1:33pm
Stress Test: How to Find the Safest Banks in the U.S. and Abroad
By Elliott Wave International
Banks of all sizes are riskier than they used to be (think about portfolios stuffed with derivatives, emerging market debt and non-performing commercial loans), so it makes good sense to have your own personal stress test to find out which you can trust. This special report gives you what you need to know — plus a list of the Top 100 Safest Banks in the U.S. Read more.
11:02am
After hitting resistance earlier today, the SPY is forming inverse H&S formation with a neckline at 112.50, a break of 112.27, would nullify this bottoming formation on the 1 minute:
10:52am
GOOG position up already 73%… i’m raising my stops here to at least $4 a contract for the $510 strike august. GOOG will probably hit 505 before it find any strong resistance, but i think it might rally all the way up into the 518-520 range.
SPY hasn’t been doing much, but i still favor the upside in the short term.
10:17am
We’re back in the game with GOOG today… as mentioned yesterday, i bought those Aug Calls, now i’m raising my stops to a profitable position. There was a clear inverse H&S on the hourly/daily and we got the set-up for the break yesterday, and today we have the break.
The picks from the subscription service has been taking a beating.
On the verge of unsubscribing and going with the leveraged ETF Pro
But I said this before only to have FE’s picks completely reverse and become profit
I’ll be patient.
which stocks are you in.. cuz we only had 3 positions left + I just added 2 more.
I do have the 3 and added 2 today too.
I think it’s just H** that’s been hurting the portfolio.
Go to yahoo.com/finance homepage, such manipulation in the futures.
+1000 up day is not surprising.. I guess they are trying to shock us like horror films to prepare us for intraday-1000 point range in the s&p
http://yfrog.com/b8illuminatiyj
BS.
BAD NEWS, BAD NEWS,
I will not post the rest of this week as I will be traveling,
GOOD NEWS, GOOD NEWS
I will back next week
My trade idea
I would buy AMZN October puts. I beleive the max AMZN could go up is 126 which is 200MA then a HUGE drop should come. The chance that AMZN go up above 126 instead of dropping below 100 is very low BUT if big boys decided to do that, NO PROBLEM I will triple my puts when it gets to 150, BUT as I said the chance is very low and I expect this to drop HUGE HUGE HUGE
I don’t mean to rub it in, but AMZN is now above $126. good time to go for more puts?
BAD NEWS, BAD NEWS,
None.. I make $ all the time..
GOOD NEWS, GOOD NEWS
I am long gold miners, and they are opening up 2% today. woot.. one of them I own is AEM!! yahoo!
My trade idea
Hoping AMD trades again at $7.15-7.25.. so I can pick them up CHEAP CHEEAP CHEAP!!
Zee – keep your own style – with analysis and details works much better …
With ADP numbers coming in better than expected(imagine that lol) futures make and abrupt 180 turn positive. I expect The ISM numbers likewise will be better than expected. Look for market to bounce as the train to paradise continues it’s unstoplable run. Remember bad news is good and good news is better. Follow the trend and the trend is up up and away. Will be arriving to the high 1130′s shortly. Have a nice day.
Just as I anticipated as the train keeps a chuggin up up and away! All aboard on the train to paradise.
SPX broke above the upper trendline of the triangle that Idan drew yesterday … so let’s see if it holds if tested.
testing and …..
… failing
i mentioned EEE yesterday and its ripping up right now.
getting killed on my amzn short and feeling really stupid…….. but hey thats the way it is and I really need to think if I should take loses here and move on and try it another day again.
Still holding my FSLR short ……………….. this is the next one to screw me…… go figure…………..
I have been saying for many days this is NOT the market to short but you keep doing it. You are best to walk away and take a break unless of course you want to be a glutton for punishment and continue to keep shorting this market.
I really need to stay away from these monitors and get my head together again and then try it again.
I feel as i’m making mistakes that I could omit but hey hind sight is always 20/20
AMZN is close to topping out, IMO. It`s gone over $125 but between here and 128 there are a number of cluttered resistance lines. I`m thinking this market will have a short term top. The Rydex index shows way too many people are bullish so we need a shake out. Not sure if you`re holding put options or just shares short. If it`s just shares then you don`t have to worry about time decay.
True, the 200SMA was a stop in July and there is the cluster you are speaking of. But look at the 60 min chart (and ignore the 23rd of July). This is an exemplary IHS in the making. I’d wait for the price to get back to the neckline (currently @ 122,40) and get rid of the shorts on the test.
I thought you covered the puts.
I did cover my puts but still own my shorts. still short 4k at $116.79 ooooooooooooooooooooouuuuuuuuuuuuuuucccccccccccccccccccccchhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
I`d stop focusing on the pain and look at the facts. Like you said you may need to go away for a couple of hours and put your head together. If you`re feeling sorry for yourself you can`t make a proper analysis objectively. Look at the facts and charts, would you short it at this level? If yes then I`d hold, if not then I`d sell.
yeah, get rid of the emotions.
this is business.
losing money is painful but if you can’t stand losing it you should not be investing.
i hope you make it back, i really do.
good luck!
on a side note, this is why i prefer to go long, not short.
if a long trade goes bad you can always walk away, clear your head, etc.
chances are in time you will get your money back (if you invest in solid companies).
Wow dollar finally catching a little bid
I thinking of SCO before inventories come out if this dollar holds up.
Yes it is and that is telling me this market is not buying this BS that has come out today. It appears Friday numbers will be the underlying factor as to what is really going on as if we don’t already know that the jobs market is truly in bad shape. How many times can they disect and analyze the fact that there are very limited jobs available and continued losses week after week? Bottom line is the economy will not recover until the jobs ever come back and the housing market rebounds. Period. JMHO
Sounds like the train’s destiny is the unemployment office with a pit stop in paradise.
LOL but not for the 99ers they all done and guess what? Not included in the numbers so watch the unemployment rate bump down and the market applaud.
Well, I listened to M. Faber yesterday, who pointed out that right now the market weighs any macro news that comes out against the odds of the FED going back to quantitative easing – hence a bad news is UP and a good news is DOWN. There might be something to it.
Notice how they filter in the possibility of the Bush tax breaks being done away with as the market is still digesting these manipulated numbers? ISM increase is only what was lost last month net net still in same position but see how they make such a big deal about it? Nothing but noise.
Sold my FSLR, was sick of looking at it. I literally made $1.00 lol Got long some BP at 40.3
BEXP is doing very well for me this morning
of course, they run FSLR up 2% right after I sell
I believe we`ll see a short term top today. I thought it would be around 1131 but it doesn`t look like it will hit, although we still have 3 hours to go. I`m looking for a move down to 1115-1110 area before moving higher.
Rut ro the euro is dropping like a rock and mighty fast. Watch that dollar weeeeeeeee! Giddy up!
Bought some Sep SPY puts, I`ll buy more if SPY gets closer to 112.70.
61% retrace is at 1138, it seems still have some space to up, why you put SPY here?
I believe we`ll see a short term top today. I thought it would be around 1131 but it doesn`t look like it will hit, although we still have 3 hours to go. I`m looking for a move down to 1115-1110 area before moving higher.
Also too many bulls out there based on the Rydex so we need some kind of a shake out.
I understand, thanks for you detail explanation.
Idan, is it to late to jump in on GOOG?
I am not Idan …. but … his long call was based on an IHS formation. The height of that formation is roughly 65 points. If you project these 65 points from the break out value UP, then you will get a minimum target of 553 – and that leaves you about 10% upside. I’d mention though that there is a minor resistance at approx. 509 = 38,2% RTC of January high – July low.
Is it too late? nope it’s not.. as lynxx mentions, we should see 520 at least, if not 540-550.
BUT it is NOT the best entry anymore. I think you should hope at least for some pull back to around 497.50-499
Thank you both, got in at $500…..will add more on a break of $509.
GS spin off as it moves up.
Stopped out of SCO @12.64 with .03 loss. Oil is scoffing at Dollar rally as if its a Swiss Franc.
Again GS is the locomotive on the train to paradise.
Wow, no stopping this monster.
Be long, be strong.
I TOLD YOU SO I TOLD YOU SO I TOLD YOU SO
10600 WOULD BE BROKEN AND THEN WE GO HIGHER
IM RIGHT 100%
SWBB.
see now if i were an admin here i would ban you right now.
Consolidation in SPX is over! Fasten seat belt for final up move in the next 2-3 weeks. New highs for 2010 are possible.
Long CAT, FCX, GS, GOOG , CEVA, CRESY, MOS, ABAT ! Stops are 3-5 percent below current levels.
My Gold Sep PUT position is heavy down again. Would not like to see GLD moving above 118 on a weekly closing!
AMZN broke the 50ma and 200ma, and a number of bullish trend lines…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=D&yr=2&mn=5&dy=0&id=p96835350693&a=181646175
USD is up 130 bips against CHF…..should continue!
Hi everybody, around 12:45 bought 12K of DNDN @ $38.85. Its been moving up nicely but it seems to have resistance at $40 level. Can anyone guess how high this thing will climb after topping out at $40 and then falling to $38.68?
A break of 112.50 back down on the SPY does not bode well for the intraday action of the markets. Obviously on a longer term scale (1-3 days) the market remains in a slight bull flag, which i expect to break upwards.
Idan,
I can see a backtest of the 110-111 range before we move higher. What do you think? Usually we get some weakness the day before the unemployment report comes in as well.
Looks like 2nd consecutive triangle …
Hi, Idan
WYNN has 5-wave up, it looks $92 is short term top. Is it a entry for Aug put? Thanks
Akira
Blythe Masters, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s head of commodities, sought to reassure her team on an internal conference call after “extremely difficult” dismissals, defections and a first half in which some results were as much as 20 percent below expectations.
“Don’t panic,” she said in summing up the 35-minute call, a recording of which was obtained by Bloomberg News. “No one’s going to get screwed. We’re not going to do crazy things on compensation at the end of the year.”
Masters, who was named to run the business in late 2006, said the bank began dismissals on July 21, a day before the call, to trim overlap after buying parts of RBS Sempra Commodities LLP. The bank cut less than 10 percent of the combined front office, even as the oil unit lost “key people” who needed to be replaced, she said. She was discussing results with top executives after “we made a bit of a rookie error” that left the firm “vulnerable to a squeeze,” she said.
The 41-year-old banker, who helped develop credit-default swaps while at JPMorgan in the 1990s, delivered her talk from a conference room in New York, where the bank is based, less than a month after the firm closed its $1.7 billion RBS Sempra purchase.
Comments:
When a senior manager or president of a company needs to tell their employees not to panic, it suggests something serious is at hand. JP Morgan has the largest notional derivatives exposures of any American bank according to the Reuters article of July 15, 2010.
What this suggests to me is the commodities team at JP has seriously underestimated both risk and uncertainty in their attempt to make greater, leveraged returns.
With a notional derivative exposure level of $76 Trillion, it begs the question, is JP the next Lehman in waiting? Will deleveraging and settling of derivatives trigger the next banking crisis?
Who knows?
With the interconnectedness of the banking sector, and extreme levels of leverage, the wrong move, a “rookie error” in, say, the precious metals market, could trigger some very ugly movements in financial stocks.
So, go ahead and panic, unless you physically own precious metals.
Interesting, could this be playing into the deflation scenario then? In that case commodity prices should plummet. I get the feeling the fed will announce more QE activity in the next few weeks and the markets will go higher like mad.
XLF looks like it wants to tank, but the Spy looks like it want to rocket to 113.20 and beyond.
We should get a push higher by end of week to test 10875-10925. At this point I will take the remaining 25% (500 shares VXX and 500 shares TNA). I am expecting we go lower 150 pts or so once we get to this level. We will see 11000s before any other leg down so do not go short unless you are scalping. Just like I posted in July about us going to 11000s expect a similar post when I spot a reversal point for shorts to take revenge….
i wonder if spy – 103 is still a good entry to short
113 i meant..LOL
financials aren’t really participating…
Yes and I am not going to be surprised if there is a sell off in the last 30minutes either. Market will run up a bit in the next 30mins or so and then down to near flat EOD. Something is not being let out yet but when it is look out. JMHO
somethign fishy – good run for 2% avg stocks but amzn has killing the short bc B&N for sale..what a news!
Interesting developments in USD/JPY. This pair has been correlated with the move up. In other words as USD/JPY has been trending down stocks have been going up. We are close to historical lows on USD/JPY and as a result the pair has bounce up. Should this pair continue to show strength you can kiss this rally goodbye. Nevertheless the bottoming process should be a long one for USD/JPY.
i’m really dying to sell my POT and AGU today but i’m holding off.
so hard to do!
remember, do the opposite…if my instincts are to sell, stay long
but what if your true instincts are the ones not listening to what you think are your “instincts” therefore by thinking you are NOT being a contrarian, you are actually being THE contrarian…
stop confusing me, lol.
sorry. i forgot that i am supposed to guide people instead of confuse them more haha. carry on.
pot is at the 61% retrace 111.21
Shorting AAPL @ 263.00.
RSI high, volume low – Sounds like it should fall doesn’t it?
Cramer was pumping this on TV yesterday =/
Media vs Technicals I guess.
aapl is smack in the middle of the channel. i’m going to hold off before making a move on this.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p19885219021&a=173009294
also forming a wedge. I’d like to see the 50ma break to confirm that wedge break to the south.
I was just looking at it too and not finding out any answers … as to how to position (if at all) the trade. No set up there yet IMO.
yeah…it’s bullish overall…but not in a pretty place on the overall support and resistances. more of a gamble here at the moment.
woo
VXX? bull flag on the daily..thinking of calls whatcha think?
i don’t really watch vxx, but i’ve been watching vix.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20699988574&a=204018771
there’s a good chance we could bounce off that trend line and head north again, but it’s not hitting it just yet, as far as i can see. it might stay in those two expanding trend lines for a bit longer. If VIX dips south of $21.75, it could get dangerous for market short positions and vxx longs.
not a bad place to dip in a small position as long as we don’t break too hard south.
as always…gracias
I didn’t buy any more SPY puts for now, too much positive momentum. If we gap up tomorrow I’ll buy some more. There is a bearish wedge developing on the SPY too. Once it’s complete we should get a decent correction down to 110-110.50 to the bottom of the channel at least. I just see downside more probable than upside at this point.