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Today we prepare ourselves for tuesday’s trading day. Looking back at friday we believe that he last 10 minutes of downward trading was long-term traders trying to take away risk into tuesday (after such a bearish week), rather than technical traders shorting.
We still believe that an A-B-C pattern to 103.90 or 104.70 is possible in order to retest the head and shoulders neckline before falling back down.
We also look at the XLF Head and Shoulders formation with neckline at 13.50 and tech (such as GOOG, EBAY and AAPL).
I am thinking of going short on AMZN. I want to buy the Aug 125 puts
-50 day moving average going thru 200 day on a downtrend
-broke the head & shoulders
-filling the gap down to 93
Does this look good to you?
thanks
I think you’re right… i think once we get the small bounce on the SPY of 1-1.5% and start our decline, i believe AMZN will be one of the weakest stocks out there. August 110/115 puts sound better to me.
Futures drop right off the bat. We may not get your 1-1.5% bounce until we get another 1-1.5% decline.
maybe not… futures are hitting new lows.. but be careful for a reversal on the futures to open higher… that can happen and keep the cash markets intact too for a 1038 hit.
and there’s the reversal i was talking about.
whipsaw action. unless some great news come out of europe, i don’t see any respectable snapback. remember last year when the markets just kept going up. a lot of experts said, it can’t be going up without any respectable retrace. well for the most part it didn’t. you’re 1-1.5% snapback may be more like .5-1% (coinciding with a tap of 1020). we already breached through Thurs. lows on the /es. But we’ll see. My TA side is telling me we should get a bounce but I’m expecting the worse.
well i stand corrected. market making a fool out of me…again!
For the record I dont see a us going to 1040 or above after what happened at Friday’s closing minutes…I see a gap down and 1020 will be the resistence
What share price should I have in mind to get out of my AMZN Aug puts?
anything below 110.50 is good.
I meant as a stop loss
thanks in advance
Would not let it go past 116 for sure.. if you’re more risk averse i would say 113.
If DTO breaks the resistance at 84.68, it looks like 97.5 may on the cards in a few days. Any thoughts?