Woo:
GLD
This is why I am bullish on Gold. I’ve been using this chart and my GDX chart in the FE Leveraged ETF Pro section to make a good amount of money. It’s a pretty chart and solid bullish movement. I’ve had this GLD $125 minimum projection for over a month now.
Idan:
12:44pm
$Ebay daily is hitting up against 22$ which use to be both support and resistance many many times. This time it’s going to act as support. You can either buy it at $22 here again, or wait for a break of $22 and go short. The $22 level though is so incredibly important that my longer term views of the stock are dependent on whether or not this $22 level holds, Here’s the daily:
12:37pm
I am still long a lot of shares of $UNG, and like i’ve mentioned before, i’m taking this longer term… I bought it on a retest of $7.92 and it has definitely formed a bottom, i think it could be moving to the teens very soon.
12:35pm
The $SPY will HAVE to break the 110.80 mark before you can get at all bearish. As off now it just looks like the 112.30-112.50 levels are forming resistance but there is still no strong downside. It can bounce from it’s 200 SMA daily and rally some more.
2:17am
$GS could either be breaking out finally or setting up to plummit, it’s 38.2% retracement is a very important level and if it gets back up above it, i think it could rally quite substantially. The real level to watch is 138. You can play either side of the trade, short or long. Just make sure you have a tight stop:
Morning Woo
I’m probably going to jinx myself because each time I speak about a particular issue on this board it always moves against me that day. I don’t see how you and Sam are positive on UAUA or any of the airlines here. From what I see on the charts I see negative divergence and from candlesticks yesterday could have been a turning point. I’m short. What is it with the charts that has you positive on UAUA specifically. Does the negative divergence mean nothing. Are you more riding this wave which I don’t trust with a large merger with CAL in the background. LCC is being pumped as well.
Sam, you’ve had great calls in the past however I think you’re riding momentum and not fundamentals. You’re well tied in to some force able to move markets in desired directions….GS/JPM. Nothing wrong there but I really got to wonder about being long UAUA and short SPY.
I currently don’t have any UAUA positions. I played the break out and the move towards new highs.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UAUA&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05197197960&a=192491148
The stock is still bullish long term though as long as we’re above $122.
Posted on 06/17/10 at 9:51am by Michael J. Zerinskas TheStreet.com RealMoney contributor, Doug Kass, just posted on Twitter that he is getting short the ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND (NYSE: IWM) over $67.00. This suggests that the Seabreeze Partners General Partner believes that the rally the market has experienced this week is false and that next week may bring selling.
still waiting to buy Agu/Pot…one of the two.
the market will be lower next week so i may pick them up then.
i wonder if they can get this thing under 1100 today?
if not a lot of dealers are going to cheesed.
don’t think they will. looks like consolidation for the next push up.
I would not wonder if today is a new attempt for a move down to below 1100. I am still in the bull camp, but there are some indicators looking for some weakness before much higher prices. I do not see any reason, maybe OPEX is a catalyst.
Today i am not trading, but I do have still some longs with stops below 1108.
I did some number crunching yesterday and I have finally discovered Woo’s 1235 target. I have to say that this new discovery is very intriguing. Coupled with the fact that prior to the all time top in ths stock market, there were negative divergences on the weekly and monthly charts, makes me think: yes we have negative divergence on the weekly, but not the monthly, so I am looking for that. In addition, the time ratio plus my timing system points to late July/early August top.
my short term target is 1133….today or Monday. To turn negative we will need much more time.
My #1 turning point is August 23rd.
My target is 1141 by Monday, but it could be truncated near the top, so 1135 is where I will remove all my calls except for the short protection.
August 23 sounds a bit too far, but I am open to it. My biggest down pointer resides in the Fall.
Yes in fall there is the biggest risk. My time point is from October 8 th on……very dangerous !!!
Let see how markets look like when we are near our time cycle turning points !
Hope you are still around at that board when we approach the critical times. Good luck trading !
I have to say I do not expect the 2009 low seen this fall.
But in 2011 we will get down to the low around 600 in SPX.
After running those numbers yesterday, I think I agree with you on that we won’t see the March 2009 lows this year, but I have us going much lower than 600 in the next three years.
Thoughts anyone on FNM or FRE? Are they worth taking a shot at for a bounce or will they keep on going down to possibly the teens? Thanks in advance.
nah these two are just so screwed in general..i don’t like touching them at all.
Thanks Idan I have the same gut feeling.
In Option expire day, market often show V shapes: move down than up, or move up then down. I do see some L formed.
you’ll see the volatility after the US game and much more during the final hour…triple witching today!
Looks like the global PPT want Europe to close flat and the perhaps take the US higher later.
how big of a joke are these euro bank stress tests…can they really post anything but saying everything AOK?
i don’t think they will be AOK.
that’s why gold is moving up…someone knows something.
I agree that things can’t be AOK…but word out of Spain is indicating they past the test…and I can’t see how they can report anything otherwise…yes, gold and the bond markets are saying something else…but my point is why even go through a test if they aren’t going to be legit
The stress tests are a joke, they don’t really do much. We saw all the banks pass in the USA, and then we hear about how the banks are screwing up again 8 months later.
i know, that’s why it’s funny.
they say all is fine…meanwhile the money talks.
My Bullish Gold recommendation is playing out nicely. GLD got the long term breakout of the ascending trend line and wedge. GDX broke out into a new channel. =)
nicely done.
Woo, what was the target you said the SPX should ideally top out? Was it 1235?
1230s is the initial point, but there’s a potential for the market to head towards very low 1300s.
However, a move towards 1230 isn’t required, since we’ve already met retrace requirements and people are having a heck of a time getting a decent long term P2 count.
I still think it’s more likely that we have seen the top for 2010, but just out of curiosity I ran the numbers last night and I have 1230 – 1240 being one possibility.
My hedging plan will be: at 1130 – 1135, get out of hedging calls, let the short shares run into 200 day SMA next week, and re-hedge (half of the amount of calls that I held during the run-up from 1044) and out of those hedge at 1164 (if we get there). I’ll be okay with a run-up to 1240, because I’ll then dump the short protection right there.
If things work out as planned, I think I’ll be living on a farm land before EOY.
Yeah, I have no qualms with tops already being in for the year. And I agree with your trading scheme. I’ll probably be following something very similar, while watching for the possibility of further rises/drops along the way. There’s no way of knowing more until we get more market movement to confirm or deny specific tops and bottoms.
What’s your time frame on 1230-1240?
If we do rise to 1230s or even low 1300s, there is the potential for this being an extremely aggressive rise.
August 14 2010 if it should get there. No one should hold longs past that date.
There is a long term SPX trend line that hits near 1306 around that date….
wouldn’t that be a crazy 2 months…
just speculation for fun.
you guys aren’t expecting decent earnings? I could see the market getting a nice boost on the banks when they report and then as we get deeper into reports, I bet they all are decent, but the outlooks are going to be toned down…depend o what happens here with the end of the quarter…I could see a nice run up through the end of June with a mild but decent pulback on the monthly unemployment # and gdp….only to rally again into earnings…looks like spx may be setting up for an inverse h&s
BP or $BP has a very nice triangle formation on the 60 minute, if it breaks above $32.70 i’m a buyer, i think this stock is very undervalued and while i’m not sure what the effects the spill have on one time fees for the company, i’m sure it’s not enough to take the company 50% down.
are you sure about this trade?
i wouldn’t touch this thing with a 10 foot pole.
ignore the charts, they are irrelevant in this case.
One of the things bothering me with BP are the lawsuits that have been filed. As of yesterday there are 51,000 suits filed! That is enormous and we have no idea what the amounts are for each one! This one scares me a bit and I would not be surprised that it can be bought in the mid 20′s and if that occurs I will be a buyer.
one of the bigger things in my opinion is going to be obama. no matter what happens, in situations like this, companies like BP always end up paying for damages. They have to for the sake of saving face and they probably have loads of insurance and money set aside for things like this. the problem comes in when you have obama using this situation to force his own agenda in regards to stopping offshore drilling and making BP dish out even more money than just what they would be paying for restitution and lawsuits. I will be staying away from BP for a while.
Not to mention the number of other players that are being taken down with BP that have very good business models and similar charts…The Prez could lift the joke moratorium and BP could still fall….But the rest of the stocks will rally huge….
yeah. i heard that people are boycotting gas stations. except most of the gas stations are owned by individual business owners and were sold by BP over the last few years. the amount BP makes off of gas stations is like nothing haha. sucks for those mom and pop gas station owners.
this is affecting a wide array of people, and there are definitely going to be a ton of opportunities to make money, if you look in the right places.
yeah but BP has so much money, it’s ridiculous. BP is planning to raise less money than once predicted simply because it’s seeing that the “damages” and law suits won’t amount to as much. We all know that buying BP is a very risky trade, but i think you gotta keep playing the charts with a stop.
i agree. BP will not go bankrupt. they have money, money, and more money. If you can find the right spot, this is a gold mine (or an afghanistan mineral deposit).
Maybe I’ll start charting BP for fun…haha. Then I’ll find that this crisis fits with EW rules, and we’ll talk conspiracy theory hahahaha. j/k
You must ask yourselves if Obama would be disappointed if he single-handedly shut down the offshore drilling biz… I hear the helicopters circling now….
This is how I played BP as a long term play.
2 contracts: Bought Jan 2012 37.5 C for 3.65
1 contract: Sold Jan 2011 29 C 8.00
1 contract: Sold July 37 C for 1.42
For $215, I’m protected to the downside should it go belly up (which I don’t think it would). However, I think with all the lawsuits, there will be an upside ceiling for this. That’s where selling those calls month in and month out for 18 months come in. So I spent $215 but I’m in a position to sell anywhere from $100 to $200 each month for 18 months. I should have placed more than 1 of these spreads on.
You might not get that play for the same amount now that IV has come in significantly and BP has gone up since I placed that trade on.
I did a similar strategy with RIG and that’s paying off right now.
market looks REALLY good for a move to 1135.
However, the shorter term fibs towards there are 1117.7, 1121.17 (where our HOD was conveniently), and 1124 (the previous area that I said we needed to break out of a few days ago).
This may be a rough rise since the 1122 area is the long term P1 50% retrace. My SPY options decayed a lot overnight due to the slow movement and low volatility of the current market. At times like these I make more money off ETFs and stock than I do from options, even though I got into my SPY options while the market was around 1111 lol.
Hey, you aren’t the only one. I am completely okay with it, as I grabbed June calls and was completely prepared for it. That merciless run-up since 1044 has banked me many coins that I can afford to throw some at this fire. I do, however, have July calls that are getting hammered a bit, but what the heck. I grabbed calls on stocks that are about to break out anyways just like what I did at 1044. They’ll be quick and merciless, too.
Yeah. sometimes it’s just worth the risk haha. Good ol’ options.
Woo – options have been killed due to the drop in the vix …
yup. double edged sword.
Fritz – what stocks / calls are you looking at right now ?
MMs please go for that finish line at 1128 today
careful. if the whole site gets too bullish, the MMs will read it and take everything the other way… because yes…this website is that important to the stock market as a whole. haha =)
Darn that sucker AXP again. It either leads the DJIA too much or it seriously lags it. Now it seems to be lagging behind. If it doesn’t respond to the magnet at $43.25 today, I think it will finally respond to it on Monday.
That huge block sell this morning on AXP may have done it to set its closing price between $41.60 and $42. 2 million shares traded in the opening minutes.
GLD chart up top for those that are interested.
Will probably not get it today but looking at KBH. Breaking 12 would probably its chart look like TOL after it broke 18.
I wouldn’t touch KBH with a ten foot pole! Here is why it is going down:http://www.thestreet.com/story/10787562/1/gilman-and-pastor-llp-is-investigating-kb-home-and-other-companies-for-fraud.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEFI
i’m looking for a crack of 12 so i can short it
come on 1124….
With Idan on UNG but playing it with options:
Jan. 2011
Buy 6/8 call spread for 1.03
Selling 7 P for .53
Worse case scenario is I’m in at 6.50. 52 wk low is at 6.72
Best case scenario, I earn $1.50 per spread.
Woo,
Can you take a look at ICE? Just trying to get my feet wet on technicals, but this chart looks bullish to this newbie. Looks to be retesting the neckline after the breakout. Yes?
Yeah. Looks like this is headed to $137 short term. If it can get above the $140 61% retrace, we will see $147.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ICE&p=D&yr=2&mn=10&dy=0&id=p42815555209&a=202714993
I would for a break of the long term trend line which is north of $127 or so. That is the safer long position.
* I would wait for a break …
Thanks Woo!!!! I’m in 500 shares at $121.50.
Darn that sucker AXP just doesn’t want to move in time! I was prepared to let those JUNE 42 calls expire worthless, but the darn sucker moved right to $42 and forced me to dump them at a loss for fears that they will automatically cover my AXP short shares (short shares I actually want to keep). AArrgghh…
Woo, thanks for the comments on UAUA from the beginning of the day. Was a very good day here, one of the least volatile for triple witching I can remember. Short UAUA and DIS going into next week and 90% cash.
Idan
do you like nat gas better than oil long? ung vs uco? looks like ung has found nice support at 8.50…where do you see it running to in the next couple of weeks? next resistance to watch?
thanks for any input
I like NG better than oil becuase NG has been hit so badly, and it’s finally formed a bottom… UNG has a lot of resistances especially around the round figures of 10, 11. But it’s still too early to see where UNG will find resistances and support, for right now i’m just keeping a really wide stop loss for the ETF and letting it run a little more and see where it pulls back.