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1:56pm
Like I mentioned earlier 109.20 was hit, and we did get some type of bounce. But i’m not a buyer of this bounce yet because we broke the 110.00 level which should have held if the bulls were still in control. I think shorting 109.00-109.20 is the way to go. I shorted the SPY at 109.98 and my stop is at 109.88, i’m hoping we move lower from here.
11:23am
Check out this video from Adam at INO, you can sign up for free to get updates on all the videos. Here’s the last one: http://www.ino.com/info/609/CD4204/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3
10:52am
As GS daily touches $150, it looks like a great retracement of a very important breakout (former resistance is support) but with the SPY breaking down under 109.85, if we do hit GS at 150 it might be worth to short on a breakdown of that level rather than by the bounce. But both can be played with stops:
10:15am
The fact that we are not bouncing off the 110.00 level and creating higher highs and higher lows is not a good sign. It looks like a break of the very strong 109.85-110.00 is imminent. Get ready to put on your short hats.
9:38am
SPY hitting up against the 110 level. Guys, if you’re a bull on this market, this is the ultimate place to be buying this sell off. This is the only place I think you should be buying the SPY. There will be some support at 109-109.15 as well, but at that point i wouldn’t be as bullish. So basically, 110 is the only retracement i want to be buying, and if it breaks today it’s over for the bulls. Here’s the 4 hour SPY chart:
The futures have been getting hammered the last couple of days…a chink in the armor. This still does not feel like a top. A top is when everyone is bullish and a break lower will have volume behind it. No volume lately. I could see a drop down to the 1060 area for gap fill and then an explode back higher for a reverse head and shoulders on the SPX. Perhaps the GDP numbers will be okay/revised higher, which will propel us higher. I would then see 1200 as the offical top this fall.
I beg to differ with your assessment about “No volume” on down days. The volume has consistently been anywhere from somewhat greater to substantially greater on nearly every single down day, versus rally day’s over the past couple months, in actuality.
Yes Volume is much more on Down days than up
Sure feels like a top is in, to me. The whole past week has been good downward action, and it should continue but faster and with deeper declines. Looking for under 10k on the DJIA by closing bell Friday.
Oh yes, let me beat you to the punch Jeffgrau before you reply to my post, a few hours from now:
“Yep, that goingtoretireone day is such an idiot that I’ll just use him as the great contrarian indicator he is once again, and add heavily to my long positions at the opening bell”
Jeff, that sounds great, please buy as many bullish stocks as possible at the opening bell, and don’t use any stop losses because who needs them, just do the exact opposite of what I say I feel is going to happen, and you’ll make out like a bandit, right?
In reality going long at the opening bell could spell disaster in light of what the world markets are doing as well as futures, so I hope you do not to it, as I don’t wish for anybody to lose money, even somebody who feels compelled to antagonize and ridicule me for absolutely no reason whatsoever.
Additionally as a swing trader, I’m up for the year although not by much, and most of my profits were made between April and late June, got killed since then for the most part. So using me as a contrarian indicator on a consistent basis would therefore leave you slightly in the red for the year old pal.
Sorry to everybody else for venting, but that should cover my venting needs for the summer
Good luck to everybody today!
You’re so close minded, you don’t even read my posts. I am a permabear with NO long positions in my trading account. I just use your posts to take some profits and buy back my short positions on the inevitable rise that follows. The fundamentals are extremely bearish, but your posting and some of the other dancing bears posts today are an extremely bullish indicator, so we shall see.
Yep, my post definitely looks like it was a bullish indicator for today, verrrrrrry bullish day we’re having old buddy.
Hey Goingto retire,
The fake train that was going up on low volume and bad news is getting de railed 
it’s done with 
I agree 100 % with you – The Top is in , or has been in since april 26 , We are going to hit new lows for this year within the next weeks ahead … The Real train to Paradise is going to hit new lows
Have you ever heard of Tom O’brien on TFNN .. He has been right on – He has a radio talk show Mon-Fri
4 pm 6 pm TFNN.COM
He’s been saying the Dollar will hit new highs / the Euro will go to new lows this year Below 115 – The market will tank
Have A Blessed day
Hey AAFLCB,
Thanks for the comment earlier today my friend, its kind of looking like you and I have thinking the right thing the past couple weeks, even though several others thought we were just nuts.
Yes Exactly …
I am with you 100% — the market is going towntown fast .. We may get some dead cat bounces -to trap more bulls
Have you ever heard of Tom Obrien –TFNN ?
Thanks
God Bless
Yep, for sure, I just hope the bull trapping bounces are small, and don’t last too long
No I haven’t heard of Tom O’Brien, but he sounds like a well informed guy. I’ll check him out at TFNN.COM.
Thanks for the tip my friend, meet you back here tomorrow, hopefully with more very big downward action in the markets for us to witness, and earn money from.
I am a good contrarian signal. Closed shorts @ loss on Friday pm and actually nibbled on a small long yesterday @ close. My long is very small ( it) and it was a breakout play – so I’m truly fine with the trade. The frustrating part was closing faz too early– but that beast was getting painful to hold. GLTA (except GS – lol. …God can do Gods work…he doesn’t need their help)
Did you seriously close a short in the months where the highest probability plays are short?
yes I did. Mentally, I was prepared to give back all my gains from my last FAZ trade. Once that was met, I bailed. Actually thinking of nibbling on a long…but I will wait.
The action is too significant not to take notice…I will probably get stopped out of my TNA and short VXX at the open for a small gain or neutral. The jpy/usd is about to make new lows and that is very significant since it smells as panic is in the air. I have dusted off my bear cap and set it next to me while I eat pop corn to figure out if this is a retrace or fuel for a higher move next week. I will be 100% cash for the time being and I will fire 25% at any move below 10250 with a strong bearish candle…I will fire 25% to the upside at any side of strength around this key resistance level…
THIS LOOKS LIKE REAL DEAL FOLKS. I TOLD YOU AUGUST/SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER IS BEARISH!!
I AM NOT LONG NOTHING!!
I got a margin call on one of my shorts today.. looks like it will finally pay off today YES.
FUTURES FUTURES FAIR VALUE (-11.75)
10644.25 10485.0 -133.00 10606.25 10485.0 -121.25
SAM WHERE ARE YOU:?
Guys can anyone explain this?
”The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 2.73 percent from 2.77 percent late Tuesday. Interest rates are often set based on the yield of 10-year Treasurys.”
The 10-year yield is at levels not touched since late March 2009 just weeks after recession worries sent the stock market to a 12-year low.
sounds like the rumors foating around the a few days agi about fnm and fre might have some truth….sounds like they are possibly pushing the rates down as low as they can to possibly mark down underwater or trouble housing loans and refinance the principle on these loans which includes the feds balance sheet…so more uncertainty what is happening and therefore down down down..which is fine with me and my underwater short
hey Gang….
Hope all is well.
I’m still holding my painful shorts…
Stii short 4K AMZN at $116.79 and short 2500 FSLR at $126.20………… Kinda confident that I’ll be OK but would definitly like to get your opinions on where to short more AMZN…………….been pretty quiet with trading as my stomach is burning all day thinking about my potential loses but i’m trying to be rational……
WOO and Idan…… Do you guys think that within the next 4-5 months I’ll be able to get out of AMZN trade with minimal loses around $116-120.00?
I would start selling some puts against your position.. lowers your avg. cost.
I’m going to have to agree with Zee.. it makes a lot of sense to sell puts with your position, that way you can hold it for longer, knowing that you won’t lose as much. You can sell the 115-120 (front month). That way, if you’re okay letting go at 115, you will actually be letting go at 113 (cost basis wise).
why is the vixx not spiking?
How can it spike before the options start to trade? I thought they were used to compute its value.
+1 on what jeffgrau said. Check pre-market VXX, it’s up over 4.3%.
yep..there it goes..sorry..i don’t trade options…lol…but makes sense now..thanks
Just broke 1100, 1090 on the way.
Hi,
tomorrow is down or up? If tomorrow is down hard again, then next Monday will be small green. If tomorrow is up a little, then next Monday will down hard.
What your short term view,
I have liquidated 25% of my short September positions. Bearish sentiment indicates a greater than 60% probability we are up for the rest of the day, but I doubt we end green, although that is possible.
Ì`m waiting for a retrace to short, I believe we`ll see 1075-1080 in the coming days.
ENOUGH~~~
THIS IS BEARISH MONTHS.. STOP WITH THE BULLISHNESS.
I am looking to get long either AAPL at 252 or BP 38.75. 1095 on SP500 is where I want to step in at
This is the last time I’m saying this.
Wait for a bottom , then pile in!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Midterm elections are going to be BADDDDDDDDDDD
long way down
Sorry you liquidated 25% of your positions so early. Perhaps you can stop using me as a contrarian indicator at this point, and either leave me alone completely, or direct friendly comments towards me.
OK, you’re no longer at 100%. However, I am not sorry I was disciplined to liquidate a certain percentage at pre-arranged levels. We will see if I can buy them back cheaper in the next few days. And if I can’t, the next posting will be a congratulations to you.
Jeffgrau,
Fair enough, and thanks for the comment.
DIE MARKET
Buy nflx…keep going and soon it will try to break 50ma for the 2nd time..
I will short more financial if dow bounce back to 130-150 range
It breaks 128…
dipped my toe on some AAPL at 253.7 and BP at 38.9
ah too aggressives, should have waited
I wouldn`t try to catch a falling knife right now.
Idan, woo what do you think shorting jpm? Or pickup faz ETF?
Thanks
JPM is definitely got serious problems, i think it is a longer term short, but i don’t know if it’s the best entry, the gap makes it very tough.. i’d wait for some type of bounce first.
Idan, Woo
Which would be the best short opportunities (very short term) once the $110 is officially broken?
thanks!
Short overvalued stocks.. chances are, the dow/s&p components are relatively fairly valued compared to some nasdaq high beta stocks.. you want to short weak companies, with low RS relative to the S&P.
Using a stock screener (that screens key financial ratios, such as cash ratios) can easily get you a list of 100-200 very good short candidates.. this is an approach I love to use.
I shorted JTX at 1.50.. XNN at 0.45.. TRMA at $2.50…. WWWW at $5.05.. they are overvalued companies.. and serve as a nice delta hedge to your overall portfolio.
Planning on buying some SPY or TNA (long) today. I believe there will be a large fall to come, but I also still believe most people will be long when it occurs, the MM’s love to f people. I will play this with a tighter stop than normal, and perhaps close some of position at the EOD.
Perhaps this is the indicator that short is the way to go?
GLTA.
or maybe not…this is a scary drop…… I understand no pain, no gain…..
Very short term bullish bias is indicated, but don’t put all of your eggs in one basket. True 99% of the time mm’s like to f**k people, but 1% of the time mm’s are f**ked.
agreed, definately not betting big, at least not for the next trading day or so.
drop a lil more, I wanna buy this dip…..
SPY 109 is on its way. I will close my SPY puts at that level.
So where is this train to paradise?
109.50-109.60 is the major battle ground.
The conductor had to make an emergency stop. He took a big dump in his “shorts”.
LOL
I have now liquidated 30% of my September puts. We seem to have broken down, so another 10% will get liquidated around 109, if we reach it. I’m glad the dancing bears are being paid to perform, although that rarely lasts. If we break below 109, my put liquidation will slow down.
Here is my cycles chart.. http://img833.imageshack.us/i/uuuh.png/
I’m still sitting in my long FAZ I bought @ 13.25. I think we are about done with the downward motion for today. Will maintain my position though as I want to see if the DJI cracks the 200 MA tomorrow or if we bounce back.
Chances are you took that position @ 13.25 to average down from an existing higher position. I wouldn’t get too excited with FAZ untill it starts to get to the 16 level. Remember this drop of 200pts is hardly anything compared to what the market has done the last month soaring +8% or so. Volume is extremely low and the key element as to this gap down is that dollar.
Not to rain on your parade, but if this bear’s soaring, it can wreck havoc the whole month of bulls in a few days or a week at the most. Crashing’s always furiously faster.
I didn’t average any position, $13.25 is my entry from last week. My target is XLF hitting $13.85 at which point I will set a trailing stop. I think it funny actually that you just naturally assume anyone trading FAZ must be underwater and averaging down.
Well excuse me! I think it is even funnier that you assume that I assume anyone trading FAZ must be under water. Notice I said “chances” and that meaning not necessarily you. GLTY and if you have a profit take it for that beast will rip your heart out quickly but hey don’t assume I am telling you how to trade.
AMD has collapsed.. I was going to re-enter long @7.50 but refrained because I told myself the bearish cycles will overpower the general market.. I want to go long AMD again at $6.25!!!! This time it will be HUGE..
Guys.. I hope everyone puts a bid for 500 shares of AMD at 6.25.. it will get hit this/next month and you’ll make an easy $500 when you flip it at $7.25 by Jan 2011!!! $6 IS HUGE HUGE HUGE SUPPORT.
If you are not bidding at least, minimum 100 shares on AMD at $6.00-$6.25.. you are not using TECHNICALS properly!! hop on board felllows!! you only nede $600 to play this one!!!
has anyone seen jimbho? hes done some really good calls lately! hes been sending me his emails.. he made a good call on a stock that dropped 50%..
Sounds like an advertising…lol…I was looking at shorting AMD but missed it yesterday. I`m not going long anything just yet. I can see it being oversold right now even but it needs to hit $6 first before any bounce.
In TNA – somewhat small 300 shs @ 38.3099
Planning on holding this for a little bit, and adding if S&P gets closer to 1084/1088
Woo was spot on about hitting the VIX TL today … the question is do we continue above … because that means the mkt has a lot more to fall …
here’s the chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p94787461628&a=204018771
We broke slightly north of it, and if we can sustain this, then we’re looking at more dropping to come and at least a retouch of the 50ma.
I was telling my subscribers that I REALLY REALLY wish I had listened to myself about this VIX rise, I could have have made a ridiculous amount in calls.
I held a small amount of TNA into today, and lost money on those at the $39 break. but it was a very small position for fun, and my 20% profit on a much larger position more than made up for the risk.
There’s good potential for a drop to 1088 for a trend line and 50ma/60min support hit. the 1090 is the 38% retrace of the drop.
sorry to clarify this statement:
“We broke slightly north of it, and if we can sustain this, then we’re looking at more dropping to come and at least a retouch of the 50ma.”
we broke north of the two VIX trend lines. If we sustain this break above the two VIX trend lines, then we’re looking at more dropping in the market to come, and at least a retouch of the VIX 50ma above here.
sorry that was a horrible sentence.
Ok – seems to be on the lines of what I thought …. 1088 is the 200 ma on the 60 min … looks like its holding …
Thanks for sharing the levels …
Also, VIX histogram finally turned up after days of positive div … something to keep in mind … plus the SPY 60 min his has major -ive divergence ….
S&P at 1090 and I booked HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE profit just now. Sold all my shorts and waiting for bounce to load them back in.
On Monday when a lot of people in the world did not know what is going on in this market I posted my chart at http://bigboysactionwallstreet.blogspot.com/
And I said EXACTLY what will happen next. Look at my yellow linne that said a HUGE drop is coming.
The interesting thing is that I said this several week ago that 1128 is a HUGE resistence.
Is there anybody here who wants to thank me for all my HUGE HUGE STRONG forecast? I said all there way before it happens. I always was accused of not posting chart to support my idea, now here is my chart , JUST LOOK AT
http://bigboysactionwallstreet.blogspot.com/
SWBB
Good call Sam …
Sam how high will we bounce before you jump back in on the short side 1100 S&P 1105 ????
Hi, Sam
I think some time frame should be added to your chart, and some key point marked in it. It will be more friendly to read.
“Big Boys Action” Really? REALLY?
Please accept my humble gratitude, anointed one!
Meant for Sam….see #26!
Me too, I am amazed at your brilliance Sam. We are still waiting for you to post one trade you made before you gloat how truly amazing you are — but of course you can’t waste your time with such trivial nonsense when you need to rub elbows with so many big boys.
Oh he’s rubbing something with the big boys, just not elbows!
Short term the charts are starting to setup some divergence … so if we get one more low past the current low. then get out of shorts on the index … and wait for a bounce …. or play the bounce if you are a day trader …
we have a mini div on the 5 min but the 10 min may also want to form one … I would watch for a close on 10 min above 109.61 – 109.68 ..
As expected a short move above to try and fake out above 109.61 …. however I am expecting one more push low … 109-109.20 … should do it …. then bounce …
Looks like we are getting it AH … however be careful – there should be a bounce … if we gap down tomm, I would get out of short and go long for a nice bounce ..
Justbreal – AMZN is holding Woo’s trendline … so be careful if it holds into the close as it could be part of a W4 with one more push up to come after that …
I know but at this level its a huge lose ( could get bigger) and i might as well sit tight
what do you think?
Look at Zee / Idan’s suggestion above …
Woo – what do you think ?
We’re close enough to the 50 MA (1088) so I sold the 1/2 short position. I am looking to buy back this position on the retrace which I think will be in the 1103-1108 range if the low holds. I am holding on to my other 1/2 position @1125 short from yesterday.
finally atleast my FSLR short at $126.20 is looking good and i’m holding tight
Dsavill,
can’t wait until this train derails……………
Hehe our conductor has it on one rail right now and if he hits a strong gust look out.
If the report on the treasury buget is worse than expect whic I believe it will be watch the market go down -300 plus points. JMHO
budget*
when is this repost dsavill ?
Right here http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/
Thanks
Ok it came in right on the edge of the consensus -165.0 B. Conductor gasps with a sigh of relief.
Alrighty now time for another miraculous comeback all the news is out for today.
If SPX can’t break 1088 look for a bounce back. If DXY breaks above 82.39 market will sell off even more.
yesh, NFLX green
my mistake, not green, sry
perhaps I wasnt wrong, it keeps flipping red / greeen
now the bugger is moving again, this one is amazing….
Have been looking for the top near SPX 1130 or possibly as high as the INDU magnet at 10787 with the actual highs finally terminating at 1129 and 10719 … close enough. Thereafter expecting a wave 3 down that should “gap down for several days in succession” in the proper tradition of wave 3s … well we’ve got 2 days in a row so far so that seems pretty much made to measure as well.
Looking at numerous charts one can see leading diagnals and ascending wedges almost across the board. These are termination patterns and have been brewing for a week or more on some charts. This adds more weight to the argument that a significant top has been put in.
Wave 1 declined 209 SPX points from 1219 to 1010. Wave 3, and the market action of the last 48 hours is displaying the hallmarks of a wave 3, should generally be greater in size that wave 1. So the well-practiced activity since the March 2009 lows of buying the dips may not work so well for a little while longer yet. Easier money should be expected by shorting any strength or, if you’re already short, “be right and sit tight” for several more weeks.
There’s a SPX magnet at 898 and trendline support around 875. A wave 3 should reach AT LEAST down to this area and could easily go significantly lower still.
About the only bullish thing that I can really think of, and it’s not immaterial, is that the market does not have much of a track record of declining significantly heading into an election season … something to keep in mind.
For now the magnet at 1093 has held up proceedings. We need to remember a lot of volume has gone through in the 1090-1093 area in the last 3 months and many will still be holding therefore it should not be unexpected that some support should be garnered here. Below this area is the INDU magnet at 10323. This level looks good for some sort of bounce as it corresponds well with a material trendline. If the market does not make some sort of retracement from SPX 1093 then expect one from INDU 10323. But remember, rallies within a wave 3 down need to be shorted.
Roo – is this from someone or your own post ?
Nice post btw
Did you see the last 2 bearish Hangman candlesticks reversal pattern formed during this uptrend,
Monday’s close = 100% short.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
vn post. thx
Thanks Roo,
I appreciate your post –
I agree whole heartedly .. As we are going downdtown
Have a Blessed Day
mark
I honestly think the market will make a big recovery by EOD. MM’s love playing on traders’ emotions.
i think your train is stop somewhere and going different direction now.
Conductor has pulled it into the rest area again.
added 50 shs nflx. 126.71
(long)
wow. I am out earlier – gain profit…….will wait where the market is going..
Sold the SPY puts. I believe we`ll get a bounce to test 110 tomorrow. I may buy a small amount of calls today just before the close.
Why you think spy will bounce? It looks more down next week.
Just a short term bounce. It was furious selling today. I wouldn’t buy SPY just individual stocks that look stronger than the market. See my post below #47.
The S&P 500 testing the 1088 support again. Tagging the lower boundary of the high low price channel.
Rise to put in another lower high.
idan, what do you think about nflx? good entry to start shorting? the stock is rocketing 30 pts within 2 weeks and going overvalued.
I would not short it just yet… wait and see what happens.. this could go to $140 and you can get screwed.. wait for some topping indicator, or some head and shoulders formation to short first.
added a touch more tna long….hopefully not sorry, but just 50 more shrs to average down a bit.
Excellent day so far for us deserving bears. I’m actually finally a head on half my positions for the first time in a while, and just took profits on 10% of them, but will hold the rest into tomorrow, with stop’s set on all.
Love to see a further sell off into the close today, and that’s what I expect we’ll see.
Good luck to everybody, I’m thinking a big down leg is upon us for the rest of the summer and more. With some whipsaws of course.
DOW IS REALLY REALLY REALLY CRASHING TODAY….LOOK OUT BELOW
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sO_QntXc-c4
Roo,
Awesome video my friend, made me laugh. Thanks much, and thanks for the great TA you provided a little earlier today.
meant to say ahead not a head.
Not even a .30 cent bounce off the 50ma – where was all this selling presure yesterday????
Positive Div on RSI and Stoch on TCK.B.TO, trading above 50 MA on the 30. Divergence is on both 5 and 30 min charts has been reliable in the past. There is almost always a higher open after a major distribution day. So I’ll probably be selling tomorrow after open.
Bought Sep 35 calls.
I am up to 40% liquidation, my put options scheduled to sell at 109.05 just went. Now my liquidation rate slows if we continue down tomorrow.
anyone doing anything with CSCO? just reported so so numbers and is down 7% DougKass just tweeted he is in at 22.5
hilarious… I just checked my acct and i noticed my AAPL limit order expired, and I was like WTF? so i looked at it and it said your limit order at 238.7 expired. Thank god for my “fat fingers” thought i bought it at 253.7
2,250 @ 21.80. I have faith in Dougy Kass.
Here is something that usually doesn’t happen, the after hours is selling off even more. Tomorrow should be an interesting day. As I said yesterday once the market digests that the FED made a major blunder the market will tank.
Refer to post #26 on 8/10/10.