Daniel Shporin
4:15PM
I took a short of 1 contract at 1080 on the /ES. Here is why.
3:30PM
Took 7points profit at 1081. Done for the day, take care!
Idan will be LIVE TRADING at 1:00pm EST today, like everyday!
You can also ask him questions by blogging on the intraday commentary at http://www.focalequity.com
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Daniel Shporin
10:45AM
Went long /ES @ 1074. I bid it 4pts higher than I intended to because I’ll be willing to buy another one at a lower levels as long as the market internals remain as strong as they currently are.
10:15AM
I am not a fan of days like today when you gap and instantly follow through in the direction of the gap. We’ll probably see the 1080s today, so I might go long around 1070-1065.
9:30AM
I took both of my contracts off at 1058.50 at midnight. Entering the day flat, and waiting for now.
Good Morning..
European Morning Briefing
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9QBXTWJJUU&playnext_from=TL&videos=LqkYcLRQv7o
EW Wave Counts – Down we continue. DJIA 8,100 here we come…
http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/i/ew_wave_count_june_9_2010_djia_8100_target
Looks like we are here, according to that EW analysis in the link: “then we go down again for waves 3 and then 5 of this last 5th wave of wave 1″
Futures are way up so is the Euro and unless something drastically changes it looks like an up day !!!
Playing with the 10k mark again on the DOW this AM is not out of the question. It is what it does from there is the big question. Looked nice and up yesterday and a few times in this overall down movement, only to peter out into losses at the bell. We shall see.
After looking at that chart a bump up seems possible then fall..That makes sense and also a good point to unload some longs into a rally !!!
FTSE has turned negative.
bot 20K TZA at $7.63 with.10 stop loss
sold out of position at $7.70
looks very shaky
bot 20k TZa again at $7.56 with a .20 stop loss
OK I give up why is the market soaring higher? What did I miss? The jobless claims were more than expected yet they say they were less by a little bit?
Because almost all EW traders chose to ignore massive positive divergences. People never learn.
Chinese exported more last month and some positive remarks about Europe actually floating around.
I posted a few days ago my cycle reversal on June 8-9 th. looks like we get a few weeks of side to up consolidation before major down move.
July 4?
At the moment i do have are different time clusters. First of all the market has to go up over June 14 th.
I do have some more reversal possibilities from July 14 th on. But the ideal high should be around Aug 24 th.
A pullback from August high and again up to Oct 8 th would be the classic crash set up.
If TYP gets in the $8.80 range i think i would pick it up..
What I see is IBM is rocketing.
still holding onto 20K TZA raising stoploss to $7.60
stoploss hit at $7.60
may buy again
Good that you are being more careful
..
Do you use market internals Tick, uvol, dvol, a/d line etc, to confirm your trades ?
I just started charting a while ago on daily and weekly… not as good as you guys but I will post all my trades( winner and losers) all the time.
Good for you..
I know this might be hard advice to follow, due to the excitement, but try to use smaller order sizes while you are learning,, because,, believe me,, while you learn you will lose. So the less painfull you can make that the better.
Here is a free video on how to use market internals:
http://www.shadowtrader.net/videos/MI_1_final.html
Good luck
thank you Optic for your help and advice…
Or sim trade. Because if you can’t sim profitably, you won’t be able to make real $$$.
Market moving lower now. SPX HOD 1083.
Tza has been hitting lower highs and higher lows on the daily chart. so it could go either way as the range narrows. lets see how it trades….
will post if i decide to pull the trigger again
well forget about that the low broke
Taking a shot for 1k of tza @ 7.50
Low so far for TZA is 7.50 let’s see if it matches or goes lower.
great buy
Maybe but if market soars higher which it could I set stop @ 7.45.
bot 20k TZA again at $7.59
out at b/e
Offer to buy TZA 1k @ 7.44 see how bad they want me hehe.
Looks like 1080 is acting as good resistance here. We may see a drop before we see more gains.
GS thru May lows of 134.2
bot 5k FAZ .30stoploss
bot at $16.12
The time period between 11:30 and 1pm in the markets is generally characterized by lower overall volume and lack of trend.
Alot of trader avoid placing new trades at that time.. Before that,, is called the morning session.. After that, it’s called the afternoon session.. This time in the middle is also called ‘chop time’ because there is alot of ‘chop’ and whipsawing…
Here is my daily pre trading read.. feel free to print it, post it and read it everyday before the market opens:
Daily Pre-Trading Read
“Respect the wild market. Focus on the mechanics…”
The majority of retail traders lose all their money trading. This is a fact!!
Why? 2 main reasons…
1. Lack of trading knowledge & planning
2. Lack of proper trading psychology/discipline
The only way to have a hope of a chance to be part of that successful minority and be able to make a living out of this is by successfully being able to do the following consistently!! :
Preparation
- Have you done all your home work (Both T.A. & Fundamentals)? Have you established all the details of the setups you will play if given a chance? Are you using the right strategies for the current market conditions? Only if so,, do you have 50% of your work done.
Here is the other 50%:
Psychology and Execution
- Patience & Discipline are the biggest psychological challenges for a trader. By having the patience and discipline to ONLY play the few high probability setups the market presents to you is the best and only way to show respect to the wild market. Play anything else and you will end up giving your hard earned winnings back. Proven fact!!
- Only play your setups. Choose your entry/exit points carefully. Do not impulse trade!! Chasing a stock or playing inside consolidation is a losing game. If you miss a move, keep missing it. If a stock is consolidating, find another play.
- Cut your losses quickly. Multiple entries are likely till one catches the real break out/down, if there is to be one. But out of respect for the market till that time comes, CUT YOUR LOSSES QUICKLY.
‘Trading is an opportunities game whose key is in choosing how, when & where to do business ’
thank you again
I printed it and will read it everyday before I start my day
Total NYSE volume so far: 5.7 Million
Advance volume: 5.4 Million
Decline volume: 0.2 Million
GS ANNOUNCES THAT THEY ARE “NO WHERE NEAR SETTLEMENT”
Haven’t traded at all today.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p24130876902&a=181738042
i’d like to see the 200ma/5min rise up a bit to the 1065 level. Then if the market tanks below the trend line there and the 200ma, that would be a good short position. Probably won’t consider a long position in this sideways market till at least 1090.
hey Woo
then i click at the link, this is what it look like, is that right???
http://billedeupload.dk/upload/files/2010-06/15e837ad.png
hmm…. maybe there was a problem with the link…Either that or I am really bad at charting lol.
Try this:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p62396344581&a=181738042
I get the same thing as Mortimer.. I actually get that with most of the charts you post from stockcharts. Maybe it has to do with not having an acct with stock charts?
Although,, there has been a few times where it has showed up in stockcharts… funny
Hope you r feeling better now btw
..
i guess i’ll have to just upload and post them to the top of the page from now on. Requires extra steps though.
Thanks for letting me know!
Woo – that is because its a 5 min chart
The daily charts on black backgrounds work fine but anything else ie 5 min or 60 min does not work – this is the same thing I was seeing before
me to, this is not the first time it look like that
it the same…
i should write stockcharts a letter and complain….
Im shocked that FAZ still hasnt moved . with the news out of GS cohn regarding the settlement and the shares are down almost 5 points…
Still holding onto 5k shares at $16.12
I think there is some big anouncement about new regulation of finacial institutions at 2:15
So b careful with your stop..
Good luck
Looking for a good entry on TYP to go short tech ???
I’m not a fan of shorting tech just now… i need more confirmation that we are breaking out on TYP and hta’ts only in like 9.35 ++
interesting article
http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-is-about-to-turn-into-americas-public-enemy-1-2010-6
Alright. Here’s the chart loaded on FE social. You can zoom it as well:
http://social.focalequity.com/photo/woo1month-368?context=user
nice, thanks woo
i have a target for sp500 at 1088-1092, what i your toughs on that??
that’s actually a pretty healthy range for the market to not break just yet. Based on the trend lines above here, the market shouldn’t break above 1090 into tomorrow. If it does, then we’re going to start seeing a lot more bullish action, and it would be a great place to start adding a long position as I mentioned in comment 18. I don’t think we’ll even see a break above 1085 before the day is over. If we do, we’ll run into 1089, and then 1092.
Market needs to at least get back below 1075 to gain some bearishness.
my toughs exactly
)
might be seeing some cracks in the armor here…up volume/down volume candles with long tails showing up more frequently (still green though)…SPX moving down back to the 20SMA 5 min…so hard to play this either way…
Here’s the 20 year chart zoomed to 3 years. We’re above that long term 20 year red trend line. That’s bullish for the moment.
http://social.focalequity.com/photo/wooew10year-zoom-2?context=user
Hey Woo – glad to see you back and hope you are feeling better
Just for your info – the issues with the charts above were because they were 5 min charts … anything that is less than a daily chart will not be visible to those who don’t have stockcharts memberships … however the daily charts usually work fine ….
Hopefully this helps save some of the extra effort for uploading ….
Maybe u can post a link and mortimer, optic and some of us can confirm … but this is what I have usually seen …
yeah, i’ll just upload them from now on. thanks!
tHANKS
Thanks for the charts woo.
AAPL starting to participate in this rally
aapl needs to get above the 60 min 50ma at mid 251.50s, and then the long term trend line at almost 255 to gain more of a steady bullish stance.
If not, there’s a chance it could gap down to 240, if not lower.
what crazy day
got stopped out of my FAZ position with a .50 loss
bummer
Sorry to hear that… looking for assurance or divergence in the internals helps you deside if you will take a counter interday trend position. Be sure to watch that video.
Another thing I do is that I keep a log of all my trades.
I write the tycker, price in / out, loss or profit amount, why I got in, and any comments (like if I learned anything new from the trade)
Some traders log ALL of their trades,, others just log the ones where there was a profit or loss greater than xx% ..
It has helped me alot..
How have people enjoyed shorting the market against the massive positive divergences on the daily charts?
Nice to see you back Fritz. I’m so tired of people who don’t know how to use certain indicators and by using them incorrectly they claim that they don’t work. Ignorance may not be so bliss after all.
I’m looking at 1150 as the next stop for the SPX, what are your thoughts?
You’ve read my mind.
The market is hovering around the down trendline since the April top. The DOW just touched it at 10175 and the S&P just peeked above it. The Nasdaq is still weak and not yet touched the trendline. If anything, I think the next pullback is a complete long side opportunity, and retails are still buying lots of put protection. If I were to short again, I would wait until negative divergences show up on the daily chart past the 1144 level.
You’re in Toronto, right? TSX will make a new high. Buy Canadian.
Guess we are not geniuses like you. How did you enjoy sitting out the rally?
Above was meant for Fritz. I thought we were beyond nah nah nah nah nah when Jimbo when AWOL. Guess not.
I had posted warnings against the short side since 1070 and warned of the positive divergences. Fool me once in February, shame on you (market); fool me twice, shame on me. I wasn’t going to get fooled again.
Don’t take it too hard, though. The question was meant to get people to look past EW, cycle analysis, or other forecasting method and take notice of the conventional indicators. I don’t want to see people strictly following EW and forget about other indicators.
(FYI, I had my long side hedges auto-filled at 1044 due to the massive positive divergences.)
TSX and DAX look both very bullish! New highs ahead !
Just seen !
Charles Nenner gave interview on June 8th.
http://www.bostonwealth.net/2010/06/08/technical-analyst-to-the-stars-charles-nenner-says-the-market-won%E2%80%99t-crash-until-the-fall/
If he is right my time cycles will work!
Looks like we will go up and form that right shoulder at 1150 on the SPY !!!
if only it were that easy =)
agree w/ Woo.
for now it looks like we could be in a range—1040 on the downside and 1107 (or 200 SMA) on the upside. 20 SMA could be a temporary roadblock tomorrow. right now we’re in the middle of that range
Do you still have your 1230 projection? Or are you in the Daneric, Prechter this market is going WAY down camp?
Well I am still in the P3 camp that we are going below the 666 bottom.
It’s just a matter of timing of when that will happen, and if the market is going to head higher prior to that happening. I think Prechter is saying that we’re already in P3.
I think that there’s a chance that P2 might not be done, and we could head to 1230 if not 1300s. But that remains to be seen. When the charts point towards a specific direction and the probability of that direction is high, you’ll see me posting up a storm and being as stubborn as a mule about why I feel we’re headed towards a specific direction no matter what other people think (those who have followed me for a year or so, will know what I mean).
At the moment, I don’t think the market is giving any clear direction. It is especially not giving a clear indication that we are breaking down because long term ascending trend lines are still holding. we’re also barely below the 200ma on the long term charts.
The fact remains that we’ve been moving sideways for the last 2-6 months (depending on how you define things), and for people to say that during all this correction we’ve received more clarity is a bit beyond me.
Also it doesn’t matter if people say P3 is coming. If you’re off by 3 months, 6 months, or even a year, people can lose all or most of their money and everybody can still be right in the end that there was an eventual P3.
I will agree that we are in P3 when the charts tell me it’s there. I don’t really care if I miss out on a small chunk of P3 either, there will be plenty of profit to make on P3 when it is confirmed. Until then, I’m playing my positions very cautiously.
I put this together before I left in the morning..
http://www.screencast.com/users/davlee1972/folders/SP500/media/aebb44ef-6da8-4dfb-836c-100a735e5f82
I think today’s 1087 close on the S&P creates a clear A-B-C where C = A.
I need to look at all the sentiment figures when I go home..
It could be true. I’ll wait for a bit more breakdown before shorting again. Also will look for a bit more breakout before going long. No positions into closing.
Although I believe the short term bottom is in at 1040, it is true that there are negative divergences on the 15/30 minute charts (however positive divergences on daily charts) with the market closing right at the down trendline since April. Tomorrow’s close will determine the direction for the next two weeks. The weekly chart still has no positive divergence; therefore, the intermediate term direction is still down. I just can’t imagine what kind of pain it will be to short the first bullish retracement of the first intermediate degree wave down against all positive divergences.
makes it fun =)
That’s why I’m only daytrading these days. Better safe than sorry. I am sure there have been a lot of rude awakenings for traders holding positions overnight in the last 2 months.
Thought I’d pop in.
Unfortunately for Daneric and the gang.. they fail to take into account the September 6-month low at 985. Until that is taken out (which I have mentioned over 1000x and 10x in my charts) I am bullish.
No wonder why, my chart is the most viewed on Focal Equity
http://ning.it/9tn8Iv
I seriously think everyone should just short the leveraged ETF’s in pairs..
FAZ/FAS
HUN.TO/HNO.TO
HGU.TO/HGD.TO
HNU.TO/HND.TO
It’s easy money.. If 985 on the S&P breaks you cover the short pairs..
gl
i guess i would be careful about being long for 2 reasons, one is that this is a munipulated rally from march and we don’t know when they will pull the plug on the munipulation. some very well know ew and market timers are calling for a bottom in august. we may get a bounce to 1150 but i would play the short side at that time rather than ride it up there, and if you are a deflationist, which i am, i would short gold and silver on any bounce around 1250 or 18.50
like Woo said, it’s really about how you manage your risk regardless of which direction you choose. it’s not just about picking a number to where the market is headed but also how it gets there. we could be @ 1150 by the end of the month but we could also be below 1040 by then.
we can make endless trendlines that support bullish and bearish scenarios. it’s how you play your stocks on the way to your theorized target that make you profitable and thus successful at what you do.
for every “successful” market timer, there are probably hundreds of failed market timers.
just my opinion of course..
Pfowler20:
EWT is nice, but it does not take into account a breakthrough in life and higher standards of living.
If someone invents the new ‘fire’.. dow is going straight to 50,000..
1900 industrials..
1950s technology
2000 ???