Daniel Shporin
11:50PM
Took both contracts off, 18pts total booked. I’m entering tomorrow flat. Goodnight!
4:10PM
Great day today with 2 simple trades. I forgot to mention I didn’t post for you guys yesterday because I was trying a different style, with some hedging between Oil (/QM) and S&P (/ES) and it resulted in a $1,000 down day.
Here are my two trades on /ES and their current stops:
1072.50—Stop @ 1058
1062.25—Stop @ 1066.25
Worst case scenario, I walk away with 10pts. Best case scenario is whatever the market decides to do overnight. I’ll update this position later tonight or tomorrow morning if there isn’t anything to say tonight.
3:25PM
Stop in to secure 1062.50. That’s 10pts on my first lot and 1tick on the second lot. We bounced right at 1054 as expected, but if we break it, a good day will turn into a fantastic day.
3PM
I like the momentum, short another at 1062.75.
2:30PM
Stop lowered to 1073, risking 2 ticks on the trade. I may sell another one if we gain some serious momentum lower and break the low of the day.
Idan Koren
1:37pm
Downside is accelerating as the treasury auction for the 10 yr happens on LOW demand (high yeild). For the day to be truly bearish, we need a close around 107.15 and below. Here’s my 60 min SPY chart:
Daniel Shporin
12:25PM
Stop is in at 1078, I’ll let a new HOD take me out.
11:25AM
Shorted 1 /ES at 1072.50. Waiting for now.
Idan Koren
11:05am
The SPY is hitting up against a 50% retrace from the last high to teh low of 104.5 right at $107.87 which is very close to the 200 SMA 10 minute too.. a possible place to short
Daniel Shporin
9:50AM
Correction, I entered the day FLAT, not short, and I am still waiting for 1070-1085.
9:20AM
I am entering the day short. I’ll be watching VIX and market internals to guage the strength of this rally. If its a simple correction (minute ii of minor 3 perhaps?), I’ll pick at the /ES short between 1070-1085. Stop will be loose. Patient trade. Good luck guys.
Idan Koren
Yesterday was a relatively bearish day longer term but should be regarded as a short term reversal unless we open below $106 on the spy tomorrow morning. The reason why yesterday was bearish was because we went ahead and tested that crucial 1040-1042 level that forms the Head and Shoulders formation (daily chart below). It is however shorter term bullish because we reversed into a relatively nice upday (hence short term reversal). A sell off below $106 will cause the SPY to start selling off hard. I believe the next time we hit 1040, we’ll break through it and thus form that beautiful H&S formation.
How were you suppose to play yesterday? I think i did the best thing. I took half my puts off at 1043, and let the rest ride, with a stop at break even. If i were a short term trader i would be buying 106$ level with a stop right underneath. Longer term traders should look to short at channel (red line) support, now resistance.
Post all your trades! I’m thinking of going long some more BP if it gets hit to around 34$.. i already bought some at 35$+
Hi Idan. I think BP will get all the blame for the spill and will bear all the costs, which could end up being ALOT more than the amount of of the current loss in their market cap, possibly even more than BP can handle in a worst case scenario. RIG has taken a slightly bigger hit, percentage wise, and I think it’s alot less likely they will held be liable for any costs, other than some loss of earnings.
Instead of adding to your BP position, maybe consider buying some RIG. Yesterday’s candle on RIG looks like a potential bottoming hammer, whereas I don’t see that on BP. Just a suggestion…
Well sure didn’t work out well for me.. but i think we are going to get a bounce, the daily looks like a bottoming candle.
————- AKS ——————— Long as of pre-market yesterday I think tis is way oversold and will bounce with the market.
First level of resistance ia 1070 then 1085 and hopefully bacl \kto 1103 before the final plunge which will complete the right shoulder. i wish it would go to 1150 and we would have a classic H+S but they dont always workout that way..
We dont hear anymore from Morris and Jimbho and richard….. hope that they are ok …. anyone know what happened to them?
No clue.. well Jimbho was too childish for this forum, so i stopped him from spamming, but richard and morris probably just took a break or a vacation.
Still holding X form yesterday stop at 41,25 profit ordre at 200ma on the 60min
stop out on a trailingstop at 42,49 profit 4,45%
I bought 2K Suncor yesterday before close at $30.40. I am bullish on land based oil companies and will sell a covered call in the next few days when it moves up. I am also looking to add some gold
Regarding SPX, my best guess is that it may bounce to somewhere between 1100 and 1140 before it sells off after forming the H & S. The biggest worry is debt markets. So far the attention has been focussed on Europe. It may shift to local and state governments here. Most of them have a year end of June 30th and in a few weeks, the market will realize how bad their financial situation is. This is definitely a bear market rally, not a bull market correction
I`m a bit confused as to go short now or wait for a bigger bounce before shorting. Just holding gold for now. Seems like a boring day.
Wholesale inventories 0.4% vs 0.5%.
Playing a possible inverse h&s on the SPX. looking for it to form right shoulder. in on July SPY 107 puts @ 3.84. looking for a drop to 1059-1060(also 38.2 fib from yesterday’s low to today’s high) before moving back up to challenge neckline on 1070 neckline.
stop now set to 3.89 to guarantee profits.
got filled on about 1/3 of my order..thank goodness…moving stops up on remaining contracts to 3.93
got stopped out on the remaining contracts…will look to enter again either short or long depending on price action..
Bought some Jul 32 put on SU.TO.
BMO Capital Markets:
The accompanying breadth data yesterday was a little more mixed though.
On a positive note, volume expanded by nearly 1 billion shares NYSE
Composite volume versus Monday’s data so there was some serious buying
behind yesterday’s rally. However, the ratio of advancing stocks to declining
stocks on the NYSE was a mere 1.5:1, and the ratio of up volume to down
volume was 3:1. Perhaps it was because most of the gains were made in the
last half hour of trading, but we would like to see ratios much more heavily
skewed towards the buy side in order to classify this as anything more than
just a near-term short covering rally. As a result, our expectations have not
changed. There is room for this relief rally to work its way higher in the next
day or two, but will likely only retrace a portion of the losses incurred during
the Friday/Monday sell-off. We continue to recommend building cash
positions on rallies in anticipation of a better entry point for stocks overall
later in Q3 2010.
in FAZ @ 16.33 risking .04
out 1/3 @ 16.45 making my trade risk free including commision.
sold another 1/3 @ 16.50 scalp mode .. raised stop on rest to b/e,, otherwise letting it ride..
out rest @ b/e 16.33
Large cap tech is not doing too well today…
Any thoughts on why UNG is down and any entry suggestions ????
I have always expected it to retest a bit, the 7.80-7.90 level.. i think that’s the real buying opportunity.
If it breaks 8.05.. it’ll fall to 7.80-7.90 in no time. So if you’re in the position, you can either add more, or get stopped loss at 8.02 or 8.03 and buy it back.
Thanks Idan !!
As long as 1080 holds as resistance this market should go back down today.
For lunchtime, I think we will test 1070-1068, but I do think we’ll find support and head higher. And I am currently short.
starting to buy July 107 SPY puts here @ 3.42. Will add more if we hit 1080.
C-looking very strong here…good thing…as my other longer term shorts aren’t doing well…
SPX-treading the 20SMA on the 5 min chart. if the next candle closes below this, i think we could see that backtest to 1070 area
Idan,
are you still in BP or did you get stopped out way above where it is right now?
amazing IV on BP options..i bought a few July 36 Calls when it dropped to 32.5 and I’m only down .02 on each contract..i will take 75% off now feel happy not to have this blow up my P&L
bull flag on the spy?
Thanks for all the posts Idan. They are very helpful. I’m Still holding FAZ (messed up selling yesterday) but I plan on holding. Whole world seems to be looking for upside…I don’t believe it yet….but I’ve been wrong quite a bit.
With world markets in downturns, I can’t see US bucking trend.
I’m prepared to lose more $ but my heart tells me to stay short right now. I do not suggest / advocate following me, but I do enjoy company
Idan – I agree with you … I am thinking one more push to spx 1080-1085 before we roll over …
what do you guys make of bp…could this be a -20% day? wow.
i won’t be surprised…look at the IV on the options…thinking of selling JUN 12.5 puts…this is amazing!
Last time it was this low was Sep 1996…WOW…on the charts there is no support until the 21-22 area.
Could this be capitulation on BP and we could see a bounce before going lower to $22?
that’s what i was thinking. seems very harsh today.
Right through 106 to 105.94 and bounce.
FAZ working towards a 13/ 34 crossover. Not there yet, but appears to be coming soon.
On highest volume of the day (still relatively low volume)
13/34 CROSSOVER? WHAT IS THAT?
Watching moving averages. When the 13 day moving average moves over the 34 day (or I’ve heard different averages used) in theory the short term move should be up. However, that’s only one indicator. For me, at work, it’s so ez to watch by using freestockcharts.com. It updates in real time. Today FAZ crossed over early (34 over 13) and FAZ dropped a few %. In the afternoon, when SPY was dropping, FAZ was working on the crossover I’m watching and it’s had a nice comeback. I also like that the drop was on exceptionally low volume, and the rise in FAZ has much higher volume. My guess, (just a guess) is some of the drop was short covering.
YOu can probably read more about this on other sites. I am really just learning technical analysis, so if there’s anythng I said that’s not correct, any help from other people would be appreciated.
Actually what you said is not incorrect just a different way to watch the moving averages. I just never looked at 13 day MA’s compared to 34 is all. Follow the trend my friend and the trend is down at this point in time. However as everyone knows lock a profit when you can because as you saw yesterday and most of today the market is so manipulated that it can change on a dime at any time. GLTY.
Right through 106 again. This is fierce.
Out for the day.
GLTA.
I think the news from Europe tomorrow will be bullish.
The volume today is significantly less than yesterday.
Volume where exactly? /ES volume is 400,000 less, $DJI volume is 30,000 less…that’s not too significant.
Not trying to be an asshole here, I just think today was a solidly bearish day.
Well that was a crazy day!! I was tempted to add more short positions early in the session but didn’t, and then tempted mid session but didn’t either, rats!! Oh well, at least I did hold all the short I had, can’t get too greedy I guess
Another non confirmation of a rally, with no follow up for yesterday should be a pretty crushing blow to the bulls. Should be, but there’s so much whipsaw action week after week, who knows tomorrow could close 1% up. However I think (and hope) this was a momentum buster for the bulls and now we’ll finally start crashing harder and break 1040 tomorrow. Yep, that will be my prediction, a 2% down day tomorrow across the board. What do you guys think??
Good luck to everybody!
If we break 1040…….We see 1000 tomorrow on the S&P in a 5% down day, possibly worse.
Daniel Shporin,
Thanks for the reply, and that makes sense to me. I’m thinking we’ll see at least one 5% down day before the crash is over, and usually it happens when least expected, so tomorrow would make sense to me. I’m picturing a scenario like this: we open lower like around 1047, chop around, sell off to 1040 which holds, but only rally to like 1048-1050, then drop hard and this time we hit 1040 break through it and close much lower.
I’d love to see it happen in one day, but if it played out over the next 2 days that would be fine too
maybe BP sticks it to the politicians telling them to suspend dividend by buying back shares! LOL…
Yea or maybe BP goes BK when everyone boycots buying their oil and realize what a corrupt company it is. IMHO by the time all the lawsuits bang their ass and the realization of just how much destruction has occurred to the Gulf including wildlife and lost jobs they are done doing business around here for a long time if ever.
unless the administration fines them on a per barrel basis moving forward and have them pay people’s lost income (which should should really be lost income after any addt’l jobs they created with the cleanup), they have enough cash (on hand and cash flow from their expansive worldwide ops). i looked at their 2009 annual report and 1Q financials to see that this company generates a ton of money from operations which are predominantly from those outside the US.
one of my best friends work at COP and he told me yday that BP’s track record on safety is really bad. their internal audit teams suck and are undermanned.
but just like what happened to XOM, they’ll probably survive. and those who really plan to boycott BP should
look at the gas companies and what they’ve done in the past (and currently do).
Last week, Daniel forcasted that SP would go to 1000 this week or next. Woo forcasted yeserday if market down, SP could drop to 1004. Idan showed today that potential drop to 1020. Craig’s EW analysis also predicted a drop before a small bounce. When 4 experinced analysts had the similar forcast, chance for market go down will be pretty high.
Hope we’re all right
.
Joe – I traded the last four days using your turn dates and did very well. Thank you a bunch, I hope you will continue to keep posting these dates for us. Thanks again. GLT
I’m short 500 shares of Transocean at 45.69 from yesterday.
Gonna ride this one down.
i got sucked into buying bp today and am down 2 bucks on the trade i think what i will do is average down a little further if the stock falls and sell june covered calls the premiums are high.