3:33pm
My guess is we test 103.88 for sure on the SPY. You can see the 5 min below, that’s the 38.2% retrace of the whole last move lower and therefore i think 103.88 on 38.2 or 104.70 on 50% will be incredibly important levels:
TRADING LIVE VIDEO at 1PM EST
3:13pm
GE is likely to bounce on the support area that we are at now (14.10-14.12) on the daily. Seeing it at 14.50-14.70 won’t surprise me, it is very oversold and needs to get a nice little bounce in it. I’m a buyer of that stock at this point for a very short term bounce.
goo
3:12pm
Yes, i’m buying some UNG as it’s on it’s way down here… hoping for some more pull backs to the low 8s too.
2:11ppm
UNG just hit the 8.30 mark that i said was an incredibly important level. As you can see in the 60 min chart below, it has a left (double) shoulder, a head and it could be ready to build the right shoulder. With it hitting 8.30, my guess is that it’s going to fall a little bit to build that inverse right shoulder and i can buy it at 8.00-8.20 and put a stop right below 7.97:
12:00pm
A lot of people had criticism on the trade I made shorting GOLD at $96.36 for my Alerts & Analytics service well right now.. we are making a 4% profit on that so far with a profitable trade. GLD seems to have borken it’s very strong 119.5-119.7 support line and has a long way to go… turns out we were right 
11:32am
It’s Google’s time to shine. GOOG has been doign awful for a while, and is very oversold. With the hit of the 50% retrace (which we predicted), I want to be buying this stock right here hoping for at least a retest of 462-463.
10:55am
Will be looking to buy some CALLs on the SPY very very soon.. i want to see the inverse H&S on the 1 minute break out at 101.75 first. Or i’ll wait for the 38.2% retrace which is at 101.1 on the SPY and SPX at 1009.. but in any case we’re talking about a few tenths of a %.
10:50am
SPX hits my targets PERFECTLY…. that’s amazing. Nice little bounce coming in.. a break of 101.78 on the 1 minute is an inverse H&S.
10:47am
JPM crashing with the other banks… If you’re in short on JPM make sure you have a trailing stop that is making profits but the only supports i really see are 34 and 32 right now… far far away.
10:42am
As per my live charts, which you can see above you… 101.35 strong support on the SPY fibs… 1012-1015 very strong support… i think we can get a market bounce here.
10:38am
Unloading all my puts here at $101.62 on the SPY.. we just hit my target for this sell off… i’m now looking for a retest of 1040.
10:32am
AAPL is getting ready to bounce on a support line here after a major collapse in the first hour. $245.50 buy with a stop in the high 244s makes sense to me, plus the SPY is getting oversold here:
10:19am
EUR/USD showing a very nice inverse H&S formation on the 4 hour charts. That could help the market bounce:
10:14am
I am thinking of covering my SPY puts right at around 101.70 or so… with about 180-200% profit.
10:04am
We are starting to break the BAC flat neckline for it’s H&S formation. Take a look at the daily and see. The way i would trade this though, is i would wait for a retest of that neckline and go short there, even though it’s not too late to pile in, i rather get better entry points with tight stops:
9:52am
WYNN Â (60 min) is getting closer to a very important support line. In fact, there are two lines: 1. 38.2% retracement from the whole fall, which it is going to retest again (important level to break for bears to confirm double top). Right underneath it we also have an ascending line that will form support. Those two should create a great buying opportunity for WYNN. However, if we do break that level (at 74.40-74.50). I think WYNN will join the rest and accelerate downards:
12:47am
Here’s the SPY daily chart that I had on my video last night. You can see that we do have a bit more to go to reach the 38.2% retrace at 101.5-101.6 on the SPY… we might see a bounce only then, but i am preparing for a retest of the H&S neckline back to the 104.65 level very soon and then i’ll put back my shorts on. I’m currently holding a few puts (took most of the profits yesterday):
12:01am
If you like using Leveraged ETFs such as FAZ, FAS, TZA, TNA, SKF Â and are interested in likely targets for the market, look no further than our own Woo, who continues to be right on the money.
For only 1 dollar a day you can ask him to post his fib targets for your favorite ETFs. Sign Up for FocalEquity Leveraged ETF PRO today!
There was a terrible unemplyment number but the premarket is rallying? What am I missing?
Market really wants to retest breakout point… we might still fall down first to 1012-1015.. but we most likely want to go back to 1040-1050.
BP is rallying too… up 4.5% and above 30 now
Long weekends bring market reversals?
I dippied my toe in some AAPL at 254
sign… too early
Better undip em AAPL is gonna head back to the 240′s.
not too worried about it as I recently sold it at 272 and my cost basis is low
Bad report out, glad I stayed short, but looking to sell FAZ today. Feel a turn up coming.
construction, manufacturing and new home sales, all worse than expected
wow. we just dropped like a rock.
there isn’t really support until the 1012-1015 level…. my fib targets are on the SPY range from 101.35-101.6
1014, there it is Idan.
Let’s see what happens…
1020, here it is.
see if it holds.
The only thing that is not following this sell off is the dollar. The dollar needs to rally back for true confirmation for the bears.
Very true.. there are 2 things that could be happening:
1. Weakening of dollar will put upward pressure in the market.
2. Inverse correlation between dollar and market is fading.
I’m going to stick to number 1 for now because a change of trend doesn’t happen often, but it might be true.
I love the smell of napalm in the morning.
I love the smell of tim hortons coffee..
ge at $14?
GTFO of here.
just placed a bid for 5,000 shares.
BUY EVERYTHING GUYS, STOCKS ARE CHEAP!
Do not be fooled by support levels. Just buy!!! You’ll regret it dearly in 6 months time.
Common, only another 9 cents before you fill my 5,000 shares at $14… my mouth is salivating.
GO BULLS
GO BULLS
bulls looking very strong today.. were holding 1020 nice..
GO BULLS.
WE HELD, NEXT STOP DOW 15000!!
SEE YA THERE IN 6 MONTHS.
SWBB
lols i don’t see 1020 as an important level.. i see 1014-1015 as an important level.
Bulls are NOT looking strong today at this time. Nice try though lol
UNG on a tear again think it’s time to play a little of that IDAN?
wait for the low 8.30s to break.. i want to be sure that there is a chance for this to go to new highs otherwise the trend is still lower.
FAZ on a tear I see it potentially hitting the 20′s
At the rate we’re falling, we’ll be back to S&P 600 in no time and the economy will fall with the market.
Obama, now’s the time to start injecting money into the markets!!!
Support QE 2.0 and Buy Some STOCK!!!
BOOYAH.
good morning idan,
where do you see JPM on this slide?? bounce at??
thanks..i’m in and riding it down
Posted something on that right above
Yes I believe you are right Idan the typical correlation of the dollar up and market down is not true today so far. This tells me that we are indeed in a new trend which is down.
1,014.55
Feel like kicking myself for selling my TZA Aug 7 calls at 1.55 buy at 1.27 – they are 2.4 now …
i feel like kicking myself for a whole host of things, lol.
1012 now
hoping for a bounce here
im looking for a bottom at these levels loll.
They froze the market! Circuit breakers kicken in on this masive sell off
about time!
someone knows something about tomorrow.
1007 is 38.2 retrace from March lows …
1008.55.. yeah..
But SPY one is at 101.1 and that hit .
To bad the sell off was not at the end of the day. Something tells me it will rally back. Lock your profits!
Something tells me, that the bottom is VERY near in terms of price, but not necessarily in time.
I’m a buyer.
10,000 shares of GE AT 14.06.. can’t get better than that.
Here’s my cycle prediction: http://ning.it/9tn8Iv
I said 985 will be the bottom.. 1300 here we come.. ride er’ up.
i hope this is your play money, money that you are willing to see disappear.
Not really, nothing goes down in a straight line.
At the rate were going, the dow is headed to 0 which it isn’t.
I have realistic rationale on my side.
I hope you’re right but the market is a funny thing, it might go down in a straight line.
There are 0 guarantees.
Putting tight stop on 2nd third of FAZ (sold 1/3 last night)… will likely sell remaining 3rd today…hopefully after a bump up.
Yeah.. we do have slight room to move down to 1009-1012.. but that’s where i’m buying the market… woo what are your thoughts?
keeping trailing stop on 500 shrs of FAZ, about 10 cents below current price, keep moving stop up
WATCH OUT NEW LOWS AGAIN.
1,010.91
GUYS ITS 9/11
ILLUMINATI.
Is it time to panic kent?
Yes, yes it is.
Idan,
101.3 is getting tested a lot here in the past 30 mins. Even if it’s strong support, you’d have to think that it won’t hold up if it keeps on getting poked at no?
That’s true usually… in fact, 38.2% retrace of market rally sitting at 1009… we might just get a jab below 101.3 to hit 100.9 and then rally back up. But we’ll see… we are definitely in the last 0.5-1% of the sell off..
101.1 is the 38.2% retrace on the SPY though.
I’m thinking we might touch the SPX 1000 and I am a buyer of FAS for a bounce. If those employment numbers are worse than expected tomorrow market will then push down to that 900 level. Still suspicious though that they could be better than expected and market will rally big.
Better yet, the numbers come out negative, we gap down, and finally bottom because everything is priced in at that point.
EXACTLY but this sell off came too early today and it just gives the market more time to rally back as the MM’s rake the cash. Don’t be greedy take the profits.
interesting.. Oil keep dropping like a rock…
Idan, do you think it’s good a buy now since it’s a hurricane season?
Actually if a hurricane shows up the price of oil will go up! With prices low right now I wwould be a buyer gradually. JMHO
Hurricane season doesn’t really matter. Yes it’s true, we can get peaks here and there, but the problem with oil is demand… Unless USO rallies above 34.. i don’t like it. And i’d be shorting it at 34 with a stop above.
Crude oil tanking and OIH isn’t tanking as much. My theory is that RIG (positive) and HAL (was positive) is holding it artificially up. Once low volume up move on RIG is up, we could see OIH go down much further.
I’m long July put spreads. TOS is as slow as a turtle for me so I can’t post what those strike prices are. Just wanted to share with you guys.
See how they are bringing back down? I guarantee the market will be below the tripple digit loss first.
Ahh did you bears miss the bottom and not buy stock
It’s okay, you can always buy stocks at dow 100,000
Saucer bottom on the 1 min.
triple bottom on the daily
goldman sachs bottom by the ’1040 article’ <– play the contrarion.
all signs are leading to S&P 1300.
ready?setLIFT-OFF
The first bottom is known as the satan bottom.. 666.67
this bottom is known as the terrorist bottom.. 1010.91
coincidence? i think not.. the feb bottom was 106.67 on the spy.. check it up yourself… i take pride in my numerology.
What are you buying Zee – any options ?
today is looking like tuesday
nahhh not at all… today’s bounce is going to be much more significant… and a lot more conviction here too. We hit an important level today and you can’t break that level on a first hit for sure…
Tuesday, we had an important level like 1040, but we hit that 4 times before hand.
agreed, I’m actually thinking a green close to f everybody up. Bet a ramp up close to opex to f all the bearish puts. (JMHO).
GL All.
Scary, but going a little on the long side
AAPL @ 245.00 – thanks Idan for the chart above
UCO @ 8.79
SPY @ 101.75
only a little?
lmao this is a 20% discount..
too bad you already missed the illuminiati bottom
dows going to 100000000 sorry.
Stops set all with profit now
Awesome call on the SPY 101.35 bounce.
Loving it, but can’t get greedy
UCO stopped @ 8.82 (damn you trailing stop + meetings!)
AAPL stopped out @ 247.24
Going to close last 1/3 of FAZ. I don’t wanna be a hog.
moving up stops, thanks market for the extra spy poop.
If you are looking to get out of FAZ wait till it hit’s the days highs again because it will and potentially will run into the 19′s. Personally I am going to be patient and wait till it hit’s back in the 20′s. However if you can make a profit go for it. JMHO
Thanks, I’m pleased with profit now, willing to stop out. I am trading in a T + 3 account, so I want to free up cash so I can quasi day / swing trade.
So much bearishness the trade feels too crowded. IMO, much more upside potential (Very short term) than additional downside. I can see low / mid 900′s S&P vs 1050′s plus.
Going short when everybody was sure market was going up felt more comfortable for me. IMO, this type of market has potential to f with bulls and bears. I actually got trapped short about a week or two ago, and glad I held. It happened to work out well for me, but I don’t want to push it. When this market does move, it may be brutal (swings).
For me, cash right now feels like the proper position. My heart tells me go long, but I can’t pull that trigger.
GLTA
any thoughts on gld
Great entry point was to short it upon a break of the 119.5-119.7 support… now we confirmed a double top at 123.50.
That said, longer term GLD could still have another move higher… we will only know if GLD will join the bear market if it breaks below 115 ish, which is the line that was the neckline for the Inverse H&S jan-april, and the retest back in late may.
Dow 9,648.19 -125.83 -1.29%
Nasdaq 2,078.44 -30.80 -1.46%
S&P 500 1,016.26 -14.45 -1.40%
10 Yr Bond(%) 2.9080% -0.4300
Oil 72.35 -3.28 -4.34%
Gold 1,207.50 -38.00 -3.05%
Bought Aug ACI 20 calls.
Alrighty just as I suspected the market is coming back. Have seen this all to amny times.
many*
Ok, everybody together now, REVERSAL?
I see at least a back test of 1040.
in for more SPY!
puts. august 102.
stopped out on earlier position based on break back above the fib projection in the 1014-1015 area.
SPX 1028 was my put position point.
here’s an updated chart of what was posted in the Leveraged ETF subscription area.
played 1028 break in the morning.
http://social.focalequity.com/photo/woo1month-111?context=user
short term RSI has tons of room to drop. longer term 1 year RSI still has room to go before a trend line.
if this keeps on track we could see a 1030 hit. need to be careful if you are short.
1028 fib is holding for now… still in my SPY puts. not safe yet though.
Idan what is your target for the S+P on the low end and in what time frame ???
My Target is 945 for now for sometime later this year probably 2 months.
880 by years end is possible too. But it’s tough to tell right now, i need to see the action first and then i can predict better.
I got long some BEXP a Bakken Oil play at 14.8. Got a limit order to sell at 15.5
BEXP has been very good to me
Will TZA break the $9.00 level during this correction..Thanks
Good call on the Gold short Idan, I’m with you and shorted a few weeks ago (with DZZ) and finally am in the green on that trade after feeling stupid for quite a while. I’m also finally ahead on my SCO as well. Thinking of putting in tight stops on both right now.
GLD finally broke below the 50ma
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p27132725196&a=200323870
have to be careful though, this doesn’t make it completely bearish. and could bounce back. very nice on the short play of the break of two major trend lines and 50ma. =)
Woo,
Thanks for the info, much appreciated. I think I’ll put a tight stop on half my position, and let the rest ride with looser stops in that case.
I almost went long twice today (in trading account) , but I just cannot pull that trigger. Going to sit on sideline and stay in cash. GLTA.
PS – lots of volume on this board —> typically bearish mentality.
I still believe SPY will close green.
BTW, where is S135, I miss his commentary. Is Uner still around?
schweitzer (s135) has been gone for a while now. not sure what he’s up to. there was a falling out with uner. i believe he’s doing well though.
we’ll see if SPY can break this potential right shoulder and go into the 1028+ territory, that would allow for a rise to 1030 if not higher and get you the green you’re looking for.
i wouldn’t be surprised if they drew things out at least another hour.
Got a feeling we see lots of choppy action for the rest of the session, but at closing time the levels we see right now at 2:17 Eastern time will hold or even close slightly lower than this. Anybody agree/disagree??
a 1030s break will probably call for a rise to the 38% retrace at 1038.
at 1030 there was a trend line and a fib projection. should create some resistance. this is still my break point of getting out of my SPY puts and possibly switching to a long position.
Woo,
Makes sense to me. My feeling is 1030 holds as resistance today, and we don’t see 1038 again until tomorrow or Monday if at all.
that’s what i’m hoping for. if we don’t get any solid action in either direction, i may need to unload half if not all of my puts to minimize some risk. i should’ve raised my stops earlier and locked in the small but decent profit on my current SPY puts, but I got a little greedy haha. Still doing well for the day with that beautiful 1028 break in the morning. can’t complain.
Woo,
I’m with you 100%. I sold half my short positions today for nice profits, but some would have been even nicer had I sold slightly earlier or slightly later in the session
Oh well, what can you do, we just keep doing what we’re doing, and I really appreciate the insight and advice you and Idan share with us, you guys rock, as the saying goes 
Just sold my entire position in SCO at $16.21 for a nice little profit.
congrats =)
Woo,
Much appreciated!! Looking to sell my TWM at a small profit, stops set at $23.68. However if it reaches $24.18 first I might just sell it today. It at $23.95 as we speak.
positive divergence on 5 min Vix
Got rid of my ACI calls for a scalp, playing it safe.
a market close between 1028-1030 would be ideal. 1028 into EOD would be a retouch of the trend line that was previously at 1030, and a fib hit.
it would also be a ridiculously annoying close for me.
still keeping my fingers crossed for a good opportunity to get out before close.
uh-oh.
here comes the 3pm sell off.
alright….that’s some good action.
raising my stops to lock in some profit. in @ 4.22, stop @ 4.42
raising stop to 4.45. want to see a drop continue sooner than later.
raised to 4.50
my stop hit. sold at 4.49.
currently sitting right in that area, and could go more, but that’s fine. had some good ETF trades today, and two solid SPY put trades. time for a good lunch!