1:08pm
Idan buys August CALL BA options, planning to hold them for a short while. Maybe have them roll over to September on a break of $70.
1:02pm
Ford seems to be getting stronger, with a high base like the one it has been forming over the last 7-10 trading days right at $13 resistance, it is fair to assume that it’s next move is up. For those who want to wait and only play the breakout, I’d wait for 13.15 to break.
11:26am
YONG from the Alerts & Analytics Service keeps rallying! Now up more than 7% since it was last bought and a stop securing over 4% at 8.67! If you haven’t subscribed yet, check it out!
11:06am
AMZN has fallen back down after it almost broke out of it’s 129+ resistance, which could have been very strong for the stock. That said, it makes sense for it to fall to around the 125-126 area before shooting back up. Ultimately this stock went from being the best short, to one of the strongest stocks. I’m a buyer on a dip:
10:58am
SPY still remains strong, forming higher lows and potentially a higher high if you exclude the opening high. I can’t be short this type of market, i’m on the sidelines, looking for opportunities to go long oversold stocks. That’s why FocalEquity’s Alerts & Analytics service is doing well right now.
10:53am
Find out which stock Idan went long today for the hopes of getting 15-20% returns in the next 2 weeks, click here.
10:30am – Poll of the day!
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10:24am
GE 4 hours showing us the same pattern that hasn’t broken yet. I urge people to try and play the inverse H&S formation if GE breaks out of 16.50 finally.
12:01am
After friday’s staggering come back in the markets, the indexes ended their week in the green territory. This could mean that we have some more room up to go. The SPY definitely shows that while we have some resistance at 113-113.20, the 61.8% retrace is all the way up in the 114, and an ABC pattern that we expect should move us all the way up to 114.6-114.8.
But the Dow Jones looks like it’s further in the upward cycle and might need to pull back soon. While there is still a chance for the Dow Jones to need to rally to a 70.7% retracement (at 10780) first before falling back down, the MACD on all indexes is extremely overbought.
The picture is uncertain, but i have to remain bullish unless 109.85 breaks on the SPY… that’s the level i need to see break first.
Here’s the Dow Jones Daily:
There isn’t too much data coming out tomorrow except for bill auctions.
SI
Short limit order 104.75.
Playing a $1 scalp intraday on 100 shares..
reasoning: long-term resistance lies in $100-105 area
also SI is at new 52-week highs.. sellers will be anxious to take $ off the table.
SWSI
It’s being bought out for $22.12 in cash.. it’s trading premarket right now in the $21.90-21.95 range.. Pretty much a 20 cent arbitrage opportunity…
I took 1000 shares at 21.92 for a quick 8 cent scalp for the day.
What really happened is that I shorted 1000 @ 21.95.. only to read yahoo news that it was being bought out..
..
I quickly covered at a HEARTBEAT at a $-56 loss.. but IB was not taking my order and filled me an extra 1000 shares at 21.92 haha.. just got out now at 22.01.. up $126 net.. coulda held to 22.10-22.12.. but then each cent gets more and more risky
I find that sometimes Elliott waves are distrupted by major political moves. Looking at the markets, I was starting to get quite bearish as I saw a double top around 1120 to 1125. But, with all the noise about another round of quantitative easing, the dollar is not strengthening, as one would expect, when the market falls. This makes the commodities strong and distorts the wave patterns.
I think we will get more clarity on Tuesday. That would be a time to place major trades – either bullish or bearish, based on fed’s actions
On friday I fired another 25% on TNA and short VXX. Holding 50% and I was rewarded with the late rally in the afternoon that surprised many. You see we are in between key levels 10350 and 11200. Unless we get a nuclear bomb I do not think we will break 10350. So that only means 11200!! for a double top. I have been writing this for like 1 month now. You should buy any dip from this point forward or else!. Now when do we get to 11000s?. Believe it or not it would be very soon according to my estimations. We should be there by end of next week coinciding with option expiration. What happens at 11200? I wish I knew, but most likely we sell off and try again. If we break the double top the stampede of bulls will be unstoppable and that is when I will start considering going short!!!!!!. My two cents…..
JROD
WAYYY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.
I like share ratios > 10.. NOW is the time to GAMBLE.
I’ve switched to canadian equities until midterm elections are finished..
I tend to agree with you. I closed my TZA (3X Triple Short Russell)position and have TC longs that I am keeping. I think we will know more by Wednesday morning as to whcih way the market is going to go.
JRod, the fed response will cause a short term rally of .75-2.0% followed by a similar decline on the day
following the fed announ’t.
Never short a dull market. TZA looks like a great short for the hardy of heart, intraday volatility eats these
tips. In a dull market a short of a compound short is usually safe.
BTW, what happened to the regular chaps that posted? have they moved along to another site or is it
just summer holidays? Used to have a few traders here based in EU, any idea whence they have gone?
This site/blog has been short bias for a long time. I would assume that many of the usual bloggers or traders that have stubbornly shorted eventually ran out of money. That could explain why you do not see as many posts. I have switched my hat between bear and bull and that is why I continue to post…
.
hi idan
tell me short term view of goog?
Goog is still in the positive, i think it moves higher unless 499 is broken to the downside again.
thanks
LAST TRADE OF THE DAY
3,000 UUU.TO SHORT @2.90.
Going for 5-7 cent scalp, no stops yet.. trying to create a hedging position which I cannot say since volume is so light on cad markets.
Reason: Earnings gap up.. but THEY will be profit takers coming in.. this beast is up almost 50% since last month.. it’s hard to want this stock at $2.90 now.. its been trading in the $2-3 range forever.. stops would be at $3.. or close short by EOD… i want to see price action before i place my stop though..
Note: I’m already up for the day.. this is a risky play and the risk/reward ratio is only 30-40% win.
good day.
not liking this trade at all.. grr.. shoulda waited for 2.94 to trade.. damn.. still.. id like to see what happens..
Idan, Woo
Of the 3 following stocks which one do you like technically that will increase by at least 3% in the short term
GE
GOOG
GS
thanks!
GE would be the best candidate if it breaks 16.50. But right now it’s still GOOG.
I think BP and the gulf associates have the best upside? Away from glare of pulbicity?
well BP wasn’t really an option, but if you put BP in the mix, BP could be one too. But if that cemented well blows again, it’s over for BP.
List your favorite shorts to take today, and your favorite longs!
I want to stay away from shorts, but if i had to short some stock, it would either be TIE or some other stocks i mention in my Alerts & analytics.
I like going long YONG, WATG, and GE if it breaks 16.50
I am short the 20 year treasury using TBT any thoughts on that play riight now Idan ??? Thanks
You might be right in the short term, but i dunno if i want to be short such an oversold ETF in the longterm, it might get a bounce very soon.
I would becareful with GE: http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2010/08/09/new-york-attorney-general-to-investigate-general-electric-co-nyse-ge%E2%80%99s-carecredit/
Hello, Hope everyone had a great weekend. I bought DGI at 10:45 today 10K shares @ 31.26 Hoping to scalp .50 off it and sell it for 31.76 but it looks like its 1st Resistance Point is 31.61 Maybe the momentum of the stock can overcome the resistance. They just signed a $3.55 Billion dollar deal with NGA so everybody is stoked about that.
Good article on the dollar and it’s impact on bonds
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2195…n?source=yahoo
Hope everyone is doing well and had a great weekend.
I’m still holding my positions……………. short 4K AMZN at $116.79 and short 2500 FSLR at $126.20
in a world of pain with SCAMAZON but trying not to get too emotional………………….
It seems like the markets are never coming down again but I’m staying the course (for now)
Still have alot of dry powder that i will use to bring my cost higher on AMZN…………..i will not start any new positions until I have sorted out my AMZN position ………………….
GL to all
Anyone looking into CBOE for a trade or a hold? down huge since it came out public a few weeks ago! TIA
Sold my DGI for $31.76 Time to hit the gym. Good luck everybody!
BA is still a buy in my books, i’m really hoping it breaks $70, but i’m willing to buy it here, as long as the prior low is not broken.
What’s your take on UNG IDan? It has taken a big hit low 7.23 and still seems like it might drop even more.
very simple, i was very close to buying it at $8.30 when it was there (waiting for a breakout). It topped RIGHT at $8.30, and therefore i never got in it. I don’t think i can trade it unless it is back above $8.30. That simple.
So picking it up here where it is, is not worth the risk then, is what you are saying.
The only reason why i was interested in UNG in the first place was because it looked like it was potentially bottoming out… it was very oversold, maybe fundamentally too, but without a clear bottom, there’s no reason to be bullish on a falling knife.
Sold September 40/42 vertical put spreads on HP at .64 this morning. The market always overreacts to these kinds of things.
Hi, Idan
Wynn seems one wave down soon, could you tell me your short term view about wynn? Thanks
WYNN might find some resistance around the 94 area, but ultimately it still looks like a strong stock, for me to believe it’s overbought and needs to really go down it’s going to have to be in the 105-110s.
Matt Simmons “passed away suddenly” yesterday. Wow, the conspiracy theories are going to have a field day with this
And, whom might he be?
richard simmons fat relative? Just wondering….not the peak oil guy is it? Peak guy was in his
30′s and just finished saying the gulf disaster would never be capped?
Prophets of doom are a dime a dozen but right now they are dying off.
Quick, someone tell Sam/Zee to apply for this guys job! j/k.
Yup an oil advocate: http://www.cnbc.com/id/38624677/
Jumped in to BP small play 100@ $40.85
Still holding tight to my shorts and now getting slaughtered. Still confident about a reversal very soon however, but will sell for a loss if we hit 1150 on the SPX. Looking for a big leg down to begin tomorrow.
Looking for great profits for my portfolio by the end of the month.
Now back to a great dinner of peanut butter and jelly