Woo:
SPX 1 month:
There’s a break on the 1 month chart trend lines. You can consider a short if we break back below that line, but I wouldn’t go short at all until then.
SPX 6 month chart:
I would like to see the market above 1106. With the RSI breaking north, the market is still bullish, and unless we open under that RSI, there’s a good chance we could break north of 1106, then 1111. If this happens we’re looking at a lot more bullishness to come.
Good morning guys. I am looking to go short in this market HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE when SPY hit 111.5 This is 50% retracment of the entire correction and we should get a sizable drop even if we want to go higher. We may gat a few points fake break out of it like 111.7 or 111.8 but then we get sell off. big boys will have hard time to get this market to that level though, but big boys know thier job very well and I am sure they will a good job and will create this opportunity for us.
AMZN is in my radar for short. may be around 120~122 I go short HUGE HUGE HUGE
OIL is close to a VERY VERY VERY strong resistence, but I will look for a spike and one day exhusted gap up and the crash down this week.
SWBB
Thanks Sam
I Agree — I Believe the market will tank big time after hitting 113 spy
I’m already short huge on crude oil.
I’m holding on to this one, I think we see $76-77 this week…will post a chart later.. gotta go now.
this sam thing is getting old. it’s pretty obvious who sam really is…i mean is it just me who sees this or what?
I think Sam Zee and exaltedangel are all the same posters. Idan or Woo can you look into this for the board please?
No disrespect to anyone if I’m wrong but its the feeling i get….
same feelings here.
grammer is the tip-off, so is posting time.
it was fun for a while but enough already, lets get down to making some money!
i think their ip addresses are different.
i don’t really care if they are the same or a different person.
we tapped SPY 111.5 at the close today, Sam should be short HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE. Good luck Sam
FSLR will probably break the 140 area today if things go right. If not today, I’m fine with waiting a bit, I think it should go at least a few points higher to satisfy some EW definitions.
Hey Woo, they will post thier earning late this week and I do not think price can pass 140 before earning which is a big big resistence. What would you expect after earning? Huge drop or Huge gap up?
yeah i posted in the subscriber area, that since we’re still 3 days ahead of earnings, we might not get the break just yet. Just need to watch the $137.50 area for a possible drop before then.
There’s a lot of people who are looking for FSLR to destroy earnings. FSLR is generally a very volatile earnings mover going 10+% up or down historically. I’m leaning towards a break north, and I still think it’s very possible that we get the break above $140 prior to earnings.
I don’t know if I’ll risk the earnings move though, and may pull out most of my position prior to earnings, and play a very small call position prior to then.
still holding removed stop might add it back a little later..
Yeah I’m fine with FSLR as long as it is above $137.50. The chances of a break above $140 are a lot higher than a move below $137.50 prior to earnings. I added a bit more at the dip since we didn’t break, and will see how it plays out into EOD. $140 actually isn’t that large a resistance in terms of long term FSLR.
woo,
5 min chart ?wedge? about to break out above on FSLR
Ok sold my AAPL at 259.5 and bought some BGZ at 14.5
dang it, too aggressive on the BGZ
Still Holding Short.. Until Dow 10600-10800.
YRCW FLYING………………….. looing for .62cents
WDC bounced as expected
http://chart.ly/ppvszk
AMD now at $8,
I’m up over 80 cents on 100,000 shares.
This is way too easy .. man.. way too easy.
nice trade, Sam.
You said you covered your position in AMD last week!@!!!
i don’t think he’s trading with real money.
anyways, we’re on our way to 1150…
i’ve been saying that for a while now, no surprise to me we are going up.
what i’m wondering about is where we go from there.
i’m starting to think it will not be down.
perhaps down a little but will the market not love the fact that the Republicans are going to win big time in a few months?
that could push us up to 1200?
whether he’s trading with real or fake money, if the analysis is there to support his suggestion that’s good for others. if not, we all know to ignore and move on.
market seems pretty bullish to me. but let’s see if it can pick up some steam here at the 1111.
Any thoughts on Shorting X and shorting SPG ?
Today is definitely not a shorting day, i think the market has a few % higher to go..
Thanks Idan
HWD is back on my radar.
going to be patient with it and see what happens.
Jusbreal… Do you know when is YRCW earning?
cant find it on earnings >com but as soon as I find out I will post it. Just keep in mind that the company may do a R/S but their EBITA just went from a deep negative to a positive 30-40 million but they too like GM have aproblem with their pensioneers which may eventually BK the Co. Good luck im just in with previous profits of AMZN ( but up Huge from .33 last week. Gl to all and Be careful.
Thnx!!
Earnings will be Aug 3 before the bell…
GS and AAPL are the drag on the market I look to see the market sell off EOD. JMHO
Dsavil, you have almost always been on the point with your predictions, and I appreciate your input.
would you be kind enough to look into AMZN and tell me what you think about shorting the shares about right here!
I scored big on them last week, but i’m kindda lost now since every analyst is upgrading them although we had our first downgrade on the shares today.
I personally think that it will be sub $100 dollars but this MKT is just insane…..
TIA
Personally I would wait until market over all trends back down after it rises. Due to it’s unimpressing earnings and the fact it fell strong on Friday of last week it did rally back to its range of approx 118. In the fact it did not meet the consensus of .54 and came in at .45, something is not all that great even though it’s profits exceeded year to year by 46%. I realize hind sight is always 20/20 but last Friday would have been the perfect time to take a scalp on the short side. In my estimation when it rises back to that 118-120 range then short it but keep tight stops. Long term I agree with you that this stock has a good probablility of falling into the 100-105 range. Hope that helps and always remember never chase a stock. GLTU
Thank you for your time and writing back. GL 2U
Woo, if you see market are bullish, what is your resistance level for swine trader?
looks like the first major hump is at 1136. Might not get there cleanly since 1122 long term resistance is around as well.
Feel free to call me a lunatic, but the same planetary alignment that brought us the Great Depression, rears it’s ugly head again between today and August 3rd. It has the potential to change our lives in ways that most cannot conceive of. Laugh it off if you must, but why not sit on the sidelines until this passes. Don’t give greed a chance to destroy your financial fortunes. Good luck to all!
Thanks
It will be a freat time to short …
I can’t put my finger on it but this market is giving me an uneasy feeling..I am now all in cash i sold the YRCW and the TBT position both for profits and will wait to see the next move, like rando sitting on my hands and happy !!!! I do not like the bond action it seems likethe 10 year is catching a bid and so is the SPY,that troubles me
Nice timing to get out of YRCW
It’s about time i timed something right !!!!!
GS just caught some wind in its sails and it is apparent the market wants to continue the rally. EOD sell off is looking weak right now but you never know.
anyone has forcast about gld?
Daily Gld chart looks like lower high and lower low in the down trend
Does the 200 MA not even come into play here. On the SPX it’s sitting right around 1113 which happens to be the high for the day. I believe the overall market will at least consolidate or even take a stumble this week.
if market can pop a little higher into close, the RSI will peak over the resistance, and we’re going to get a lot more rising. 200ma should serve as good resistance for now.
Thanks woo. I hate to go against your calls but the one time I did 2 weeks ago it paid off. Not that I’m using your opinions as a contrarian indicator. I just feel you’re more of a conservative trader and use different signal than I do. Then again I’m usually a little early on my calls anyhow
not at all. the market definitely doesn’t have all the support it needs yet to get to 1136+. These are projections based on additional support that needs to be fulfilled. market is overbought on a number of levels, and I don’t have any SPY calls here because of the resistances that are still left. We can easily backtest a number of support areas below here, and fundamentally, i’m still long term bearish on the market, but am playing the charts by day/week/month.
Bought some SPY Sep 110 puts on rejection of 200 MA.
Market is finally realizing that the housing numbers were not as great as they first thought. REO’s are bombarding the market as banks want to rid the inventory and forclosures are in record numbers. Look out below the EOD sell off is underway.
i wish the whole world would realize that the banks still have a ridiculous amount of houses that they are keeping from the market in hopes that prices drive up. it’s all a ridiculous amount of manipulation right before everyone’s eyes, i can’t believe that people are buying what the banks and government are pulling. in the end they are just going to make things worse.
Woo,
Precisely! Those points are a good part of why I’m so bearish, and as a swing trader, keep holding short and not wanting to trade long. I’ve been getting killed the past week or so, but was up substantially on several positions prior to that, so all is still well. Getting extremely frustrated with all the media spin and manipulation going on as you mention however, and know it will eventually stop and the markets will tank, and hard!
Yes I agree whole heartedly with you Goingtoretireoneday
The 5 min oversold bounce in SPY didn’t happen, more weakness to come I think. More sellers than buyers it seems.
I would be short the futures in here with a tight stop
This is somewhat wishful thinking of course, but I’m getting a feeling we closer much lower, possibly even in the red. Anybody with me??
I don’t know I think that’s a long shot. I think any selloff would be orderly at least for today I don’t expect any violent down moves.
Gold and Oil seem to be moving in lockstep downward. Go SCO and DZZ! Holding both!
Unless the financials turn red, whick I highly doubt, this market is a green day as usuall for Mondays. Bulls are in complete control as the unstopable train to paradise keeps a chugging up. The dollar is tanking as I speak. All aboard!! Up up and away!
5 min oversold bounce should be over 111.50 was quickly rejected.
I see a big negative div on the 1 min RSI if that carries to the 5 and 30 mins by tomorrow then we’ll get a nice backtest.
They will ram it up over 100 points on the Dow before it is over.
and a little over 100 points today
I came pretty close now didn’t I? I believe 100.81 is over 100 lol.
Just added some more DXD, TYP, and TWM.
Don’t forget TZA buy it.
Have to be careful with TZA.
TNA is above the 200ma as well as a long term trend line. i’ve been recommending bullishness on TNA in the subscriber section. I know 5waves is up a good amount on his TNA investment. I wouldn’t short TNA (switch to TZA) until it’s back below the 50ma.
Sort of like don’t short FAS(switch to FAZ)until it’s back below the 50ma?
actually the 50% retrace of a major rise is sitting at $21.75. So I would wait for that to break AFTER the 50ma to short to be able to hold a decent amount. 50ma is not enough there for me =)
The 1 year SPX chart RSI trend line broke. I would be careful with shorts.
first break of that RSI trend line in nearly 3 months…
Like I have been saying all along Woo the train to paradise is unstopable. I said they would ram it over 100pts today and the SPY roared up and the next stop is the 1130 range. I totally agree withn you playing short here is pure suicide. Go long and be strong!
yeah, we also regained the 200ma into close. pretty bullish. we can get a small backtest in the morning. unless we get some ridiculous news about the economy falling apart, i wouldn’t be looking for a large retrace or drop just yet. if it happens, the 200ma break is a good place to take out long positions.
i’m still sitting on FSLR and doing pretty well overall on my avgs on stock and calls.
Woo,
What is your thought on $SPX EOD on the 50% Retracement of the 2007 HI of 1576.09 and 2008 LOW of 666.79? I haven’t heard anyone mention it yet today. The 50% fib is 1115.62 and EOD was 1115.01.. 11/09/09 thru 12/21/09 that was some serious resistance, and then showed support on 12/31/09, 01/04/10, and 01/21/10.
actually the 50% retrace is 1121-1122
we’ve seen that area hit/support/break/resist a number of times.
I mentioned this area in comment 12 briefly, but didn’t explain why (sorry).
We could open lower, but I am generally leaning towards more rising to come in the market with this 200ma break, RSI break, as well as a number of supports that are below here. Also the fib projection towards the sub 1000s was just knocked out by 1111 breaking. 1106, was also the 61% retrace of one of the major moves, and that was knocked out as well. All of these are bullish signals, and the market could be doing some weird corrections to explain all these breaks, but it’s looking a little dangerous to short if you ask me. but as most people here know, i am a bit more conservative in my trading. i’ll load shorts when i get more confirmation to the short side. until then, my bias is long.
Woo,
Thanks for the correction. I had my 50% hand-drawn, one of those, “from about there to about there things?”.. Yes you are right 1121-1122.
Thanks for your insight.
Ok guys, congradulation to people who was able to read my commnets this morning. When future was down and SPY pre market was arounf 110.2 I POSTED AND I TOLD YOU that big boys will take SPY to 111.5~111.8, I TOLD YOU that even befor market opens. Now I am looking to load my shorts. The best thing that could happen is that big boys open the market gap up toward 112 and then sell off which will be the best opportunity. I dropped a majority of my long in ISRG with HUGE HUGE HUGE HUGE profit but still holding 20% of them.
MY anothe rSTRONG call this morning was about oil. OIL is dealing with a HUGE HUGE resitence and you saw it did not participate in market rally. I am looking for a exchusted gap up on Wednesday on oil and then a crash down.
IMPORTANT ANALYSIS FROM ME, IMPORTANT ANALYSIS FROM ME, IMPORTANT ANALYSIS FROM ME …… OK, I have a very STRONG stock that I believe will go up another 20% in a very short term. That stock is now making a cup and there will be a handle for the cup in next few days. Once we get the handle I will jump in stock HUGE, HUGE, HUGE, HUGE, HUGE. and that is where I believe stock will advance another 20% once it breaks the prior high, VERY IMPORTANT. OK what is the name of this stock? I will let you know tomorrow.
SWBB
As a new member I would like to say hello to everybody and thank you for the many interesting posts I’ve been reading here for quite a while now. I soon hope to start submitting my own humble contributions.
Woo, why is in your opinion the 1 year RSI trendline still topical? I understand the importance of the breakout back in March, but I am not sure why it should be still significant. Thank you for explanation as well as your many previous wonderful calls and comments.
Respectfully, lynxx
Welcome Lynxx
I too am fairly new to the board
Hi
welcome to you both! it’s always good to see new blood. feel free to leave comments and questions. we want a good mix of beginners and seasoned traders. often the simplest questions are the ones we need to remember and take into consideration most. and questioning each others’ analysis and thoughts is a great way to help reach more thought out conclusions.
let’s all try and make some good money.
The trend lines on this particular RSI chart are VERY clean. I treat it like an additional tool to my normal analysis. There are only a few times when this chart comes in to play, and this is one of those times where it is going to prove useful. Also, the other RSI’s aren’t as clean as this and as easy to draw trend lines for, making them more useful for overbought/oversold conditions which can easily go more oversold or more overbought. this trend line is more significant than that because it gives us a direct point to watch for bullishness or bearishness for a particular stock (and in case SPX). It is also nice that it coincides with the long term 200ma break/hold (in this case a break). This allows for much less resistance for more overbought conditions on this longer term chart towards RSI = 70 or so, which could easily result in almost 1030-1050 or so (depending on the volatility of the move).
Thank you.
Woo
“This allows for much less resistance for more overbought conditions on this longer term chart towards RSI = 70 or so, which could easily result in almost 1030-1050 or so (depending on the volatility of the move).”
Did you mean 1130-1150??
yes 1130-1150.
thanks for catching that.
The USD/CAD is about to go to parity by end of this month at the rate we are going up..
Jesus christ, by the time s&p 1250 hits the USD/CAD is going to 0.90..
At 1400 on the s&p the USD/CAD will be 0.70.. jesus harvard here I come.. at a 30% rebate!!
ALL THESE RALLIES ARE HAPPENING ON A DROP OF THE USD.. NOT ON REAL BUYERS.
I dunno.. a break of 10600-10800 would make me believe the bottom is in for july.. a very strange occurence.. to bottom in july..
After studying charts and talking with some fellow traders tonight, I’m even more convinced that this rally is just a head fake/bull trap/dead cat bounce. Arrogant bulls who unprovoked, are vigorously rubbing the recent rally in the faces of bears/shorts, are walking right into a trap with huge smiles on their faces, and will not get out of the trap as far as I can foresee.
When this happens us bears/shorts as usual will NOT rub it in their faces, as they seem to like to do to us for some reason.
Looking for a close in the red of 2% more more Tuesday.