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2:04pm
SPY 1 minute breaks out of the formation it had all day. With a break of 107.45 and a retest of that level the SPY can rally more. I’d only begin being bearish on a break of 107.20 today:
12:20pm
GS on the daily is now trading in a descending channel, we are very close to the 137.80-138.10 resistance line, but if we break out, there could be a reversal of patterns on GS. Here’s it is:
11:12am
SPY now testing the 107.20 as support, a great potential buying opportunity with literally a 20 cent stop… if we break 107 down, we start selling off harder.
11:09am
PWRD 60 min chart is providing two entry points for those who want to get long. With this stock being hammered over the last half year, it looks like it tested (and faked out) above the 24.50 descending blue line. I think if we break it again, it’ll be a great long opportunity. For those who are more conservative, horizontal resistance is also at 25.20, a break of that could shove it up into the 27. Currently we’re below both breaking out points.
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10:44am
BA opened up right at 65.20. If we can break 65-65.20 to the upside, we will see strong rallies to follow in BA (as mentioned in my video last night). If we break the 200 SMA daily downward, BA will lose it’s bullishness.
10:29am
UUP (dollar ETF) has been falling for about 2-3 weeks. 2 days ago it hit it’s 38.2% retracement. Since it has only lingered there, it could be forming a low base. Unless it gets a bounce monday, the dollar could break through the the fib retrace and can fall all the way to 24.10. The 38.2% retracement at 24.38 is also a buying opportunity but currently it doesn’t look strong, i would have expected it to bounce off the 38.2% vigurously.
10:18am
A great entry point for XOM would be a break of $59.20 on the 60 min chart. You can see how former support forms resistance very clearly, if we reach that level we will probably find resistance again (you can try a short there too) but if we break above it, we will get massive rally in this stock (due to oversold conditions). Here’s the chart:
10:12am
Stop at 51.22 on the RIMM short, guaranteeing at least a slight profit. Stopped out with +$204
10:08am
Just went short 2,000 shares of RIMM at 51.33 at my blue line. , with a stop at 51.55. I will trail the stop as soon as we break down 51.15.
9:57am
RIMM broke out today after it managed to break out of the 49.20 level yesterday in the last hour of trading. That said, there is a very strong descending resistance up ahead (my blue line) right now at 51.40 but is slowly moving down. I think it’s a great shorting opportunity, take a look at the 60 min:
9:45am
The majority of the market seems to be up or at least not down much except for AMZN here… after hitting up against 106+ it fell back down below 106.20 and started extending it’s losses. It’ll need to break it’s 200 SMA 10 minute (115.16) before i consider a short though.
9:40am
Google’s license in China gets renewed (compromise between the two entities) and GOOG is up more than 3% on that news. Currently it’s right at the gap fill at 470.50 ish
9:28am
I have a feeling that whatever happens today, the bears will push us far away from the highs by the end of the day. The reason is, this week we’ve basically had only rallies and therefore as of right now the weekly candle is at the high. To make things less bullish the bears will try and push us down, either here, or after a rally.
12:45am
FCX 120 minute closed above 63 yesterday. With that close above, unless we get a push lower below $63 early tomorrow we can rally up to $65 (the blue descending resistance). I would be a buyer of 63, unless the SPY tests 106.05 again, with a stop right below. And short at the blue line:
11:50pm (yesterday)
Video Update:
Today we looked at the SPY, AMZN and BA. The most important thing was to detect today’s bullish sentiment because 106.05 gapfill was not broken and the bulls managed to hold those levels.
It is also important to notice that we have some very strong resistance up ahead and that even though the bulls in the short term have the end, 108.50 and 109.15 are levels that will get shorting pressure.
We also talk about the elliott wave patterns that we see and the implications of the rally.
I’m going all in to short at the 1085-1093 level early next week. There should be heavy resistance in this area. If earnings outlooks and June sales next week are okay, I will dump my short positions and look to go bullish with a break above 1100. Have to play the market and remove emotions.
Eventually, this whole thing has to unravel. We can’t pay off all this debt. Who knows when the day of reckoning will be here, but I hope to be on the right side of that trade. That will be the mother of all trades. Good luck!
So far, you might be right… i think that’s my approach right here.
Only Data Coming out tomorrow:
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM EST
I’ve been adding to my short positions the past 2 days, and feel very very strongly that we’ll end in the red today, most likely at least 1% down. Thereafter we’ll resume the downtrend. If I’m wrong I may take some losses and go mostly to cash by day’s end, and if so I’ll post that info here before the closing bell. I highly doubt it however, and will be extremely surprised if we close in the green today!
I dunno guys i really do not see a bifg sell off until earnings next week.This could be your classic run up to earnings then sell the news..JMO
Totally agree Dave the bulls are going to run this up another 100pts before they are done.
Even if the sell off doesn’t begin today… we need to sell off from the highs today to make the weekly candle look less bullish.
ex. We can rally to 108, and then sell off to 107.12… but the key is to be somewhat far away from the highs.
Gonna be a BIG up day today, imo
Long a small position in FAS, about 15% of portfolio, ~ 85% cash in my trading account. GLTA.
Yea I picked it up @ 17.40 last week and glad I did. Bulls are running the show at the moment and it seems they are loving it be long be strong the train to paradise just keeps a chuggin!
Idan,
What do u think bat BIDU?
Thanks
In my opion, a break of 67.40 to the downside is a great entry for a potential break of a more important support at 65.90.
A break of $65.90 could be the end of the rallying for BIDU and a start of a bear market (strong selling pressure should come then. Whether or not we reach that level is still yet to be seen. For now, it’s not a short. I want to see 67.40 tested first, but with GOOG back in the market that might happen sooner rather than later.
Bloomberg Radio a few seconds ago: S&P heading for the largest one week gain of the year. Average investors will forget the doom / gloom and want to be all in (IMO).
107.80 is also the 20 SMA daily.. that might be a great shorting opportunity for the 1-2 day trade. I’m not sure how high we go (108.5-109.20) but 107.80 could be a pausing point. Hopefully we hit it today and get a reversal candle.
AA just hit it’s 20 SMA daily, anybody thinking about shorting this stock anytime soon? It’s also got only 1% left for it’s complete gap fill.
AA release earning after 12 July close. Maybe it is not time to short now
AXP has handeled the sell off very well, and looks relatively stronger than the market and other financials in it’s sector. With that, i think a break of $43 (when we get there) to the upside, will be an amazing long opportunity. People can also take a short at 42.90, with a stop above $43.20 but be careful.
SHORT 1,000 UNG @ 7.49 –> BUY TO COVER @ 7.39
GOOD LUCK!
Ok guys i am going to stick my neck out and say we have a good shot to hit 1100 on the S+P.Alot of traders are setting up to go short around the 108.50 and the 109.15 which are 2 key levels pointed out by Idan in that awsome video (thanks Idan)..I watch the bond yields for guidence and they have been going up which tells me a little more risk is starting to creep back in.I went short the TLT yesterday and plan on riding that until $96.50 with a stop @ $101.80…GLTA
1 min SPY H&S formation on at 107.35 (right shoulder now forming) – not that it does much damage if it breaks down
Who thinks of taking a nice pair trade. GOOG long Vs BIDU short into the weekend after the news that GOOG gets a License in China?
i like it..
thinking to short BIDU with stop at 72.
AEM / AEM .TO
What’s the play? Looks like we are trading at support from an ascending channel.
Long AEM/AEM.TO, Short ITM AUGUST CALLS.
Potential reward $2.50 on $60 if AEM stays flat, trades higher, or trades 10% lower.
Potential risk, you are long AEM $2.50 lower than the purchase price, so risk is $55 – 58 depending on whether you are playing on the NYSE/TSX.
Still feel confused here, up or down. I’m up a little in my FAS buy of this AM (1.25%) and I have a stop a touch below my purchase price. I will not hold this overnight, but I’d be very interested to see if the algo’s will move this up or down @ 3 and 3:30.
Idan, I like the theory of Goog / BIDU but I am “afraid to trade”.
Moved up stock to lock in (small) profit. Enough for a couple of cans of coke. Probably safer as I unltimately want to sell this today anyway.
stock = stop
20 year zoomed:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p57124784197&a=184607634
Body of the candle not above the trend line. some bullish divergence.
Idan your thoughts on TBT with yields just went over 3%…
Long GS @ 137.55
Stops set now @ 137.90
anyone shorting crude oil yet?
As long as crude oil sustains above 75.34 i think it’s a buy. If it closes below that level though, i’d consider shorting it at the close with a stop at 75.70 or so
wow jaso is keep riding up…..
RIMM shooting star *
http://www.financialpost.com/m/story.html?id=3256919&s=Home
i’m just putting reason why RIMM is strong going up w/ big vol. – not literally star
above both trend lines…
Here come the black box trades 3:00pm right on time !!!1
the ideal close is in between the two trend lines though.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p15669063543&a=181956106
Happy I was just stopped out of fas a few minutes ago for quick 3% gain. I am not comfortable holding anything in trading account over the weekend. GLTA.
Every thing is going according to plan and I would not be surprise if we close today around 10200-10225 which is around resistance level and perfect setting for earnings…As I wrote yesterday this market has two head and shoulder formations each opposite. Short term there is an inverse Head & Shoulder with the base between 10250 and 10350 and head at 9600s which if it plays out should take us up to 11000s… There is a monster long term head and shoulder with the base at 9900 and head at 11200…If this one plays out we will fall hard to the low 8000s…Now everybody is talking about the second head and shoulder…There is bearish news…etc, etc…So my guess is that it won’t happen and the short term inverse will take over… My guess is that this market will go up…..The key level to watch is 10115 if this holds we are all clear for upside…..10115 falls say bye bye to 10000s and perhaps 9000. Now next week will be tricky since we might fall to fool some people (bears and bulls) again watch 10115…I am of the opinion that we will consolidate between 10115 and 10350 at least for next week. So Neutral is a good option here for the time being…I am 100% cash at the moment waiting like a Croc in the nile for my prey….
Like I said earlier watch them run it up to around +100pts.
One more consideration is that I expect Alcoa to Beat expectations…If you have followed the news GM and Ford posted sale increases during June…This should reflect in AA earnings 2010 Vs 2009 comparison…
Decided to hold all short positions into the weekend. Really shocked about today ending green, but happy it didn’t go through anymore significant resistance levels whatsoever. Looking for a resumption of the downtrend we’re still in, to continue next week,
Good luck to everybody and have a great weekend!
the fact that it rallied all the way until the end makes me believe that we have more rallying at least early monday morning.. pfft.
Idan,
You might be right, but it seems like the rally has run out of steam and I doubt we’ll close above 1080 on the S&P. I’m thinking the market as it likes to fool most people, will provide a black Monday when folks are least expecting it. So perhaps rally in the morning, but definitely crash in the afternoon is what I’m thinking.
Have a great weekend, and thanks for all the great insight and T.A you provide on this great site!
Resumption of downward trend? Wake up it has been going up the last three days or did I miss something?
Stocks pushed higher for a fourth-straight day and enjoyed their best week in nearly a year, thanks to gains in metals and financial stocks and hopes for a strong second-quarter earnings season.
Idan,
you never liked Amzn over $116
do I sell my Aug 125 and Aug 110 puts for a 50% loss or do I wait?
thanks in advance
It’s true i never liked it up here.. but at this point your upside is much higher than your losses.
I rather put a stop at 120, if you get stopped out, you get back 25-30% of your initial trade.
Let it play, we know the SPY is hitting some really strong resistance 0.5-1% up from here.. that should coincide with 20 SMA daily on the AMZN at 118.53.
That’s the last resistance i’m willing to play for AMZN to the short side.
Idan I respect your views and I appreciate your input
at this point I will continue to hold
in your experience do gaps sometimes NOT ever get filled like the one Amzn has?
Gaps are sort of like magnets. If the stock has a gap, and it’s next to a gap it will most likely fill it. But that doesn’t necessarily happen all the time.
In Amazon’s case, the gap was so huge that support around the break of the gap will be huge too. That said, if we test it again, my guess is we fill that gap and fast.