Here are several charts: The truncated leading diagonal just doesn’t sit well with me, even if it’s only truncated on the S&P and Wilshire indexes. The entire move down from 1220 certainly looks impulsive, and this is supported by the internals. The question is how to count it. The (iii) of [iii] of 3 count still is valid, even though its not pretty. This recent rally is really pushing deep for a wave (ii) retrace, but has not yet violated any rules. The move off the recent low can be counted as a zig-zag. If the market opens strong, I’ll know I’m wrong and accept the alternate count. I should have more charts this weekend.
How many bearish traders do you know that have covered shorts in the past two days? I’m thinking a lot, which makes it a perfect time for a gap down. We shall see…
Here is the alternate count that has the market in Minor 2 - with a truncated Minute [v] of Minor 1.
This 30-minute XLF chart is showing some negative divergences.
Here’s a look at the TED spread, which is the rate banks are willing to lend to each other. The risk of a credit market freeze up is increasing. How banks are behaving is a great indicator for the health of an economy. One of the worst measures is consumer confidence, unless you’re using it as a contrarian indicator. Looks like its in a 3rd of a 3rd wave, doesn’t it?
Gold looks Bearish on the Monthly, Weekly, and now Daily timeframes. Check out all the negative divergences on this daily chart. I can see Gold falling down towards 1080 very quickly.
any thought on where oil is headed?
In general, oil is not a market I like to trade, but like most resources, it will not be immune to deflationary pressures. I think the long-term trend for oil is lower.