.
sorry, i didn’t mean the market was biased. i meant that traders were (market mentality wise).
i guess i sold a lot earlier than i had hoped. i was expecting more consolidation under the 200ma and 50ma with the 1090-1092 area. Instead we just got consistent rising. sold my calls too early and missed out on an additional minimum 10% profit.
Really wishing I had gone short the VIX this morning on that trend line break under $25
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p48802878954&a=204018771
market too overbought to buy that the 1100 is breaking solidly right away. might just sit out the rest of the day.
I’m looking at buying some Oct SPY 109 puts. Just a bit hesitant as the market looks very strong here. 110.70 is the previous high after the first gap down, I think that’s where it will top out before a second leg down.
i actually had my finger on the trigger on sept SPY puts, but I don’t like the long term RSI and long term VIX areas, which are leaning more bullish at the moment.
I would have sold at EOD and wouldn’t risk holding into tomorrow just in case. I think I will just see what action tomorrow morning brings and take an early lunch today instead.
Bought half the position now and if we rise to 110.70 I’ll buy the other half.
Hi, mind the gap
I think the days before Friday will be choppy. Not direction. And second leg down after OPEX.
I want to buy some put, too. 110.70 maybe touched at close.
holding into tomorrow ??
yeah, I’m not worried about time decay, that’s why I bought the Oct puts. I’m thinking the same, 2nd down leg starts next week. I may just trade intraday on the long side if I see something compeling, otherwise I’ll be adding to the puts on strength.
111.37-111.50 would close that gap up there so that’s the highest I see this rally going.
Feels great to be right about the markets.
Up, uo and away.
I’m still all long, only holding some vxx as insurance.
dsavill has had it right for a while now…
Strong open and away we go on the train to paradise.
AGU AGRIUM INC
Large Position
+33.81%
POT POTASH CORP OF SASKATCHEWAN INC CANADIAN LISTED
Largest Postion
+56.60%
TA TRANSALTA CORP
Medium Position
-6.13%
VXX BCS IPATH S&P 500 VIX SHORT
Small Position
-12.96%
very nice =)
thanks,
it was a long, dark road to get here.
i started investing seriously in ’07, birth by fire.
lots of good lessons though.
tshirt2,
This is very nice but you gotta take profits at some point, no?
i guess. do you think i should sell them now? (POT + AGU)?
i’m thinking there has to be other offers coming, 130 was a joke.
BHP was trying to pull a fast one, they will either bump it up or someone else will come in.
my thinking…130 is the starting point, not the end of this.
the only thing that is worrying me is my feeling that a fall drop is on the way.
seems like a lot of people are expecting that though…so it might not happen.
whatever, as i said on friday…i have cash waiting to go long if we ever get below 1000.
I would just have a stop somewhere below to protect your profits. Or maybe even take out half or all your principal.
If you think it may go higher use a trailing stop.
Welp my stop on my FAZ position managed not to trigger today. Guess the market will decide which way it really wants to go tomorrow. I am not buying the Bullish argument just yet. If we manage to gap higher at the open tomorrow I will put in a .25c trailing stop on my position. A gap lower tomorrow will have me watching and waiting for my XLF 13.92 target.
great day today. no positions into tomorrow. good luck!