Idan will be LIVE at 1PM EST:
2:30pm
Today we hit the 14.00 on the XLF (fell slightly below it) but did not manage to break. If we do break 14.00 we will go down to 13.50, but if we break that.. then the road down is very long to maybe as low as $11 in literally a few days-a few weeks. Here’s the daily:
1:00pm
Here’s my Daily chart of GOOG as it’s making new lows (like we predicted). Take a look at the 50% fib retracement, which i believe is a great buying opportunity (still far away though):
10:49am
Ebay opened and stayed today down below of it’s lowest level of support at 20.40.. it looks very bearish to me (unless it forms a bottoming candle), I think it might be a nice short:
10:32am
SPY now currently below the 104.65 neckline of the H&S formation… it’s still not collapsing yet, but we are below!
9:56am
H&S formation non the SPY is coming closer and closer to completion. We are less than 1% away from the neckline and the volume is starting to get much higher, with the VIX climing up above 30 and a lot of stocks are breaking down including the strong aapl. Here’s a daily of the SPY:
I highly recommend you guys take a look at this, it’s free too. Woo and I look at Elliott Wave Theory very frequently to get a better picture of what’s happening in the market.
Learn Basics of Elliott Wave Analysis — FREE
By Elliott Wave International
Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered the Wave Principle in the 1930s. Over the decades, his discovery was kept alive by a handful of individuals. A few of those, such as Bolton, Prechter and Frost, educated investors on how to use pattern analysis in financial markets. To help out Elliott Wave International’s readers in learning the basics of the method, we put together a free 10-lesson online tutorial. Here’s an excerpt. Read more.
12:01am
$POT or Potash is one of the first stocks that started its primary wave 3 of the bear market or so it seems. Here’s a great picture of the weekly chart. Notice also that the P2 wave was a 38.2% retracement of the P1 wave, and that I believe we are getting close to the end of the first subwave of P3 at around $88 for potash, before we get a small bounce. Here’s the weekly:
$SPY or S&P ETF could be in some big trouble tomorrow. After playing around in a triangle formation for a few days it has potentially broken downward and is below the critical 107.75 level. We can see the S&P potential reach that ever so important 1040 level very soon on any slight weakness in financials. Take a look at the 60 minute:
INTC still has some strength but it’s right at the border line, I think it’s still a buy as long as it’s above my red line, but if it breaks below (and on any weakness from the nasdaq it well) i think it’s a great shorting opportunity once it breaks that critical level of 19.85
Today’s Schedule
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET
Redbook 8:55 AM ET
***S&P Case-Shiller HPI 9:00 AM ET
***Consumer Confidence 10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index 10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET
Farm Prices 3:00 PM ET
Today’s Freebie
http://www.spoofee.com/index.php?section=deal&did=677877&ref=fe
Market looking pretty bad right now
DOW -1.14%
S&P -1.27%
NASDAQ -1.44%
A crack of 985 would lead me to believe P3 is in play; otherwise I will keep holding my short FAZ .
If you want to know why 985 is so important, view the most VIEWED photo on FE.
http://social.focalequity.com/photo/future-cycles?context=user&xg_source=shorten_twitter
Lastly, my positions are net long.. as I don’t know where the exact bottom will be, but I do want to be positioned bullish for when we do rally. I think it’s still a bit early for Daneric, etc, to be calling for a crack of S&P 700..
Zee – so you are expecting a fall to 985 then ?
Also, can you share an updated version of this ….
Thanks
Idan,
I have been sitting on the same POT chart for the past couple of weeks as well. What do you think is the best way to play POT now? jump into the short side with a stop or wait for a bounce? if the overall market moves strongly lower, I think POT might stop at 84 instead of 88.
I think you should wait for the bounce first, you’ll get one very soon.. it should be 2-3 days of bounces, and then potentially go short. the POT chart has not changed… and it looks awful.
The S&P H&S could break today, so be careful going long POT, I’d wait for a good retracement (fib) to go short on.
What is everyones opinion on what the next stop would be on S&P if we broke the 1040 level
There will be support at a 38.2% retracement of the rally, which is 1008 on SPX. and 950 will be some support as well.
Thanks for the comments on POT.
You’ve been right on it for a month or so, it has broken down hard.
It seems like a leading indicator for the general market.
I went long last week a little early playing the bounce.
I agree 88 or so will hold for now, I may buy more at that point.
Of course it may hit the low 80s.
I took off my stop which in retrospect was stupid, but I do think this will bounce nicely.
That being said, if that’s what I think this is definitely going down to 50, lol.
Yeah, i’m worried about that stock quite a lot, 88 some support, but i’m guessing that will eventually break too and form new lows.
For buying opportunities, i would stick to stronger stocks like AAPL… although there aren’t many of them anymore.
are we looking towards 1050 to hold? if not we go to 1040, and imo it won’t hold
1051 held for now. Might take a small long position in Teck.
Just as I was going to key the order the market pluged. I think we should hit 1044-1040.
SPY hit a low of 104.65, exactly the same as the low of the day on June, 8th.
104.38 was the low on May,25.
104.58 was the low on Feb, 5.
Below these areas 103 is the next minor resistance.
Yup.. today at 104.27, means we are at a new low, however that was close enough to the other lows to be considered a “double bottom ” formation.. unless we hit it again and see volume pick up.
here comes 1040.
1042 and bounced.
took an L on my 200 SSO position, bummer But I will live to fight another day
Yeah… it was tough… i would not have bought SSO into yesterday’s close.. it looked too bearish for me, but today at 104.65.. it was worth a shot… that said, if it goes back below 104.95.. i’d watch out.
God morning eveybody,
Your bearish swing trader here early today, but just for a minute, gotta run until about 3pm Eastern time.
Excellent day so far for us bears. I’ve taken 1/3 of my positions off the table today for some pretty good profits. I’ll most likely let the rest (all short) ride for the rest of the week. Got a feeling we might just break 1040 late in the day. I’m kind of worried about a bounce tomorrow, but believe that will be wiped out by more downward action the rest of the week, so I’ll hold most likely.
Still down more than 10% on my FXP, so hoping China tanks badly again tonight, and I believe they will.
Good luck to everybody, see you in 4 hours or so.
Meant to say ‘Good morning” NOT “God morning” oh well:)
Bought SPY @ 104.67
Bought FAZ @ 16.45
Bought FXE @ 121.31
Strange trade, I know.
The market was just moving, I wanted to buy something to get in on the action.
Stopped out of SPY @ 104.77 (+0.10)
Stopped out of FAZ @ 16.31 (-0.14)
I can’t believe SPY is at $105.19 now. JERKS!
Wow UNG tanked bigtime I wonder if I should wait a little longer to buy some or just pick a bit up? What you thinki Idan?
I don’t like UNG at this level…i need it back above 7.85-7.90 for me to be a bull on it again.
Bought some Teck Resources calls for Aug.
what’s the symbol for that?
TCK.B.TO
JPM break of 37.02, will cause massive selling in financials. JPM doesn’t have too much support anymore, and if it breaks 37.02, it is likely to fall to 35, and 31.59 for support… big big drop.
Is it worth messing with UNG IDan or just wait?
Wait… don’t get into it now.. cuz the market is pulling it down.
What are you thinking for entry maybe 7.40?
To tell you the truth, i want to be buying it at 7.90 again… the fact that it’s back below 7.90 makes me nervous, and i don’t want to hold a stock that can fall to new lows… if UNG starts rallying when SPY breakdown, and UNG breaks 7.90 to the upside again, i’ll buy it.
I don’t want to buy it unless its up there again.
There is a potential H&S breakdown with a tgt of 7- 7.05 … be careful …
Anyone messing with Tesla Motors IPO? I am thinking of shorting it, currently at 18.1
What’s the symbol on that?
TSLA
It’s too risky for me to play a stock that just IPOed.. but on the 1 minute it looks like it broke a support that held for 20 minutes.
up 3.50 since I posted about it… currently at 21.5
JPM just broke the 37.02 level? Anyone going short here?
JPM broke down, but saved itself straight away… tough trading market.. now if it breaks back above 37.35, i’m a buyer on an inverse H&S formation.
Shorted SPY @ 104.55. Hoping for that break down since we are under 104.6
bahumbug… stopped out @ 104.7 (-0.15)
Not feeling it for the day…. Going to take a break and actually go do some regular work
Watch the $104.50 level. Should this break and confirm, the target on the SPY is $99.50 – $100.00. The W-V pattern on the daily has been negated
Anyone liking TLAB here ???
On Monday, President Obama backed plans by regulators to nearly double the spectrum available for wireless devices, paving the path to opportunity for wireless providers, wireless infrastructure companies, and other technology giants.
More specifically, in the President’s memorandum, he ordered federal agencies to identify and free up nearly 500 megahertz of spectrum controlled by the government of private entities, primarily for mobile broadband use, to answer the uptick in consumer demand for laptop computers and smartphones. Of the 500 megahertz Obama wants to make available, 220 megahertz, or 44% is controlled by federal agencies such as NASA, the Federal Aviation Administration, and the military, which use it for various kinds of communications systems.
Although the spectrum proposal mirrors a plan unveiled by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) earlier this year, the Obama’s endorsement will likely bolster the FCC’s proposal and could play a significant role in finalizing the proposal.
If holders of spectrum give up their current positions and support both the President and the FCC, the following exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are likely to feel the benefits:
Broadband HOLDRs (BDH), which boasts digital wireless communications giant Qualcomm (QCOM) and wireless infrastructure companies Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) and Tellabs Inc. (TLAB) in its top holdings. BDH closed at $10.42 on Monday.
C was halted
why
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/citigroup-shares-briefly-halted-after-15-drop-2010-06-29?siteid=yhoof2
Shares of Citigroup Inc dropped 15% to $3.32 Tuesday before being halted at 1:04 p.m. Eastern Time on the New York Stock Exchange. Shares, which are trading down about 6% at $3.77, resumed trading at 1:09 p.m., returning to levels seen before the 15% drop
What would be a good level to play FAZ…From here ???? Wait for a break on the XLF of $14.00 ???
I think XLF below 14, is a great entry point for FAZ seeing that we already broken 16 and that was my best entry point earlier today.
we got the minimum 1060 hit, and then a break lower.
current 20 year chart zoomed:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p22134911478&a=184607634
Hitting the long term support again.
Let me know what trades you all are making! I want to look at all the stocks too!
looking at INTC
Idan – I was holding TZA Aug 8 calls – got out this am at IWM 62.25 – though I expected gap at 61.93 to fill – which it did ….
There is positive divergence on IWM on the 10 min – so not entering anything … but watching …
SPX is sticking around 1041 area a little too long. I may take some puts on XLF just to hedge my bets.
Idan:
Just curious, when you looked at FAZ a few minutes ago, you also look at XLF. I always thought you needed to look at something like the $RIFIN to get a better sense which way the financials are moving. Any thoughts? Thanks so much.
Yeah $RFIN is more correlated to FAZ… but a confirmed break of XLF 14.00 on the 10 minute would have provided the same result on the $RIFIN.X at 740.
$RIFIN has more REITS in it than XLF.
maybe a dumb trade but i took 300 tbt long 36,15
no stop, will sell when trendline breaks or i get scared.
Long X, DE, DIS, UAUA, TBT. Obviously thinking the 1040 area holds or I’ll be eating into a lot of profits from straddles on BP.
Where are your stops on those trades, and what were your entry points?
Busy trading, have not entered stops yet. Entry points X 39.4, DE 55.2, UAUA 20, TBT 36.1, DIS 32.57
Idan what about OPK…Alot of insider buying as of late ????
Above 2.4 is a great entry point, and as long as it stays above 2.2 it’s a buy.
Hi, Idan
what about AIG? I load some @40 call. For form 15-m chart, it is oversold. But I feel bad after loading AIG call, it seems no clue to rebound.
$34 is the stronger support rather than 34.50… i rather buy calls at 34.. but if you really want to, buy some now, and buy some at 34 again.
Maybe the plunge protection team coming to save the market going iinto the 4th of July weekend
I don’t think they’ll let this market plunge too badly before mid term elections in November.
VZ news IPhone coming in January
Perfect, that explains why VZ went up and RIMM shot down at the same time.
Broke 1040
More than 100 times I TOLD YOU that we will see a quick stop at 1070 and then drop to 1040 would happen. JUST LIKE ALWAYS everything happned EXACTLY as I TOLD YOU. Now watch 1040 second by second. (At 1070 I told you to watch minutes by minutes, now I am telling second by second). DO not blink. Market HAS STO GO TO 1000 and then I am going to go long at 1000~1110.
SWBB
Debating whether to lighten up on my FAZ. I have more of a longer term outlook than some here (days, not hours). Anybody else holding short overnight? I don’t see much of a reason to sell, but anythng is possible. A european stimulus, etc could muck things up short term.
Any thoughts / people in the same position. Holding 1500 shs.
I would take some profits off the table …
thanks…but look at Idan’s chart at the top….I am not a technical guy, but that’s a nasty looking XLF chart. I’m sticking with my gut for a little bit…… I’m sure if someting propels this market up, it will allow me to sell lower. And if I can get one nice pop….mmmmmmmmm
Robert_Tax_CPA,
Looks like we’re on the exact same page so to speak. I’m wondering what to do as well. I’m a swing trader, but sick of getting whipsawed to death on my shorts for the past 2 months.
I’m thinking we go down much further from here, but may see a bounce tomorrow. I’ve taken close to half my positions off the table today, and tempted to take more, but just not sure.
for what it’s worth, I messed up and didnt sell FAZ on the last pop about a week or two ago. Held for over a week, dripped down to 4k + loss, currently still down, but less than $100 (on 1500 shares) (NOTE: now up $100 as of submitting comment). I have faith in at least one more lower low, so I am ok with holding …even with the decay.
We keep hitting lower highs, lower lows, etc. Trend is my friend.
Big boys seem to be dumping.
I could see a small bounce following the adp # is out…but think unless unemployment on fri is a complete surprise we head down….the other thing that may stop the sell off may be chinas #’s on wed night…if it looks like they are slowing constructively we may rally into earnings
When we get a major distribution we usually get an accumulation day after. I’d ensure that there is some cash so when the market back tests tomorrow I can short more, if it makes sense at that time. 78% chance of an up swing tomorrow.
Just sold all my FAZ at $17.00 for a nice profit. Wishing I hadn’t sold 1/3 of my short portfolio 4 hours ago, but what can you do.
Thinking about selling more of my shorts as I’m worried about a bounce tomorrow. What would you guys suggest?
I plan on holding my FAZ. I don’t see as much upside as downside.
***to clarify….I don’t see as much upside IN THE MARKET as downside IN THE MARKET.
Gotcha, makes sense to me my friend.
Any view on how far oil can drop. I am invested in USO and waiting for it to recover.
Hey Guys,
I’m short oil using SCO and up about 1%..finally. You think I should dump or hold it. Let me know ASAP.
Okay, looks like I’m holding my SCO. Probably a mistake but I think we’ll see $70 oil soon so maybe I’ll do okay.
BP has some positive divergence.
Watch this 5 year trend line:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BP&p=D&yr=10&mn=9&dy=0&id=p73189193719&a=202871730
If we get back above it, then I think it’s a good opportunity to try a long position with stops under that trend line. If for any reason the trend line IS regained, don’t risk it breaking. I also wouldn’t take any long positions until that trend line is gained back. Too risky because BP can drop huge amounts more if you’re not careful since there aren’t many supports down here.
Watch for AAPL above 260. that will give some bullish confirmation for a good solid long position above the long term trend line.
With iphone heading over to verizon next year it will probably result in a huge boost in sales. either way aapl is a solid stock, but the confirmation 260 will be helpful chart wise. Have a minimum 284 target on aapl.
Woo/BP: This is probably what’s keeping it afloat:
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/06/29/retail-investors-diving-into-bp-shares/
Interesting that $NYA, $RUT, $DJT and $SOX did not breach June 8th lows at any point today.
yeah. BP isn’t going to go bankrupt for sure. Not surprising that investors are looking for opportunities.
market didn’t completely collapse either like you mentioned. still a possibility of a bounce, but the drop is looking a lot more likely especially with the long term spx 20 year trend line breaking.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77679443269&a=184607634
These idiot longs don’t realize that these companies are overvalued anyways. Look at EXXON.
It’s not underperfoming the Dow by over 20% for no reason.
Well they’re not idiots actually… wall sts. doing a damn good job of fooling of everyone
yeah even a while back, oil was ridiculously manipulated even with very high supply and low demand, shooting up to ridiculous numbers.
i don’t really care either way. People can buy on whatever reason they decide as long as the 5 year trend line holds haha.
More than 100 times I TOLD YOU that we will see a quick stop at 1070 and then drop to 1040 would happen. JUST LIKE ALWAYS everything happned EXACTLY as I TOLD YOU. Now watch 1040 second by second. (At 1070 I told you to watch minutes by minutes, now I am telling second by second). DO not blink. Market HAS STO GO TO 1000 and then I am going to go long at 1000~1110.
SWBB
AMAZING COMMENTARY SAM! LOL!!
Any thoughts on TSLA?!
Right on SPY, WRONG on UAUA and BBBY. You’ve had good calls but lately 50/50 doesn’t support ITYS.
yeah…a lot of people were calling for a possible drop (good job everyone).
bbby is down around 10% since sam recommended and said to keep holding.
UAUA even more which he also had a longer term bullish stance on.
but i’m assuming he sold at the right moments, and actually took a short position somewhere on both of those without telling anyone?
UAUA needs to get above 22.70 to be bullish again.
of course he did Woo. SWBB!!! BB never tell anyone what they do!
Woo, in my last statemnt I STRONGLY said that UAUA has to break above 22.5 to go up. I did not happen. When UAUA was above 22 Idan gave us this number and I also said that I am looking at 22.5. I usually supports my long by SPY puts. I made 300% on my SPY puts just today.
SWBB
boring.
Hey guys, zee here, no coincidence, this market has got me by surprise (even though I threw a target of 985 a while back).
Now I’m 100% sure the bottom is comming.
As SAM says, the market HAS to go to 1,000.
EVERYONE WILL BE FOOLED IN THE PROCESS.
From that point on, there’s so many possibilities to fool everyone.
-Rally to 1050 then drop back down to 970 then rally back up to 1300.
-Drop to 965, rally to 1000, drop to 945, rally to 1300.
At a certain point, the fooling will stop and P3 will become real if the selling continues at this pace… this point is a 2-month close below 985. Harsh signal. And will lead to a double dip.
I’m still a bull guys.
Holding my short FAZ tightly.
I really hope Woo/Idan allows this link, its’ just to prove the date of my post 2 months ago:
http://abcsofgas.blogspot.com/2010/04/warning.html
”warning: The $CPCE is showing way too much bullishness to the extent where I think a 500-2500 point correction is almost for certain but like always, this rally will overextent to Dow 12250-12500
Back in 2007, fund managers got to finally sell ‘even’ at 1500 on the S&P… Fast forward to 2008.. you had the lehman liquidation at 1250 on the S&P where fund managers couldn’t exit in time. You know what will happen at 1250. MASSIVE LIQUIDATION. We may overextend to 1270-1290 but it’s a 100% short. At 1270 EVERYBODY IS GOING TO BE LONG. IT’S GOING TO BE SCARY. I am just preparing you guys for the big crash.. It’s coming.. 5-15% more upside to go AND THEN BAM. If we don’t crash, we are in a new secular bull market and we are going to 20,000 on the DOW. That simple.
http://img248.imageshack.us/i/warningn.png/
I uploaded this image on april 9th, before the flash crash…
-zee
thanks zee =)
“EVERYONE WILL BE FOOLED IN THE PROCESS.”
Indeed.
This drop reminds me of 2008.
I know your statement “I’m 100% sure the bottom is comming” is true. It’s 1000% true.
Why? I am the perfect contrarian indicator. Me going long POT.TO on Thursday was the tip-off.
I have a weird gift, lol.
I’m thinking of going long VXX.TO tomorrow, that is your clue we are going to bounce.
When I sell it we drop.
Sigh. Some things never change.