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4:00pm
SPX confirms a second close (2 down candles that close next to their lows) below the H&S formation. Thus, the H&S is now in full play and has a target of 880 at least. With that it is important to undestand that not everyday is a crash day, we might even retest 1040 as resistance before we breakdown again. But, this is the confirmation of a start of a P3 wave, or a major correction.
Heres the daily:
Idan will trade LIVE on VIDEO at 1PM EST
3:40pm
SPY on track to confirm a new closing low and a breakdown of the H&S formation on the SPX daily…. with that the Bulls have lost the battle and we have a target of 88 on the SPY (at least) based on the H&S formation. We need a close below 103.55 though.
11:36am
Spy 10 minute has an inverse H&S formation (although relatively small.. with a descending neckline here is the 10 min:
11:11am
SPY playing around the 10 minute 20SMA, very undecided for the moment, but 104.20 proved itself as a very important intraday support… if that breaks, we have a great short entry point.
10:45am
INTC 10min retested the 20 dollar level as resistance today (former huge huge support line for months)... it could be ready to dump very soon:
10:43am
USO getting hit here as well as the SPY. Remember the SPY has to break 104.20 to the downside before i have a more bearish bias on today.
10:29am
NFLX was a stock i short sold for my Alerts & Analytics subscribers right at the top in the 120-130 range. We already took profits on this stock but right now it’s close to my 23.6% retracement right at 109.83… it might get a day or two of a bounce, but it falls under that, i think it might get a nice sell off… I’d wait for a new low or to be conservative, a break of 108.10.
10:06am
We will have the oil inventories coming in soon. But currently USO is sitting on a very important support right at $34. A break of that will probably push us back to new lows for oil DESPITE the fact that we have a lot of reasons to be bullish on oil short term (due to inventory depletion and hurricane in the gulf of mexico).
10:01am
GS on the verge of breaking down on the 60 minute, take a look at how it’s right on channel support… a breakdown will cause new lows and a great entry point to go short. A break of SPY 104.20 will be very bearish for the market, but unless that happens the momentum is still bullish today with 104.40 being some support too.
9:55am
AMZN 60min was strong right off the gate and reversed it’s breakdown of the 110.60.. now that it’s between 110.68 and 116.. i’d wait for a closer retest of the 116 level to go short at. My guess is the strongest resistnace will come at around 115.70 (i’ll used that to short, and put a stop above 116.20).
9:45am
PMI = 59.1, a little lower than expected, but the market rallied on the news.
9:36am
104.18 getting hit here for a gap fill..
9:26am
Futures are slightly down, this doesn’t look good for the bulls at all. The bulls really need to push this market up right out of the gate to get back in the game and reverse the breakdown of the H&S formation. We have Chicago PMI coming out at 9:45 am.
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12:12am
Here’s my Daily Amazon $AMZN chart, yesterday we both broke the 116 H&S formation neckline level and the 110.60 support level. I think today or tomorrow we might come back an try to at least retest the 110.60 level and that could be a great shorting opportunity as prior support becomes resistance. once 110.60 gets hit put a stop right above, and hope to ride the 10-12% gap down.
12:01am
I have been very bearish on AMZN for a while, to reinforce my views it looks like INO’s Adam has got a video about his bearish views on AMZN as well.
Using MarketClub analysis and a few simple tools
Adam is predicting a substantial pull back from the
extreme highs AMZN has seen pretty recently.
Today’s Schedule
- MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET
- Charles Evans Speaks 8:00 AM ET
- * ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM ET
- Chicago PMI 9:45 AM ET
- * EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET
- Dennis Lockhart Speaks 12:30 PM ET
Today’s Deal
- http://www.spoofee.com/index.php?section=deal&did=648889&ref=fe
will sell out the DE from yesterday and double up on DIS
What level are you buying DIS at? What’s your stop?
No stop, am adding at 31.53 now.
safe to short amzn at this point idan?
With AMZN above 110.60 now.. i’d wait for somehwere closer to the 116 area .. maybe 114-115.5 with a stop above 116.
went short 2K shares at $112.00. Idan Ive been telling you about AMZN and if you look at the 1 year chart it has a floating island on top and recently broke down.
85-90 is my target but illkeep on trading it. gl2 all
I’m very bearish on AMZN, but 112 is not a resistnace at all.. not really an entry point for me, cuz i wouldn’t know where to put a stop… 116 is the neckline of the H&S formation, so i can just put a stop above it and have only a 30 cent stop.
Actually the consensus was 59.7 and it came in LOWER at 59.1. Market is looking to rally on anyting and that IMHO is not anything to rally about.
Yeah you might be right… that’s my mistake.
XLF getting ready to break 14 and once that happens bears will continue with their downward pressure on market.
Let’s hope.. SPY still seems pretty strong.. but finally backing down to 104.20 levels… then there’s 103.90 for last support before double bottom.
SPY 5 minute chart is forming an inverse H&S with a neck line at around 1047
Idan, what you mean double bottom. Double bottom to 104 on June 8 2010 or 66 March 9 2009?
well when i’m talking about the intraday action, i usually mean the lowest (closest) low.. in this case it’s 103.50.
I do believe we have a chance to hit 66, but that’s not for a year but that might not happen either, we’ll see about that as we see the waves down.
Idan,
I have been short on ebay from 21.36. IMO, this might get some support in the low 19s. Do you have a target on this to the downside?
Hey,
Well first of all you should make sure you have a stop that provides you with profit no matter what, and i would not put it any higher than 20.60 in your case (you might consider to make it tighter than that of course).
I think some support will come in on the gap, but eventually it’ll want to test 19.10 (50% retrace).
Thanks Idan. I had my stops at 20.41 (5 cents above yesterdays high).
k, faz back to ground zero from yesterday …
Thanks you ADP (kidding, I really hate this freakin unemployment and the damage it’s causing…but not time to ramp). If they don’t extend unemployment… where there be breadlines again. Damed if you do..damned if you dont.
lol, that was quick
sold out DE 55.2 yesterday, sold 56.3
double down DIS 32.57, bought more 32.08
sold out UAUA, 20 yesterday, sold 21.05
what is wrong with DIS, bought some for family on weakness and its just not performing the way I wish… oh well give it a little more time then a few days
I expect back over 33 by end of week, Monday at the latest. Outside the lower bollinger band currently.
From Robert McHugh:
Stocks Markets are flat out dangerous at this time. Stocks plunged Tuesday after last week’s key reversal week. Tuesday was the tenth 90 percent panic selling down day since April, telling us the market remains fragile and dangerous. Please warn your friends. With six 90 percent up days interspersed among the ten 90 percent down days, we essentially have the same type of market conditions the Hindenburg Omen was designed to identify, warning a crash is very possible at any time, either in slow motion or in a flash. The S&P 500 hit a new low for 2010 on Tuesday.
The Head & Shoulders top patterns from November 2009 were confirmed Tuesday, increasing the probability their downside targets will be reached, suggesting stocks are headed sharply lower. We give those downside targets to our subscribers in Tuesday’s newsletter at http://www.technicalindicatorindex.com . But this decline will be just the first of what will be many down legs as markets head toward zero over the next 3 to 5 years.
Guess back to watching the grass grow. More exciting than watching paint dry.
http://www.watching-grass-grow.com/
Wow…now that’s exhilarating! Thanks for posting!
Idan….thoughts on GLD and SLV right now?
GLD still has the potential to reach my 125 target, the only place i get more bearish is below 119.70. SLV unfortunately is very very hard to read..
Thanks Idan!
Oil just sold off. Sold off as in dropped like 1% very quickly.
BP backtested the trend line, but didn’t break it
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BP&p=D&yr=10&mn=9&dy=0&id=p73189193719&a=202871730
I am covering my short and using half the profits to buy some $25 July and Oct Puts
Just be weary of that line, and you should be good. =) good luck!
looks like the next minimum bottom is 996 if we keep heading in the current pattern.
possible inverse h&s playing out on the 2 day. making the overall movement slow…
yeah but it had a descending resistnace line, so that doesn’t really work out well.
its also above a support trend line. trend line using the 1130s peak through the 1100 short term top, all the way down into today, we’re a little above it.
What are your trades? Let’s look at them live!
if 1041 can break, we could get another good drop.
if 1036 can break, we should get 1030.
let’s see if this plays out:
http://social.focalequity.com/photo/woo1month-289?context=user
1041.2 area is important short term.
this pig is gonna close right in here so either I sweat it out all nite!! Long SPY at 104.30.
Woo,
What will you be shorting if 1041 breaks?
already did. Good luck
oops. i shorted SPY. sorry read the question wrong.
august 103 puts.
Thanks
cmon big boys, bring this baby down a touch so I can lighten up…
thanks. Seems to be a very common theme, positions being dumped every afternoon @ 3 and then 3:30 (I hope).
Who was just on CNBC… What Fund and what were they talking about?
Twitter:
“zerohedge: Can one short the fund of the gentleman on CNBC? “
there’s the 1030 i was looking for.
if 1028 breaks, we’ll get a much fiercer fall.
didn’t break.
could retest 1036. i took my positions off around the 1030 break.
will look for a bit more dipping confirmation, or a backtest to offset some RSI for another SPY put position.
wow, jumped off a conf call to a pleasant downside surprise, thank you 3:30 robots. This cannot be good after 3% drops yesterday.
Going to sell 1/2 of faz position, hold 1/2
GLTA
i’ll probably be buying any decent rises in this current market, to grab SPY put positions.
tough market…to sell, to hold. …..
Idan please do a video on LVS on your after hours video, thanks!
sure
Guys, More than 100 times I TOLD YOU TO watch 1040 second by second. I TOLD YOU once it is broken we will head down significantly. Here you go as you saw just like ALWAYS I was 100% right. My portfolo is explding from profit and I do not now what to do with all these money. A VERY SPECIAL THANKS TO BIG BOYS THTA ARE WORKING HARD FOR US TO MAKE SUCH A PROFIT. nOW i HAVE TO TELL YOU GUYS THAT WE ARE APPROCHING TO spy 101. WHAT IS THIS NUMBER. VERY IMPORTANT NUMBER IT IS. THIS NUMBER IS 32% of retracment of the entire rally that we had from 2009. So We may get a 1 or 2 point fake aout break down toward 100 BUT we should expect a nice rally start from SPY 100. So be very carful being short at SPY 101.
SWBB
Thanks genuis. Big help you are. I’m going to make a Sam like prediction…the market will go up. When it does, I’m going to tell you all “I told you so”. Mark this post.
BTW, I’m about 60% short and leveraged, but I GUARANTEE, the market will go up (at some point). To me, 102.3 is a magic number. Why 102.3, cause it’s a decent radio station and I want to be like Sam and pull crap out my a-hole. If it drops below 102.3, you will likely get crappier music……..
Sam, this isn’t as much fun for me as you make it seem. You must be a miserable troll. GL with all your money, I’ve got lots of Monopoly money too.
I just wish Jihmbo was here to make mincemeat out of you.
<—– feels better, calmer
Idan or Woo,
I sold a couple more short positions for good profit, however I was going to sell my TZA for a very good profit in the final minute but the bell rang a second before my order went through, uggghhh! So I’m stuck holding TZA overnight. It closed at $8.18, what price would you guys think I should get out of it tomorrow?
I’m not charting TZA, but TNA closed below a long term trend line, and there’s a good chance we could gap lower into tomorrow, which would get a nice TZA rise. I wouldn’t want to see TNA back above $37
Woo,
Much appreciated. I think I’ll sell of TZA goes as much as 5 cents higher or lower tomorrow.
GTROD: Can’t you sell in the AH?
Thanks Idan for the live trading video! Hope the bears on the board made some money and took some off the table.
Only thing interesting thing to me right now is how /HG and /CL didn’t make a new low during the sell-off.
jdub,
Thanks for the reply. I’ve only been trading for just under 3 years and not sure how to arrange for after hours trading, or even if I should open up that can of worms. I’d really appreciate opinions from all you guys about that, what it involves, and if you guys are doing it, and suggest I do.
Thanks!!
GTROD: I think most brokers (even discount ones) allow for extended hours trading. Just choose “Extended”, “EXT”, “after hours”, “AH” or something like that on the order page. I use TOS and optionshouse. If you use either of those, I can help you out. You can always call up your broker (Assuming they don’t charge an extra fee) and have them do it for you. If you can do it by yourself, just make sure of the fees. I think there are some that have a different fee structure.
jdub,
Thanks for both responses. I trade through my bank’s online self guided trading system, no broker, 100 free trades. I’ll check into after hours right now. If I understand correctly, there’s only trading 15 minutes after the bell and before the bell, correct?
I have until 630 for my Thinkorswim account and 530(I think) on my optionshouse account. All times are ET. Those 15 mins after are for options of indices–SPY, DIA, XLB, etc. Oh and I assumed you have TZA shares. COz if you have options, then you’d have to wait until tomorrow when the market opens.
jdub,
Much appreciated my friend, and yes, I have TZA shares, no options holdings at the moment. I’ll check into it after hours now.
Thanks again for the insight, I really appreciate it!
My pleasure GTROD. Glad to be of some help. GL!
GTROD:
TZA–still has a good spread in the after hours and up 5 pennies. so if you want to take some off the table, you should go ahead and do so. i’m already seeing those million share purchases above closing price on the SPY in the AH which lead me to believe we could open higher tomorrow.
jdub,
I just checked and my bank doesn’t offer any after hours trading as of yet. They say they are looking into ti for next year.
Methinks maybe I should move a bunch of my money to scottrade or somewhere that does offer after hours trading. I’ll look into it immediately and let you know.
Thanks again for encouraging me to do so! Good luck, and I hope you make tons of money tomorrow!
Checkout thinkorswim and optionshouse as they offer better commission rates.
GL to you too. And hope everyone makes money tom.!
jdub,
Will do, thanks again my friend!
Oil pits close at 2:30… which is why it didn’t sell off
true…but how about /hg? I’m think it’s coz the $ didn’t really spike on the down move.
/hg ihas been sorta on it’s own for a while… it’s much stronger than the rest of the market for sure.. but it’s time will come too i think.
well, it’s actually been seen as a leading indicator for the markets. usually leads by a couple of days. FCX sold off and that practically follows /hg so closely. so unless it suddenly has lagged the equity markets, something doesn’t seem quite right.
maybe move down late in the day is more technical vs. fundamental?
Well there is still a massive H&S formation on copper… but this time it might be lagging the market here.
BTW. for real. I was much more comfortable being short (in faz) while people were looking for a rise in the market. I rode the roller coaster from red to green.
Now that everybody seems to be screaming for the short, I feel more nervous. Just my 2 cents. GLTA.
102.98 after hours Sam. TOLD YOU SO.
LOL!! He should be checking in very soon!
I don’t know who owns DNDN here. Tanking in the AH. anyone know why?
thanks Idan for the INTC chart