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4:22pm
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2:46pm
SPY 1 minute chart now at some resistance at 106.35. It use to be a small inverse H&S 1 minute neckline earlier today, then it was a small support now back to resistance. Any break of this, and we shoot up to 106.60 and 106.70.
2:28pm
Stopped out AMZN and AAPL short with 0.2% for both respectively. Just a little over $400 profit. SPY retesting 106.09, shorting still seems favorable today unless SPY gets above 106.20.
2:21pm
SPY breaking 106.09 which will allow for a lot more selling to come in later today. With no real support below until 105.21, the downside seems to be the path of least resistance for the moment. I’m going to go ahead and lower my stops of AMZN to 114.75 and AAPL to 255.9.
2:11pm
Stops on both AMZN and AAPL now moved to profitable positions at 115.05 and 256.35. Just wanted to lock in that profit at least.
1:55pm
Entry short position in AMZN and AAPL at 115.10 and 256.49 respectively. Stops are at 115.55 and 257.10.
1:33pm Where does the SPY end the day? Total Voters: 37
What trade is everyone making, are people betting up or down?
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1:14pm
Failure to break 106.09 has prompted a rally in the SPY. On the 1 minute an inverse H&S formation has formed which can shove the market higher to at least 106.60 or to 106.80. As long as it stays above 106.45. Here’s a picture of the 1 min charts:
12:58pm
AMZN potentially going in for the breakdown now of H&S testing the 115 level 
12:47pm
AAPL head and shoulders on the 4 hour charts are still in play. The neckline on that one is 243.2. To anticipate it, a break of 106 or 105 (depending how much risk you want to take) could generate the downside needed to reach the neckline and potentially break it. 249 is also strong support. So far, only bearish action from this stock today.
12:14pm
Amzn 1 minute showing a head and shoulders formation on the 1 min, which can confirm the topping of the retest of the massive H&S on the daily and the start of a new wave lower. The neckline at 114.90.
11:33am
GS hourly potentialy breaking down a very important level on the hourly charts here. You can see the ascendign support and resistance for the past two weeks and we broke out of it yesterday. Well todaywe are breaking it back down at 134.20. I am short GS here. Stop at 134.65.
10:46am
SPY testing 106.55 for the second time today, a nice little break of that could spur a sell off to 106.20. And it looks like we’re going to get it. So far.. a bounce off of the 106.55 level.
10:38am
RIMM 10 minutes broke out of it’s bottoming resistance at the open, and fall back to retest it at 49.20 as support. Although we haven’t really gotten a bounce off the retest yet, this is technically the best LONG entry for Rimm we’ve had in a while. With a stop right underneath limits your risk:
10:28am
GOOG 10 minute will see major sell of when it hits my ascending red resistnace. Right now that resistance is at 458.. but it is slowly moving upwards, so if it hits in an hour it can be at 459 ish. I will be short selling this hit:
10:18am
After a break of Visa’s head and shoulders to the downside it looks like Visa went back and retested the neckline at aaround 75.50. With that it found resistance, this could be a very nice shorting opportunity. Make sure there’s a stop though. here’s the 60 min:
10:07am
GS seems to be taking a freefall right now… back -0.7% on the day. If it breaks 133.90 to the south i will be a bear on this name.
9:42am
USO back above 34 at the open, with that i want to think more bullish about the USO stock, i will be a buyer on a retest of 34, rather than a seller.
9:36am
AAPL’s head and shoulders is still there on the 60 minute. In fact, we are still in the process of building the right shoulder. While i thought the right shoulder might be shorter, at this point it looks like it will be a symmetrical shoulder (assuming the H&S forms). Look for resistance right at 265, even if the H&S doesn’t form, i expect a pull back around that level, so it’s a good entry:
9:32am
Futures getting another bounce towards the 1070 levels on the jobs report. AMZN now hitting 116 on a retest of the head and shoulders, might be worth a very nice short position. Here’s the daily:
As mentioned in my video, i am neutral NOT bearish right now. But i just want to present the bearish side, the bullish side is obvious, but the bearish side is still here:
12:01am
Check out Daneric’s elliot wave analysis. This is basically what the bears are thinking with a target around 1062 to as high as 1085 for a potential bounce. In my opinion we need to see at least a pull back or a B wave before we continue up to the 1070-1085 level. But it just shows you that by elliott wave things are still “ok” for the bearish side. That said, i rather short on a topping pattern than just at a random retracement now that 1038-1045 broke:
Idan’s conflict with 1010 being the bottom:
Based on elliott wave, we have not gotten an A/B/C downward correction from the highs of 1220 yet… the C wave tends to be either equal to or most likely 1.618 times the length of A.. that gives us a 940-960 target at least… In order to satisfy a 1010 bottom, we would have to reorder wave A, B, C to a more “unusual location”. While still possibile, it is not as likely.
Tons of news tomorrow:
Chain Store Sales
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Announcement
9:00 AM ET
10-Yr Note Announcement
9:00 AM ET
30-Yr Bond Announcement
9:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
If this is Primary 3 there shouldn’t be any ABC downward corrections.
12345 waves follow the primary trend which in this chart is down.
ABC waves are corrective waves which in this chart is up.
Blue 1 down is 5 waves
Blue 2 up is a corrective ABC
We should be in Blue 3 down now with 5 waves unfolding.
Here’s my S&P Bearish Chart
http://www.screencast.com/users/davlee1972/folders/SP500/media/fe39bcb6-d796-44bd-8647-85538ffe83bd
This (c) wave is looking ripe enough to turn back down at these levels, but it doesn’t have to.
What i was saying was the following:
If it is NOT primary wave 3, and this is only an A/B/C correction, then we need to see at least 960 first or lower. That’s why i think it IS primary wave 3, and we’re following the chart Daneric has.
The market is going spin the job loss coming in less than expected and will roar it up trust me. That’s how it is always done. Even if it was one job less they will spin it up. Declines here reflect a mix of new hiring but ALSO the expiration of benefits as the unemployed move out of the insured pool. They don’t count the people moved off the list even though they are still unemployed. The SPX will go through 1070 quite easily. Yesterday was a no news day and the market went up +275 pts don’t be surprised to see it continue to roar up even more with all this “great” news. JMHO
Note TZA has split by 5. Instead of 8.00 now is 40.00.
Idan,
What would your stop be on AMZN?
I went short at 116.30, and my stop was at 117… i now moved my stop back below 116.20. But your stop should be just slightly higher than 116.10.
Moving stop down to 115.8
blah stopped out. +0.3%
Bunch of fibs in the 1070….easy area to short for a gap fade at a minimum….we have filled that old gap…
yup, perfectly too.. i actually think we can go higher than 107, though it is a great stopping point.
I mainly trade the futures, so the is often faster than in the cash market….it looks like we could start to break down today…there is very little follow through on that upward momo seen yesterday
Do you guys feel like we could back test the neckline on the H+S pattern around the 1050 level then continue up and do you have any targets?..I feel a 50% fib would be the 1071 and 61.8% 1085 on the S&P however the market is never that nice and neat we either over or under shhot on technicals..
1045-1050 might be backtested… i’m not really sure though. I know some bears have 1085-1090 as the top (slightly over 61.8% retrace). Before a massive dump.
I think both the bulls and bears want to see 1045-1050 once before we shoot up to 1085-1090.
Thanks Idan
long some GOOG at 452
Nice, goog got that 50% Fib retracement bounce afterall… got some strong resistance at 460-461, but so far so good.
Idan thanks on the FCX call. Went short at $64 and covered at $62.94. Thank you
perfecto.
Hit my level of 1071 like a brick wall. Playing the death cross now, don’t expect 1071 to be breached. Have my stops just above that.
Jobless claims dropped!!! Wow!!! What a ridiculous representation of what is really happening.
Next week, this number will quietly be revised up.
Is this really a reason to continue the uptrend?
long 100 CLR at 44, good wildcat oil stock down 1%, OK NP
man NatGas is getting destroyed
idan,
good morning..
thoughts on JPM…back tested the head and shoulders and filled the gap…earnings today?? whatcha think
oppps…earnings the 15th..
Hey, well JPM started off relatively bearish, like most of the financials selling off their gaps + some more. But that said, i need to see 37.50 sell off to be bearish, right now according to teh charts 37.50 is a great buying point.
I know 37.50 is slightly further away but you can’t really play it anywhere else.
so..you think a buy at 37.50 for a bit and a run up to earnings then the sell off?? that said, it broke the neckline upwards pretty easy on the rally…do you think now the neckline will be support and keep it in the formation for awhile or a massive drop right through the neckline…
man..this is a toughy
My intuition right now is that we do fall much much lower in the next 2-3 weeks.. but 37.50 will most likely hold for the first hit… you can then go short it if it breaks it south.
well their is the first red flag GS and JPM just went red !!!
For the second time
UNG is tanking !!!! $7.40 down 5%…What’s up with that ???/
Supply issue Dave. Remember economics? High supply low demand=lower price. Low supply high demand=higher price.
good point !!! If a possible tropical storm in the gulf may impact the price
Looks like as bear flag on the 3min SPY setting up !!!!
there’s the bounce on POT.TO i’ve been waiting for.
timed it well, bought another 100 shares at the open yesterday at 88.85.
i’m holding these for a while, think we have seen the lows.
TSLA – is anybody playing the bounce this stock was $30.00 3 days ago ???
Dollar up + Euro up…strange correlation and the 10 year yield above 3%
what chart are you looking at….Euro is falling and the dollar is rising and Oil is falling
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DXY
Euro HOD = 1.2703, Current Print = 1.266
DX LOD = 83.92, Current Print = 84.165
charts not lying here
Bought CM.TO Aug puts.
TSLA – is anybody playing the bounce this stock was $30.00 3 days ago ???
I really can’t play TSLA… even though my guess is to go short rather than long, just not enough data…
yes – unpredictable at this moment…i would stay away from that stock.
Meredith Whitney reduces numbers on Goldman Sachs [GS 134.38 -1.45 (-1.07%) ] to $1.70 for the quarter (from $4.75 previous)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38148845
Hi, Idan
Is RIMM still a good long entry? It now below 49.20. Thanks
I’d wait for a breakout of 49.20 first… if it doesn’t break out again it might just dump…
HILARIOUS Reuters headline !!!
Tired Gay succumbs to Dix in 200 meters
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6622I420100703
lol, i can’t believe they let that through.
lol. that’s hilarious haha.
my god thats funny
Shorting $AAPL at the failure to breach the 200movingaverage on the 5min chart has been easy money since 6/21
Yeah entry point below 256.50 and i’ll be short too.. i think a break of 256.50 will cause a break of 256, and a retest of 255
Added more $VVUS short 11.37
GE was a nice short :$)
Sure was, it is coming in to some support 14.60.. so watch out. But if it holds 14.60 for 10 more minutes it could break south and then more shorting to come!
We need to look very close at these two levels:
10115 and 10350.
The first hurdle for the long story is to brake above the 60min 200 moving average. Right now it sits at 10115. I think we will break it because the market looks strong. Next important level is 10350. This is a pivot point and this is what will happen:
1) If we trade north of 10115 next stop is 10350
2) Failure to break 10115 will bring us down and confirms an ascending triangle (Bearish) between 9600’s and 10115
Therefore the key is 10115 and the ascending support line…I think the market has momentum and we will break 10115 therefore erasing the ascending triangle scenario…Which is Bullish very short term!!
So, the real test is 10350 (this is the level I want to watch for shorting or longing with confidence). At this level we will be forming a Head and Shoulder formation long term mixed with an inverse Head and Shoulders….Everybody is taking about the first one so my guess is the second one is the one that will play out. So the scenario is this:
1) Failure to break 10350 will bring the market crashing down to the low 9000’s (9450 is my guess for now)
2) Break of 10350 and we are all clear for 11000s (as a result of the inverse head and shoulder)
How do I know when 1) happens?… If we Break 10115 (or 60 min 200 single moving average) with two 60 min candle
How do I know when 2) happens?…If we trade above 10350 for two consecutive hours….
The market is undecided right now but I am leaning towards the bullish story and I will wait 10350 to see what happens…
This is actually pretty disgusting movement. I don’t know if I feel comfortable holding anything overnight.
by disgusting you mean downwards right? I think people who want to be long, can be long as long as we hold 106.20.
if we hold the 1060 area, i won’t be holding any positions overnight. in my opinion it’s a short term bullish stance.
TNA is still under the longer term trend line though, and may close underneath it, which is a good sign for shorts.
Don’t worry they will run this up over 100 pts EOD. Spy EOD 107.
closing at 1060 or above is probably the best for the market overall. I don’t think we break into closing.
should dip into close, if we’re following the pattern.
I’m really feeling a sell off coming in the final hour, and all indices closing in red. Hoping for that too of course
Any thoughts on UNG? @ 7.44 now
Idan mentioned earlier that until it breaks $7.80 there is no trade !!!!
I think we woill tread water until next week when earningswill be announced. Merideth Whitney slashed the numbers for GS so we could see the market move big time next week..
sold my SPY puts at limit at 1060 just now.
not sure if it was the best idea, but i put a limit around there an hour ago and forgot about it. just heard it ring and sell a minutes ago.
if the formation plays out, we could head lower into closing, but if i were the market, i would keep things above 1060 to keep people guessing and at least prop the market against those wanting to hold puts/shorts overnight.
thank God for limits and stops. looks like I got out at a perfect price and don’t have to worry about watching the market action into close. sold at 2.14 and the price is currently 2.01! saved 13 cents worth of profit.
TNA is now above the trend line. Overall market is below the 1071 major resistance, and above the 1060s support.
well played MM….well played =)
Question for the pros or anybody that has an answer ??
Would this be considered a failed Head + Shoulders pattern because we failed to continue to break down and if it isn’t a failed patter why not…Thankls in advance
hasn’t failed yet. hasn’t broken north of 1071. I think it can actually go above 1071 and still not be considered as having failed. Until we get above what was previously considered a neckline/shoulderline, it can technically still stay in tact.
Thanks Woo
Idan ,
would you go short amzn right here before the close?
TIA
i am REALLY liking the potential for FSLR:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FSLR&p=D&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p83190725990&a=195865936
If we can get above those trend lines, then it will be a GREAT bullish opportunity.
oops. sorry, meant to post a new post. dunno how this got here.
I might as well talk on AMZN. I think this area is a wait position. although the bias is bearish, the gap area here is dangerous. you pretty much have a road map of A to B from 8-9 months back but don’t know what happened in between. we’re also in between fibs as opposed to crossing, or bouncing right next to fibs, and i don’t see a major trend line to help with the decision.
Idan?
actually i partially take that back. If you want to play the magenta channel, I guess you can, with stops above the upper magenta line. However, it’s an ascending channel so you have to be a little careful and adjust stops everyday and risk the stops allowing for more loss everyday.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=D&yr=3&mn=5&dy=0&id=p26025705517&a=181646175
I still have a slight bearish bias on AMZN, but would not let it get any higher than today’s high. I think that AMZN will be one of the most bearish stocks once the SPY consolidates back down.
But with the SPY being very bullish today, you might want to wait to see what happens with that first.
IF AMZN forms a H&S formation in one of the 10 minute charts, wait for a break and then go short (115 is an important level, i expect something like that to form on that level)
Idan,
Didnt you say you wouldn’t be holding AMZN over $116…did anything change?
I am still holding my Aug 125 and Aug 110 puts…I am down approx 30% and I went pretty heavy
Am I crazy to still hold? I still see $100 price for some reason…what would you do?
You are not crazy to still hold… There is “ascending” resistance which everyday shoves a little higher.. but also horizontal 106.20.
someone said before that the mkt will be up about 100 pts. great call
Thanks
OoOoooO. a 1071ish close would be REALLY mean haha. so juicy. it would be even better than a close above 1060 and below 1071.
The plunge protection team to the rescue again..Elections must be getting close !!!!
I have been saying for a few days 1070 and no I am not going to be like
Sam I am and say I TOLD YOU SO but the train to paradise is a back to chuggin. Don’t even think about shorting this market cuz they will rip your guts out stay on the train to paradise!
Very strange the market is up over 100 points but GS + AAPL are red..!!!!
aapl is still above the 50ma and 200ma though and just slightly below a long term 18 month trend line. If we can get to about $263, we could see a stronger rise. I won’t grab calls on it until that happens.
Not really they used two different bear traps and did a great job. They hit the bears harder and faster yesterday and coaxed the rest out real nice and easy today and then………BANG!! MM’s again are laughing all the ay to the bank.
They used GS as the bait lololol. See how these crooks operate? They love stealing your money.
i agree, i’m on.
1070 holding strong as resistance. Just added some TWM to my list of shorts. Market to resume downtrend tomorrow, count on it!
Keep dreaming the only resuming will be higher.
You keep dreaming, and please hold all your long positions!
That is exactly what I am doing. Setting new bear traps so watch your step hehe………..BANG! Dang caught another bear and not even done setting the traps lolol.
Know what, I don’t chat with folks that try to antagonize each other by saying lolol or lmao and stuff like that, its absurd and inane. See ya!
Have a nice day now.
here is the zoomed 20 year:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p73290559416&a=184607634
Wow, looks like the computers got hold of AGU today.
well that was an interesting day. my SPY 2.14 puts would have lost 30 cents by EOD, which is nearly 15%. Tomorrow is a new day. The potential for a rise above 1071 still exists. holding no options or etfs into tomorrow, except a little TNA.
Except a little TNA … lol
Idan , woo or anyone
thoughts on good entery targets — to short Fcx and BA ..
Thank you
I really appeciate You all
I will try and get a FCX and BA charts overnight.
Tommorrow we should see another run up and then i am going SHORT heavily. The question is now how much we will go up tomorrow. I prefer to see 1080 to go short VEY HEAVILY, but remebr that market is very overbough and big boys may just go short at 1072~1075 .Lets see what big boys do, we will follow them
SWBB
I agree with you on this. I would not be short so heavily but will be adding to my short as we get more confirmation
I also see a retracement of 5-15 points max, but I wouldn’t risk a lot of capital playing it and I would make sure I am overweight longs in-case we keep on going higher/have stops at 1081. Like at 1020 on the S&P, my portfolio was 125% long, -25% cash.. at 1060 I unloaded heavily my financials because the price action was way too weird.. turned out to be a good play.. for now.. and now I’m 20% long, 70% cash, 10% spec. plays.. my portfolio went up almost 10% in 3 days.. im not trying to brag, but what I’m saying is that sometimes you gotta wait for things to come to you.. nothing goes up/down forever.. choose a timeframe you want to play and play it.. my timeframe is swing trading..
Check my AMD chart: http://img693.imageshack.us/i/amd1.png/ I think it goes higher,.
Good luck everyone, and have an open mind. Going long at the 9/11 bottom was a guarantee.. SPX clossed at .. no coincidence.. 1011.91 = 911 2001
Lastly, I think we slowly grind ourselves to 1150 by EOY.. They’ll be many 3% moves in both direction along the way so I highly recommend shorting FAZ/FAS to be part of your portfolio. This strategy returned 10% the past 3 months.. that’s 40% annualized.. try it out.. if you believe volatlity to remain for the next 3-5months..
I actually think the down trend started today even though we closed green….
As I TOLD YOU yesterday market will go to 1075. Well EXACTLY as I said happned. I went short and made a little money as morket still is bullish I closed my short with small profit. Big boys do a lot of tricky strategy into option expiry week, so we need to be careful. I don’t think it is wisly to hold any position on weekend uless you are heddged. I would love to see market hold up and then next week we will continue going up toward 1090~1100. That is a sweet place for us to go short. Lets see if big boys manage to do that. Sometimes we just need to wait and big boys will do the best to make opportunity for us. So thanks to big boys
As I TOLD YOU a few days ago, there is a possibility that market will go to 1200. I am working on this analyse and will let you know my result soon.
Have a good weekend and always SWBB