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3:45pm
SPY 60 minute breaks 104.70, 140.80, 105.21 (every level of resistance). It is actually now above a 38.2% retracement from 113.2 highs to the 101.13 lows. I expect some type of pull back early tomorrow or overnight, but this action leads me to believe that 107.12 could be in reach for a target at 50% retrace. People who want to unload puts should do it on the pull back tomorrow if it happens, don’t let those puts rally too much above 106.20 (gap fill).
3:20pm
SPX hits the 61.8% retrace of the whole market sell off from monday of last week right at 1053.8 ish… I’m adding my puts hoping for a pull back here at least to 1046. Today, however was overly bullish and if tomorrow the bears don’t drop it below 1046, i will be changing my stance to neutral from bearish.
12:31pm
I got stopped out on my puts again with 3.2% profit but will look to reneter either on a break of 104.15 or at 104.70-105.10 again.
11:54am
Adding trailing stops to my SPY puts right now, basically guaranteeing a nice 2-3% gain at least, and we’ll see if we fall from here, i’ll widen the stop. Double top at 104.70 about to be confirmed on the 1 minute SPY. Spy double top never got confirmed by 2-bar break.
11:45am
GS 1 minute already showing a H&S formation. Though it’s not big, it is the first sign of weakness we got all day. The XLF also retraced back fully to 13.95-14.00 today just like the SPY. Here’s the 1 min GS:
11:39am
Re-entry at double top with 20% SPY puts aug 104s, will look to add if we go anywhere closer to 105.10. And will trail stop if we break 104.20.
11:36am
Got stopped out on puts, will reenter at a double top and add as we go to 105.11.
11:23am
I already have stops on my puts that provide me with 2-3% profit on my trade.. so even if we go back to 104.55 and i get stopped out, the trade is profitable on all my puts.
10:55am
SPY 10 minutes hits the 104.65-104.70 range right here… hoping to see some reversal occur at this level. I am in 30% PUTS on the SPY aug 104s:
10:51am
Here’s we go, the SPY will hit 104.70 very very soon, this will be where i will pile in a lot of puts right at 104.70, with a trailing stop, hoping for at least a pull back at that level so that i can make money. Even if we eventually break 104.70 i will make money with that trailing stop as long as we pull back a bit from that level first.
10:23am
A lot of people have been talking about the death cross. Here’s a video about it:
“The “death cross”: What it is and how to trade it”
10:14am
GS 10 minute is busting through some resistance here on the 10 minute at 134.00, it should be considered a buying opportunity above 134.00 despite the over market conditions with a trailing stop:
10:03am
SPY is going to be hitting the 103.88 resistance now again, but it’s got the bullish momentum on its side, showing that 104.70 is a likely target here. Bears need to see a break below 103.20 today before they can get momentum.
9:35am
SPY 10 minutes in my opinion does not become bearish until 102.88 breaks to the downside, and becomes intraday bullish on a break of 103.40 (canceling the H&S formation):
9:26am
Market has moved a little higher, nothing too substantial, but we are now above the 102.88 level. There is going to be pretty strong resistance at 103.40. Also the 50 SMA 10 minute is at 103.05 if we open below it be careful for some resistnace.
12:08am
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12:02am
It won’t take much more to break AMZN’s support levels on the 60 minute. You can see that the 60 minute was forming a pennant formation. Only I believe that the next time we hit that blue ascending support, we will crash down below and start filling that massive gap. As long as AMZN sustains below the blue triangle resistance of 112.25-112.50 I’m going to assume we move lower and an AMZN put position makes sense. Here’s the triangle formation:
Tomorrows Data is very light and includes:
7:45am Goldman Store Sales
8:55am Redbook
11:30am 4 week bill auction
3:30pm Narayan Kocherlakota Speaks
Thanks Idan For all you do
Goodmorning ,
Where is everyone
It looks like the market will grinder a little higher today …
I would like to see it make it all the way to the 1070 level and put in a lower high then come crashing down.
I think 1070 might be a little too ambitious.. i can see us trading up to 1040-1050 for a few days, OR crash down now just to confirm the breakdown and then rally back up to 1028.
Idan do you think a sideways to slightly up on low volume until the next big catalyst which i would think would be earnings starting next week i think with JPM on Wednesday !!
We could very well do that.. today is definitely bullish but i’m not sure how easy it will be to break 104.70.. we could trade in a range for 1-2 days but i think either thursday or friday should be significant.
Sold some BEXP for a little 3% gain… Thanks to some random B/D upgrading it this morning
Always is good
Looking at TCK.B.TO, it has a nice positive divergence on the daily and it was up yesterday on very good volume. I have August calls and I`ll be buying more on weakness.
Does anybody think UNG might be a play with the heat wave here in the east and potential tropical storms in the gulf ??
UNG down .07 @ $7.80 Thoughts ???
Well not me.. i don’t want to risk it.. it’s below my level of long term support.
Any big trades people have on currently? Or are people trying to stay out of this market for the time being?
I still have amazon put.. Idan, what do u think about bank’s earning next week?
IMHO, they will beat the expectation but cautious with the outlook..
I think most banks will probably miss expectations actually, outlook will be flat to negative. This quarter was not that great for banks.
I bought a fair amount of Suncor Energy when the market was going down with an average price of about $30. I am bullish on oil. We have lost about 500K barrels of production a day due to Gulf spill. Asian demand continues to be strong. My plan is to sell covered calls (Aug 20th with strike price @ $30) against all my holdings this week.
Oil report due tomorrow 10.30am if I’m not mistaken..
it’s usually wednesday, but because of monday, it’ll be tomorrow at 11am.
it is out tomorrow with an expectation of 2mil barrel drawdown
Idan.
What’s your thought on BP? I’m thinking about buying some today.
Thanks.
33.70 is the last low.. i think that will be very strong resistance.. i’m not sure how well it’s going to work, i need a pull back for better entry so that my stop is much much tighter. Where would your stop be if you bought it now?
I usually do 5% from entry point for all my trades. Some of the more volatile stocks I go as high as 10%.
Sold covered calls on 25% of my SU holdings @ $2 (Aug 20th with strike price @ $30)
Looking for a good entry point on FAZ! XLF not too far away from the $14 resistance level from last week.
been trying to short some TSLA, but no shares available @ etrade
What’s the deal with this company?
they sell wayyyy overpriced electric cars
Is it a short? It’s already down 50% in 5 days.
i think it sees single digits
idan, what’s your target for SPY intraday pullback?
right now, i’m not really sure. If 104.70 truly holds, we should hit 103.40 but i have stops in place just in case.
If the SPY closes the 11:30 AM. 60 minute bar over 104:45$ it will have two higher highs and two higher lows and that puts the 60 minute chart in a confirmed uptrend so go bulls.
I personally don’t care about moving average cross overs up or down because on fast moving markets the signal is too late, so to me the death cross and all that means nothing if the PPT Decides to fool the majority with their bag of tricks.
The SPY just closed 60 minute chart over a pivot so it is in an uptrend confirmed it could drop to low of day and still be in an uptrend, now the SPY Next move depends on the IWM and Q’s
The death cross does not even appear on the EMA.
Also Here’s my chart of the real MA studies..
http://img51.imageshack.us/i/sp500again.png/
wow amzn is being dumped now.
it hit the top of my triangle and is now heading towards the support of the triangle.. will be worth shorting soon.
very nice. I’ll be load more put into it
what is the good entry to short, Idan?
I would say 109.82 and below so far.. it’s an ascending support so that goes up at a rate of about 40 cents a day.
Hi Idan,
do you see the floating island on the 1 year chart?
you know what that means my friend!
I think it will be sub-90 dollars sooner than later
Idan,
suggestion to the website. I use my ipad a lot while i’m traveling. however, video is not supported because based on flash. Wonder if you would like to switch to different video format
new poster: what are your thoughts on FCX?
Needs to break 63.30 to be bullish, but right now the only trade i have on that is 63.00-63.20 as a short position with a stop above 63.40.
sold my puts this morning at a loss and bought calls.
now up 22% so far today.
i took my own advice and did the opposite of my instincts…works!
will dump them at 1070…
I have spy 105 calls (aug).
Sometimes you just gotta do it
Hi, Idan:
Did you reneter either on a break of 104.15 or at 104.70-105.10 again? Where is your stop?
I load some at 105.02.
Will SPY be pull back at end of the day?
Right now i’m waiting for a significant bounce before i load any more puts at 105.50 ish, my stops are probably going to be a little wider for reasssurance but that’s cuz my put position is small, stops probably in the 106.20 level and some more at 107.
You might not want to take that risk and instead get stopped out and re-enter.
soccer starts at 2:30, you guys/gals think we sell off then?
sold some AAPL at 255.4, that i bought at 249
Good technical analysis article this weekend for the bullish case. In hindsight, it was the right short term call. I liked the logic and analysis
http://www.safehaven.com/article/17371/bears-should-beware
great article
Sold my Teck calls for a nice gain. Will buy some more IMG.TO calls, they have big news coming out this week.
As I told you, 1100-1250 by EOY.
All the charts support it.
Keep shorting though., lmao.
There is no support for 1250 for EOY, at least not yet…, you’re being a little too hasty, be careful.
OK 1250 is a bit wild.
I do believe we’ll close anywhere from 950-1200 though by EOY, most likely in the midpoint of that.
65% of retail traders on your blog and mine are bearish.. that’s what has me scared because at the beginnig of this year, 60% of traders thought FAZ would close below $10 by EOY and today it’s at $16 far from what everyone thought.
I told everyone here on June 25 to stop looking for H&S, and look where we are! I’ve seen too many of them fail that it’s not even a reliable pattern in my TA book anymore. I hope some people had listened. The neckline was never meant to be a resistance!
Good news for the bulls too: the market has broken the 1987 pattern. Even though the danger zone has not passed entirely, stubborn shorts will likely be significantly weakened in the next month and half.
Fritz,
Are you still looking for 1150 -1170? Take a look at IMG.TO (IAG in NY) I`m thinking it will hit $20 in the next few weeks.
I’m taking a break from looking at my farm land choices right now. I have no idea where the market ends up turning to be honest, but what I can tell you is that we won’t go through 1987 style crash, at least not now. Remember what happened after the golden cross last year? Take the reverse of that if you want to gamble.
After the golden cross we retraced quite a bit and then moved up after about a month ….
what now for Amazon?
Should I sell my Aug 110 puts at a loss when it hits $113…or wait and put a stop loss when it hits $116? (I would take a significant hit if I do)
or is it stiill too early to do anything since i have another 6 weeks to go?
I think you should take a neutral stance here.. i would never let AMZN hit anywhere above 116.20.. but you shouldn’t hold a big position of puts into that.. maybe lighten up on any pull back tomorrow (if you get one) and re-enter higher at 115.70.
thanks…just recently got into technical analysis when making my investment decisions (I am more of a buy and hold guy)
the AMZN chart looked so good for a short that I thought chances were very good it would hit the 90′s
if AMZN doesnt go to the low 100′s or 90′s after analyzing the chart, I am done with technical analysis
I understand the frustration. But it’s not like you break a level and you just shoot down. Patterns will form as things happen, you have to play the patterns. We had a triangle formation.. we didn’t break it to the downside, instead we broke to the upside.
116 is a retest of H&S formation, very strong resistance, that’s the best entry point for a short before it falls back further IMHO.
This seems like a short covering rally. Volumes are low. I am not seeing much conviction among the bulls. I think SPX will probably test the 1040 level in the next day or two
this sounds exactly like the bears in denial back when the H&S failed in july..
“IT’S A DOUBLE RIGHT SHOULDER GUYS”
Right.. we all know how that went.
Actually, I have been quite bullish in the last week. I am 95% long. If you see some of my posts in the last week, I have been buying. I am looking at a lot of commodity stocks and I am seeing today’s price about 4% to 6% higher. However, the volume is 70% average trading volume.
No it’s not. The total volume on NYSE exceeded that of yesterday’s.
me too im long and im getting too biased, lol.
You also have to understand that trading works on supply/demand.
The 2000 point correction that just occured was way too fast. At the rate we were going, DOW 0 was almost inevitable. You gotta ask yourself are we going to DOW 0? No we’re not.. If you want to go short, I’d wait atleast for this bull to run out of steam. As you know big money moves markets, and big money CAN’T UNLOAD POSITIONS IN 1 DAY.
It took almost 3 weeks at 1200 for BIG MONEY TO UNLOAD,.
Unforunately for the bears, bottoms happen VERY fast as sseen by the 666.67 bottom.
I can’t see any logical sence to be short right now,.. dows not going to 0 guys.
lastly every bottom that has occured since march 9th has been a derivative of 666 or 9/11
The march bottom was SPX 666.67
The feb 2010 bottom was SPY 106.67.
The july 2010 bottom was SPX 1010.91 –> 9.11 / 01 [2001]
This is no coincidence.. but go ahead and laugh.
it is posts like this one that make me skeptical about you.
this type of stuff is total nonsense. and in a way i feel sorry for people who believe this stuff.
anyways, thanks for the bullish views…they did play a small part in me making money today.
I think you are just a little overly bullish, even though i’m a bear market believer, i realize today can breakthat notion. But on the other hand, i see no reason why this market should bottom at 1010 necessarily. Today is not enough to convince me of that.
In fact, the level where you KNOW that’s ture is only on a break of 1130, although i’ll become more bullish on a break of 1075-1080.
Right now i’m neutral. We can fall back down below 1040 tomorrow and this whole rally will fade in 2 days, or we can move higher and cause a bear trap.
To exaltedangel09,
Thank you for your chart at your blog! Forgive me I am new in trading and also got lots of longs. I do like your bullish outlook. So I go to my own StockChart account trying to create the same chart like yours. But then I don’t understand why in my weekly StockChart.com. The 20 EMA cross above 50 EMA was at Oct. 2009, but then MACD showing down trend from March this year to now?
still holding 50 AAPL @254… Got an extended hours Limit order to sell at 261 incase Cramer comes out screaming about AAPL, but I think he is on Vacation this week. But you know he would if he wasnt on vacation
I Confess that I DID NOT TELL YOU that a huge rally is coming. I TOLD YOU yesterday that today is goign to be upside, but never thought this rally. Now with this rally I have to go and look at some of my charts to find out what is goin gon. There is a probility that this is a major rally that continue and take us to 1220 again. BUT consider I am not saying that yet, I have to go and do my homework.
Anybody here knows how I can get realtime 60 MInutes charts for europ andAisan market. I think these days those market have a significant impact inour market and I have to go and look at the thier chart. Sine I am very STRONG in reading charts, as soon as I look at those charts I can find out what big boys are doing there and how they will impact us.
SWBB
I wouldn’t say neutral more like shell shocked lol. Low volume manipulated BS. tHIS GOES TO SHOW ANYONE WHEN A PROFIT IS IN FRONT OF YOU TAKE IT!
Go back to June 25 comments and have a look at my second last post that day.
I kept on telling people to stop looking for H&S. H&S everywhere… When looking at H&S, ALL criteria must be met. Even then, because it’s perhaps the most obvious pattern visible to traders, its reliability is reduced. It’s for amateurs. I used to love trading right after the pattern is complete against the masses because that H&S (or inverse H&S) failure is a massive opportunity. Congrats to those who went long on that breakdown again.