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Idan Koren
2:07pm
AAPL 10 minutes was trading in an ascending megaphone formation (pretty bearish pattern) for a while, if it breakdown my red line at around 251.60, i’m considering a short:
12:17pm
We are at a double top in the SPY… again showing that there’s still a lot of strength here. Until 109.10 breaks, there’s no reason to be short the market. LIVE TRADING to start again at 1PM EST tomorrow!
Woo:11:08 am EST -
UAUA is on the verge of breaking out as well, but hasn’t just yet. Wait for the break before grabbing long positions.
11:01 am EST -
VIX cracked above $25. The next time it goes above this area, there is a very good chance that we could see a very strong VIX rise with volatility in the market picking up for a few days.
10:46 am EST -
So, I’ve been watching the market in the morning, and it looks like they’re not going to give the bulls or bears anything easy.
FSLR is setting up for a possible breakout on a number of levels.
If we can get above $136 consistently we’ll see a huge rise and I’d be willing to take a huge stake in this. This is the closest we’ve been in a long time to being able to take a long position on FSLR.
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MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET
Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices 8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
30-Yr Bond Auction 1:00 PM ET
FOMC Minutes 2:00 PM ET
I was hoping to see a huge rally today so I can load my shorts, but unfourtunatly future is not up much. So what? I am going to watch big boys today and tomorrow to see what they do. SWBB
I am looking to come up with a trade plan on GOOG to double my money after earning no matter what happens. may be a combination of July vertical call 500-520 and July put 470-450, but I have to wait and think more before earning. Let me know if you have any idea.
SWBB
Short INTC premarket @ 22.35 for a quick morning scalp.
Reasoning: Once volume comes in, and retail traders are allowed to sell for profit they will do so causing selling pressure to the $21.85-$22.15 area.
Added more short @ 22.27, Avg. Short price is now 22.32.
We’ll see if the +6% gap up sustains during the day.
one possible plan that big boys could do is to open the market a little down then after we get a better than expcted number before noon then market rally toward 110-111 and then a huge sell off stat. I love to see this imaginary plan. Lets see if big boys manage to do that
SWBB
I think Today we will top out with this dead cat Bounce… and start the decline again to break the 1010 within the next 4 -5 weeks … IMHO
Have a Blessed day
mark
Got creamed yesterday on my amzn short but still holding and adding more if i can get some cash but so far doing good on my VXX position.
holding 20k VXX at $24.55
2K AMZN short at 122.70
bot 5k TZA at $34.05 will add more if i can
wish I had more cash but these days its very hard to sell hard assets to be able to trade..but hey you cant have it all….
GL to all
dsavil you were so rite on the S&P and the markets yesterday…. but I’m still holding my options on S&P lets see how this week goes……..
Like everyone some days you are right and others you are not. Take your profits when you can and never give up. As the numbers come in as not as well as expected sentiment then changes as usual. Like they say gotta know when to hold and know when to fold lol.
Idan,
Do you think FCX and X are good to short now ?
The bounces are too figurous for me here.
Idan
whats your short term and long term target on UNG?
would you rather short it or go long ?
i kniow that its a broken instrument but its have to be a trade one way or another!
or should I just stay away?
Right now to tell you the truth, i just don’t know.. we can see UNG make new lows right now, it’s very uncertain. Until it breaks above $8.. i can’t tell you at all.
Stay away, until we get better levels.
ty
Sold my SPY puts, bought at yesterday`s close. Will wait to see if 1085 gives.
I hope you guys enjoy my strong stocks. I TOLD YOU more than 1 milion times that F and UAUA ar ebullis. and now look eben when market is down F is exploding higher. I told you that I keep some of my long on F for today and now see. big boys clearly are in F
SWBB
Want to buy some FAZ, but I think it’s still a little too early (or too late …last night would have been better at the close, if I was as smart as SAM).
Still sitting on hands, 100% cash.
Lots of blogs calling for more upward movement in S&P. Great quote from one blog I enjoy reading..”hold your nose and go long”…..
Hey Robert, That may be a contrarian thought … to get ready to short
I agree. I tend to stick with FAZ / FAS and 13 / 34 crossover happening. Normally I would buy some FAZ here. I just have an uneasy feeling, which I normally don’t have. Prefer to play safe here (cash).
My guess, even if I pick the correct direction, it feels like another slow day with little movement, which would mean a small return.
So far EVRYTHING is happening EXACTLY based on what I told you this morniing before market opens. Read my post above. Market opened lower (EXACTLY AS I SAID) then start rally (EXACTLY AS I SAID) and now (EXACTLY AS I SAID) market should go to around 1110. Lets see this also happens (EXACTLY AS I SAID)
We will see
SWbb
Does anyone see a good MA top forming on the SPY?
there’s definitely a top but i’m not shorting until 109.10 breaks down.
Energy Department released oil inventories at 10.30 am this morning. It can be found at http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
It says “”Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.3 million barrels per day, up by 1.8 percent from the same period last year.”. Translation: gasoline demand is not falling. It is up as compared to last year
It also says “U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 5.1 million barrels from the previous week.” If you recall, inventories fell by 5 million barrels last week. This week it has fallen by another 5 million barrels
This is very bullish for oil. I have a large position in SU (Suncor Inc) and had sold covered calls against 50% of my position. After this report, I bought back the covered calls I had sold.
I hate to buy after the market is up for 6 days. Had to hold my nose before doing it!!
Bought some Teck calls. TCK.B.TO. I say we rally today to 1105?
put in small limit order, 400 FAS at 23. Holding nose, lol, not likely to hold overnight, if I even get the buy.
sold 5k TZA at 34.97 will buy back if I can gl to all
I thought bank earnings were supposed to be nice. Every bank I watch is down, even with spy and dow up. does somebody know something? (or financial reform bill??)
cancelling fas buy order, It feels like it will go up, but not by too much from here. Wild guess, the 3:59 bots will be selling.
HEY SAM, I TOLD YOU SO. FAS IS UP, BUT NOT BY A LOT. I HAVE A MASTER PLAN TO DOUBLE MY MONEY EVERY 10 SECONDS. I WILL MAKE SO MUCH, I WILL WIPE MY A$$ WITH 100 BILLS. IF I HAVE ENOUGH MONEY, DO YOU THINK I CAN PLAY WITH YOU AND YOUR BIG BOYS. I KNOW YOU HAVE THEM IN YOUR BACK POCKET. YOU ARE SOOOO FREAKIN COOL. I TRULY WISH I COULD BE HALF AS GREAT A TRADER AS YOU, BUT I SUPPOSE YOU ARE ONE OF A KIND.
SWWBBBWBWBWBWBBBBSSSWWWWWWBBBBB
lmao
This is the first time I recall seeing 13 / 34 crossover without any up move in FAZ (on 15 min chart). on 15 min spy, 13 / 34 looks about to cross.
I’m at a loss to explain why crossover didn’t change the direction of FAZ. Is it possible this market is being manupulated?????
No not at all…. Its beyond that my friend!
this mkt is so rigged that 15 years of experience trading means nothing
for what it’s worth, trend change followed crossover, just much more delayed than I recall seeing.
Covered my INTC shorts that I talked about pre-market
+ 877.78
BOT 1000 INTC Stock NMS 21.85 ARCA(USD) 06:47:17 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010 new
BOT 1000 INTC Stock NMS 22.06 ARCA(USD) 06:30:00 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010 new
BOT 1000 INTC Stock NMS 22.15 BATS(USD) 05:56:04 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010 new
SLD 1000 INTC Stock NMS 22.27 ISLAND(USD) 05:25:59 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010 new
SLD 2000 INTC Stock NMS 22.36 ISLAND(USD) 05:08:26 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010
Looking for an afternoon scalp now; anyone have any ideas? I’ll be posting my trade for whatever stock I choose if anyone wants to follow.
SHORT USO @ $35 x 5000
fading this up move.
I’ve been bullish on AMD for a while.. its filled its gap… im slowly entering long now at 7.50.. http://img693.imageshack.us/i/amd1.png/
So the SPY is slightly above its 50 MA now. If we close above 109.80 that`s pretty bullish I say. At the same time there is a RSI negative divergence on the 30 min, I wonder if that would play out.
there was negative divergence on a number of the smaller range charts. very fun day.
I guess that played out after all.
yup. good job keeping your eye on that =)
Hi Woo,
I wrote to Idan (#8,9,and 10) I knwo he maybe busy but could you please comment on them please….TIA
he commented a little while ago. =P
ty guys for your responses. keep up the amazing work….best of luck to all of you
Idan, Woo:
Looking into shorting WYNN… thoughts? Thx.
wynn’s been moving sideways since beginning of may. we’re also above the longer term 50ma. divergence is also still a bit positive. i would wait before shorting this.
if you REALLY want to short it, you don’t want to see anything above $89.64. but at the moment, there isn’t anything in the chart that leads me to believe we’re headed south on this. By eyeballing it, it looks like we’re in between the 38-61% retrace areas of the oct 2007 to march 2009 drop. Means we can stay in here longer.
possible breakdown on ICE:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ICE&p=D&yr=1&mn=10&dy=0&id=p00330857149&a=202714993
Not there yet though…
is there anybody who wants to thank me for all my STRONG prediction. I told you about UAUA and F and just look at these. I also told you evreything and evreything is happening exactly as i told you.
SWBB
we appreciate the predictions, but we never see when you buy and when you sell. we just hear a lot of predictions, and then after everything happens, you did the perfect trade and got out of the trades at the perfect time for the predictions you had wrong. i’m sure you’re making a lot of money, but i don’t know if anybody is able to make any profit from any of the strong predictions you give. i also never see any analysis (fundamental or technical) or even an explanation of why you feel the way you do, which makes it hard to trust in your predictions. telling people to stick with the big boys is like me telling people to trust in a fortune telling cat. hope you keep making a ton. good luck =)
LOL woo, SAM brings so much entertainment in this board its hilarious.
hahaha
He’s a good guy.
Day is slow.
TFTC
Wow look at INTC, it filled it’s gap .. it was trading as high as 22.75 Premarkets at 6AM… sheesh.. had I known it was this easy to make $ I would short all the inflated gap ups at 6-8am..
AMD <– I'm starting to load up long.. I feel it could backtest support @ $7.00 but I'm looking at it as a swing trade. and don't mind suffering a drawdown. Note I am selling $8 JULY CALLS for 10 cents to lower my average price.. they expire in 2 and a half trading days anwyays..
after OPEX.. depending on what AMD is trading at, I might sell some $9 calls to lower my avg. pric position too.
AEM.TO/AEM.. I Mentioned we have tested support numerous times and failed to break it.. im long.. with short otm calls to lower my avg. price.
Just left the oil trade [I said USO, but that's cause no on trads canadian but its the sme thing].
SLD 5000 HOD Stock HOD 10.18 TSE(CAD) 11:02:37 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010 new
BOT 4000 HOD Stock HOD 10.11 TSE(CAD) 09:47:02 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010 new
BOT 1000 HOD Stock HOD 10.11 TSE(CAD) 09:47:02 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010
SPX bounced off long term RSI trend line. If I were the market I would back test the 1080 area to keep people guessing a bit longer.
short term getting a bit oversold. 1087-1088 area has some good support with fibs and short term 200ma.
VIX is above the trend line. chart is up at top.
zoomed and linked. you can see the strong move after the trend line break:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01789114842&a=204018771
hey woo should I still hold onto my VXX shares … bot 20K at 24.55
as long as we’re above that trend line on VIX, you can hold it. Why not raise stops to profit. $25.66
there’s 1087. let’s see how it holds.
if it can regain the 1088 200ma after the 1087 fib support, it can rise into close. good area to test SPY calls.
SPY aug 109 calls. @ 3.32
current stop at 3.36
might go get some lunch.
stopped out.
i think i was too impatient with raising my stop haha.
might consider dipping in vix later.
Ok fed finally admits that the economy is very messed up. Geesh took them long enough. Manipulating bastids can’t hide the facts anymore look for a good sell off.
now we are seeing eye to eye my friend…. best regards , should have listened to you yesterday but I’m fine now. GL 2 u
Ford 11.90 has been a good short.
well dont tell samm. his big boys are gonna come after you. lol
as from the amount of orders you see.. i got kinda carried away with AMD guys.. just got a huge bullish gut feeling for this play.. huge value play into OPEX here guys.. my avg price will be $7.27 if AMD does not reach 8 by friday.. ill mention it on friday.. just posting this up incase anyone cares..
the $8 calls are selling for .10-12.. if you have a good broker.. going long the stock [which was 7% higher just yesterday night] might be a high probability play..]
BOT 10 AMD Option AUG10 8 CALL AMD 100821C00008000 0.30 CBOE(USD) 10:42:24 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010 new
SLD 100 AMD Option JUL10 8 CALL AMD 100717C00008000 0.10 CBOE(USD) 11:22:58 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010 new
SLD 80 AMD Option JUL10 8 CALL AMD 100717C00008000 0.10 CBOE(USD) 11:12:23 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010 new
SLD 30 AMD Option JUL10 8 CALL AMD 100717C00008000 0.10 BOX(USD) 10:57:46 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010 new
SLD 40 AMD Option JUL10 8 CALL AMD 100717C00008000 0.10 BOX(USD) 10:52:39 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010 new
SLD 20 AMD Option JUL10 8 CALL AMD 100717C00008000 0.10 BOX(USD) 10:52:39 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010 new
BOT 1000 AMD Stock AMD 7.36 EDGEA(USD) 11:22:36 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010 new
BOT 9000 AMD Stock AMD 7.36 EDGEA(USD) 11:22:18 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010 new
BOT 1000 AMD Stock AMD 7.35 ARCA(USD) 11:12:08 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010 new
BOT 3000 AMD Stock AMD 7.35 ARCA(USD) 11:12:08 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010 new
BOT 1000 AMD Stock AMD 7.35 ARCA(USD) 11:12:08 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010 new
BOT 3000 AMD Stock AMD 7.36 EDGEA(USD) 11:11:43 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010 new
BOT 2000 AMD Stock AMD 7.38 ARCA(USD) 10:53:16 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010 new
BOT 1000 AMD Stock AMD 7.38 ARCA(USD) 10:53:15 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010 new
BOT 3000 AMD Stock AMD 7.42 EDGEA(USD) 10:47:22 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010 new
BOT 2000 AMD Stock AMD 7.52 EDGEA(USD) 10:08:52 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010 new
BOT 1000 AMD Stock AMD 7.51 ARCA(USD) 10:07:09 PDT on Wed, 14 Jul 2010
btw. ideally if one were going long amd, they one would short some other stock just incase the SPY keeps going down.. you dont want to lose everything as no play is 100% guarantee…
AMD is currently below both the 200ma and 50ma, it’s also been forming a descending channel over the last 4 months. hopefully the 6.90s was a double bottom, and even if we are headed lower long term, there’s a good chance we could retest the upper trend line of the channel. good luck! pretty risky position though.
I was expecting the market to respond to the bullish oil inventories report. It seems to have ignored it. Strange
FOMC says it doesn’t know what it’s doing.
everyone is confused, except for all the people here on focalequity. we all know what’s up.
looks like 1087 was the perfect bounce area. sets up the potential for an overall move towards 1035. we’ll see how the market moves into close and into tomorrow for more confirmation of this.
You mean 1135 Woo?
yeah. thanks for catching that.
hey if thats what you are thinking then im out of my VXX
sold 20k VXX at $25.90 bot at $24.55
well it hasn’t been confirmed yet. VIX is holding the line still. But that was a great buy and sell either way. If VIX is holding the line into tomorrow, we could get a really steep rise after the confirmation.
wel maybe i’ll buy them back at the end of the day again but tomorrow is opex what are your expectations for friday?
max pain for spy is at 110. Could be interesting for the market to just sit in this area until friday…
Well the way I am reading this is they are going to put another good spin on the bad news and the market will end green today.
Financials were down all day and then mysteriously they come roaring back in the last part of the day.
That is strange it makes me think that Jamie Diamond has something up his sleeve and JPM’s numbers could be better than the street expects..
Woo, do you forcast this market will move upto 1230 in August or you think it will stop at 1135 adn then drop?
not sure yet. Currently the market is more bullish. 1135 is just a minimum top, depending on if bullish market action continues. Market has to get under some 20 year long term trend lines to switch the bias to bearish long term (1060-1070s). We could move into 1230s or even very low 1300s.
Not sure what they’ll use to keep driving up the market though if that were to happen…new stimulus? housing incentive? or maybe just ignorance.
Hopefully we’ll have a better idea of which direction the market is heading after this week.
Woo, Thanks!
Today market does not drop big when responding to bad ratail sale data! Give me feeling that market is still bullish somehow.
Anyone think JPM’s numbers tomorrow could be better than expected ???? The bigger question will it mover the market higher or cause a sell off ??
I’m actually a believer that most financials will disappoint this quarter on bad hedging but that doesn’t mean they will sell off..
Bingo baby GREEN! So there you go for evidence. Bad news is good and good news is better. Spin it bay-beeeeee the train to paradise is unstopable.
Alot of big names to report between now and Friday including the banks,also Friday is opex so alot of data to digest between now and then.If there is to be a seoll off soon i don’t see it until all the big guns announce and after options expirations i could also see a run up to 1110 on the S+P..JMO
Count on it.
Stock Bears Outnumber Bulls for First Time Since April ’09 – Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-14/stock-bears-outnumber-bulls-for-first-time-since-april-09.html
The level of bullish sentiment about the U.S. stock market fell below the level of bearishness for the first time since April 2009, according to a survey of newsletter writers.
The proportion of bullish publications tracked by Investors Intelligence trailed bearish ones by 2.2 percentage points, declining to 32.6 percent, the lowest level since March 2009. Individuals’ optimism about equities also fell to its lowest level since March 2009, 21 percent, according to a survey last week by the American Association of Individual Investors. The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index has rallied 7 percent from July 2 through yesterday.
Some analysts regard investor sentiment as a contrarian indicator and believe increased pessimism is a sign the market is poised to rebound. Barton Biggs, the hedge-fund manager who was among the first investors to turn bullish at the start of the bull market in 2009, said July 2 that he slashed his equity holdings in half that week. The S&P 500 has rallied every day since then.
“It swings a little too much to one side, and we have a rally,” Peter Boockvar, an equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co.in New York, said in an interview.
The Investor Intelligence survey is typically a lagging indicator, said Michael Burke, co-editor at New Rochelle, NY- based Investors Intelligence.
“Probably next week people will get a little more bullish,” he said in an interview. “We’re in the earnings season now, and that’ll make people a little more optimistic.”
The following are results from Investors Intelligence’s analysis of investment newsletters for July 7 through yesterday.
This Week Last Week Comments
Bullish * 32.6% 37.0% Lowest level since March 2009
Bearish # 34.8% 34.8% Stays at highest in 12 months
Correction & 32.6% 28.2% Biggest jump since January
* The bullish reading fell to 22.2 percent in October 2008,
the lowest since November 1988.
# The bearish reading fell to 15.6 percent in December
2009, the lowest since April 1987. It rose to 54.4 percent in
October 2008, the highest since December 1994.
& The correction reading rose to 39.8 percent in February
2010, the highest since September 1983.
Cool fact, bull markets are rising markets. Bulls attack by tossing up with their horns.
JPMorgan earnings (JPM) tomorow, Citigroup, Bank of America eps on friday $$
I just wanted to post that I’m back. I used to occasionally post on here a few months ago before the registration requirement was enacted. The pc I had was too old to support the software. I attempted to register but never saw any email response. Then I saw this blog required software that was not supported. That’s history now.
In the bigger picture the market rose from 666 to 1220 and had a 38% pullback at 1010. I’m wondering if that was it and we’re in a new bull market or if we drop farther than a 38% pullback. I like to feel confident in the longer term picture but I’m undecided following both bullish and bearish blogs.