2:10pm
XLF INVERSE H&S formation on the daily might be getting ready to complete itself. We opened right around the neckline today and I think it’s worth going long once we do break that neckline. I am a believer that we do break higher but people wanting to short at 14.95-15.00 make sure you have a stop very tightly above 15.05:
Today at 1PM EST/ 6pm GMT – LIVE TRADING CONTINUES – Get Idan’s thoughts on the market.
Idan Koren
12:56pm
GOOG daily today confirming a breakout of a descending (blue) resistance line that has held it strongly lower. With that I become more bullish on GOOG into the next week or so:
If we close back below 490.75 today i’ll become more bearish.
11:46am
GS 60 minutes showing signs of a triangle formation. The resistance of my triangle formation is very clear. The support however, could either be where i drew it, or can be a little higher using a less steep line that touches the closes of the candles rather than the lows. Usually this pattern after a massive rally is very bullish, but i recommend playing either side once the triangle breaks:
11:43am
I do expect some weakness for a few days as we hit the 200 SMA daily and the 50% retrace… we will need to close beneath the two for me to continue to believe that we will have weakness into tomorrow. Any level below 111.55 should be good for the bears today.
Woo:
3:00 am EST
Here is an update on the overall market from the Leveraged ETF Pro subscription section:
SPX 1 year:
As I mentioned in the intraday commentary, we need to watch the bullish movement on this very carefully. If you look at the RSI we are above a trend line that has held for the last 3 months. We broke above the 200ma which is at 1113.69. We can also see further bullish action on the 6 month chart.
SPX 6 month:
We can see that the breakout that has happened on a number of levels on the 6 month chart as well. The RSI broke a trend line at the same time that we broke out of the wedge that was forming a little below 1100. We’re above a number of support areas. Also you can see the fibs of the 3 wave from 1170s down to 1010s, and we are above the 61% retrace which is also a bullish indicator. The RSI is a little high, but we’ve seen near 80 RSI’s on this chart a number of times. The projection to 1136 is also playing out very nicely with moves in between and bouncing off of fibs at 10588, 1073, and 1088. After a bounce at 1088, we had a strong move north, which is also a bullish sign. The only chance the bears currently have of saving the market from rushing north towards the 1130s and higher is to create a new correction wave, draw out the market sideways a few days, till the waves correct, and then move south. However, this would take a lot of work to do, and the path of least resistance is currently north. We need to watch out for this though. If we really are headed towards 1136, there is a chance we could move sideways a bit more in between 1106-1118. Either way, the market bias is clearly bullish for now, and I’d look for a break under 1106 to at least get a bit of momentum towards the south. However, with so many trend lines, ma’s and fibs as support under here, we really need a break under 1065 to have a strong bearish bias again.
Idan:
12:01am
Here’s the daily chart of the SPY below. Two major things to note are the following:
1. We broke out of the descending channel on thursday (i pointed that out as a buying day).
2. We hit the daily 200 SMA and the 50% retracement today (could be a day for selling pressure to begin).
I still believe we can rally as high as 115 before we reverse, but what are your thoughts?
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I think we see sideways choppy action in the morning, and sell off in the afternoon. Expecting a close of 1-2% down, if not more.
Good luck to everybody!
Yes , I agrre with you
AAFLCB,
Much appreciated.
Why would you say that when every technical indicator says the opposite? I hate to be rude, but you truly are a 100% contrary indicator and bears need to ignore you while bulls laugh.
Jeffgrau,
Interesting, I thought we had agreed not to needlessly antagonize each other or attack each other, and now you make this statement??? You’ve shown your true character, and I won’t bother to respond to you except to say you go ahead and laugh at me and use me as a contrarian indicator, and I’ll laugh at you and use you as one ignore you.
Its really funny, I thought mature adults just wanted to share thoughts here and had a right to say what they thought and discuss trading, and that would be that. However I guess folks like you see this as a place to put each other down and ridicule each other. Methinks you have a character disorder!
I don’t like antagonizing, but your last extreme bearish call, while it was correct for 3 more hours than I expected, heralded the recent massive buying spree on the market. This has happened repeatedly over the last year or so. If you followed your own advice, you would be completely wiped out. Not once have you given any technical reasons for your pronouncements. I am a bear myself navigating these treacherous waters and the last thing any bear needs is rah rah bears trying to obfuscate the current state of the market. At least Sam is so obviously entertainment that he is easy to ignore. But you try to sound serious which makes you dangerous for newbies.
Yesterday I said big boys will take SPY to 111.5~111.8 in yesterday. and after close I said tomorrow market will be gap up toward 112. EVERYTHING I SAY HAPPENS EXACTLY. Is there anybody who wants to thank me for all these exact prediction?
As I said yesterday I still hold 20% of my long and keep moving the stop loss up.
I was going to load a HUGE amount of short at 111.8, but I would rather to wait for the end of this week. Looks like market is heading toward 113 by the end of this week.
Today I am almost certain that market will close below 112.35 and we may just pass this level interday and then pull beck to close below 112.3.
SWBB
thanks
Good calls on the Ford!
At $13 today..
I was short.. but cycles are pointing to continuous upwards movement as long as we break 10,600 by August 3rd so I reduced my short position to prevent DD.. I still think this is a bull trap.. since, at the rate we are going up, Dow will be at 200,000 and the .DXY will be 0.
I liked this:
”It seems that all you hear about these days is deflation. That is certainly what the bond market is telling us, with my screen blaring at me a miserable 2.93% yield for the ten year Treasury bond. But there is a new definition for this economic malady that applies to us hapless consumers. In the new deflation, the value of our income falls, while the prices of things we need to buy are going through the roof. It is a particularly pernicious form of deflation, as it is burning our candles at both ends at the same time. Take a look at the chart below, showing the cost of college tuition versus the consumer price index and home prices. This hits home particularly hard, as I have just helped put three kids through college, and am reduced to riffling through the sofa cushions looking for spare change in order to meet the bills. When I graduated from the University of California in the seventies the tuition was $3,000 a year. Today it is $12,000, and climbing at a 30% annual rate. The saddest part of the story is that rampant wage deflation means that recent graduates have a grim choice between taking a poorly paid job, or no job at all. That leaves them woefully unable to repay the student loans they ran up to obtain their rapidly devaluing diplomas. And if you were planning on becoming a teacher, forget it, unless you want to move to Saudi Arabia, Russia, or South Korea. After watching tens of millions of jobs get shipped to China over the last decade, did you expect anything less? Just ad this problem to the ever lengthening list of ways we are getting screwed.”
http://i562.photobucket.com/albums/ss62/madhedge/College.gif?t=1280094388
What’s everyone trading Today……
Post your trades………………………….what you are trading ……………….. long or short…… GL to all……..
Watching the currencies.. no trades for me for a while..
I will wait for 1020 to buy more stock, if it doesn’t happen so be it..
I like high probability plays and I went short this market a couple of days ago.. and it isn’t working-granted I went in lightly, I knew it was a gamble. Ironically, I do think we go to 1200-1300 by 2011-2012 but it will be a 100% short.. Basically, I’m bearish but know the market culprits will not allow a 3 digit S&P to ever occur.
Especially not with the nice 9/11 bottom they painted.. 1011.91
Being long at 1120 is just plain stupid and one is simply playing the greater fool theory. Then again valuations don’t mean anything anymore with algo’s trading every stock, the correlations will soon be 1 with the general market index and stock picking will be dead. The EUR/USD just broke 1.30.. let the short covering rally BEGIN!
Gold is starting to tank … I believe our dollar will get stronger soon and markets will top today … and drop big in Aug
IF any shorts, than it is still Gold at the moment and for the next weeks. 107 in GLD is first target….longer term there is 88-90 possible. I am still short GLD !
FSLR- looks like it will gap up today looking to unload 8 of my 13 Aug calls today…
Woo, are you going to hold any calls going into Thursday? Thanks for the help you guys here are great….
PDC
FSLR 140.45; Last Trade 1.05 (+0.75%)
Pre-Market Change * 1,050 Volume 09:11:39 AM EDT
Premarket gap ups or downs are continued only,when the stock is trading on high volume.
1,050 Shares traded is not significant enough to say with 100% certainty that FSLR will gap up in the $140.50 range. Nevertheless, FSLR should still gap up because of the SPY correlation!
For example, if you look at Ford(F) it is gapping up 1.70% on 750,000 volume.
This is a significant amount of volume. The gap up in price is likely to carry forward for the rest of the day. Look for F to open up around 1.70%.
Thanks, learning day by day,
In the premarket, the bid/ask is usually 20-50 cents on illiquid stocks in the premarket this causes an anxious buyer to ‘overpay’ for a stock, such as what you saw on FSLR this morning.
i’m going to consider locking in some profits on my overall FSLR today. I have a really solid avg on both stock and call options and don’t need a breakout above 140. If we don’t get it by today, i might not risk the market taking a retrace.
i got stopped out on both FSLR stocks and options for small profit. will get back in if we cross $137.50 again.
back in for more!
sold at the open, will look to get some calls for thursday for earnings? Not many
very nice. yeah, this should’ve broken out today if there was any chance of a strong move up today. i didn’t want to hold all day and risk it.
stopped out again on my other FSLR for even (lost in trading costs though).
Looks like 112.50 on the SPY will be resistance.
Woo,
Did you see how STRONG I said yesterday that FSLR will not make a high above 140 before earning. You see with all these bullishness and HUGE HUGE rally in all stocks and market FSLR never made a hig above 140. I said this STRONGLY yesterday morning and now you see EXACTLY what I said.
SWBB
i’m fine with it not breaking today. with earnings coming up on the 29th, there was a good chance it wouldn’t gap up too strongly. it comes with trading prior to earnings and i traded my stock based on the possibility of it not breaking out. still doesn’t mean that it will not break it completely.
i’ll play the breaks of the trend line, and sit out otherwise.
more FSLR at $37.55.
There it goes, didn’t even get close to 112.50.
Neg divergence on SPY 30 min stoch and RSI.
here’s what happened with the VIX. I talked about a drop to that trend line happening in last nights ETF subscription:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p20699988574&a=204018771
Now we’re sitting below the 200ma ($23.38), and unless we can get above it, the market may rise into closing.
shorted 2k AMZN at $116.48
Ibelieve today will be a slightly down day after 3 days of triple digit gains
if the VIX can rise 4-5 more cents, we can get a much stronger drop in the market.
VIX 23.34 weeeeeeeeeeeee!
Gift From Fed Stops as Profits Shrink at Banks Led by JPMorgan
By Dawn Kopecki and Dakin Campbell – Jul 26, 2010 4:05 PM
”The latest data by Freddie Mac, in which the 30 Year Fixed just dropped to a new fresh all time low of 4.56%, down 1 bp from the last two weeks, is about the worst news possible. While the short end is still cheap (and in the case of 2 Year, near record), the ongoing flattening is a death knell for anyone who still relies on funding curves to a some profit.”
-
The Fed’s near-zero target rate for interbank overnight lending that has buoyed profits for so long will have an opposite effect in coming quarters, said Christopher Whalen, a Federal Reserve Bank of New York analyst in the 1980s and co- founder of Institutional Risk Analytics in Torrance, California.
“That’s the gift from the Fed,” Whalen said of the rate. “But at the same time, the cash flow on your assets eventually starts to re-price and match the low-rate environment. The zero- rate environment is eventually bad for everybody.”
“There’s no loan demand, and long-term rates have declined so much,” Deutsche Bank’s O’Connor said. “So as you look out over the next few quarters, it’s a potentially very dire situation for the overall industry.” …
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-26/gift-from-fed-stops-as-profits-shrink-at-banks-led-by-jpmorgan.html
This has been an issue that they continue to sweep under the rug and limit news on. They make all the news rosy about housing but in true fact even with lowest interest rates on record foreclosures and bankrupcies are breaking all records too. How do they expect a recovery without jobs? How will people get loans with no jobs and banks that won’t loan any money? Housing is the backbone of this economy and without it they are feeding you BS.
Plus isn’t it funny how they say nothing about all the banks that are going broke? The list grows longer day by day. So one has to ask themselves if banks are going broke what kind of chance do I have? It is very evident that logic does not mean a tinkers dam. People believe what they want but trust me the day of reconing is not far off. JMHO
Much closer than most think!
Dsvaill, you’re correct and the banks owns lots of homes that they’re not putting on market so there is not a big dump on the market causing avalanch of forclosure.
Also this all coordinated between the banks/bankers & Fed/government. Nothing happen just because the markets are rigged and they always were and will be. We just need to play by the rules and hold your nose when you trade, i guess.
Well actually the dump of the REO’s on the market won’t cause more forclosures in the fact they are already in foreclosure. Dumping the REO’s on the market will cause home prices to fall down bigtime that is what they are worrying about. Excess inventory at reduced prices makes for a double dip to occur.
Got a notice that I had did not have enough margin for my positions and I had to get rid of some equity by 3:50pm so I liquidated my short USO position [I've been desperately waiting for a gap down]..
USO is now down -2.00%.. wow.
I was on 2x leverage too.
Oh yeah, I sold at the open when USO was up. Hahaha damn.
very nice trade… definitely worked out
I know some website who are charging people thousends of dollar to tell them what to do. They have been calling for rally in Oil since last week. On monday before market opened I posted and I said OIL is in a very STRONG resistence and should fall. I said the only possible is an exuhsted one day rally and then crash down. Well you see that even with all HUGE HUGE HUGE rally this week oil never made a new high because I said so and even though those website who charge people too many dollars are saying oil should go higher. This is how strong I make my calls. SWBB
I have some STRONG call on SPY and some stocks that are going to break to the upside HUGE, and I will let you know latter
SWBB
i thought you were loading up on shorts HUGE since the SPY 112s?
Woo,
This morning I said no. I said market could go higher but will close below 112.35 and I said this when market was 112.35. market is still very bullish and you see even with gold and oil crashed down but market is still holding. That does not mean we may not see more consolidation but I am 99% sure that correction will be moderate and we will see 1128 in few days in S&P. The more we go higher there will be more HUGE HUGE HUGE correction after rally is done. So I am watching the big boys to see when I should load my shorts, Please note that I am not saying 1128 is the level we should go short HUGE, I need to see the reaction to 1128 to tell you.
Woo he changes his mind and always tells you when he makes all this money. He has no clue what the market will do.
Yeah, his post is a little confusing. No one is always right.
ya think? From yesterday: Good morning guys. I am looking to go short in this market HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE when SPY hit 111.5
I don’t think anyone cares what you think anymore…
hi Idan, what u think about CX CEMEX
Hey, If it closes above $10 on the hourly chart, i think it will shove much much higher. You can also buy it around here, but rememeber that you NEED a stop, don’t buy it and just hope it’ll go up. If it closes above 10.00, your stop is clearly right below 10.
Bought SPXU (3X Short of SPX) at $30.50. Starting to get bearish about this market. Also have buy orders for SDS 35 calls. Commodity stocks (in coal, steel and copper sectors) are breaking down hard. They usually lead the market. Commiting about 10% of my trading account and sitting with 90% cash
Hi, Idan
I want to bet on LVS earning tomorrow, I feel it will post good earning with Asia new casino. How do you think?
I don’t like playing stocks before earnings, but if it breaks $26 due to earnings and you want to buy it then, that’s the perfect entry with a stop right below.
VIX is back below the 200ma and the 1111 area seems to be holding.
Idan,
If AMZN closes below 116.20 is that a good sign for shorting it down to 110?
thanks
That is a good sign for sure, but i wouldn’t over short AMZN if you already have more of the stock. I would like to see 114.95 break south to short a little more.
Idan,
If it breaks $114.95 where do you see that going?
Is the head and shoulders in play for it to tank further…maybe fill the gap to $94?
Yeah if it breaks 114.95 maybe, but you should be out of your trade already since we closed above 116.20.
we’re currently right in the middle of a channel, and as idan was saying, it’s better to wait for that additional confirmation. the market could easily run up to the top of the channel, and that could be painful if it happens overnight.
Woo/Idan, can I get your thoughts on GOOG?
I posted a chart on that up on the commentary. I think it might be ready to push higher but i’d wait for one more day of confirmation above 490.75
Interesting close on the SPY 111.53
Yeah… leaving that ambiguity into tomorrow… very tough.
Looks like my call for markets to lose 1-2% down today was accurate for Gold and Oil (made $$$ on my SCO and DZZ) However I was way off on all other indices, but still made a small profit in any case.
So,as we’re overbought on all time frames, rallying on lower and lower volume, VIX NOT confirming rallies, and barely hovering above moving averages a few of which are still declining, plus fundamentally having absolutely no reason to be at these levels, I’m feeling we see a sell off very very soon.
Add the fact that most folks (not just on this board) are feeling we at least hit 1135 on the SPX, gives a good reason why that won’t happen and we go lower before getting to that level. The market seems to want to make most people wrong whenever possible.
Obviously I could be wrong, and as always NEVER advising anybody to follow my advice, just sharing my opinion that the rally is out of steam and we will reverse direction tomorrow.
Good luck to you all!
Thanks always appreciate your thoughts … i agree may only get to 113.20 on spy
AAFLCB,
Your very welcome my friend. Yeah, 113.20 on the SPY may be it, that would make sense to me, or even lower than that. I think we go down hard Wednesday but don’t plan on adding any new short positions to the large list I already have. Gotta keep some cash in reserve, as always.
Good luck, and I’ll catch you at around noon Eastern time, or slightly later.
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