1:56pm
The market has been falling away from the 110.80 level that we said was strong resistance… but the real reversal will only come if we can break below 109.30.
12:33pm
Everybody knows that my opinion on RIMM has always been bearish, because it was trading in an ascending wedge formation (defined by my two red lines), which was very bearish as soon as it broke support. And as you can see on the daily chart, it collapsed. However, it might be turning into an attractive buy as it broke today my resistance defined in a blue line. To be sure, you might want to see it break 63, however, if the market does continue higher, i expect RIMM to play “catch up”.
12:17pm
Even though we didn’t quite retest the breaking out point. Traders listening in to my live video last week know i bought a lot of UNG at 7.92 on the back test (that i told people would happen). And now we’re off to the races again.. I expect UNG to be in the low teens as UNG is building a longer term bottom. Here’s a 60 minute of the restest for the buyers:
12:11pm
It doesn’t take much to see that the financials are not feeling this rally at all. GS hasn’t really moved off the lows. And JPM earlier today was piratically at the lows and bounced off of them. This is a huge divergence from the SPY. I wonder if this will pull the SPY back down over the next few days. Here’s a daily of JPM:
12:03pm
As I mentioned before, today could be the last opportunity the bears have to keep this market down. If we break out of today’s highs, i’d be more bullish into the rest of the week. You can see on the daily we hit the 200 SMA (as we did last time we topped out) and are right around the highs of last top:
12:01pm
The USO might have a nice shorting opportunity… 2 weeks ago, it broke $35.50 support and started crashing down, now it’s coming up to retest it. When it does hit 35.50 i expected prior support to be strong resistance. It’s a very nice potential for a short with a 1.5-2% stop loss (swing trade). Here’s the daily:
11:58am
The XLF (including GS) compared to the SPY is much more bearish. It will need to break $15 for it to be bullish, whereas the SPY is already as the breaking point. Here’s the daily XLF:
11:53am
The SPY is presenting the last shorting opportunity before you have to start thinking long (for swing trades). Right now, it’s right at the resistance region which confirms a double bottom at 104.50. If it breaks out of it, we would have put a bottom. It could be that the SPY is just going up to 115 to form a nice symmetrical H&S formation, but if it breaks 110.80-111, i’d be more bullish than bearish until that action reverses back. Here’s a 60 minute SPY for you to see the resistance:
11:50am
AAPL is going to be finding it’s strongest resistance, around these levels at 250.70.. if it breaks above these levels on the 60 minute, we can get a retest of the highs. Take a look at the resistance:
hello there..
anyone has any charts and analysis on AAPLE?? took a small put position fri at close..been in a wedge on both the daily and 60 min..and hitting up to some reisistance at the current price..maybe tops at 255ish..still the MACD is negativie an nasdaq has been weak compared to the dow and sp. with this so-called FTC investigation..will it drop?? seriously doubt it will make a run, i think the top is done and past and AAPL should drop to the low 200′s..but only time will tell. as for tomorrow, would like to see if back down to the low 240′s and move on.
anyways, thanks all
I posted an AAPL chart.. hopefully that helps.
Craig’s charts look interesting.
Here is another EW view, similar in the downward sense –
We should be entering a wave 3 down of wave (1) down of wave 3 circle down. The first power wave (more to come later) of this year’s long down market.. Alternate wave counts (not shown) would allow the market to retrace higher from here before rolling over to the down side. See chart here:
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/elliott-wave-cycle-status-2010-2011-stock-market-direction-is-down
Here’s todays freebie
http://www.spoofee.com/index.php?section=deal&did=680697
bot 20k TZA at $6.71 .10 stoploss
stopped out done for the day…… gl everyone
I should be bearish and going short.
However, when things seem that obvious it is the wrong thing to do.
I’ve been here before.
So the only move is to a) do nothing, b) go long.
I’m leaning towards a for today.
Just take a look at the dollar wweakness and the Euro strength…Market going higher in the short term IMO..
That’s really smart.. but you can also go short with a very tight stop as i’m describing in my charts above.
SPX 1105 is resistance, should get a short term drop from there. I’m leaning towards doing nothing as well, unless we break well above 1105.
1105-1108 is my strongest resistance… it’s a very nice place to put a short and then put a stop right over it. So i’m on the same boat as you.
Hopefully no one will ignore those divergences on the indicators again.
(Long hedges that got auto-filled at 1044 are sitting 60 SPX points higher now thanks to the positive divergences. February 2010 mistake must not be repeated.)
The divergences on my 60 minutes SPY (MACD) are more bearish than bullish… we made a new low on the MACD even though were were just about flat between febs low, and this low.
Not saying there shouldn’t be a short term pullback, I completely expect it. As long as the daily hasn’t shown negative divergence, SPX 1140 and beyond is still a very real possibility. People who swing trade this tape should be aware of the positive divergence and respect it.
I agree that in the long term we’ll likely head lower, but it’s the time frame that matters. When charts aren’t telling you that a collapse will take place soon, you can’t go against the trend.
The only things that were more or less certain when I left this site back on March 8 were: 1) I foresaw a trigger event that should mark the top of the rally or close to it by April 15 (it turned out to be Goldman Sachs on April 16); 2) I foresaw a cataclysmic dive by early May (it turned out to be the May 6 crash). Warned in a cryptic message on March 8. Since then, it’s been long term shorts on AXP and JPM protected with long term calls and the rest were out of the trading account. Just had some short term hedges auto-filled on June 8 at 1044. I see 1088 holding for this week. Unless negative divergence shows up on the daily charts, people shouldn’t blindly short this tape hoping for a ride down to 920.
Does anyone think UNG may pull back a bit or should i start a position here around $8.45 ????
IMHO it will pull back a bit. If you can pick it up in the 8-8.15 range buy it. Remember this is a longterm hold. By end of summer/ fall it will give some nice returns.
Thanks …:-) Go Celtics
dsavill or anybody else who would like to chime in.Do you think it would be wise to wait until O’bama’s speach tomorrow night about the gulf oil spill and his energy plans or possibilty of lifting the drilling ban and would this impact UNG…???
I think the TV president speech is going to make it clear that BP will have to put up a so called bond if you will to insure that whatever time or cost is envolved to clean this gulf up will be borne by BP and to try and make everyone understand that is the goal. I believe also that any and all other rigs out here have to have safety mechanisms put into force and come under a federal inspection on a yearly basis to make sure that they are in fact operating correctly and safe. I don’t think the drilling ban will be lifted until they have the safety plan put in place. As far as the fishing is concerned that will stay the way it is until the thing is shut off and then some after the clean up is taken care of. I don’t really think it has any real effect on the price of say UNG. If anything it would put you in a better place to say buy UNG and that UNG price is more of a longer term investment and that when the gulf situation is under control that UNG will have more room to start moving up. The oil that they are recoving will be used to put back into the market to help raise the cash to pay for the spill. The real key here is to first shut it off and then raise or have the cash to pay for it and not for BP to go out of business. Basically at this point of time that leak is the same as one valdez tanker spill a week so do the math. If those relief wells that BP is drilling right now have any problems they could cause more leakage and BP has already said that is a possibility. God’s speed to this gulf leak to be stopped and pray that no hurricanes occur. If a hurricane shows up all bets are off.
Bought some HNU.TO as long term play. Waiting for 1090 area to go long.
Don’t know how true this is but dam…I would not want to be holding any oil company gioing into the presidents speach to the nation tomorrow night.
B.P, Halliburton and Transocean have unleashed Armageddon and now there is no stopping it.
Time: 6/14/2010 10:28:00 AM
source:opednews.com
B.P, Halliburton and Transocean have unleashed Armageddon and now there is no stopping it. Senator Bill Nelson has told us how bad it is.
This is our worst nightmare. The oil industry has killed the Gulf of Mexico.
My worst fears have been realized. If this link is true and the oil is coming through the sea floor, they have either blown out the formation or blown out the cement (which we know they did anyway to get the blowout to occur). I am beginning to realize why they have not wanted toclose the valves on the cap. The more theyclose it, the more oil is going to come up through the sea floor, next to the well casing. I listed 12 points in my attached article. The really big concern here is that their directional wells are now pointless. They are GUARANTEED to fail because you can not pump mud or cement into a blown out well. It just does not set with oil and gas roaring past.
http://stock–market-today.blogspot….cean-have.html
Anyone here tracking NFLX? Such a strong stock and rising on above avg. volume too.
i like NFLX short now.. it’s a little too overbought here.. and might get a pull back with the market. Then again, i would wait for it to form a reversal candle on the daily to make sure… probably has a tiny more room to go to 128-130.
yeah..this reminds me of AAPL & BIDU when neither wanted to go down for more than a couple of days.
CRM is also another stock I was watching. If tomorrow brings weakness to this stock, I’ll consider a small short position as it’s right on a horizontal line that was previous resistance.
Only 18 occurrences last decade of two up days for $SPX on neg TICKscore, 16 times SPX lower 2-3 days later
Bought some TCK.B.TO calls. I think we’ll see a red Tuesday followed by green days after that.
MTG,
Are you reading my mind with some kind of high-tech gadget right now? LOL.
I think the market will drop tomorrow but reverse to close in the green. Opex Wednesday is statistically the most bullish. Still 6 minutes more, but 1088 is holding so far.
I think the market might tap below that tomorrow but won’t break it legitimately.
LOL…yeah, I’m feeling some vibes from you Fritz. I will buy some more Teck calls tomorrow if we drop a good amount tomorrow.
What’s the next resistance below 1088, are you looking at 1076 area?
The way it looks now any drop below 1088 will be short lived. 1080 should be the stopping point (but it might have a hard time reaching it), with a double tap of 1078 possible.
You see, the way the market works is that just prior to a trend reversal, it usually comes back near where it started so that people who got caught have a final chance to get out unharmed. That happened at 1042 and my account was setup to auto-hedge at that level. Now it might possibly go all the way back to 1170 so that people can get out at near pre-crash levels. There are quite a few resistance levels overhead now, and if I were long I wouldn’t hold till 1170, but I want to see VIX going back to 20 before the start of even bigger down turn, which is inevitable now. (Ironically, it was the relentless rally from February to April that killed the market for good. It had the chance for the bear market to end this year had the double dip started in February.)
In agreement with you Fritz. I think SPX dips for the most part of tomorrow and forming right shoulder on an inverse h&s on the hourly. Neckline is around today’s high which would coincide with a declining 200SMA. I think this could be what propels the market to break above the 200 SMA for the moment. Market goes up forming that right shoulder on a much bigger h&s on the daily and piercing MAs as well as 1040 later in the summer.