Woo:
12:45 pm
SPX 1 month:
If we drop we could see a move towards 1004. We almost got a perfect bounce off the 1043 projection retrace. Next time we head below the 50ma and trend line around 1050-1051, will be a good opportunity to short the market. If 1042-1043 breaks then we should see a very healthy drop.
This also coincides with the 20 year SPX chart. Here it is zoomed.
Idan Koren
12:37pm
The market has to break down below the 20 SMA 10 minute in order for the selling to accelerate. Right now it just looks like a backtest of a possible inverse H&S formation on the 5 minute $SPY.
12:10pm
SPY 10min hits descending blue resistance, and will now potentially be playing around in a triangle before it breaks out (to retest 107.40-107.60) or breaks down the 104 level to begin a new bear market:
11:41am
Buying some $BP as it is hitting a longer term double bottom on the daily charts… i have about 1000 shares at 35.15, with a stop at 33.70.
11:34am
And the SPY hits the 50% retrace or 105 level + hitting a double bottom at 104+. A break of the low today will be the end of the rally (H&S Formation). I do expect 104 to be a strong support and won’t break so easily, a few bounces are expected:
CRAIG | 12:30am
Sleepless in Boston. Can’t stop looking at charts.
hi..
sorry i don’t know charts and waves, so are you saying we should bounce from here..or continue downward towards 1040 and possibily breaking 1040 before a rebound.
would you mind giving some numbers and targets..
many thanks
adding more faz
hi craig. do you take into consideration the /ES action into your wave counts? reason i’m asking is that /ES touched 1045 overnight which corresponds to about 1041-1042 on the SPX. coincidentally, that’s where your submin (v) and min wave ends (a) accdg. to your chart.
thanks!
When counting, I’ve had more success ignoring the overnight futures contract.
Does anybody know if you can buy any VIX ETF’s (or similar)? Thanks in advance. Where is everybody? For a bearish board, this place should be jumpin.
VXX is the ETF..and now trades with options…
thank you very much!
major indices dangerously inching towards the 5/25 low…i bet there are a lot of stop loss orders right beneath that which could cause a big slide…however, i agree with craig’s chart where we could see a brief bounce before breaking it on the 3rd touch
I would like another bounce. Got stuck on phone so I missed loading up on more FAZ. Now up over 7% (been accumulating FAZ for 3 days) and feeling good about the trade.
good move…i’ve been buying SPY Put spreads on any bump higher…sold 1/2 when we hit 1041 on the /ES…looks like the temp. move higher could be upon us…if 1050 on the /ES cannot be broken, i’d say we see 1040 being breached today..otherwise, i would totally rely on craig’s chart.
MrTopStep (who works in the S&P Futures Pit) just tweeted 30 minutes ago: ESM SPM are LOADED with sell stops under 1139.00 down to 1134.00 so far we have a total of 1.1mil minis traded
BTW, FAZ volume this AM much higher than prior days. Working on 5th green bar in a row on 15 min chart.
Added another 200 shares FAZ @ 17.77.
———— AKS ————– Just picked up a position @ $12.53 for a swing trade I think a possible bounce off 104.50 is possible.
I am still not quite sure if 1040 will be broken today or not. My cycles point to a trend change June 8 – 9 th.
A break and immediate reversal would be the best for a multi week up to side consolidation.
Yeah.. i don’t think 1040 is going to be broken so easily.
What is everyone buying or selling todya?
AKS – This morning for a swing trade !! The Euro poped and the dollar dropped it’s good for commodities and AKS was way oversold IMO…
Yeah might be right… still today’s pop in aks is not that great… i’m buying BP on it being oversold.. but i’m already down, i’ll buy some more at around 34… with a stop right at 33.70.
got a limit order to buy some KOG at 3.05 and I wanted to buy AAPL at 248, but didnt press submit and left my order hanging (bummer). Looking to cover BP short soon and lock in 10% gain
X long at 40,68
still holding TZA from Friday at 7 $$$ up 19 % nice
I got 6000 shares of TZA at $6.66.
Pipe dream is to sell at $66.66..
took some of at 8,45
Posted an update above. Good morning/afternoon. =)
let’s try some SPY puts.
SPY Puts July 105 @ 4.12
great timing..what is your stop loss level on the SPY?
Yeah it worked out nicely. I posted above that I was looking for one more break of the trend line and 50ma on the 1 month chart.
Currently raising my stops to profit at 4.25. Hoping we just keep dropping to new daily lows though.
in AAPL @247.5
Holy sheep dip. I just came back from a 10 minute meeting and somebody apparently pooped in the SPY pool. Funny, with bloomberg radio in the background, they make it seem like the downtrend is over.
I’d like to see some resistance here at the 1048 level and then a further drop. If not, I’ll probably just stop out for a small profit.
good times. =)
if we can break into new daily lows again, i’ll raise stops one more time to a little above 1043.
IWM drop 1.7%, market is pretty weak.
Bloomberg Radio: “US Stocks are little changed”. True, but it feels like an understatement. GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR bear meat.
cmon, buy this dip, I dare you.
(IN JEST)
(wish I bought that dip, lol)
market hit resistance and bounced. Short term RSI was a bit oversold…
might stop out here. last thing i want to see is a daily wedge.
Another oil leak has been found on another separate rig in the Gulf of Mexico approx 100 miles from the BP rig. Evidentially a rig that was damaged by Hurricanne Ike. Rut ro!
I personally think this is a great opportunity for trojan or durex to create the ultimate condom and gain some great advertising.
slogan can be something like….”protecting the public…and the privates.”
or….”good for any environment”
or
-”protection you from disasters”
-”ours pay high dividends too…when used properly”
nice haha.
how about. “protects against big oil”
lol…in conjunction with your last post–”BIG or SMALL…oil, we can help”
Texas had a natural gas … explode yesterday, Pa had an evacuation last week due to leaking nat gas. You almost dont even hear about these things.
looks like my stop above 1048 was sitting in the right place. hopefully now that the RSI has a bit more room, it dips for real.
Ahhh third hit already! I can’t wait for the suspense!
1048 also neckline of possible inverse h&s on the 5 min.
oh well. stopped out at 4.25 haha.
4.12-4.25 profit. I’ll look for the next opportunity under the daily lows.
i guess i can’t complain haha. Market slightly above the trend line and 50ma now.
below 1048 is probably the better place to short from this point forward.
i’ll probably sit out the rest of the day. the H&S that jdub mentioned could play out. We’re above a trend line and 50ma, bounced off a long term 20 year trend line at the lows. I guess I can get lunch at a normal hour today.
what are you guys expecting for tomorrow? Given that we have the Fed testimony tomorrow we should see some big moves in either direction….
I think dow will be up over 100 pts today at 4 pm .
Thinking about buying TZA at the days end around 8ish
wow look at that
Just sold my only long position SSO at $34.03 for A $300 profit. All short once again. Hey Kenjisan, did you get out of your UCO?
i’m holding uco…looks like oil is gaining a little strength on decline of inventory expectations
Its looking like 1055 on the S&P is holding as resistance. If it touches one more time and fails, I may add to my short positions, possibly with SDS or SH.
Bought GS Call Spreads July 145-150 for 1,45 !
Market is oscillating between 1044/46 and 1055/57. We have both levels being hit about 4 times today. My guess is that 1040 may crack later on this afternoon – but it will be a weak breakout and that it will come back and test 1040 and may even go over it. I am not seeing too many sellers the last few days.
Interesting action. I’d love to see the S&P close below 1055.
However its looking very doubtful at the moment
Why would the NAZ not be following the rest of the market? That’s a sign of weakness and risk avoidance. I bought some SU.TO calls earlier considering to dump them for a scalp.
Agreed, sounds like a good play.
I think the naz was down so big this morning because they got a ton of downgrades this morning on earnings expectations because of the weakening earnings
Okay, I’ll take S&P closing below 1060, jut let me have that and I’ll be happy
Following Idan, sorta late, but bought some BP @ 34.63
I closed my short position on BP @36.7, locked in an 8% gain
sorry I meant 34.6
Somewhat bad day for this bear, but glad to be holding all short positions going into tomorrow! Good luck to everybody, and see you tomorrow!
Thursday should be more interesting considering more News from Europe
This is for thursday not tomorrow:
BOE Announcement
7:00 AM ET
ECB Announcement
7:45 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Also on Thurs. will be Spain 3 yr debt auction…
For tomorrow:
UK-10 yr
Portugal- 3 and 10 yr
I must say,, not too impressed with downside pressure today.. Volume was better on this up day..
I agree. There was no downside pressure. I bought 2000 of Suncor (SU) at $30.40 before the close when SPX broke out of 1057 resistance. I will either sell it tomorrow or sell a covered call. I like the stock as land based oil companies should trade at a premium long term. Cost of extracting offshore oil will be going up.