LIVE TRADING at 1:30pm EST/ 6:30pm GMT on VIDEO.
12:55pm
Incredible how the SPY just had to touch 109.10 this morning and it bounced off from there!
12:01am
I went ahead and drew a SPY 5 minute chart so you can see what levels i’m looking at to be some intraday support and resistance tomorrow in the +2%/- 2% range. A lot of people are going to be looking at the GDP numbers coming out today and i honestly don’t think they will be so good. But that said, i’ll only become more bearish on the day if we can successful break the 109.90-110 level back down. When do i become a full bear? Only if we break 109.10 (38.2% retrace from July 09 lows to the highs of this year).
Economic Data for today:
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Employment Cost Index
8:30 AM ET
Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
You learn to accept things as facts of life. There are no “good” things or “bad” things, there are just things. There are things you can control, and there are things you can’t.
It helps if you can learn to care without caring in some aspects, in other aspects, it help if you learn not to care at all.
sometimes, infact everytime, thing happen for a reason. Bad or good. The important thing to remember, is that when something negative happens to us in our lives, it is to make room for something positive. We must embrace all that comes our way, for it is what it is. The important thing is not to harp on that bad…instead look for the new direction that life is pointing us down. Also, dont just go through the motions in life ie the volunteering, extracuricular activities and such unless you are driven to do them for what they are, not for what they might bring to you. Its like a painter who doesnt enjoy painting, he/she just enjoys the final product…there should be joy and awareness in every stroke of color and every touch of the brush to the canvass…only then is the final product one of value.
The doubt of sacrificing fun does not arise. To be in the company of beautiful girls or any such… is not the real fun. One should work hard and that hard work should be fun creative. One should set his mind in such a way that whatever work he does, he should derive fun and happiness from that work. Unless I do not have the commitment towards work, I will not derive the fun or happiness from that work. Like that if ‘am in the company of girls and if I do not have a commitment in my job, I will not derive any fun or happiness even from that also. Happiness is not derived from a thing or from a girl or any such other ‘thing’ , it is my own creation. I create fun, I create happiness. If you do not get any fun from your ‘hard work’ , then why for it is being carried out ..? You cannot carry on that job unless there is a positive derivativ, direct or indirect. The other fun which you literally mean is ‘just making fun of’ others and not the real fun. Fun or happiness is not a ‘matter’ which one can get from a supermarket for a price. Is a state created by self and others cannot distroy it also unless I myself consgn to do so.
SW.I.LB
Are you insane or perhaps confused? Perhaps you meant to post this on the dr Phil blog Sam?
I too believe GDP won’t be great, maybe it’s current nos and or revisions. I truly found big bens last speech peculiar as he admitted even he does not understand what’s happening with the economy. This from the rah rah group cannot be good. We all know the true economy sucks. How long can this be ignored. Almost 1 in 10 people unemployed and everyone knows that’s understated. But the fat cats (SAMs pals the big boys) continue as if it’s the same world. Buy and hold, just like they have for generations. I believe this ponzi scheme in the market will ruin many ordinary americans who won’t see it coming. If the republicans get their way and stop extending unemployment, people will have no choice but crime in order to eat. Desperate times. And in places like detroit etc, who’s left to steal from. Sry
Sry for my own long rambling rant. We may be headed back to 1930s breadlines. I don’t see much of this on us news, which I suppose is similar to the fact that w banned the media in Iraq after he declared victory years ago. The emperor has no clothes. Glta
disclosure: only position in trading acct 1500 she’s fax, held too long and still down. Planning on holding at least a bit longer…hoping to ride the e waves
idan woo anji and to the other intellegent folks here- thanks for teaching us all (or those who will listen) how to trade better. Sam, and your alto egos F U and your Gloating on trades you are probably not making.
Hey Robert. I got in FAZ same time as you. I got stopped out for a loss. If XLF goes lower than yesterdays low(14.53) for a couple 10 minute candles I’ll buy FAZ again.
IMO you are really damaging the focalequity.com brand.
You and your alter egos.
I’m not sure why you haven’t been banned but if it were up to me you and your multiple ips, names, and fake trades would be gone.
lol, i just read Robert_Tax_CPA’s reply abouve…i should have just said ditto to that.
PART 2 OF IBD MeetUp Tucson
Today I will talk about how to rank ‘stocks’
Initial Analysis To Determine Stock Rank
To determine the rank of the stock you need to use a current daily chart that contains EOD
price and volume bars and the duration of this chart should be at least 6 months. With a
ruler you quickly sketch in the last 5 cycles by lining out the trend lines (right channel line) of
the last 5 cycles. At a minimum, 5 cycles are required for the last 6 months. Also, but not
necessary, you can scale in the Intermediate Term (IT) trend(s) that form the envelope of
the short term cycles on the chart. Next, number the cycles from left to right or pick and
number 5 cycles that best demonstrate the price action. On the initial analysis sheet write in
the beginning date of the cycles you have chosen, or simply write the numbers 1 through 5
since you now have those annotated on the chart.
For each of the five columns note the following 3 items: The point shift of price, the point
value from trough to peak, the base price where the cycle began (trough) and the number of
15
days in the cycle. To the right of these three rows calculate and write down the average
value for each. In the next box to the right labeled “Return” write out the results of the
calculation which represents the decimal equivalent of the point shift divided by the base
price (the percent of the run). The final calculation you do is to determine the rank by
dividing the Return decimal (percent) by the number of days, on average, it took to get that
return. The rank that results is the average amount of price change as a decimal (percent)
that occurs each day of the cycle. This is the potential of the stock to make money.
Thus each time a new stock is added to your universe (list) you know its rank as compared
to all the other stocks in your universe. To make more money, priority is given to high
ranking stocks when it comes time to choose. What you have actually gained by carrying
out this process by hand, is a simple working knowledge of how this stock can be used to
make money.
Where is the video feed?
can the moderators please ban these posters who are only here to inflate their egos and promote themselves. this used to be a informational board with intelligent dialoge and it has gone downhill. No one will miss them and if they want to expouse how to do things they can go start their own website.
Battle going on at Idan’s SPY 109.10. Whats going to happen?
Ok, that was weird. SPY just jumped 60 cents as if a magnet was pulling it.
I saw it too. Happened in a second.
Sold my SPY puts bought yesterday for a good gain. We bounced off just below 109 with the help of the Chicago PMI report better than expected.
upom breaking 114.50 on amzn i will add another 4k short…..
so far still holding 4k shares short at $116.79 gl to all
I have bought another 25% into VXX and TNA bringing my averages up to:
VXX 2000 shares @24.40 average stop 24.15
TNA 2000 shares @40.02 average stop 40.25
I am all in into the weekend unless I get stopped out before today. If I get stopped out I have secured at least 1000$ (about .78% in three weeks). My biggest risk is a gap down on monday but I do not think this will happen.
I also will like to add that this trade although seems risky is actually a good risk/reward ratio. If I get this right and we start climbing to the 11000s from here I could be looking at 20%-30% gain in my portfolio over the next month or so. I am up 79% YTD.
current holdings:
Long POT.TO
Long AGU.TO
Long VXX.TO
Long TA.TO
working out well so far
can’t bring myself to sell any of them, still feel like we’re going up.
VXX is my hedge.
good morning to all
let me introduce myself with comments I have been posted: http://disqus.com/prozor7/
here is what I’m expecting EOD and August:
XLF small retrace to 14.67 (63) than up to 14.83 small drop and close above 14.77
if following happened than SPX could hit 1130 in next 2 weeks.
I don’t see bigger drop here:
position: 100% cash
Idan – enjoying in yours live trading
Prozor – great to see you here and welcome
AS2009
Dsavil…
you were so right when you said ” no matter what the news will be this market is going higher— TRAIN TO PARADISE”
how could this be happening? I know… TOOOOOOOOO many idiots like me are shorting and the markets always do the exact opposite of what the majority expect it too.. even though they may be right
Another prime example today. Market plunges 100 pts just to rally back. News was not that great(keeping in mind numbers will be revised by next week) but no matter what they say market continues to chug up what can I say dats the fact jack.
HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE PROFIT on GLD. As I posted yesterday I bought at 114 and it is moving up HUGE HUGE.
SWBB
Sam, your sense of stock or market go up and down is pretty good. But only 0.5%, you think is huge huge…………….profit?.
I am anticipating a short squeeze in the afternoon and we can end up with a +60-100 pt day. I do not think shorts will be holding over the weekend given past experiences with Mondays and lack of follow up to today’s “sell off”. However this could also mean that the real sell off could be monday (would not be surprise since this market likes to eat peoples hearts and souls when least expected). However that is a risk with low probability in my view and I am willing to take it. The push higher this afternoon is almost like free money if you go long now….
Typically Mondays are green just sayin.
Why did the time on the posts all of a sudden go to 6pm? Time warp again? Captain beam me back!
The 10 reasons for a push higher:
1.- Bearishness in the air is high (remember pareto rule: 80% of traders have 20% of cash and 80% of cash is in 20% of traders)
2.- Bearish formations are showing up along with short term bullish formations.
3.- USD/JPY is going lower
4.- EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD going higher.
5.- Every push lower is bought
6.- September elections
7.- Federal Reserve bought new state of the art Printing Presses. Quantitative Easing Part II in the works
8.- Cramer turned cautious and/or bearish
9.- Gold is selling off
and the most important of all is:
10.- I am long and I predicted we are going higher!!!!!!
IMPORTANT MESSAGE FROM ME, IMPORTANT MESSAGE FROM ME, IMPORTANT MESSAGE FROM ME, IMPORTANT
My portfolio exploded several time this morning due Money flow comes to my account. HUGE HUGE HUGE profit I made on GLD and also going long on BIDU thsi morning.
HUGE PROFIT
STOP LOSS AT GLD NOW is 114.5 TARGET IS 116.2
SWBB
YOU ARE THE MAN!
Investors reacted to the report with disappointment. Stock futures fell in the hour before the markets opened. However, losses later moderated after the University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment index for July rose slightly more than expected. So basically the consumer sentiment is what makes this market go up or down. Even sentiment up just a little bit rallys this screwed up market and you think you have a chance? Forget it. All manipulated BS hold your cash and do something else.
I’m thinking (and hoping) that if 1100 SPX doesn’t break clearly to the upside like at least 1103, in the next 30 minutes or so, that we close in red today at least 1/2%
Don’t hold your breath. This market has all indications it will close EOD green.
I hear you, but I do think it would surprise most folks if we did sell off, so that’s my gut feeling. We’ll see. Gotta run, back in an hour or so.
No need to hope it goes down. You took some profits yesterday at 110.20 and should have taken more profits today at 109.20. If that is the case, then when it goes up you have an opportunity to reinvest those profits in short positions at a much lower price. Set upside targets for reinvestment based on levels Idan talks about. Divide your reinvestment, so that you add to your short positions just shy of each level, based on a max high of 114 or 115. (If it goes higher than that, bears are screwed no matter what you do).
Thanks for the advice Jeff, makes sense to me. I do appreciate the tips on levels, and reinvestment strategy as well, very cool.
In retrospect taking profits today early in the day would have been smart, and I should have done it. However I just had a gut feeling since last night that I should hold all my remaining short positions into the weekend. I’m feeling pretty good about the sell off at the end, and the fact that we closed lower on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq then we did last Friday, with the Russells ending just barely higher and the Dow just slightly higher.
I am realizing the importance of taking profits more and more, and appreciate your advice, and will always watch and read closely the comments shared by Idan and Woo.
So I’m thinking Monday or Tuesday, or both will be substantially down days, and will look to take more profits at that time.
Thanks again, good luck to you, and have a great weekend!
folks, where do you think we are closing? Red or Green pil?
i think we will start Aug will bloody month. a lot of bad news now..
what do you think?
BAD NEWS IS GOOD NEWS GOOD NEWS IS BETTER. NEWS DOESN’T MEAN CRAPOLA.
The only weakness we MAY see is for Monday but after that we should see a nice rise.
Idan,
Can you give us some thoughts on TNA?
Thanks
MARKET IS COMING BACK JUST AS I TOLD YA. LONG AND STRONG THE TRAIN TO PARADISE IS UNSTOPABLE ALL ABOARD!
My educated guess today is that this market will close at 10525
I’ll guess 10390
You still have a chance to revise your prediction
So do you.
Lets see I am 40 pts from my prediction and you are 90 pts away from yours. I guess I will keep mine…
Looks like you won by being 59 points away to my 76, pretty close though my friend.
Yeah it was but Dsavill was closer than you and I. I thought I was in a good track when we hit 10507!!. Have a nice weekend!!!!
JROD,
The system wouldn’t let me reply to your last message so I’m using this one. Yep, Dsavil was closest, and I agree the last hour was pretty unpredictable.
You have a nice weekend too my friend, we’ll rest up and hit the market for some more money next week
It looks like it did let me reply to the correct message of your after all.
Na will close closer to 10490
There is some green now, probably a short squeeze will get us higher next week.
Just bought 500 shares SPXU @31.27
HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE PROFIT was made on GKD EXACTLY as I told you I went long yesterday at 114 on both stock and GLD call and just closed and BOOKED all my position with huge profit
SWBB
IMO you are really damaging the focalequity.com brand.
You and your alter egos.
I’m not sure why you haven’t been banned but if it were up to me you and your multiple ips, names, and fake trades would be gone.
tshirt2,
First no one ask for your opinion, secondly your problem is that you can not see someone make money all the time with zero losses and mistake. Either you are jealous or anything else, you would be more than happy if I buy something and then sell it with losses, but that is just not happening with me , because i am STRONG
My advise to you is that ALWAYS trade with plan ,not HOPE and do your analysis and NEVER trade based on other opinion you hear from other people.
Good Luck
SWBB
^ SAM, do not worry about the fools.
I used to get entertainment value from bashing other’s stupidity or mistakes; now I get zip all.
YOU CAN’T MAKE IT WITHOUT A MENTOR.
I’ve been mentored by NYSE traders for a couple of months.. and that’s why I now succeed!!
ZEE, Who the hell was that NYSE traders ? Could you give me his contact info??
I was mentored by him as a group of 10.. unfortunately I never got close to him *he did invite us to join him and his friends for $500 poker.. lol this was a lot for me, remember this is 09*
either way, no i cant give you his contact info LOL.. unless I knew him better.. sorry he mentored me for a couple of weeks and thats it.
SCO order got filled @$13.79. will add more if they take oil close to $80 level. GL.
Believe it’s 79.40 to be exact
I am not shorting this market. There is a strong inverse corelation between the US$ and SPX. When the dollar is strong, SPX falls and vice versa. The Euro is unusually strong and that is leading the commodity shares to rally. It is not breaking down. Asain markets are also going strong over the last week. Continue to be 100% cash
long Some FSLR at 127.8 for a rental
Same ole same ole song and dance as they rip the bears hearts out at close. The only way to play is up but if you enjoy losing your arse go short.
Do what I’m doing.. wait for a nice correction and jump in.
THAT, or wait for the USD/CAD to go to parity, and jump in long.
Reasoning: we are not going lower until we break the 6-MONTH SEPTEMBER 2009 PIVOT LOW OF 985. I’ve mentioned this about 1,000,000 times that markets are bullish until a break of 985 on the S&P. Search my pictures on FE.COM.. but I’ve said this 1,000x.. long until 985 is broken [long-term].. of course you can take intraday/swing shorts.. but the primary trend is up until 985 is broken.
Lastly, I think anyone trying to predict the markets in-between 2 huge pivot points (1000 & 1200) is stupid. Why? There is no RISK/REWARD in betting long when your downside is 10% and reward is 10%.
Wait for SPX 1000-1030 to take major CALL/LONG positions.. and wait for SPX 1170-1230 to take major short/put positions. When I mean major I mean trying to earn ROI of 20% on huge share ratios which just cannot occur at SPX 1100 where we are TODAY, AUGUST 1ST
SHARPE **
Why are the futures up so sharply? Just the fact that the Asian market is up.
China PMI data came as 51.2.
China July official PMI falls to 51.2 vs. 51.1 f’cast
S.Korea exports up 29.6 pct yr/yr
MSCI Asia ex-Japan index up 1 pct
remember market goes up 4% on avg. from nov-jan period… anything above 1160 before september is a SHORT.
Right now I’m looking at staying long until about Wednesday unless the charts say otherwise.