Here are our support levels after todays falling market:
- SPX 1040.78 – close 6/29/10 – 1,041.24
- COMPQ 2139.46 – close 6/29/10 – 2,135.18
- INDU 9757.55 – close 6/29/10 – 9,870.30
- TRAN 3983.18 then 3742.01 - close 6/29/10 – 4041.49
- UTIL 346.95 – close 6/29/10 – 360.32
I expect all but the 3742 of the TRAN average level will be broken tomorrow or very soon. Depending on the TRANs, I expect the markets to fall sharply to the 8,000 on the INDU. If The TRAN holds, then we will get one more bear rally before the bottom falls out.
Yields look terrible signaling a very weak economy, one sliding again or one that really never recovered. This is not a time to be in stocks. It is a time to be in Gold. Even Oil looks heavy. Watch the $67.15 level on WTIC.
I reiterate my stance on the $SPX that I’ve posted numerous times before…and so far have been on point. I predicted a fall to the 1035-1050 area for support on the 60 minute. Now, in the 60 minute chart you will see that a high probability will occur where we’ll see a rally back up to the 1100-1080 area to form a right shoulder on the 60 minute chart. We would also start filling some unfilled gaps. At that point, we’ll run into the 200/50 moving average convergance and fall back down completing a small head and shoulders in a large head and shoulders pattern.
We needed to come back down to this 1040 level in order for the 200 moving average to start flattening out and turn over. I think we priced in a very bad job reports this week and will see some surprises to the upside. I think we’ll see the 1040 level bust in mid-July after we get the right shoulder in the 60 minute chart.
I could be wrong though…we could plung tomorrow and continue the Wave 3 of 3…look out below!
In addition, I think the circuit breaker issue is a huge problem for the markets going forward- it’s going to mess with liquidity. It’s one of the reasons why I think we’ll have some future flash crashes.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38000924
I’m sorry ultrabear, I don’t see what you are seeing on a 60-minute chart, in fact I don’t see how you are going to get to 1100-1080 with the downsloping bearish trendline coming off the June 21st high. I think you would e better off looking at the big picture which is the H&S top that shows up on the weekly chart. A normal pull back of 50% yirlds a target of 942 and a 61.8% pull back yields 877.