LIVE TRADING VIDEO: 1:00pm EST/6:00pm GMT
2:11pm
On the SPY 1 minute it looks like we are forming a higher low at 106.70 in comparison to the former low today at 106.58, that’s somewhat bullish cuz the market can now rally past 107.18 and start making new highs on an inverse H&S pattern on the 10 minute (over last 2 days), with neckline at 107.18. If it falls back to 106.58 though, we will have a H&S formation on the 1/5 minute scales with 106.58 being the neckline.
1:52pm
After testing the 146.25 level of former support being resistance on GS… GS failed to rally back above it. In the live trading I pointed it out as a great shorting opportunity. A break of it would also be a good buying opportunity in the future. GOOG’s important level is 464, a break of that could be a nice shorting level.
12:52pm
If you’re a bull on the market, you’re liking today’s action so far, especially in the XLF as it could still be forming an inverse H&S formation on the daily. To confirm that completion the XLF will have to rally above it’s 200 SMA daily or $15. A break of today’s lows will nullify that inverse H&S. Here’s the daily:
12:03pm
AAPL is breaking down it’s H&S formation. It broke it down earlier and just retested 243 again, beautiful short opportunity.
cforms contact form by delicious:days
12:01am
Here’s a 60 minute chart of the SPY, with all the important levels below. It looks like we are in a descending channel bounded by the last two highs and former lows. I also want to point out that as I mentioned in my video i expect 106.10 to be the real important support before we fall strongly to 104.70 (the H&S neckline).
For every 10 pts we sell off in the markets, I will add more naked short calls of FAZ.
plus, im bullish. but also bearish.. but i know nothing 
The premiums for JAN 2011 are huge.. and I’m busy during the fall.. so a nice 20-30% ROI in 4-5 months seems like easy cash to me..
even if the calls aer exercised.. well these things decay.. so no worries
as for AMD, im likely going to sell the JAN 2011 $7.50 calls.. and aim for a 1/7.50 = 13.33% ROI by jan 2010.. i think we’ll be around 1100 by EOY.. so if all goes as planned. everything will expire worthlesss.
SWBB.
I told you about huge sell off las week Wednesday. On Wednesday I said following:
Big boys will open market down: =========> Big boys did EXACTLY what I told you
Big boys will rally market up after open: =========> Big boys did EXACTLY what I told you
Big boys will rally market toward 110~111: =========> Big boys did NOT EXACTLY what I told you, but they were close
Big boys get ready for a huge sell off: =========> Big boys did EXACTLY what I told you
My portfolio exploded several times last week from money. I do not know what to do with alll these money.
Now this week I will look at big boys this morning and I will let you know what they will do this week
SWBB
S- some
A- aimless
M- muppet
I think I ran into Sam over the weekend. I was in a public restroom and someone(Sam?) came out of the stall and proclaimed ” I told you it wouldn’t stink! “.
Sam – Love your big boys posts. Keep updating!
Sam,
I suggest that you don’t always begin your comments with “I told you so”. It just doesn’t sound very good in general. Please tone it down a bit or we will be forced to take some action to address this. Thanks for the comments though.
hahahaha pure entertainment
It seems like the more he’s told not to use that phrase the more he uses it.
I believe you forgot to post your google trade that was guaranteed to double your money in 2 days last week. Ah, unless, perhaps you are full of turd.
Sam satarizes the bullying, bluster and falsification of history that got us into this economic mess. His caricature of the arrogant buffoon trader is meant only to entertain.
seems to me like 1050 is an important level, as a bull i don’t want to see that break.
almost doesn’t matter though, pot and agu aren’t really following the markets iright now. they will though if we break lower i’m guessing.
Idan & Woo
Is there anyway you can block Sam from posting? All his post are crap and it’s starting to sound like the Yahoo board.
Thanks.
block him? but he’s our window into the souls of the big boys.
how else will we know what they are up to?!
If we see more complaints about Sam, we will probably take some action.
if SAM leaves I leave..
hes clearly kidding, but hes right about following big boys..
that goes without saying, i assumed exaltedangel09=zee=sam…all the same guy.
Shorted some BP in premarket at 36.25
The right shoulder of the inverse H&S is forming as I write this. Again this market could trade between 10115 and 10350 for a while (right shoulder) and its true nature will be discover very soon. I am still parked on the long side and with 25% of my portfolio invested in that direction (75% cash). My main trading vehicles are TNA and short VXX. If we trade below 10050 with a significant bearish candle followed by another on the 60min chart in $INDU I will close and go short since the move down will be significant. However I do not think this will happen (because it is what everybody is talking about) and we will go higher from here. As I see it the move down was necessary to get shorts in (and that is why I posted that we were going to get a 150-250 move down once we hit 10350). Now the fuel for the upside has been put in the tank and we might get a short squeeze from this point on. We will see…I am by no means a Bull or Bear I just write on what I see the action is and I recommend all traders not to bias your trades in one direction and always have an exit point that reflects a change in your view of market direction.
I am ready to fire another 25% of my portfolio in the long direction once I see VXX trading below 24.
shorted 5k AMZN at 118.62
bot 15k VXX at $26.52
That’s $593,100 in AMZN and $397,800 in VXX
You are throwing down ~$1,000,000?
Felt really ballzy today after watching the Asian Mkts and the situation with hungary…. so I figured it maybe a good chance of seeing some downward movement in the MKTS as a follow through of Friday but today wasn’t a good day, however i will try back at it tomorrow again depending on if I’m in front of a computer..
anyone doing anything with AAPL?
looks like it has broken its trendling…not good.
trendline
thinking about getting long here at 243, down 3% I sold it in my IRA at 254 last week and had to wait for it to settle, now I got cash ready to go and an itchy trigger finger. They report tomorrow
long it at 242.5
$116.20 seems to be the neckline for AMZN . will probably double my position ( on margin) once we break that level. what do you think IDAN or WOO?TIA
you GOTTA make sure it breaks 116.20 with a double bar break on the 10 minute first.. but yes, you should be right if that happens.
Right now, like i mentioned AAPL looks weak to me.. with a break 243 level.. it’s ready to fall down hard.
I’ve never had such a ——– lousy trading day.
I open the day selling calls on a beat down stock on the canadian markets, and ended up paying 40 x $15 in lousy spreads because I wanted to sell puts..
Next, I shorted 27000 AMD somehow at $7.24.. how the —- this happened, i have no clue..
what a —— day
bt 400 faz @ 16.22, believe this is contrary to most people who are talking market going up.
the movement makes me believe more and more that we’re headed down towards 1035 minimum…
You may be right but right now it is trending up.
Where are we?
The entire thing is a mess since it topped. Even the latest rally is impossible to label at small degrees. Both the bottom and the top are all messy too as usual. Then there is of course the immediate crash scenario, but the waves are so muddy,
let’s see if 1070 resistance can break. if not we could get a drop into the rest of the day.
The C-RSI for the spy has a smaller Positive Divergence, and in each case the market reversed direction for some period of time. This is not a huge positive divergence, but none-the-less, we do have a positive divergence to pay attention to. May mean a smaller period of time for it to act out … but, for now at this early stage, the question is whether there is enough of a divergence to act out or not?
From 11 am, there could be higher low and higher high for today
1070 held.
Only a few hours are enough for me to find out what big boys are going to do. I guess what big boys are doing now is inviting more bulls to a big trap and once they are satisfied with the number of bulls in the trap they will start selling off. I am watching SPY 106 minutes by minutes and I believe once this is broken which I guess it will sooner than later then we will easily see 1040 on S&P. Once we reach there we may see a bounce to 1060 and then another major sell off toward around 1010 by end of week for a double bottom test.
One possible plan could be that market rally toward 1080 or even 1120 and then sell off into later this week. This will happen if big boys see there are not enough bulls in trap, so they have to go higher to invite more bulls in the trap.
Of course this is just my imagination and no one has crystal ball to know exactly what is going to happen, but this is my plan.
Please pay attention that I did not say any “I TOLD YOU” in above.
haha great i have 1045-1047 level as a more important breaking down point after the SPY breaks 106. But i’m with you on that.
much better sam. and similar to what i’m looking for. =)
Hey sam are you ok? lol
lol
Here’s part of my update in the subscription section:
Currently this 6 month chart is probably my favorite just because of how cleanly it has been playing out. I think we may back test as high as 1070-1072 into tomorrow, but it will still mean that more falling can come. The gap here is fairly large and a move below 1059 will probably get us a drop to 1035 fairly easily. At this point I’m really doubting that we get back above 1100 anytime soon. There is a lot of resistance above here, and the current path of least resistance is to the south side.
Are you currently short? Sorry if I missed any earlier comments…
currently sitting on some TZA.
In BGZ earlier but don’t like the ramp here…
Leave the office for one hour and i see AMZN is up to $119.30….. UGGGGHHHHHHHHHH… may take a loss for the day, in AMZN alone but keeping 15K VXX until the end of the week prob.
Idan what do you think about TSLA?
TSLA is not the best of trades, i’d be short at 22.74 stop above 23 if possible, but that’s not great cuz we don’t have enough data.
AMZN.. put a stop above 120.70 if you can, if you’re more risk averse, don’t let it go below 120.
Correction.. don’t let it go ABOVE 120.
out at 120.00 well what a bad day
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=D&yr=3&mn=5&dy=0&id=p26025705517&a=181646175
we’re currently above that pink trend line….not so good in terms of being short. Could easily retest 124.
Looks to me market is going to bounce +100 pts. Pretty much what I figured.
Here’s the 1 year zoomed:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p80441448502&a=181956106
We need to break the highs of the day to get above that trend line. If not, we’ll probably see a drop into closing.
Won’t be a problem at all it will bust through it with avengence trust me.
oh ye of little faith…
As usual when everybody thinks the market is going down it roars right back. Classic bull trap kaboom.
market is getting a bit oversold short term at this 1072 area. won’t be easy to breakout here…if it does, i don’t expect anything too crazy.
Will hit 1080 watch and SPY will be 108 EOD.
3 pm, algo time
Scalping RIG here. 1K shares @ 49.88
*47.88
That was quick. Stopped out with a penny loss.
And the dollar comes out of nowhere to try and save the day unreal.
After watching the asian MKts I truly thought that it would be a down day but yet again they run up this mkt……………unbelievable
What are you talking about, UUP had a 7 cent trading range today, and USD/CAD traded at HOD..
Wait until USD/CAD is parity.. market will be 1200
I made 75% of the money I lost in keystrokes by just following gut instinct.
Won’t say the stock incase MMs are looking at this board
Why do I feel as if we’re going to close right at 1070???
SPY 106.87 (AH), (4pm close 107.32)???
Perhaps my tickers are off…
Yes go check the after hours. It’s a roaring for the bears!
dive mo fo dive……
feeling better about my TZA haha.
Yea at the moment is up about .33.
“THIS SUCKER’S GOIN’ DOWN.”
IBM tanking that’s why.
we closed below the long term trend line.
I hope everybody is under estimates.
obama is also saying we need to extend unemployment benefits…not exactly a positive sign for the overall economy.
who knows what MM will do into tomorrow though. we’ve seen the market pushed up on BS before haha. glta
I dont know what’s worse, telling the long term unemployed “freak you” or giving away more free money to people who say why should I work when I can get free unemployment. Neither can have a good outcome. Problem is so many cheats, and now this BP thing has freaked so many people who depend on the water. Economy is fuched.
below the Thomson Reuters consensus estimate of $24.17 billion.
3% down on IBM isn’t enough to push the market 1 full % lower..
IBM is not the only reason me thinks housing numbers are going to be worse than expected because the expected was all trumped up.
Goldman results tomorrow. Hope Woo is right that they miss estimates. I don’t like them guys working on Gods work.
yup. GS tomorrow.
aapl is tomorrow afternoon.
bidu is coming out wednesday too.
definitely going to be a fun week.
Thinking of adding to my SRS and DRV positions on any bounce tomorrow. Anybody else feeling the same way?