2:16pm
USO short might be worth taking right now as we are hitting today the 35.50 retest of what once use to be support (now as resistance).
2:02pm
$GLD daily will most likely reach my target of 125-126 in the next few days or so as it’s hitting a triple top today. The thing to notice about gold is that it is in no way correlated to any type of market right now. It went up when the dollar went up, it went down when the dollar went up. This is very characteristic of a bubble formation. My target might not be the highest price, but i do expect some pull back from there. If it breaks through i’ll look at other targets:
1:49pm
This morning we hit/opened on the $SPY at my line around 112.30, this could have been the top, assuming we end close to the lows today and potentially break the 111 support (former resistance). However, it is also very possible that we bounce back up and break 112.30 to test 115 for a symmetrical H&S formation. Here’s the daily resistance and support levels that i’m looking at:
When everyone else is bearish, you have to be bullish. I’m guessing that the EU bank results will come out good and send us to double top territory. I’m predicting a top at 1200 to fill the gap and run into big red again…the look out below! This would be a similar setup to 2007 top. That way all the moving averages can realign and send us down to the floor.
Smart Money Video Update: 6/16/2010
It’s almost time to sell…and some weird action on the NYSE.
Here’s the video lonk from Dan Murphy
http://www.milliondollartarget.com/flash/2010/June162010_free/June162010_free.html
Very nice commentary yesterday. I’m personally out of the markets since I’m travelling & on vacation. Here’s a very nice instructional video on scalling in & out of trades. GL
http://www.stocktwits.tv/charts-gone-wild-with-john-lee-061510/
It’s starting to remind me of July 2009. I think my target of 1170 has a good chance of being reached before the month is over. I’m very glad that I didn’t ignore the massive positive divergence on June 8.
most of the time when markets turn to upside they do not come back to the levels the late bulls wonna have to get into the market.
so they have to buy at higher levels !!
I am still in the bull camp and target 1220 and higher is possible by late Aug, before major down move will start.
Any pullback to around 1100-1105 is good entry point. Maybe there is a chance after OPEX from 1133 down to 1105.
It’s entirely possible. People say that time cycles don’t work all that well, but I disagree. My method is more time based rather than price based. I had my long hedges aggressively auto-filled at 1044 knowing that it will hurt bears very badly with this upswing, but even I was surprised how hard the bears have taken it in the crotch. I’m a bull until mid-July currently.
there is a cycle turning point at July 14 th….let see how it works !
For some reason I think we will never reach those high levels as you guys are predicting. I strongly believe that there is more to the BP spill, as to how it occurred. I would like to say it was a terrorist inflicted but then again i know everyone would say “oh no,NEVER” but hey why aren’t they talking about how it happened and why they haven’t been able to contain the spill in anyway. Also, I beleive that Bp cant contain the spill as if they cap it, the oil will start coming out of the sea floor since the shell maybe broken.
Anyway I’m doing things a bit different for now to the years end. I’m starting to accumulate TZA and DRV on any up trends and plan to add to the position very aggressively. Today so far bot 10k TZA at $6.30 and bot 10k DRV at$ 6.10.
GL everyone
Wouldn’t the decay in TZA & DRV kill you over time? I did not think those leverage ETF’s are design for long term holds.
True but I would not hesitate to get out of them if they rise and Im capable of trading out of it with some nice profits , however i have my stoplosses in place as well.
I just think that this whole markets manipulation is just a way for the fed to stop people from panicking and once that starts I think there will be a huge downside potential.
I think we back test to 1080 then run to 1150 – 1170..
That (miniature drop) might have been all the bears are going to get. Retails are buying more puts than calls. July 2009 repeat.
So Fritz, when do you start to short the market again? End of July?
I’m not. I already hold long term short shares. I only had long hedges auto-bought at 1044 and auto-sold at 1117 yesterday. Long hedges are entered at 1106 (albeit in smaller amounts than at 1044). More long hedges will be auto-filled at 1090.
I think we go a little lower fritz maybe to 110.85 on the SPY JMO..
That’s okay, and it still won’t do any damage to the 1170 target.
IMO guys if we hit my target of 1085 on the S&P and we get the reversal candle i am going to load the boat to the long side and i am going to play tech.Look at the dollar and the Euro plust the banks are holding up..I see a buying oppotunity in the short term at least if we hold that 1080 level…
Market has to drop s&p 1080~1085 befor resuming its rally if they want rally. At 1080~1090 we will find out if big boys want to continue this rally or they want to test 1045 again. we will follow big boys. Since this is my first post after a while I could not say I TOLD YOU, so get ready for another series of I TOLD YOU in coming days.
SWBB (Stick with big boys)
LOL
Hey Sam welcome back
bot 10k more TZA at $6.42
raising my stop to $6.50
In DZZ at $10.65 with a stop just below $10.50. Easy trade with very little risk and a big potential reward over the next few months.
Signs are that the currencies will hold and Inflation is nowhere near a threat. Joblessness is up, Interest rates are down.
The GLD and DZZ charts show ascending and descending wedges on the daily/weekly charts, and I expect them to both break in the coming days/week.
Who’s in this trade with me?? Anyone shorting Gold?
lol , not me.
I’m up 5% in a few days going long.
thinking about selling right now though.
=)
We hit my short term target, you might want to consider looking for a place around this $53 area to take off about half because we’re running into a trend line soon too.
but if we break north of this trend line, gold is going to go crazy.
Covered DE 58.55. Covered 1/2 of UAUA 23.64.
—- PWER —- Looking to take a short term long on this one any thoughts ????
out od TZA so far with $.14 on 20K shares will buy again today if I get a chance to buy lower
Idan or Woo or fritz and Optic
I value your opinions very much and appreciate the time you guys have all spent on answering my q’s or just giving me advice on the trades I do.
I was wondering if you guys could look into this small company that i’m very much interested in and believe that they will have a great future if just a couple of things go right for them.Would it be too much to ask you guys to give me your opinion on it please. The name of the company is worldgate comm and the symbols are WGAT.OB. Thank you all in advance..
I’m not too good on penny stocks… when dealing with penny stocks the fundamentals are so important and i don’t know anything about them. With technicals, i can only say i want to be buying it above 0.65.
Any one looking for potential turning point (assuming this is Minor 2 of Intermediate 1 of Primary 3) don’t short until VIX 21. If my observation is correct, VIX will be at 14.5 by the end of Intermediate 2. If we’re in Primary 3, Minor 3 of Intermediate 3 of Primary 3 should result in 100+ VIX.
As you know me, I am a big fan of UAUA. I think UAUA is very BULLISHHHHHHH. My strategy from yesterday is shorting SPY and long UAUA which is working good so far, but I belive UAUA should start rally VERY STRONG once market resume anothe rally next week. Of course what I love to see is a sell off in S&P and rally in UAUA.
SWBB
i’ve also been very bullish on UAUA. Had some solid profits on it, but got out of all positions yesterday when the market looked like it was going to retrace. UAUA fell before the market though, so i didn’t get out in as optimal a position as i wanted, but no complaints.
Got the drop I was looking for into today to the ~1106 level. Long term 200ma sitting at 1109.53. Let’s see how well it holds up.
I’m seeing some positive divergence (on the intraday charts) on some stocks. Leaning towards a 1130 touch on opex?
Yeah, that drop helped offset some of that divergence that you wanted to see.
I’m leaning towards 1135, but we need to recapture 1111.8 and 1117.3 to lock that in.
The short term 5 minute 50ma and 200ma are getting a bit tight, and the market is forming an intraday wedge. RSI now has plenty of room to run. Looks like a nice set up for a good rise, but I’ll wait for some of those above confirmations.
And darn that sucker AXP forced me to grab my June 42 calls sold yesterday (albeit for a lot cheaper than I sold it for), and forced me to have July 42 hedging calls filled. This master of short squeeze never dies. August puts when it gets to $46 and beyond will be juicy the day before and after earnings.
haha. Yeah, we finally got that retrace today…
It’s hard to believe that there are no market manipulators when you see certain movement in the market. I’ve had so many ridiculous stops hit that never should have hit, and hit to THE PENNY.
Earnings are always scary…I generally stay away. But sometimes the charts scream for a position haha.
I’ve been watching V, and it’s started to get bullish again. It may get a retest of the 50ma and 200ma in the low 80s. If it can sustain the $77 area, this could really gain some steam and eventually break out into new highs. But that’s a much longer term view.
to Fritz :
As I said before short term target to opex is 1133. Luckily we got the retrace to 1105 before.
Woo how do you see the rest of the day playing out ???
I am starting to think that tomorrow being OPEX and all and i would think all those institutions who sold puts would love to make them worthless by rallying the market,just something to think about..
if we see 1112 again, i’ll consider taking a small SPY call position.
I’ve been loving the AAPL movement and making some good money there. I’ve been bullish on this a long time in the subscription section. I’ve been getting solid gains on GLD and GDX. Called for a GDX move to $52.96 into today, and got a rise up to $53.
Got in some TMF when TMV dropped below $46.83.
Overall it’s been a pretty good week. I don’t mind being patient on SPX/SPY.
last hour should be up to above 1119.
wouldn’t surprise me.
one more attempt to downside possible before.
if we see 1112, I think that will be solid enough to give us a good rise.
bounced off the 2 day trend line under here…
i really should have waited…but i alas i am in at $2.34
there’s the initial 1112 break i was looking for. i got in around 1111ish because the market seemed to be consolidating for a rise.
SPY july 112 strike at the price listed above ($2.34)
just dragging…
might get a 1111.8 retest.
testing 5 min 50ma and 200ma
Sold my 1000 shares of YRI.TO purchased Monday.
Up about 5% on that one.
I should have bought K.TO though, it’s up more…didn’t want too many eggs in one basket (other family members hold this one).
I sold now because it’s had a nice little run and I think gold is going to take a bit of a breather here.
122 on the GLD isn’t breaking, if it does I will have to look at things again.
Overall I’m not happy with the miners, they’re not going up as much as they should be.
Whatever, next trade.
Agrium looks interesting today…acting nice and predictable.
here we go …up to 1120 !
testing the 60 min 200ma at 1109.5
if it breaks here we could get a good sized drop.
if it does break, do you anticipate we test 1100 into the close?
it could happen. It could do a 3 wave down which would be a minimum drop to 1103 and probably extend to 1099-1100.
The 200ma here is on the 60 minute chart, so there’s still a chance it could be regained, but a close below that 200ma is bearish in my opinion and would mean a drop into tomorrow to the 1099 area.
if 1108 breaks, we’ll probably get more momentum for the drop.
and what does it entail for tomorrow. max optionpain for SPY is 109 but current pain is at 90! I’m assuming a lot of those 90s were bought/sold late last month/early this month.
we may head towards that max pain area.
this 1106-1107 is a good area for a bounce, if we are headed lower. i would say it’s a little dangerous holding index positions into tomorrow unless market can at least regain the 1109 area strongly.
yeah..i’m just thinking of using some of my buying power to use into tomorrow. thinking of selling some safe OTM put spreads on the SPX (not the SPY). But market action into the close isn’t making me comfortable. And I don’t want to short the market. So I may just end up watching the final 30 mins here.
if 1106.7 breaks, i would say danger. the current movement still allows for the market to rise into tomorrow. but yeah…it’s a bit risky until the bulls claim more territory.
looks like a new attempt to daily low ! but 1120 still possible.
i still like the upside possibility. i’ve decided to hold onto my small SPY position. we never got the 1119+ I wanted to see for a stronger position.
i’m going to hold into tomorrow, and if we get a good dip, i’ll consider adding to my position, or taking the loss.
Volume on today’s drop is still projected to be about 1 billion shares lower than the previous two days on the NYSE. I do not regret grabbing back the AXP June 42 calls at much lower price than I sold them for, because the volume on today’s drop is pathetic compared to the previous two days of strong rise. Things can of course change (just like the volume spike at the end of the day on Tuesday), but I keep an upside bias for tomorrow. Of course, if the market crashes tomorrow, I’ve got shares short for that.
Wow and we bounce back and forth again …You got to love the voo-doo that comes with opex..
here’s the 1 month SPX. hit the fib projection beautifully on that drop. Things still look good for 1135 minimum.
Not sure if this link will work or not.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p36207915842&a=181738042
Uploaded: http://social.focalequity.com/photo/woo1month-180?context=user
all those fib projection lines above here, shouldn’t cause too much resistance anymore. we should slice through 1114 and 1117 pretty easily when we get there. possibly back test them a little, but i don’t think anything too time consuming, unless consolidation is above those numbers.
easy break of 1114.4 as expected.
Please post a static.
I was so stubbornly holding the hedging calls because I spotted the positive divergence. I’ve said that positive divergences work out faster than the negative ones, because the game is called “screw the grizzlies”.
haha. i was doing the same thing with my SPX calls that were down about 10% at one point. now they are sitting a little more comfortably.
The charts didn’t break down enough to go strong bearish. the fib projection movement looked clean.
fritz – u thinking of holding your hedge calls overnight? not sure how long term your hedge position is.
i’m debating pulling just in case there is a pullback to 1112 into tomorrow.
Actually, we might get the beginning of that into close…
See my post below. I’m not afraid of a drop to 1112. Daily chart is what matters to me.
haha. i decided to hold. i’m leaning towards a break north of 1117, but am fine with retest south of here. time for lunch.
g’luck everyone!
Okay, here is what I think will play out (with references back to July 2009):
Everyone was looking at 1040 to break down back on June 8, I did the exact opposite by setting my account up to auto-buy calls on stocks that would break out (and ALL did). At 1109, everyone was looking to short, I held all calls until 1117. Remember July 2009 opex week? That’s right, no one thought it could continue to go higher after rallying 1000 DOW points, but it did.
July 2009 opex, stocks closed ABOVE max pain AND current pain, so the Monday following opex was a short covering rally by the naked call options writers. I think Monday June 21 will likely be the same. We may drop a bit tomorrow morning and then just gyrate higher. It probably won’t be as fast as Tuesday or Wednesday, but still good enough to make grizzlies sweat blood.
Later next week, we could see a back test (and tap below) the 200 day SMA again, but then we’ll probably get another crazy leg up (VIX 21 and below) to set a new record on the NYMO. Remember that the indicators must go beyond the first extreme for it to be a counter-trend move.
the thousands of way ITM SPY calls AH should be reason enough to think we go up tomorrow
My OTM AXP hedging calls that I was forced to grab this morning are ITM already.
Tomorrow should be interesting. Volume was very low today. If the market does not move up, we have a flat top spread across 4 days. Last 6 months history shows that when the market is in an uptrend, a flat top results in market dropping.
On the other hand, the market needs to consolidate above the 200 day moving average. Last 2 days have been bullish in my opinion. I am holding on to my SU (Suncor) longs that I bought a week back