3:30pm
Here’s an $SPY chart to give you a better understanding of where we stand (as far as the channel goes) and where we bounced to ( as far as fibs go from July 2009 low to the highs):|
3:26pm
And we got ourselves a breakdown.. $GOOG down, $AMZN fell broke down the 123.40 level, and the $SPY is going to be heading towards the 106.40 levels.
3:23pm
SPY is going to be testing the 107.75-107.65 (1075 on SPX) levels, which are going to be really hard to break, once broken I believe we shoot down all the way to the channel. This is the last place for a bull support:
Idan will be LIVE TRADING at 1:00pm EST today, like everyday!
All Chatting will occur on http://social.focalequity.com
Idan Koren
2:08pm
Still looking to trade AAPL both long at 251, or short upon break of ascending 5 minute support line
11:00 AM
Tze
Why is Robert Prechter Correct?
Hope many of you saw Robert’s interview last night. Although Robert did not publicly specify a target for the market, he did say that the market will go much much lower. Even if you don’t know anything about Elliot Wave, it is really easy to see the massive and disturbing Head and Shoulders pattern that has formed on the DOW and other major indices over the last 20 years or so.
One thing that Robert did mention is he encouraged people to stay in cash and avoid nearly all financial instruments. Although that advice is good for non-traders, it is not, in our opinion sound for traders. In fact, FocalEquity’s recommendation is to encourage people who can afford to trade and speculate to actively do so because opportunities will be abundant for the next several years as the long bear market unfolds.
Idan constantly mention about our service Alerts&Analytics. To illustrate the kind of opportunities that exist in this market, we would like to now officially post the YTD performance of all of our closed positions. We currently only have 2 open positions. Our service began on March 16th of this year. So far, our portfolio has delivered very good performance.
Durable Goods for April: Prior -1.2% Expected 1.3% Actual 2.9% Durable Goods Ex-Trans: Prior 3.5% Expected 0.5% Actual -1%
———— TBT ———– In @$38.99 for a swing trade looks like a reversal candle in TLT yesterday…
You know whats funny alot of people think that this whole downtrend was caused by the Euro and Greece..Nope !!! Say what you want about T/A but this whole down move was technical one exacerbated by some fundamental issues…Today the Euro is just as bad if not worse than yesterday but we are up and you know why ??? Because we needed to correct in order for stock prices to become cheap enough where investors say ok i am still worried about the Euro but not enough to not buy AKS at $13.00 at $22.00 it’s a risk but not at $13.00..You see my point, we all have a price and risk reward point where we gauge risk.I am in the camp that a cheaper euro is good for the European economy just like it is for the China and the US…I think we will rally up to 1150 form that right shoulder and come back down and i do believe that the fundamentals show up in the technicals before the big moves
I hear you. The lower Euro is good for their economy if they are exporting but if they are a net importer then it doesn`t do much for them. So it depends on which country in the Euro zone you`d be thinking of. Lower Euro also devalues the debt levels which is the only way to get out of a massive debt similar to what the US has. The big BUT is if they can withstand the debt levels before they can pay it all out.
Optic are you looking to buy TZA soon?
i bought mine back at 7,10 after sold yesterday at 8,32 fore a little swing sell ordre at 7,68
Not really.. I’m just watching now.. EVERYBODY expects this to rally,, so,, I am naturaly sceptical.. Not too impressed with this morning’s action… & as they say,, from failed moves come fast moves… But,,,,,,, it doesn’t mean I’m going to start shorting..
If it starts breaking down,,, I’ll watch the volume,, and together with places of support etc.. we’ll see what happens… Volume is low,, and it’s a holiday weekend coming,, when the volume is low,, this market tends to float… Alot of factors… Not even sure if I’ll take a trade today… If this develops into a sideways trend that can last god knows how long,, it doesn’t match my trading style… let’s see..
I think this move higher might still have some legs… we can still move to the daily 200 SMA.. that might be a nice target to going short.
sure is quiet here…
U.S. new-home sales rose 14.8% in April to their highest level since May 2008, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. The increase in new-home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000 was well above the 425,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. New-home sales in March were revised to a 439,000 level compared with the previous estimate of 411,000. New-home sales are up 47.8% compared with a year ago. The months’ supply of homes on the market fell to 5.0 months in April from 6.2 months in March. Median sales prices have fallen 9.5% in the past year to $198,400
People starting the long weekend extra early !!!!
Bondholders downgrade GS and BNP?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2XMEjSjyZbc&pos=4
Idan…..here we are at $18 on SLV that you talked about yesterday. Amazing how fast some of this stuff is moving. I’m still holding my 2K shares from several weeks back. May lighten up the load around this level.
Sounds good, you got this doing great.
I do not see a big selloff the rest of this week and into next due to the fact that we will see lower volume which leads to slow grinds up and the PPT and US gov will not allow this market to instill fear right before a 3 day holiday where they want the US consumer to spend..This is where IMO T/A becomes very valuable just watch for next resistance points and see if we confirm above them or if we fail and pullback..My first target on the S&P is 1125 then 1150 but i do not think it goes any higher because i do feel that the H+S pattern on the weekly SPY chart may play out..
Agreed. Right now, I’d only sell a breakdown of yesterday’s low, but I think we are headed to 1100-1120 first.
Here is what BMO Capital Markets are saying today:
Our expectations for the major averages are an oversold bounce back up to their declining 50-day moving averages (TSX: 12,000, S&P 500: 1170) similar to what
occurred after the panic sell-off of May 6-7. However, the damage that has occurred in our weekly models suggest we are very likely in the early stages of a
more pronounced intermediate-term correction that could stretch well into the third quarter of this year. As such, we recommend using this oversold bounce as an
opportunity to lighten up in trading positions with the intention of looking for a better entry point later in the Summer.
Good stuff thanks !!!!
In TZA @ 7.23 risking .04 let’s see what happens
out 1/3 @ 7.33
out of rest at break even.. not sure where this is going..
It’s sorta confusing, today i see tech not performing as well as it should be…
SPY on the 5 ma at the moment
Looks like a bottoming candle could bounce here…
SPY & XLF losing 5 ma
right shoulder of an inverse h&s possibly forming on the SPX 30 min. more pullback possibly down to 1070-1065 (38 and 50 fib from yday’s low) could be coming our way before a rise to the 1090ish neckline
signs that trend is up for now…bounce @ the 1078 is juts 23.6% fib from yday’s low…should be heading towards the neckline @ 1090…may just rest there for the remainder of the day to confuse the heck out of everyone…
There’s a right shoulder of the SPX forming on the daily too.
Who’s in the opinion that goldman sachs is done with it’s up trend?
i don’t know idan…i still see a huge gap to be filled about the mid 150′s on a daily…
i’m sure it doesn’t have to fill now, but don’t all gaps get filled eventually?
thx
btw..would you short LVS at the 23 mark???
Maybe 22.85, on a necktie of the daily moving averages..
You could be right Idan looks like profit taking with GS and AKS as well as S..All were up big yesterday and today down on low volume..
The SPX might have a bigger push higher, but i’m not sure if some the individual stocks will.
it made a huge up engulfing on the daily and naturally has to retrace into yesterdays action…i would think it’s trying to trap some longs that got in late yesterday and getting scared so might upload only to ramp up tomorrow and the next few days…but most engulfing candles get some sort of move in the same direction, no??
Back to green i think the market will go higher into the close..JMO
What are you trading?
Idan, SP is now back to the channel you draw yesterday. Do you expect it will hit 1150 or high?
I can’t wait to hear Idans point of view but i think we could rally up to that 1150 area and for the right shoulder and come down and go possibly below the 1040 neckline and retest the March 09 lows.
That is only a possibility of course…But take a look at the weekly SPY chart we are setting a huge H+S pattern and right now we could be setting up that right shoulder…JMO
Down we go!
In my opinion guys what you see is what you get the next few days barring any geo political news..A low volume slow grind sideways to up..
I think a big sell off is coming, and we close flat or in the red.
What makes you say that ????
The fact that we’re still be low the 200 MA on all 3 indexes and we won’t break resistance in my opinion. Also the fact that there was absolutely no basis for the rally yesterday except to be a bull trap in my opinion.
But the lack of volume is going to make it tough to sell off unless it picks up which it may !!! It will be interesting to see but i think we may actually rally into the close !!!!
Davecash,
You might be right by the time the bell comes my friend, but as of now here’s the sell off I mentioned.
The best lesson the market has taught me these past few day is about market environment. In the past,, I think I’ve lost more money playing Chop,, than holding on to a lossing position… I don’t play with chop… it chop chop chops me up.
This market could go sideways for a while……. Until I see some more conviction in either direction,,, I’m catching up on my reading.
Reading anything interesting oPtIC ???
Always.. I have so much to read… Never ending really.. Here’s a few..
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/trading-markets/trading-101/reading-the-tape-with-gman-how-to-read-the-tape/?p=1501/
make sure to watch the 3 videos at the bottom of the article..
This guy has a futures trading technique that is pretty awesome:
http://www.screencast.com/users/FuturesTrader71/folders/Webinars
I think a downward break of 1075 will be a big break for the bears, and I think its coming in the next 15-30 minutes. Could be wrong of course.
Im on the phone with the PPT right now but they are not answering..
Yep, I think they’ve been playing some hookey from work lately, just for laughs and a change of pace. lol!
Maybe coz Geithner can’t be reached…had too much fun across the pond…
It seems they may have awoken from a short nap!
The next 20 minutes will be very interesting, as will the next 50 minutes. I think if we break 1075 going downward then we close at near 1070.
It seems like we’re in a range between 1077-1080. If 1077 breaks down lookout below.
Question. In the past, it seemed that SLV or GLD would provide a decent hedge against long equity positions. However, of late, that doesn’t seem to be the case. I’m sitting on 2K shares of SLV and I’m concerned about my long exposure at this point, but looking to unload my them on any rally over the next few days. Any thoughts on how I might protect against a surprise drop before I can unload my longs?
Consider picking up some puts on GLD or SLV for some downside protection. I am very long in both GLD and SLV also.
I could be way off base with this, but according to my own T/A i am seeing a 20-30% jump in price in the near term.(1-4 weeks) My targets are $24 for slv and $145 for gld. ( ya i know, dream on!) lol. we’ll see!!
What a bunch of rat bastards that run this market. Makes me want to puke most days!
Here we go!!
A close below 10k on the DOW is big for the bears! Not sure if we’ll see it today though.
Yep, serious battle for 10k. PPT told to maintain 10k at all costs, at least for the time being!
One more drop coming I think.
was thinking that too but looks like the 50 fib from yesterday’s low was hit…should end around here or higher
Brian Shannon in 10 minutes
http://www.stocktwits.tv
There we go!
inverse h&s with neckline still at 1090 now looking more symmetrical…attention to details…lol
Nice finish. Non confirmation of yesterday’s late day rally. Makes me think the 14 month bear market rally is essentially done!
Nice call goingtoretireinone day and you did it while we were still green…Kudos
Davecash77,
Much appreciated my friend! Just had a strong feeling about it, but often my string feelings are wrong, so who knows. It was a very important day for bears and a crushing day for bulls. 1075 now looks to be very strong resistance, and breaking 10k on the DOW was very big too. Possibly even more important was huge volume on the breakdown! Got a feeling we go down tomorrow and Friday as well.
It should be interesting the next 2 days for sure. We need to break the channel of 105.50 to really fall out of bed so we will have to see how far we gap down tomorrow and watch that level !!! Peace
Davecash77,
Yep, agreed 100%. I think when we break down below that level the flood gates will open and we could start falling very very hard and very very fast! I have a feeling we’ll see that happen tomorrow or Friday. You never know though, its going to be exciting, volatile, and crazy whatever happens, that;’s for sure.
Have a good night my friend, catch you tomorrow
You too goingtoretireoneday i enjoyed the chat
An inverse head & shoulders pattern is setting up on the 15-minute chart of the S&P 500. Once the right shoulder completes, I expect the advance to resume to form a large right shoulder on the daily chart. My target zone is 1140-1150.
Can’t see us getting back to those levels for a long, long time. I could of course be wrong however.
let’s see if the PPT can work their magic on the /ES overnight hours. not looking good right now…