Idan Koren
12:42pm
I think everybody practically sees this, but i’ll show it to you anyway. Here’s a 60 min of the $SPY and as you can see we had an inverse H&S formation (if you take away afterhours action) and we broke out of the 38.2% retrace of the move from july 09 to the highs, which happend to be the neckline. A move to the 112.50 line is possible:
Daniel Shporin
9:10AM
I’m doing nothing for now. I want to see the S&P rally to 1100-1120, at which point I’ll let you guys know where I’ll start building a short position.
Idan Koren
4:38am
Markets bounce vigurously off the channel support once again (futures) and china confirms that it supports the euro for its reserves.
12:01am
We hit 106.40 on the $SPY (afterhours) like i predicted, tomorrow we’re going to have to see if we break the channel downwards again… if we do, i do expect a massive move lower:
My advice would be to sell long positions at the open. If your brave you might also consider buying short positions at the open as well. My feeling is the markets close substantially lower than they open today.
The /ES backtested a defined down channel with bottom hits on 5/14 & 5/20 (upper hits 5/18 & 5/24). Coincidentally, that backtest hit on the channel was also the 61.8 fib from Tues lows to yesterday’s high. Now trying to complete that inverse h&s with neckline @ 1090 level. Let’s see if initial claims will do the trick. I can also see the possibility of breaking this neckline if the European markets close on/near their highs. Then again, yesterday’s playbook could be repeated…time, price action and volume will be the tell tale signs…GL to everyone!
AAII Sentiment Survey: The historical average for bearish sentiment is 30% and we are far above it right now.
Part of the reason for the gap up is that China is saying that they are not selling Euros..
Let’s see what the GDP report in 10 minutes is..
Q1 GDP (second estimate) +3.0% vs +3.3% consensus, prior +3.2%
Initial Claims 460K vs 455K consensus, prior revised to 474K from 471K
Continuing Claims falls to 4.607 mln from 4.656 mln
I was doing some research yesterday and read something very interesting on the relationship between the NYSE McClellan Oscillator($NYMO) & the NYSE composite index ($NYA) …writer mentioned that the $NYMO tends to record its lowest reading right before the bottom of recent price action. Recent low on the $NYMO for now was last Thurs (5/20), recent low on the $NYA on Tues. 5/25. We could have very well put in a temporary bottom.
For those interested, check this out and take note of how this occurred back in Feb. and March of last year…
BP saying blocked leak….unconfirmed but breaking
BP The “Top Kill” procedure successfully blocks oil leak – LA Times
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-top-kill-works-20100528,0,4282960.story
Look at live picture! They didn’t block sheet the oil is still gushing just has it has for the last month. This one they can’t manipulate. By the time they get this fixed there will be oil all over the world.
Pre market action confirms this…BP @ 45
Dollar strong since gap low…
I’m in TZA @ 7.05.. stop at breakeven
sold 1/3 @ 7.16
raising stop on rest to break even..
out at b/e
The DAX keeps hitting 5900 and then getting rejected…watching this for some possible insight into our markets…
not a good close for the DAX
error on my part…i thought they also close @ 4…
strong finish
man…price action on V stinks…in 15 mins after the open, gap was filled…now trying to rally back up…
Yesterdays high is huge resistance.. If we brake it,, I’m long…
also neckline on an inverse h&s…
Huge volume on financials..
in FAS @ 24.38
sold 1/3 @ 24.68
Still think we are going higher,, but,, taking profits along the way is smart,, that way I make my trades considering my stops and broker fee,, risk free…
sold rest @ 24.56
falling back below 1090 would be really bad for the bulls
Waiting to buy TZA at 8.87 10 shares order in
10K shares LOL
I really dont trust this move up , however They can just let it run until we see S&P higher than 1100 to bring complacency into this market again …. so frustrating………………….
You can buy TZA for 7.00 right now. ????
almost a reverse cup and handle on the daily for TZA
SPY 50% of high & low @ 109.37.. very close to vwap as well
Looking to re enter long there..
Perhaps the 109.40 print was enough..
I don’t like the action.. looking for shorts now..
in TZA @ 7.03
out @ 7 -.03
In fas @ 24.60 risking .07
raising stop to break even
out b/e frustrating
I’m not playing this right.. I have to take profits quicker..
looks like it’s just trading within a .25-.30 range
as i said,
An inverse head & shoulders pattern is setting up on the 15-minute chart of the S&P 500. Once the right shoulder completes, I expect the advance to resume to form a large right shoulder on the daily chart. My target zone is 1140-1150.
My strategy is simple, sell resistance (the April high), and buy support. That is why I’ve been taking profits. 5000 SSO
At what level will you abandon the H&S formation? Break below 1090 or 1074 or 1064?
Wow that was a good call on TZA . I even surprised myself by getting the lowest print so far
The Inverse H&S formation neckline is being retested as support now, potentially a good place to go long.
Everyone, something I noticed as I was watching the European markets…take a look at the DAX and FTSE action today…very much like price action today in the SPX, DJIA, and NDX. Only thing somewhat bucking the trend is the R2000 (and prob why TZA is down a lot more vs. the market). Also notice on the DAX and FTSE that the intraday range broke to the downside between the hours of 145-215 (earlier on the FTSE vs DAX) but it turned out the be a fake move to the downside…be careful and keep tight stops…
The range rules!!!
Tomorrow:
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET
Idan – what moving averages do you use on your charts – you seems to have 4-5 lines on the chart
First time seeing you on LS – looks great
20, 50, 200 SMAs only.
Anyone playing FAS/FAZ….RIFIN is looking like a lower move is coming. EUR/USD also showing some weird action. Yesterday and today’s high are EXACTLY the same. I’m looking for a touch of 720 on the RIFIN by mid next week. If it does move higher the 808-811 level is where it will form a right shoulder and well……..
out of TZA at B/E . this sux as i should have been more disciplined and taken my profits
today just looked too bullish for me to go short… i cannot go short until the 111.5-112 level.
You are not alone on that one..
SPY R2 110.45 and 200 ma 110.64
This is like teaching a baby how to walk….
I heard that being long in this market is like picking pennies in front of a buldoser
I’ll definetely be shorting if we get to the 200 today
That sounds like a familiar K phrase
Any thoughts on oil. I bought last week Friday and I’m up 10% and not sure if it will keep going. I may just sell today and wait for a few days to go short the market
I think it might have some more upside, looking at it on the charts now.
Thank you Idan. Any idea of what your target would be?
Idan – can you share what your tgts would be on USO – I have 34.50 as one … but i think you mentioned you saw it going higher …
35.50 is my target..
In TZA @ 6.79.. Could not resist.. risking 2 cents
i wait for 6,7
Took 1/2 off @ 6.81
It’s now a risk free trade… If I get stopped out,, might enter FAS
I call close on SP500 at 1100
Sold my POT that I bought on 5/19 at 99.75 for a whopping $7 profit
man i was wrong, we closed at 1103
Close enough
I’ll be dumping my QQQQ Jul calls at the close. I have other stock positions to participate in more upside IF it comes.
Sold.
guys and gals–if you want insight into market price action, just look at the CAC, FTSE and DAX….used it the past 3 days for great gains….all closed above 3% and that told me that we had more to go…i have only done it since yday after i noticed it the other day….will watch closely tomorrow again…
sorry for the conflicting statements…i’m in manila right now and having a 12 hour difference ain’t fun when you do stuff during the day and trade at night…
CAC, FTSE & DAX—past 3 days of similar price action to SPX. too bad i only noticed it yday…a profit is a profit:)
I don’t know if I can do this again tomorrow and being a Friday before a long weekend, I might just catch up on some sleep…
starting to scale in on some July VIX option spreads here…
sorry guys. i’ve been sick the last two days, so i haven’t been posting intraday and have only been posting at night in the Leveraged ETF Subscription portion.
This was yesterday’s analysis into today (posted about 7:30 pm yesterday): “The 1 year looks to be holding nicely. The main goal at the moment for the bulls is to get above that 200ma at 1103.9. I wouldn’t be surprised if we tested that area into tomorrow. Looking at this chart changes the head and shoulder targets slightly to around 1100, which is near the 200ma. At that point I may just sit out of the market for 1-2 days to see where the market is heading.
Also watch that RSI. We’re very near the two trend lines north of here, and a breakout could mean a significant rise. This would also get us that rise to 1100s.”
Here’s a link to the chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p03896657851&a=181956106
You can see the rise towards the 200ma and you also can see the RSI double trend line break on the way up north. 1103 =) good times. gg
Nice to hear from you
.. Hope u get better soon..
thanks for popping in Woo! Please don’t tell what should have stayed in Vegas came along with you when you got back…lol….Get well soon!
lol. that was pretty good. hahaha.
Even though Woo has been sick 2 out of my 3 days as a subscriber he has helped me profit over 1k. The 1k could have been more but I got out early on a couple of things. So thank you Mr. Woo. Now suck it up and go look at some charts!
Thanks
good times =)
I have to go houseboating this weekend near Napa Valley. Have a business trip June 2-4 in Connecticut also. This month is going to be the end of me.
SPX yesterday 1.9 Billon today 1.2 Billion that’s a 700 mil difference
We close right under the 200. Anybody swinging ? hahaha not me…
3 day weekend coming.. expect low volume tomorrow…
I’m not holding anything into tomorrow. Market hit the point I was looking for, and as I wrote, I’m going to see where the market opens before taking any positions on index, ETF, or individual stocks. Good luck!
Not holding anything. Any positions will be established Monday night at the earliest.
I’m holding my UNG long trade, that’s about it.
Brian Shannon eod video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3Epg6KMOfE&playnext_from=TL&videos=HQk18t27a6k
Nice action for the bulls today! did not see davecash or goingtoretiresomeday today….
Here I am Jon, nice to see you! Seems some bullish guys come out on good days and some bearish on bad days, so its nice to see the bulls back today! I come out anytime I’m around, which is just occasionally as I have a full time job.
So yeah, I got roasted today. A friend told me he had a strange feeling we would burn off the short term oversold conditions today, but I didn’t believe him. Ouch!! In any case, I’m still holding all my shorts, still up a bit but not nearly as much as 24 hours ago. Still feeling good about being short this market, and glad to see we couldn’t close much higher than the 200 day MA on the major indexes. Still feeling very confident going short into tyomorrow.
Good luck to everybody!!
Nice to see you too…as long as we all make money we should be alright. I was fried on the way down and it hurts
did not sell so I am gaining some back. Gotta leave my ego at the door while trading!
take care
Thanks my friend, I hope we can both do well, all of us need some extra cash nowadays, and we’re trying to earn some in an honest way, its pretty frustrating sometimes, but I believe we can do it, and this board can help us.
Take care, and good luck tomorrow:)
Very very very interesting…Upcoming-Crash.mp4 K. Denniger Vid
Ride it the 1140-1150 and watch it crash?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hM79IhkbbAg