Idan Koren:
2:26pm
GE 4 hours chart shows that 16.50 is an incredibly important level to break, showing a very nice inverse H&S formation that is huge. If we do get a break of $16.50 i think GE becomes a buy, i think that you can go long on any push up above 16.50 as long as you have a stop right underneath.
2:19pm
I actually got stopped out of my GOOG august puts, but i still think GOOG has more room to go as long as it doesn’t fall under 503.75.
12:13pm
GOOG 1 minute showing a sign of a potential H&S formation, if we break down the $503.75 level I expect google to at least retrace a bit, towards the 500-501 level. My stops on my Aug Calls of GOOG are right below that level.. we’ll see where we go!
11:03am
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One of the trades we made yesterday, was go LONG a stock called YONG. Based on it’s very oversold conditions and it’s technical breakouts we believe this stock can go higher. Our full explanation is given in our emails. But here’s the inverse H&S formation that YONG had at $8.40, we are now up over 2% and think this one can go much higher!
10:31am
Market continues to show incredible strength, even though the SPY opened down on horrible jobless claims, it seems like the SPY is about to fill this gap, and might go shoot higher. There’s still no reason to be bearish on the market yet. I would like to see the 109.85 level break before i start shorting things.
Woo:
3:16 am
Here’s my updated GOOG chart for those who entered long trades with Idan (congrats!).
You can see that we hit a descending trend line which was our peak today. If we don’t break out at the open, we’ll most likely see a drop for the day, and probably won’t break out all day. The RSI also hit resistance, which also means that if we don’t break out at open, we’re going to see a fairly strong down day or two. We could possibly test the sub 500 trend line below, so it’s wise to have that stop above to lock in profits if the break out doesn’t occur at open. If for any reason we do head down to the high 400s level, I’m thinking that double trend line support is going to play a major role for a stronger bounce. However, I would have tight stops there because a break of those two trend lines is going to mean a retest of the low 480s where the major fib retrace and 50ma are sitting. If we break north above 508.60s I’ll take a strong long position, I may consider a short/put position at open if the break isn’t there.
Idan:
12:00am
Google yesterday shot up more than 3.3%, with my options going up almost 3 fold in one day (170%++). While i still believe google might want to reach 520 before really pulling back, i have put my stops around the $501.30 level, and will only take the trade off if we reach 520 or hit the stop.
As far as the SPY goes, I don’t see any reason why the SPY should fall at this point in time. I think the SPY still has another 1-2% to the upside potentially before it gets a severe hit. This gives me confidence that the trades i made today for Alerts & Analytics should do well.
Here’s the SPY daily explaining the most bearish Elliott Wave Theory analysis that you could make on this rally. And until we break 115 to the upside, we won’t know if we break to new highs or not. Therefore i remain bullish until 114-115, and will look to add some short hedges at that point.
While my put inventory acquisition and promotion plan is based on us ultimately hitting 115, the last two days were listless with no levels reached to buy or sell. I expect the same will be true for today. Volume has been too light to bet the farm on EW wave 2, although it should be considered more probablethan other scenerios. Perhaps tomorrow, after the jobs report we will get more clarity. If it is good, EW wave 2 is very probable. but if it is bad, I don’t see this bad news getting us to 115, unlike other bad news.
That is why I say bad news is contstrued as good and good news is looked at as better. The unemployment numbers came in worse than expected but they are spinning it as really not that bad. I guarantee if it was even 1 job better than expected the market would rally bigtime. Look for the market to gap down out of the box but by the EOD it will be flat to green. JMHO
On the SPY 112 is pretty good support, if that breaks 111.50 is gap support and I highly doubt that will break today, but if it does then 110.80 is next.
BMO Capital Markets:
Another reasonably positive day for stocks with internal breadth data confirming price strength. (3:1 advancing stocks to declining stocks on the
NYSE, 2:1 up volume to down volume) As of this morning, all of the major averages are now at/near key resistance levels. And, while short-term (daily)
breadth and momentum gauges are all still positive, many of them are nearing overbought levels, and in some cases short-term negative
divergences are evident. This rally appears to be running on fumes too, since NYSE Composite volume contracted once again which was the fourth
day in a row that it ended up well below its 10-day moving average.
Seasonally, this is also a time of the year where returns are generally flat and volume dries up for the next few weeks as part of the usual “Summer
doldrums.” Based on this, we would not be surprised if the markets spent the next 2-3 weeks consolidating the big gains made during the month of
July. Or, more realistically, undergoing a short-term pullback that would likely be a result of a lack of bids where stocks drift lower. Such a pullback
would likely be no worse than a partial retracement of the rally since the beginning of July. But, with the intermediate-term structure continuing to
improve – rising bullish sentiment, new buy signals in breadth models, weekly momentum models turning positive again for the first time since
early 2010, and international markets also improving – we continue to recommend accumulating stocks in anticipation of a new rally getting
underway later in Q3 that could stretch into the end of the year, and perhaps into 2011.
I’m long in FAZ @ 13.25 pre market this mornin.
rumor floating around of fannie/freddie loan forgiveness bailout:
http://blogs.reuters.com/james-pethokoukis/2010/08/05/an-august-surprise-from-obama/
This does not surprise me at all. I made a coment yesterday about until the jobs and housing come back there will be no recovery. Well TV president is desperate and will do anything and everything to save this economy. Hence the train to paradise will be unstopable. Watch and see be long be stong and follow the trend eventhough it is manipulated. The idea is to make money and logic is not in the equation as far as what the real truth is.
STRONG even.
Since over 75% of the populatiion will be hurt by such government theft, I do not think they will do it. The only way it will help the Democrats in the eletion is because it will cause Republican votes to be split between the far right and the far far right. Such a move would cause violence on the floor of Congress itself, not to mention the rebellion in the streets, the tax strikes and a probable dissolution of the existing government of the United States through revolution or tyranny. When such foolishness is put foward as a last hope, even Democrats will realize that it is time to take the pain. The time for Dow 1000 is now, and we can only pray that the politicians get the message.
hey gang,
needed to walk away from my screens yesterday as i believe i needed to get my thought and strategies straight. Although in immense pain from my prior positions and still holding ( AMZN and FSLR short),I have decided to stay the course. I know that it may get worst for a bit but i am confident that i will be right (and praying). still have about $500k dry powder that I will not use unless we reach 1250-1300 on the S&P but i will only use that if S&P reaches that level within the next two or three weeks.
Woo and Idan and Dsavill you guys have been right all along but something is not making sense and my trading style and strategy needs a major tune up ( more like my brain needs a tune up)
I’m trying not to get emotional about this but I have alot at stake …………….so hard………. but I will report anything I do as far as new positions to the board……
Wish you all lots of luck ……………………
so surprised that Sam , Zee or Exaltdanger or whatever he/she calls himself hasn’t put up a post today so far……………
jusbreal, et al,
it’s been a long journey since that flash crash.. where I could of owed my broker $1M as I was long on margin ..about 500k on stocks, and 1.5M in options.. I got out in time.. on may 5th with a 3% portfolio drawdown.. but I kept 5% short puts which just ripped my earnings..as I got executed at market at the damn bottom (1060 spx).. I was short 130 contracts PUTS XOM @ $65.. got executed at $2. on may 6th.
NOT bad considering XOM went to trade at $55.
tootles.
High base formation has led to downside since last year. Dont knw how its gonna play this time?
Sam said they were all going on vaca for a few days…
lol, another way to show they are all the same person. While their analysis may be correct at times (even more times than not) and following Big Boy’s does make sense, just the fact that exalt posts something and then Zee praises his other id’s call is enough to show they are up to no good at best.
Still holding FAZ, in pain, but surprised that losses are less than I anticipated.
“They” do not bother me all that much…There are a few guys on here that I like to read, other than that I just ignore most posts….I am in heavy on TNA at 44.50….Trading TNA just about everyday over the let week or two.
I am registered as zee at work, exalted at home.
Woo has already cleared up that I am not SAM.
This is all 2 funny that everyone hates Sam, and my character in real life is to back up the people who gets bullied =) .. But the bully is usually the one who is motivated to make $$$$$$
Keep bullying SAM, and watch out.. the BB might protect him.. haha.
It’s all fun.
Robert, I have NEVER praised my own post. I am childish in a lot of times, but NEVER do I praise myself.. lmao.. I praise SAM because it’s the funny thing to do.
K, if I am incorrect, I am sorry. It’s my recollection, and I could check the archiives, but not worth the time.
you are such a bad liar zee, you can fool them but not me…whatever though, i’m making to much money to care at this point!
AGU + POT, I TOLD YOU SO.
Bought some Oct AGU puts. Extremely overbought, should correct to 65ish.
Interesting, there is definitely a lower high right now.
on the Canadian chart of AGU, $70 was previous resistance and support on the previous leg up and down as well. So I think we should get a move south be it temporary.
USD/CAD – I took a very small bullish position in this currency as support lies at 1.00; however, with the markets in the middle of my imaginary pivot points (1000,1200), and since my strategy is to profit on extreme price movements, I have no reason to trade these markets as risk/reward is not in my favour.
-Also the cycles are really confusing. 1-YEAR CYCLE should be making a bottom, 2-year presidential cycle should be making a bottom.. but the 6-week cycle should be making a top..when there’s smoke there’s fire..
- I would advise everyone to scale down their trading positions to 25-50% for august (unless you are trading intraday)..
- My trades for AUGUST? Nothing really.. collecting a bit of premiums here and there.. a couple of scalps here and there.. you know how we big boys do [lol]!
My real advice is to keep cash handy to buy some calls if the market gets low enough.. there’s no way the market is going to fall post october.. so hope for a -1000pt dow correction now.. or else we’ll end the year dow 12000.
Neg divergence on SPY 5 min Stoch, would love to see that gap filled.
The one down below of course.
That 112.20 seems like really strong trendline support going back 6 months or so. If that gap fills, my bet is that it would not trade through it but rather gap below and go. Maybe
Friday with bad jobs number.
I don’t really see the SPY losing too much ground today.. so far so good for the bulls.
I do find it interesting that you have the same IP address at work and home….need a break from work…..
I am registered as zee at work, exalted at home.
Woo has already cleared up that I am not SAM.
This is all 2 funny that everyone hates Sam, and my character in real life is to back up the people who gets bullied =) .. But the bully is usually the one who is motivated to make $$$$$$
Keep bullying SAM, and watch out.. the BB might protect him.. haha.
It’s all fun.
Idan, your thoughts on NFLX? Thanks.
NFLX could be a nice short at the 110 level.. so far it looks very strong and poised to go higher. But 110 could be the best level to short. If it breaks through 110 i think it goes much higher again.
Thanks Idan.
looks like goog bounced perfectly off the 508.6 level. cashed in a small put position with trailing stops. sitting out for now, might consider a long position now.
if we can’t get some more bullish action and go green into closing on goog, it’s probably more of a bearish sign short term and we’ll remain in that wedge that i showed in the chart in the original post above.
hope some of you followed me on POT and AGU.
best trade of the year, and easiest…as i said b4, i was never in doubt.
lol. very nice =)
Good call tshirt, I missed the upside on AGU. Now I’ve bought some puts on it because I believe it’s very over bought.
What’s the level you would sell at? I don’t see it going too much more than $71 in the short term.
i think the move is pretty much over in agu…this morning looks like a blow off top.
might hold pot for a bit longer.
i really should sell, don’t want to be greedy.
Anyone follow NIV. could be breaking out.
FAZ looking to get a higher high on the 5min. If it can break that look for it to get in the high 13′s possibly touching 14. JMHO
Article on the mortgage forgiveness rumors dsavil spoke of earlier….. http://blogs.reuters.com/drudge.html
If this happens, I believe hard working americans who pay their mortgages will be upset (myself included). I THOUGHT the people who previously believed this would happen were not in touch with reality, now I am wondering if I was out of touch. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P36x8rTb3jI
Reminds me of the cool Ally commercial campaign (example): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qb0vquRcys
Nice for those who bought during the boom … they build as much equity as those who bought before … higher taxes may be coming sooner than we think …
good behavior never pays…that is the lesson.
Rick Santelli meltdown pt.2 on the way, lol.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQQfzXQ6UjA
Idan , what do you think about YRCW?
they came out with good earnings and have come down about 40% since then….. is it a buy here as i cant see anything on the charts? TIA
You should look at the 1 minute… if it breaks 0.295, it might be a short term buy, but i don’t like penny stocks cuz they are harder to read and your stops are going to be like 10-20% away. But if you can get it at 0.30 that’s alright.
i kind of want to buy calls into DIS earnings. they charge an arm and a leg for disneyland and there are still way too many people there whenever i go…
Haha woo – trust the charts … what are they saying
haha, that’s why i ddin’t pull the trigger. i’ll be drafting a dis chart tonight though.
AGU.TO bounced off of $68 support, sold my puts for a nice profit. I’ll buy them back if we move higher which looks like we will. Still holding SPY puts.
Anyone know what’s up with $RINO? It soared mid day but I can’t see any news on it.
Thanks!
Ok, gap filled on the SPY from this morning, we go back down now or what? i just don’t see how SPY can go to 115 without a backtest. Hey I’ve been wrong before though.
Sold the SPY puts for a small loss, today overall was a good day with profit from AGU. Also bought AGU Oct Puts $66, more out of money.
What do u think about news tomorrow?
Most likely what I said on post #1 today. Will manipulate numbers will be revised next week.The anticipation of bad numbers(usually opposite what you think happens) market gaps down a bit and then the miraculous comeback and ends green. Be long be strong you have the TV president as your conductor on the train to paradise.
my comments are blocked
oh nvm, now it’s working =/