3:30pm
I want to end below 106.80 for more conviction into tomorrow on the SPY… just bought some SRS at 27.05 with a stop at 26.92, We’ll see where that goes
——3:40pm, moved stop up to 27.10, to make sure i’m making a profit.
2:46pm
107.20 SPY did hit like i mentioned it would. Since it hit the conviction from the bears has not been strong enough. The bears have to break 107-107.20 to get more cofirmed downside into tomorrow to reach 106.10-106.20.
2:03pm
Bernanke: Outlook of the Economy remains unusually uncertain.
With that the stocks tumble away from the inverse H&S formation that we had on the 10 minute. My belief is a break of 108 could end this rally and shove us back down to 107.20 by the end of the day. A break back above 108.65 will be bullish.
LIVE TRADING today at 1:10pm EST, make sure to register—->
12:39pm
AAPL 10 minutes has reversed about an hour ago, but more importantly it is about to reach it’s 38.2% retrace for today’s action (from open to low). If it breaks it to the upside, ($259.60), i think it is ready to rally quite a bit. 259.60 is also a great place to go short with a stop above that retracement, or above the 50% retrace:
11:18am
It looks like today is the perfect opposite of yesterday. The bears are basically forming the exact patterns that the bulls did yesterday. A gap up in the morning reversed, and now breaking important levels downwards. After 108 breaks, 107.20 is support.
11:05am
SPY 1 minute action suggests that we do continue to move lower currently. There is a very easy way to know how strong the day is. If the SPY makes higher lows and higher highs throughout the day, you have to remain bullish, but today we are constantly making some lower lows and lower highs, so the momentum is remaining bearish for now.
10:58am
AAPL opens today RIGHT AT $265… which is the resistance caused by the left shoulder of the H&S formation. If $265 is the top, then we might have a symmetrical H&S formation with the neckline still at 243.
10:51am
Sorry I had a meeting this morning. However, let’s look at the SPY 60 minute, we can see that we opened right at channel resistance, that’s why we sold off so vigorously in the morning. That said, the fact that we are touching channel resistance another time without touching the channel support is very bullish. As lon gas we remain above 108 today we can actually break that channel resistance at the end of the day:
Sign up to Alerts & Analytics for just $49.99/mo
Follow Idan and Sun Tze’s 1 million dollar portfolio via email! You can also view the track record here, to better understand the service here’s our last trade:
We are buying RGA (Reinsurance Group of America) at $45.90. We are setting a stop at $41.35. Our target is $55.
Fundamental/Valuation Analysis:
- 12-month earnings growth is estimated at 14%. The stock is only trading less than 7 times its 12-month forward earnings, making its P/E to earnings growth ratio (five-year expected) only at 0.67.
- Quarterly earnings year over year as well as quarterly year over year revenue growth are fantastic sitting at 425% and 37% respectively.
- Even after all capital expenditures, the cash has close to $2 billion of cash, which is about 2/3 of the company’s market cap.
- The company’s bare bone book value per share is close to $57, so the stock is trading away below its book
- Lowest target on this stock according to 9 brokers is $55, which is roughly the company’s book value per share.
Technical/Momentum Analysis:
- The stock is trading below its 10 SMA, 50 SMA and 200 SMA, which is bearish. However, right now it is looking to be in the bottoming process as it is forming a potential double bottom formation.
- RSI is making higher lows
- MACD/Signal is also trending upward
- ATR registered a high level recently. This was accompanied by a wide gap down in mometum.
The tells us that a trend change is about to take place and the recent selloff was exhaustive.
Unbelievable!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwX9RXFRJD4
Do not say, you don’t say. After further analysis and looking at big boys I think F is bullish but I think after earning it may tank. Of course everyone is responsible to do their own analysis, BUT I will see my position tomorrow after a little rally and won’t take risk to earning.
SWBB
It’s that simple.. it failed to break 11.96.. down it goes. Same with the market failing to complete the 108.60-108.65 neckline of inverse H&S formation.
so..you are anticipating more downside tomorrow despite the close above 106.80? I held on to my SDS anticipating an am tumble….maybe to test 1050′s or do you think we go even lower?
i’m holding my SRS position that i bought at 3:30pm, but i’m not necessarily overly bearish until we break 1058 on the SPX… that said, i think there is a good chance we test it.
am I still watching that 108 level to throw in the towel on the short side and realize we are heading back up?
Idan,
Big day for my AMZN Aug puts tomorrow
I am thinking it sells off around 5% after they report to approx $113
I dont think it will break the $109 mark in the next month to lead its way to the gap to 90.
Trading options the day after earnings can be so volatile
If AMZN opens at $113 or so do you think its a good idea to get rid of them early at market open?
Anybody here think going long SLW might be a good play to hold for a week or even less? I’m thinking of buying some tomorrow but not sure, and would really like some opinions if you guys have a second.
According to options, about 4x more people are bullish about SLW
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=SLW+Options
So I’d bet yes.
Kenjisan,
Thanks for taking the time to reply, and for the link, I really appreciate it.
that’s just based on options, I would still wait on woo or idan or just idan during the live trading
Thanks, and will do.