12:55pm
BA (Boeing) hit the $70 level earlier today, i’ve mentioned this potential push above 70 on my LIVE TRADING videos. I do think that if it rallies above 69.80 again you can get a very nice push to the upside on this stock. Potentially as high up as $74. Here’s my line:|
12:14am
The SPY’s action on friday still remained relatively bullish. With the fact that we put in a higher low at 2pm in comparison to the morning low in the 109 region, suggested that we could be bouncing off the 109.12 support level that HAS to hold for me to be bullish. We did get a small sell off at the end of the day, but i’ll only become intraday bearish if we fall under 110 again.
With the futures being up already, tomorrow could be a very bullish day. If we break 111 on the SPY the market could shoot up to new highs.
Count on today being green. Mondays most generally are green.
I’m still a short-term bull. I posted that China has bottomed a while back and it looks like that’s the case. I’m predicting a move back up to the 1200 area in the SPX. Perhaps a gap fill and then a trend lower. I’m watching the 50-day weekly moving average on the long term charts. Until that rolls over, I’m a bull.
Feeling very confident we go down hard this week. Either Monday or Tuesday will have a drop of at least 1%. I’m strongly bearish and extremely confident we do not go higher this week.
Sorry. I thought you were learning how to trade. Posts like this tell wise traders that it is almost certain the market will soar to new highs. I don’t know what your game is or who you work for but with your 100% contrarian record still intact, I enjoy pointing that out. I do not want you to cause more people to suffer during this recession/depression.
Thanks Goingtoretire…
Hey Jeff If Goingtoretire… wants to post his thoughts what is the problem .. He is just telling us where he Stands …
We all have opinions on what we think may happen …
I think after the first 2 weeks of Aug – we most likely will be going South to new lows before year end – Jmho
Have a Blessed day
mark
Because, if he is legitimate, he is losing far more money than me which is a tragedy, since he is a genius, albeit a masochistic one. Go back as many months as you can and look at his posts. He is wrong 100% of the time which is phenomenal. If he wants to benefit himself and the others on this list, he needs to come to terms with his genius. On the other hand, if he is some major trader, trying to f*** with the people on this blog, that should be mentioned too. I will continue to comment on his pronouncements, not knowing the story behind his posts.
AAFLCB,
Thanks for having my back. I am a self employed guy with absolutely no agenda, just sharing what I believe. I have absolutely NOT been wrong 100% of the time as Jeffgrau mentioned, and in fact have made and taken some very good profits being short over the past 3+ months. Yes, I am now behind on several positions, that happens too. Still extremely confident we go down by day;s end or tomorrow. The market has absolutely NO business being at the levels we are fundamentally, and the market manipulation going on is nothing short of shocking in my opinion.
GTR-
As a new reader of this site over the last few weeks, I don’t think you’re wrong 100% of the time. However, making a two line post about how you’re sure the market will drop 1% and that we won’t go higher for the week without offering a shred of objective evidence opens yourself up to comments like those from Jeff. I tend to ignore posts like those (no offense) because I don’t know what the basis for the opinion is. For all I know you could be trading your gut. Not saying you need to justify everything you post or go into crazy details. But two line market calls like that sound more like Sam than anything else.
Aaron,
Thanks for the reply, and that makes sense to me. When I was called to task on that a couple weeks ago, I followed up with about 200 words of technical and fundamental reasons for my feelings. I don’t type very fast and don’t want to do that frequently. Plus when I did, nobody commented about being glad I provided clear reasons why I felt like I did, it seemed like it didn’t matter to anybody either way.
Honestly, I don’t want to and can’t take the time as a hunt and peck typist, to do any more than I do.
So I’ll continue to share my feelings, which are indeed based on technical analysis, and if some want to take time to ridicule me, I guess I’ll need to just say “whatever” and ignore it.
So, I’m feeling a big sell off coming, a down day tomorrow, and I remain comfortably short this market
I do want to go short since the SPX futures is already up +1.25% today, but the risk/reward is not largely in my favour.
I’ll wait until 1135-1155 for a short!! Just like the USD/CAD currency pair, it tends to give short signals of US stocks at 1.00, and long US stocks at 1.05.. it’s at 1.023 right now.. the mid-point of the trading range.. that’s why I don’twant to be trading any of this!!!
ENJOY!
On my short list is KO ! It might open above $56 today, HOLY COW!
At a 57.50 price, I’ll definetely take 10000 shorts, thank YOU. But we have to wait !!
I am long this market and enjoying a good run so far. The futures are pointing to a strong start and it seems we could have a 200 pt day. Nevertheless there is bearish news building up (Greenspan mentioned double dip) and so forth. Therefore on a day like this I will take 50% of my positions off the table and will maintain 25% with tight stops. I am still camped on the side of we touch 11000s. That is why I am riding that 25%.
SHORT KO AT 59.93.
TRYING TO GET MORE SHORTS
YUM.
55.93*
At least SHORT KO, LONG SPY..
KO = 0.60 BETA
SPY = 1.00 BETA
KO should not be up 1.25% this morning.. it should theoretically be up only 0.75%.
soo many ways to play this guys.. dont miss out.. last time RY.TO went up 6% of which 1% was pure arbitrage profits from stupid dividend manipulation!! i told you guys RY.TO always is mispriced 2-3% lower on dividend days to make retail noobs sell low!!
STICK WITH BIG BOY.
I’ll put in a limit to cover my 55.93 KO shorts at 55.45 & 55.65.. easy money !
ouch…good thing you’re not trading with real money sammy boy.
Lol
market is looking pretty bullish…my 1130s short term target is still looking nice.
Woo
i know we missed shorting that FSLR but woyld you short it here with a 2 pt stop loss? seems pretty weak in this mkt today while the dow and spx are up huge FSLR is not participating…
although I hate gap ups, I feel that either later today or tomorrow we will see a pullback of 100 to 200 pts .JMHO and I’ve been wrong before,
dsavil, although I value your opinion and you’ve been right almost all the time, I think this bloated pig is on its way to the slaughter house….. oink oink
an ascending trend line is forming based on the lows since beginning of june. i would wait for a 200ma break around 124 to short. it has a little bit of support right now.
ok thank you. Please let us know if your outlook changes..
Well this bloated pig as you say is long and stong on the train to paradise as I have said over and over. Denial is a tough thing for some people but I call it the way I see it and anyone playing this market short is just going to lose their arse. Do what you want but the view is nice here on the train to paradise. Play the trend my friend be it a bull or a bear see it for what it is and make the cashola. Of course JMHO.
Anyone playing YRCW for the earnings?
I am in since friday… Still holding it. Avg price .379
still short 4k AMZN at $116.79…………………….in pain now but i’m convinced AMZN will be below $110 sooner than later…
will add more to my position once we cross $114.50 with volume…….
if amzn crosses the 50ma, it will also cross a long term trend line. at that point, you might want to just suck up the loss.
as i was mentioning last week, there was a chance of this back test, so shorting was a bit dangerous. either way, good luck!
Bought SCO @$12.93. Still holding some bought @$13.79…. bringing up my average price to $13.28. GL.
Woo, seems like GS is stuck between 152 and 153. What are the levels you are seeeing it needs to clear in order to break-out and where would you put your stops if you are long the stock?
Appreciate your input.
i currently don’t have an updated GS chart, but will try and make one today before market close. Looks like it’s trading in a descending channel. However, it looks like it could break out. I wouldn’t keep this long below the 50ma (148.64) because we could see a trend line retest in sub 130s. I’ll get a better update later.
Thanks.
TNA slightly below the 200ma. broke below the retracement support in the $45.90s also. hmm…
Looks like this 50% retracement of P1 isn’t going to break so easily. Normally I would say this resistance isn’t going to hold for the day though because we’ve broken passed it a number of times.
I’ll continue to watch for a break further north.
I am selling 50% of my positions right now (1000 shares of TNA and 1000 shares (short) of VXX). As of today I am only holding 25% in 500 shares TNA and 500 shares shorting VXX. This according to the plan I laid out on several posts that I was goind to take risk of the table as we approach the 11000s.
I have moved my stops on VXX and TNA as follows:
TNA 43.35
VXX short 22.35
I have secured great gains for this move up and could still cash in on the way up some more….
Cha Ching….
Nice, it’s always good to take profits and secure them. Good luck.
I wish I knew when to sell my POT and AGU!
They keep going up, but I know not forever.
I just can’t pull the trigger.
I’ll post it when/if I do.
woo, what do you think about NFLX? still in support line.
a chance of shorting this sucker?
I’d like one full confirmation candle under that trend line first. You can dabble now with stops above that trend line, but I personally would wait a day or two.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NFLX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03361898028&a=204535071
I’ll be shorting around 1130 for a reaction down to 1122. All my call positions are on the TSX and it’s a holdiay here so I have to wait until tomorrow to cash in if we hit 1130 by then. I don’t think I’ll stay long past Wednesday’s close.
IMPORTANT ANALYSIS FROM ME, IMPORTANT ANALYSIS FROM ME IMPORTANT ANALYSIS FROM ME
SPY SHOULD go above 113 by tomorrow BUT it can not close above this level for this week. That being said I believe price SHOULD start falling very HARD HARD from Tomorrow or Wednesday. I TOLD YOU last week the important of 1128, So i think that level is a good topping level BUT as I said close is IMPORTANT and it should not CLOSE above 113 on SPY. I am getting ready to go short HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE
SWBB
Sam, i like your idea. I wonder if you want to do networking so i can join your big boys club
A cup of coffee will be great!
like your KO short? lol.
Sam, no disrespect, but, you always talk about these huge gains ( HUGE HUGE HUGE) , I wonder how much money are you playing with. I mean your last HUGE HUGE HUGE gain was on GLD while it moved a mere 2.2% on a $115 stock. in order for that trade to roduce HUGE HUGE HUGE returns you must have had atleast 100k shares or so for you to gloath like that on the board or yopu are just a small trader, trading 200 shares at a time to pay for you lunch.
look forward to hearing from you to clarify the situation……………….. Gl to you
sam,
what do you see at 1128 as resistance? I currently don’t see any resistance there, and if we break above this 1122-1123 area, we should get above 1128 pretty easily, I’m seeing mid 1130s minimum. might see a good bounce there.
woo,
just shorted 2500 FSLR at $126.20…………….. taking a wider stoploss of 6 pts….. will probably hurt for a day or two but I have a good feeling about this one my friend……
200ma hasn’t broken yet. a bit of a risk here. got balls haha. good luck!
If that 132 area breaks, WATCH OUT.
If it can drop below $124.80s, we should see a 200ma break as well, and a 50ma touch. If that 50ma breaks, the fibs below are pretty far away and you’re going to be looking at a good christmas.
right now I feel like an asshole
should longs be concerned with the incredibly low volume on this move?
Nah, not really IMHO. If you look at some the previous multi-week run-ups, you will notice that the low volume was no obstacle. It seems that this market doesn’t need a genuine (broad) bull run in order to keep rising. Furthermore, it’s the holiday season and it’s quite unlikely that we will see heavy volume either way until September.
i like 1138 as short term minimum top candidate.
Currently sitting above 1 month channel. I’ll wait a bit before piling in.
Woo, What do you think of double -ve divergence developing on RSI and MACD on 60 min chart if 1130+ happens to touch?
HI Idan and Stocktock-ers: When do we short the SP500? 1130??
(( ALERT: Smart Money Indicator Flips Short ))
I got this email from Dan Murphy on Sunday, August 1, 2010.
http://investmentsthatwork.blogspot.com/search/label/Dan%20Murphy
ALERT: Smart Money Indicator Flips Short
I don’t have time to make a video, but I wanted to give you a heads up.
I was really liking this rally in the S&P 500…but on Friday, my Smart Money indicator flipped short.
As you know, the SMI is a long-term indicator. It’s designed to catch the big trends in the market, like the 2008 crash and the 2009 rebound.
I’m actually surprised to see a sell signal from these levels since I’ve noted a ton of good looking market structure after the head and shoulders failure.
The SMI is a 100% mechanical, rules based model and I trust it a great deal. Trade well, Dan
Smart Money Index System ??
http://www.financialpicks.com/systems_smartmoney.html
I get his emails and videos too. I think his system is very long term so it picks the top within a range of 5-6% which is just ridiculous for a trader.
True, I already blocked the guy. I don’t want to be passing any judgments, but it’s useless for my needs.
His Smart Money Index System looks at money in money out. Ignore Liquidity, Get Killed. Liquidity is a big deal to me, and I had to learn the lesson the hard way. Very few people payed attention to liquidity premium before the financial meltdown. Liquidity is king. When you are spread trading any financial instrument you must always be aware of liquidity and the risks of being long or short low or high liquidity instruments. We see one more Market Leadership is Weakening. The biggest warning sign the market seems to be giving us right now is the blatant 10-month head & shoulders formation seen on each of the major indices. Like in 2008, a massive head & shoulders of this magnitude is not something that investors ought to take lightly. Millions chose to ignore this warning sign in 2008 at their peril.
Conte Carlo Equity Curve technique. Historical sequence EQT can serve as the master-tool that will give you the visibility to the market.
spy challenging the 100
This may sound very wierd to all you stocktockers but I feel good about my positions in AMZN and FSLR
So far, as noted before:
short 4k AMZN at $116.79 ( hurting a bit )
short 2k FSLR at $126.20
Also a small position started in AMZN SEPT 115 PUT executed at $3.70
Good luck to all especially shorts (hahahaha) come to papa.
Jusbreal, in terms of AMZN – if I ‘take out’ the very strong intraday reversal on the 23rd of July, then what I am seeing is IHS in development with the current neckline value @ 123.
113.20 was the previous high on SPY in this area so we’ll probably get some resistance there. Whether we can a down move or just consolidation is another issue.
Aug 4th is important and a consolidation is very likely. A major down move is not expected this week !!
Seeing a small negative divergence on the 5 min RSI.
There is now a bigger negative divergence on the 5 min RSI so tomorrow morning we’ll probably see a flat to down opening but I’m not expecting a big correction just yet.
Take Main Street Problems out of the Equation since Wall Street ignores Main Street News.
What we have left is all the Doomer news about collapse, deflation, recession in multiple dips or misguided stories about so called recovery based on marketing hype and fantasy (yes fantasy since hyped stories and spin do not equal what the data says…)
But where are all the stories about the EU collapsing, the Financial Markets retreating because of insurmountable debt? Two weeks ago the end was near…now what? Now the Market is “busting” out …good news? What good news? GDP is dropping, American and Chinese Manufacturing is slowing, in fact all of the key data shows the economy is still slowing down, not heating up…
I suppose the market will do what it does, but it doesn’t make sense, in fact counter intuitive doesn’t even come close to describing this freak show….
True but … haven’t you gotten used to it by now? I am an economist by profession. And what I am sensing is that the last Keynesian crusade is about to begin (to end in tears). And that seems to be the market’s cheer at this point. As much as I believe my own fundamental assessments (that are fairly bearish), I have learned not to trade upon these believes. It’s frustrating, but as long as GS, JPM and the FED have bigger pockets than me, I will oblige.
Keynes’ solution to this poor economic state was to prime the pump. When the Great Depression hit, people’s natural reaction was to hoard their money. Under Keynes’ theory this stopped the circular flow of money, keeping the economy at a standstill. These types of unnecessary and damaging government interventions cause people both rich and poor, employer and employee, to slow their production down and cause them to take a very defensive position towards protecting the little wealth they have from further loss. Then governments who are manned by power hungry people who for the most part just want more and more control over people cry, “Our economy is in trouble, we need more government spending to jump start our economy”. And then more paper currency (or electronic money, or money which is nothing more than numbers in a banks computer) is created or printed out of thin air and then this money is dumped into the economy in order to bring the economy out of its recession / depression and this in turn causes the need for more taxation and more re-distribution of wealth and more regulation of people and upon businesses.
LOL. Mail it to Ben. He likes the smell of a print ink in the morning.
I have learned there are two types of traders. One believes being right is more important and one believes making money is more important. The one who believes being right is more important will lose and the one who believes making money is more important will win.
“You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality.”
idan, woo
Any advice on XLF watched it today and made to purchase. Looks like a break out but was wondering if a pullback to the neckline should be bought?? Thanks for your thoughts.
PDC
Haven’t seen one post on the VIX lately even though this is usually a favorite topic on this board. Volatility seems to have left the market once again, and I think this is a trap. In looking at the VIX chart, it seems ready to pop.
Both the Daily and Weekly chart still have a Bull Pennant formation intact – haven’t fallen below the lower triangle support. The MACD is about to go positive on the daily, and meanwhile the MACD hasn’t gone negative yet on the weekly VXX and the RSI is just about oversold on the daily VXX.
Anyway, with all the bullish sentiment, just a contrarian POV. Especially with declining volume, watch the volatility.