Daily Video – Will be out monday! Happy July 4th, make sure to Click ” Like” on our fan page (to the left) and follow us on twitter: focalequity
3:16pm
SPY becoming slightly less bearish and more bullish into the end of the day as it breaks an inverse H&S formation with a neckline at 102.25-102.35 on the 1 min/5min charts. The bulls would really like to see a close above 102.54 to end the day into the holiday weekend. My intuition is that the bulls will drive the market up to 103.88 or 104.70 first before new lows. You can buy the SPY on a retest of 102.35 neckline with a stop below 102.20. Here’s the 1min:
LIVE TRADING (video) at 1PM EST.
1:49pm
POT is going to be trying to break 85.70, which is a very nice inverse H&S on the 1 minute or 5 minute charts. After bouncing off of 83.80 (long term support), it is likely to retest a few levels back.
11:53am
We got a nice correction lower… i think that was the (B wave) and now we are going to see wave C up to 104.70.. that’s my intution at this point.
11:25am
Netherlands 2-1 Brasil… while Brasil loses, the SPY touches 102.35… 50% retrace of the last 1 day rally is at 102.25, i expect really strong support there.
10:50am
$BP broke my descending line about 2 days ago.. now it’s got an inverse H&S formation with the neckline right at the 30.20 on its 30 minute chart. If it does break 30.20, I think it confirms the bottom and goes higher. With a break of 30.20 i expect a retest of that level first before we rally, so that would be the place to buy BP with a stop below 30.
10:10am
Brasil scored their first goal against the netherlands 
. Goog is testing it’s 442 level.. a break of that will shove GOOG much closer to 450.
9:55am
SPY back down below 102.88 after retesting that 103.50-103.55 level. That said, i still think we have more room up to go to at least 103.88 or 104.70. I’ll only get bearish now upon a break of 102.35.
9:51am
Goog trade still not working that well, we are retesting the 50% retrace again, hopefully get a bounce sooner rather than later. My stops are in the 435s. Below is a daily H&S formation of WFC, which could see a bounce to retest the breakdown level at around 26.40. Some people say WFC hasn’t started it’s left shoulder yet, and that the neckline is actually at 25. That’s also a possibility, but then that also means we go higher to form the right shoulder.
9:29am
Well, we continue to move higher like we predicted here, about to open above the 23.6% retrace, my guess is we wont find really strong resistance until 103.55 and 103.88. Here’s the 60 minute SPY for you guys to look at with my fib retracements. I believe the 50% retrace is going to be the most likely reversal point.
Loading ...12:01am
I wanted to post this video below from the president of elliott wave international. Even though this is a few months old, it still very similar to my view of the markets.
Prechter on CNBC: Market Pro: Long Bear Market Looming
Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International, tells host Maria Bartiromo why he sees dark days ahead on CNBC’s Closing Bell.
Download Your FREE 50-Page Ultimate Technical Analysis Handbook
In this free 50-page eBook from Bob Prechter’s Elliott Wave International, you will discover some of the very best technical methods used by the top professional technicians in the world. You will learn which tools are best for analyzing chart patterns, which are best for anticipating future price action, even which are best for spotting high-probability turning points. Download Your Free Technical Analysis eBook here.
8:30am… jobs report, get ready for a nice move from that number.
10:00am .. factory orders.
Futures are up does that imply the number may be better than the street expects and we havea big bounce..
Or will the number be pretty bad and we retest yesterdays lows then bounce..Any thoughts Idan on how you think it may play out ??? Ps: I know it’s impossible to predict but i picked up a TZA position yesterday @$8.70 and i am debating whether to hold it or sell it right after the employment number in anticipation of a bounce then buy it back up around 1040…What would you do if you were in my situatiuon..Thanks in advance !!!
Well, the best way to think about it is not what the street expects, but what the bulls/bears want to see.
Both the bulls and the bears want a retest of 1040+ again… that’s why even bad news will bring this market up.. and that’s what we got.
Interesting option activity on WFC yesterday. Over 10,000 contracts of the July 31 puts, over 10,000 July 28 puts, over 27,000 July 25 puts. My best guess is large credit put spread bets for WFC which will be profitable with WFC over 26. On the 31, 25 strike you stand to loose $1 to make $5. I don’t think WFC will rally to 31 for maximum profit of $5 though. Any other opinions on what kind of option strategy might be at work here? Impossible to know what hedge might be occurring with underlying stock as well.
Sitting in the red on DIS, X, TBT. Will look to cut bait at just under 104 SPX.
Idan, last week, you forcasted that SP would go down to 880. Is your forcast still held or the market will have a short term bounce to north for one week or so before hit to south? How your middle term and long term forcast?
The 880 forecast is one that might take months. My forecast is no longer valid if we break back above 1050. But for now i’m assuming we find resistance very very soon at 1038-1048 and start falling back down.
My longterm forecast is still unsure.. but 880 is a middle term forecast.
Just like I figured TV president is on telling us how the jobs are being created and how the unemployment rate went down……………..yawn. Unbedlievable! Face it it sucked. Spin it TV president keep a spinning it ROTFMO.
Whatcha think Idan with UNG? Drifting back down a bit think it might be the time to buy some or wait?
I’m a buyer… don’t let it fall under 7.97 or else it’s over. I already have 10,000 shares of UNG priced at 8.08
Yay goog is back up in positive territory.. lets go goog! Make me money.
RIG- backtesting 49. In with some July 50 calls @ 1.95. Stop set if RIG falls below 48.85
I hope you got out of UNG IDAN it is below 7.97.
my stops at 7.92
what?! you’re cheering for brazil?!
YES!!!
1-1, awesome!
My dad’s brazilian. blah 1-1.
well it should make you feel a bit better that brazil scored both goals.
My condolences Idan. It’s 2-1 for the Dutch. Can’t rule out brazil though 10 mins left.
1-1!!
Looks like ta got stopped out on UNG @ 7.92 Idan.
yup.. just not working out…
are all the bulls watching the game or something?
haha i think so.. i think they are back now.
Hey where’s the PPT? Shouldn’t they be propping up this pig before the big holiday?
Woo what are your targets for the rally, are you believing in an ABC rally here to 104.70 too?
i was thinking 1038+ on SPX, but it might not get there. there’s a chance that we’re going to do a bit of a drawn out 4 of 5 that might mean 1038 is coming, but not for another 2 days minimum.
Perhaps bulls watching this…..
http://xtvids.blogspot.com/2010/01/aeternum-vale.html
I saw this video for the first time this morning, and it put the final fear in me against going long. I just can’t watch the market closely enough if there’s another “flash crash”.
Personally, I am hoping for another spike up in SPX so I can enter shorts again. Hopefully this is not P3 yet, because from what I am reading (I’m no EW expert), once that sucker starts drifting down, it’s very difficult to “catch the wave”. This time I hope to enter shorts a little early, to reserve my seat.
Disclosure: I am not a daytrader, rather I’m more comfortable holding positions when I believe the overall trend is up or down. While I believe the trend is currently up (very Short term) feels like overall trend is going back down. Similarities to the 1930 charts is eerie.
History does repeat.
Intersting, SPY Max pain – July 2010 – (if this calculator is right, which I often hear is questionable) is currenly 110. I would have thought it was even lower. This is ~ 7.8% above current spy price.
FAZ max pain = 14 (24.4% below current price)
FAS max pain = 23.3 (29% above current price).
In the case of FAS, looks like max pain is disbursed almost equally over the range of 21.6 – 25.
For FAZ, there currently is a true savings if the MM can hit 14 price during opex.
Of course, if the calculator has bad data…….
http://www.optionpain.com/OptionPain/Option-Pain.php
Cottonman, PPT better save whatever bullets they have left. O did give a rah rah speach earlier today, “we are creating jobs”…Timmy G was there too.
Fed really can’t lower rates, stimulus is not looked upon too favorably and tax cuts will expire in 6 months.
Lowest mortage rates since the 60′s yet people who need low rates can’t get approved. Our firm just helped a client with ~ $5,000 in annual income obtain a mortgage with almost no doc’s checked. She does have assets to pay the loan, assuming she doesn’t ever need to buy food, clothing, etc. If I was asked to evaluate this loan…no way… to risky. However, this was with a mortgage broker so someone else will be left holding the bag.
Hi, Idan
AIG has oversold in 5-day chart, Is it time to load some shortly?
Thanks
You might be right.. it’s got a H&S formation (we are actually breaking down) but this is the first hit of the right shoulder.. it seems too easy to be true… make sure you have a stop though, i dont think its going to bounce for that long.
FAZ 13 / 34 moving averages kissing on 15 min chart.
Now 13 / 34 crossover on spy (15 min) – or they are kissing.
Not able to log into Focal live trading site. Just will not load for some reason.
BP is still holding its line. stopped out for profit in the morning. back in again in the low 20s. crossing fingers that it does not break below.
Woo that BP is still a bit to risky for me. The potential for more civil lawsuits could be enormous and if and I say IF I was to even mess with it I might put an offer in the 20-21 range. Outside of that there are much better plays out there than that train wreck JMHO. GLTY
i’ll probably get rid of it before the day is over. the 3 day weekend will result in too much decay.
Let’s keep this simple. Last year the market made a huge bottom in early July.
Looks like the same phenomena is occuring again
Looks like there’s only a 30-40 point reward on the downside and a 400 point reward on the upside
just trying to balance out this equation guys
-im permabull
zee
Guys, I’m so long it’s unbelievable.. I just lost 5% of my portfolio today on a -1% day in the market.. that’s how long I am..
Weren’t you calling for Dow 1000000000 yesterday, or some other rediculous number? “good” jobs report knocked down your estmate?
and all your shares of GE?
if you are really that long be careful.
GE @ 14.06
FAZ @ 16.75 [short]
Short 2X oil etf’s [HOD.TO] @ 10.something
KO @ 50
This is a 6-12 month play. Intraday these positions may go down further than my avg. purchase price.
short 2x oil BEAR etf’s.. *typo*
Robert, ‘zee’ is ‘exaltedangel09′, if you know the way that I post, I post very sarcastic/extreme responses to provoke both laughter and thoughts on one’s position. The Dow 10 million was obviously meant to be funny. Where do I think we head? A re-test of 1100 on the S&P is warranted.
You seem to be fairly frustrated on my opinion. But do not forget and I wouldn’t discount my opinion entirely, I have called for this crash back in November 2009. In-fact I have been dead on with every wave count.
The crash is done. Private sector added 88,000 jobs.. That’s pretty good in my books.
Let’s recover now (no eminem pun intended)
Here is my chart: http://ning.it/9tn8Iv
Zee, exalt, or whomever, I really am not frustrated by your opinion. I read, digest, analyze but always make my own educated decisions where and how to invest.
Other people on this board do follow blindly (ie: Please tell me ASAP if I should sell) and that’s why I was “snippy”. Obvously dow 10 gazillion was an overstatement, but your “jokes” may cause people to follow you.
I don’t know the future, and I agree very short term the upside potential is greater than the downside. however, now that everyone is bullish (they know it’s going up), I’m getting cold feet..even though this feels like a rangebound bottoming process.
IMO, holding leveraged longs for 6 – 12 months is dangerous. For your sake, if you are really planning to hold, I hope you are correct…or perhaps more importantly, I hope you know when to cut your losses. Trade lightly – again, just my opinion. Good luck all.
BTW, I cant trade short in my account, and I don’t trade options, so I generally stick with FAZ / FAS. I came darn close to opening a small FAS long position yesterday, I’m glad I didn’t. So we are thinking somewhat alike (short term). You would actually have an edge short faz over my long fas, due to decay.
Idan,
Is there such a thing as a long term H&S pattern that TA people watch, or do you focus more on long term channels, resistance, etc? Looking at a ~ 10 year chart of the S&P 500 appears like a monster H&S pattern. Perhaps that has more significance to Elliot Wavers?
Yeah… there is a monster H&S on the dow on the 20 year charts… I don’t believe in the targets that the H&S projects, but i do believe in the fact that H&S formations form when there is bearish action that wants to break them down… and there are Inverse H&S when the bulls are taking control.
Vxx – iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) – down ~ 1.2% and falling, with falling market. I’m probably not the only one confused.
i tried out the new one week options today and was betting for a move up, that we may still get it but i am terrible at short term options
My 1 million dollar portfolio closed trades and last quarter track record on http://www.focalequity.com/service/Alerts-and-Analytics-Important-Facts.php
To exaltedangel09:
Last year the market made a huge bottom in early March not In early July.
There was a second bottom made in july with the failed H&S.
Oh how people seem to forget history.
I just have a strong feeling the market EOD is green. Again another manipulated BS crock.
ITYS.
debating whether or not to hold BP…
second day bullish confirmation above the 5 year long term trend line. broke north out of a two day wedge.
but holding over a 3 day weekend equates to a lot of decay…
I thought I’d drop by to say hello before I head off next week to buy my big farm land. To be cautious, I’d advise all to get out of unprotected longs. Woo, take a look at 1987 chart and you’ll know what I mean.
yeah. i’m out of my bp for a good profit the second time today. not holding into the weekend. too dangerous.
i’ll trade monday based on where we open.
good to hear from you =)
Market is going to be flat all day on Monday..
Yup market will be the flattest MONDAY since Memorial day ROTFLMO!
Independence day actually…and it will be closed..so yeah flat I guess..LOL!!
Have a great weekend everyone!!
No I said “SINCE” which the last Monday the market was closed was Memorial Day. This coming Monday will be Independence Day lol.
Wow what a close that was!
no clue.. my guess eople just don’t want to hold into this weekend.. probably will not have any affect on market tuesday.. the fact that we were able to go to new highs today and put in a higher low is more important (that’s my thought)
oh how I wish Woo’s bullish views on UAUA hadn’t ever been posted but I was the one who covered too early, Idan and Woo thanks for all the info here, it is a great forum, have a good weekend
I TOLD YOU that any rally will be sold off by big boys. I TOLD YOU THIS YESTERDAY. MY portfolio has no room for money anymore and I have to take a break and go to vacation and spent some of these money and then come back and make more money I TOLD YOU in advance every move in this week. I TOLD YOU A VERY EXACT NUMBER ALL THE TIME.
Today eventualy UAUA was broken down. It was very bullish but eventually big boys in UAUA realized that market is in a huge correction and they should get out. I am looking to see UAUA drops to 200MA in next couple days. If market drops below S&P 1000 then UAUA will reach to 14 very very soon.
HAPPY 4th of July
SWBB
Yikes, I may have jumped the gun on this one.
Bought UCO, SNP, and SPY at close today.
Please don’t gap down on Tuesday.