Intraday Commentary ~ 07/20/2010

By
FocalEquity
– July 20, 2010Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models

4:10pm
Market ends RIGHT at the 1085 resistance, but nonetheless we end at the highs of the day confirming strength from the bulls. We will see if we pull back from this levels on the ES.

2:10pm
For those people who went long MMM based on my live trading earlier today at 81.39 (3minute chart below). My stop is at 81.90 currently, and i’m about to get stopped out (with 0.6%+). If you want to take more risk and hope for more reward i’d put the stop in the 81.70 level.



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12:27pm
Even though the dollar is way off the highs, the UUP (Dollar ETF) has found support at 23.95-24.00 and bounced off slightly that level. I would like to see the dollar strengthen some more and not hit the 23.95 level again to feel more bearish about the market.

11:12am
Strong bounces throughout the markets right now, with the SPY trying to go in for that gap fill. So far the rally seems very strong, however we have not made any highs on financials just yet (GS, JPM). And the SPY might find resistance in 107-107.20.

10:27am
BA (Boeing) tested it’s support early today AGAIN, in it’s triangle formation you can see on the 60 minute, that if we close today near the lows, BA will be ready to fall tomorrow very fast:

10:05am
It’s time for Poll of the day!

Will the SPY end the day above 106.20?

  • Yes it will. (48%, 30 Votes)
  • Yes it will. AND we end green today (22%, 14 Votes)
  • No it won't. AND we confirm a close below 105.90 today. (16%, 10 Votes)
  • No it won't. (14%, 9 Votes)

Total Voters: 63

Loading ... Loading ...

9:59am
GLD on the daily could be getting a bounce soon after falling for about 3 weeks. As mentioned last week, we had an inverse H&S formation back between Dec-April 2010 with a slight ascending neckline. We rested that neckline in may after breaking out of it in early may. Well, now we are very close to it again (at 114.90-115.10). If GLD breaks below it, i expect strong selling, but the first bounce should be bought. Here’s the daily:

9:49am
Financials seem to be doing the best out of the gate right now… but they should be hitting on some resistance right now (which is the low of yesterday’s charts).

9:46am
After getting stopped yesterday from my AAPL trade (as it broke back above $243) with about a 2.50% profit. I see AAPL opened at 243 and sold off YET AGAIN. I will look to short AAPL one more time if i can get it in the 242 area and hope it never sees that number again. Here’s the 60 minute H&S formation:

9:36am
Moment of truth here as we open below 106.10… let’s see where we end up in the next 20 minutes. If we shoot down from here, we could actually see 104.70 today. Here’s the 60 minute to show you the levels of the SPY. I am buying a lot of SPY puts here (in addition to my other ones from yesterday).

12:01am
The futures were down considerably after-hours due to a couple of companies missing the revenue/sales forecasts (such as IBM). This is a big problem because while cost cutting may be effective, the bigger picture is that the demand for goods has not grown, hence the economic situation isn’t great.

That said, we did make a higher low in the futures (compared to the low intraday yesterday). And in the cash markets we did break 107.20 on the SPY. So overall, my thesis remains similar. If we fall below 106.05-106.20 i think we move much lower, but for now the bulls still remain in control of the markets.

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About FocalEquity

Sun Tze is one of the founders of FocalEquity.com. After going through multiple transitions, Tze, Charlie Cheng and their new team are bringing new changes and features to the new FocalEquity.com in 2011. Tze is specialized in financial modeling and has a masters degree in Finance.