2:07pm
Off to watch the Brasil soccer game. But while i’m here. Here’s the bullishness coming into play for the SPY daily chart as it breaks the double bottom (potentially, depending on how we end today). This break will help it reach the 112.50 and 115 marks on the SPY. Here’s the daily:
Intraday Commentary ~ 6/15/2010
– June 15, 2010Posted in: Intraday Commentary, Stock and ETF Models
Does anyone have any suggestions for a high beta short play? With the market about to crash, I’m looking at shorting opportunities. Any suggestions?
UAUA negative divergence and above upper bollinger band, LCC backed off more yesterday, looking for airlines all to back off. UAUA many upgrades yet still negative divergence.
DE, profit margins are at best level so somewhat thinking things can only get worse, shorted over 59 yesterday and covered mid 57s, would look to do again on any bounce.
I can not see any crash ahead in the next days, even weeks. But there might be a chance of a crash to the upside in the next 2 weeks. My target in the SPX is 1220 by the middle to end August.
Than there is a higher chance of a crash coming anytime from Aug 24th to October 11th !!
1220, no way.
1150 max.
we’ll see though. I think we grind up to 1150.
One more hourly chart push up to the Dow Industrials DJIA 10,350 area will complete the counter trend wave 2 upward move. Then, later today, we should begin wave 3 down.
A move below 10,000 probably means we are definitely in wave 3 and heading down much lower. However, if the market does not drop hard from the 10,350 area (and stays above the 10,000 area), this wave up has only been wave a of wave 2 up and we need to complete wave b down and wave c up above 10350 before completing wave 2 and turning down for wave 3:
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/elliott-wave-cycle-status-2010-2011-stock-market-direction-is-down
what happened to my account? I couldn’t log into the site yesterday and today so I just registered again.
Anyways, went long 1000 shares of NYSE:AUY yesterday.
Stops in place, we’ll see how it works out today.
I think the markets do well this week so this trade might pay off later in the month.
Side note, for not sure what it means for the stocks immediately:
German ZEW sentiment, June 15, 2010:
Actual – 28.70
Forecast – 48.70
Previous – 45.80
Lower than forecast is normally “bearish” for the Euro.
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/german-zew-sentiment-indicator-crashes-hardest-since-lehman-june-2010
Today or tomorrow we’ll break above 1105-1110 mark, IMO. On that break I’ll be adding more calls.
Natural gas looks good again today. Up 5% from yesterday on double etf.
UNG looks like it may wantto pull back i do hope so i would love to get in around $8.00 but that may be a pipe dream at this point.
I agree !!
Is anyone expecting a pullback again like yesterday?
the Euro is coming down but I still dont see any major cracks for the day…..Any opinions?
TIA
I’m leaning towards a breakout or consolidation being more likely than a pull back. We may get a gap up tomorrow over the resistance line of 1105.
Alot of bad news out there first we had terrible retail numbers then trade deficit yesterday it was Greece again (the gift that keeps on giving) and today Best Buy which is a good indicator as far as discretionary spending goes.Let’s face it no one has to go to BBY and buy a flat screen but it does show that the consumer is feeling the pinch and it was a big miss,yet the market is still up !!! What does that tell you, last week if Europe sneezed wrong we would tank 500 points..The market makers want this thing higher !!!
As long as we have dollar weakness and Euro strength we will go higher forget all the rest of the economic indicators…
davecash77, a couiple of days ago when several key traders forcasted market go down to 1000, you were the only one think different. Do you still thinks SP will go to 1150 and form right shoulders before move down?.
For day traders, it looks like 1105 is a strong resistance
I do think we will get to at least 1130 and then possibly 1150 as long as we have dollar weakness and euro strength IMO…But it may take a while !!!
Little early on UAUA this morning, 9000 short 23.7, may have topped now at 24.2 and back to 23.8
Brazilian air carriers–GOL & TAM flying high and cruising right now. Could have a day trade short opportunity. But thinly traded so be careful.
I actually recommended UAUA as a buy yesterday into today for a healthy rise in the leveraged ETF subscription. I think we could see the $26 area before a major drop. I might sell all my positions before EOD though.
Currently i am in cash and will probably start some long positions tomorrow.The reason why i want to wait until tomorrow first off i hope we can bust through 1105 and have a confirmed close above that level.The other reason the president will address the nation tonight and not only that i do believe he will use this opportunity/crisis to unviel his agenda for energy reform ie cap n trade on fossill fuels.This could have a huge impact on the oil industry and impact energy prices not to mention the possibility of placing BP in recievership like Robert Reich is suggesting.The third reason a tone of data in the pre -market will set the tone for the day and if it is bad news it will allow a better entry on longs and if it is good well i will have missed the gap up..That is my game plan I am looking at Tech and Gold miners and possibly some steel stocks..
If making higher high, it’s negative divergence. Retails buying double the calls for every put. Please take note.
So time to buy the VIX around these levels then huh? Too much complacency starting to creep in?
SPY at key levels again.
Shorting SSO at 37.20. Tight stops are in place.
Watching RIM.TO a break of $64 would clear the way to test $68.
sp500 close to 1150. Let see how market react to double top
this is our 5th or so time trying to break through 1105 in the last month or so.
i think we break it this time and then fail at 1150 at some point in the next few weeks.
Woo, is seems you also favour sp500 will form a right shoulder at close 1150.
that could happen.
but the market is a bit oversold. and we’ve got some strong resistance at the 1108-1109 area on the longer term charts.
I’m not sure if we have enough short term juice to get it above there.
we would need some consolidation here under 1109 to get a healthier rise.
Slicing through 1105 now…I think the rest of the week is bullish up to Thursday at least.
Kaboom !!!!!! Up Up + Away
not so fast grasshopper.
patience. The real prize is above 1109.
I get excited easily !!!
lol
There is still a small chance of a revisite of the 1085-1088 before we take really off !! Top for today should be the 200 day MA at 1111.
Opex is still ahead !!
what would conservitorship for bp mean for the shareholders, i have 400 shares?
tia
obama is already saying they shouldn’t give out a dividend. i haven’t looked at the chart yet, but i heard they’ve got at least 200 lawsuits filed against them by various organizations, businesses, and governments.
conservatorship would probably be pretty painful…
i think everybody is looking for a bargain on bp… oil is still spilling… lawsuits aren’t settled… they haven’t really been “punished” yet. I personally would wait for a bit more strength before taking on BP shares, but that’s just me. BP definitely won’t go under though, so longer term you can probably hold out. Timing is everything.
Good luck!
to clarify, by “going under” i meant out of business, not lower than the current lows on stock price.
thanks
I believe Idan has been watching the stock a bit. He can probably offer a better opinion on it based on the charts.
and IV on BP is pretty high so selling upside calls month after month (if you intend to hold this for the longer term), you could at least get some of your losses back (of course it depends what your net entry price is.
alright…here’s the next push after some consolidation and some easing on the short term RSI.
can u see a head crowning?
hmm….RSI still relatively high…200ma won’t give in that easily.
This is not sitting well with me. No new SPY positions at the moment.
If the market is going to hold the 200ma, it needs to consolidate here above it for a bit longer.
If it doesn’t, it can easily avg down on the 60 minute and break back south, offset short term RSI, and head us back towards 1105.
looking pretty good on the bullish side. Could get a nice gap up towards the 1119 area. Possibly a slow rise into close.
I’m just going to wait till tomorrow for SPY.
I’ll consider selling UAUA at EOD.
stupid RSI and market movement is ruining everything. I wanted to enter a position around this area when it came. If we see $23.75, I may consider leaving my UAUA position and just locking in profits. Market could open lower, but then gap up tomorrow.
I’ll wait and look for the 200ma 1109 area to hold tomorrow before taking a long position on SPY.
Either we sell-off into the close or we drop tomorrow. I’m 90% certain. A drop here into 1088 (or even a tap at 1085) is healthy for the bulls.
I still have 1140 and beyond as a target for the longer term rise. Fund managers need to get out at near pre-crash levels.
i think 1088 is a little low for my tastes. There’s a chance that we hold the 200ma into tomorrow and get a healthy rise.
Also we’ve got a shorter term trend line under here which is sitting a little below 1100. I wouldn’t want to see that break. If 1094 breaks, I’ll probably wait a while before taking a long.
So you’re saying you won’t respect the negative divergence on the 15/30 charts? No divergence on the 120 minute charts, so I agree the trend is bullish for the next couple of weeks, but within the next two sessions there will likely be a pullback. The best thing for the bulls will be a gap down open tomorrow (and nightmare for the bears).
I respect the divergence, which is why I agree there could be a drop into tomorrow, which is why I didn’t take any SPY long/call positions earlier even though we broke the 200ma.
I just don’t think we need to drop as far as you are saying (although it can very well happen). I just don’t like what that movement would do to my 1 month and 1 year chart. =)
I’m not counting on that drop to take place deep into 1080s, but I’m okay with it as long as it’s a tap and away within 60 minutes.
That’s basically how I am playing the market. like I mentioned earlier, the more major resistance north of here is 1119. So it’s dangerous to short into tomorrow.
However, there is a good chance we could still head lower at open. I am not willing to take that risk.
Either way, we’ll see how it opens, and we’ll all trade it from there. I think we’re generally on the same page on INDEX positions and precaution.
Any open or move above the 200ma tomorrow, and I’ll be taking a long position with stops though.
Could be totally right. Someone just bought 9K Jun 107 P contracts on the SPY before trading closed at 415.
would you be buying TZA for hold til tomorrow?
TIA
thinking of buying 50k shares on margin!!!!!!!!!!! maybe a big mistake but this whole thing seems to be a big mistake
No shorting here. I’ve warned against shorting way back when we were at 1070 before May opex. This thing could go all the way to 1170 before you know it. If you day trade long, you just want to get out before a possible late dump or gap down open tomorrow.
I’m with you Fritz. I’ve got good profits built this month and would be best served with an SPY of 109-110 on OPEX.
Still short UAUA, going short DE as mentioned first thing this morning DE short 59.14.
I couldn’t resist taking some profits here from Teck Resources.
Positive divergence on UUP hourly RSI. Wondering if tomorrow will be a red day. Only holding nat gas and gold, no options into tomorrow.
wow, just chugging right along SPX 1112.91
Are we going to see 1119 today?
We should close near the HOD. That should put in a peak in the NYMO. A small drop and then rise into opex and beyond should set up divergence on the NYMO.
A nice gap down tomorrow to get a good entry on some long positions would be nice.
Have we oficially gone from sell the rallies to buy the dips ??
Makes good sense. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the 1090 range.
wow, look at RIMM go. I’ll be buying calls on RIMM on a pull back.
In mid Feb, a Brazil psychic forcasted that market will crash on June 16. The guy predicted many important events before. How much we belive that.
Man, when it rains, it pours (no pun intended) on BP. I’m sure more news from other IBs like this latest one will come out in the next few days. Pfowler, I hope you sold some upside calls on your 400 shares or got out with the pop today.
yep, but will start to lose money if it goes below 25 dollars by friday.