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You can ask him questions by blogging on the intraday commentary.
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12:43pm
UNG showing signs of a breakout for the first time in years. Take a look at my 120 minute chart, you can see that it has broken out of horizontal and descending resistance. The next level to really breakout of is the 7.70 level, which is the former high. If it can do that, it’s on track to making higher highs and higher lows:
12:35pm
You can see very clearly on the SPY daily how we touched the 50 SMA daily yesterday and then fell back down. Now that resistance would not be as strong, but there is another resistance 1 point above that, and that’s the red ascending resistance (which use to be support). Both the 50 SMA and this line can still serve some strong resistance, and if we wait long enough, these might coincide with the 108.40 H&S neckline retest:
12:32pm
There’s a clear triangle formation forming on the 10 minute SPY, this is a relatively bullish pattern coming after a rally of 4%. Here’s what I see:
12:29pm
This is what i have for my GS 10 minute chart. You can see that we finally broke out of the descending resistance (in blue) that we had. And we also sort of broke back into the purple ascending channel, but i’m not sure if it’s going to hold, yet. This is possibly a buying opportunity with a close stop.
12:26pm
AMZN is one of the stocks that was really weak last week, but this week it’s coming out a little stronger as it is forming an inverse H&S formation on the 30/60 minute, with a neckline break all the way up at the 132.40-133 range or so take a look at my chart:
The neutral consolidation continues. Futures (ES) went down to the same level they went dwon the night before (1140) and bounced up to 1156. Currently we are about where we closed. Here is a futures marked chart from tradingpoints http://chart.ly/dg64pg
What is consolidation? IMO between SPY 118.50 & 113. For the upside a close above the 50 sma on the daily would get me to START leaning bullish. A close above the 20 sma, definetely. On the downside a close below the 200 sma on the daily I would Start leaning bearish. Getting below the february low. definetely.
IMO this is not a good swing trading market due to the uncertainty for near term direction. Even intra day trading is hard. The fact is that the market doesn’t have to provide us with good trading oportunities. Great lesson to know. No position is the best position until we resolve this and we now we get to practise our patience.
I’m personally taking this time to further my trading education. Working on mastering what Idan mentioned a few days ago about Fib retracement targets. I know Woo uses this constantly. This is where you put the different fib percentages on support lines and the 0% which has not been reached is the target. Want to compare that technique with fib extensions (161.8% etc..).
Anyways,, here are the different sectors ETF’s copied from weekly TA’s blog.
$XLB (Basic Materials)– trapped between the 200-day/100-day SMA’s (31.89/33.03). Current two-day range is between 32.14-32.70.
$XLV (Health Care)– trapped between the 200-day/50-day SMA’s (30.14/31.64). Current two-day range is between 30.24-30.83.
$XLP (Consumer staples)– trapped between the 100-day/20-day/50-day SMAs (27.12/27.73/27.74). Current two-day range is between 27.27-27.69.
$XLI (Industrial Goods)– trapped between the 20-day/50-day SMA’s (32.28/31.38) . Current two-day range is between 31.27-32.12. Positive ID on doji string.
$XLK (Technology)– trapped between the 50-day/200-day SMA’s (23.11/21.64). Also, major test of the 100-day MA at 22.58. Current two-day range is between 22.49-23.00.
$XLY (Consumer discretionaries) – trapped between the 20-day/50-day SMA’s (34.61/33.42). Current two-day range is between 33.42-34.35.
$XLU (Utilities)– trapped between all four SMA’s (20, 50, 100, 200) with heavy emphasis on direct testing of the 20-day/50-day/100-day SMA’s (30.14/29.95/29.96). Current two-day range is between 29.63-30.38.
$XLF (Financials)– trapped between the 50-day/100-day SMA’s (15.99/15.22). Above halfway point. Current two-day range is between 15.67-16.13.
$XLE (Energy)– trapped between the 100-day/200-day SMA’s (57.73/55.90). Also forming doji string. Current two-day range is between 56.50-57.83.
Tomorrow we have unemployment and on friday Retail sales, Consumer sentiment and Industrial production.
GL
Optic / Idan – can you share which video you shared this fib technique on …
I think it was either monday’s or friday’s video.. http://www.livestream.com/focalequity
But it was pretty much what I described here. You put the diffrent retracements on places where there has been support /resistance.. He took the GLD chart. Take the daily out,, put the 100% @ 102.5, 61.8 @ 111, 50% @ 114, 38.2 @ 117,, then,, where is the 0% ? around 125,, so that is the target..
Woo is the one I have seen using this constantly. Perhaps he can give you a better explanation.
Yeah i think optic described it pretty well… I think what you have to do is basically set your first point at the last big low, then take your second point and play around with it until resistances and supports are found. The target should be obviously higher or at where the current high is.
You should repeat this procedure with other lows, and you’ll see the fibs line up. That means you got the target correct.
Thanks Idan – will try this … are the videos on livestream archived ? (so we can watch in the evening ?
yes they are, http://www.livestream.com/focalequity should have them
ditto, fibs is one area of TA i’m not well versed in…. on of the reasons i started to frequent this site
UXG (gold) at mayor resistance/support line on the daily.
Watching at the open:
KERX
SNV
VG
GBG
scratch GBG.. risk reward not there for me..
Add
AXTI
AERG
JMBA
in VG @ 1.89 risking .03
out.. chopped up.. -.03
3 out of 4 stocks follow the market… The market’s undesided 3 out of 4 undesided.. impossible envitonment
AAPL and GS doing well this morning
Any thoughts on USO – is this trading in a triangle ?
in ARNA @ 3.42
ARNA looks like a great play, would have bought it at 3.35 though.. 3.42 looks like a missed trade to me.
Yeah I stopped out at 3.39.. not a good enviourment for break outs imo…
http://chart.ly/w4e434
yeah i agree with that chart for sure.
Any thoughts on USO ?
short at 37.50, buy at 35.50 for now.. otherwise it’s too tough to trade.
Look at the SPY from May 4 to today’s high – have we just formed an inv H&S ?
Tgt would be 124 if we broke the neckline :O
Can’t believe I missed PACR.. My alarm went off,, but too busy with other crappy stocks..
Question for Fritz.
I don’t post much here but i do follow the trading and commentary quite a bit. What “data” was it that you saw back in March that makes you think the worst is yet to come?? Just curious.(btw-also from Can:)
I miss Idan’s daily updates on the page. (what he’s looking to do, buy/sell targets, etc)
I would listen to the live trading, but it’s difficult from work.
Thank you so much, I love the posts
Went long GS and went long UNG
i do not like how this thing is coiling….
AAPL is doing nicely for the day. I’m still bullish on this. Have a 284 longer term projection on this.
AXTI
broke yesterday’s high
Optic mentioned up top about fib projections. I use a lot of fib projections, and most of the other EW analysts don’t really use this.
There are two ways you can use fib projections. One uses retracement extensions. So you’ll see the 161% retrace of a move, etc. This is different from the method I’ve developed where you attempt to find the end point of a wave. I say that I developed this because I didn’t really see it used anywhere else. I also never used any other resource to develop this method. Now there may be people out there who have been using this for years, but I just don’t know of it haha.
Over my study in older charts, I noticed that there come specific times where if you knew the beginning and end points of a wave, you see that the 38, 50, and 61 percent retrace points often play key roles within that completed wave. The smaller waves within those waves also often play significant roles.
So there are key points where if you have a correct EW wave count and are projecting a 3rd or 5th wave, you can attempt to find that goal point based on the current market movement. Using various support/resistance areas you can try to find one key fib projection that has a high probability of hitting based on the current market movement. Future movement will either confirm or deny this projection based on how those projected fib retracements of the incomplete wave play out.
I’ve tried to hone this ability over the last 2-3 years. I’ve used it to call a number of short term and long term bottoms and tops on the SPX. You’ve probably noticed over the last few weeks alone how I predicted a number of stock projections that have hit from V, AAPL, TNA, AMZN, etc. while a majority of people were calling for a drop or a retrace before those projections hit. This is not to toot my own horn, but to show how effective the method can be if worked properly. I also wouldn’t post my finalized charts and projections here if I didn’t think there was some grounds to it, and I think over the last 1-2 years, I’ve been pretty good to you guys with my charts (I hope!).
The problem is, this is not an exact science. Also you have to have a good understanding of EW because you can create a projection that looks wonderful, but if the rules of EW won’t let you reach that projection anytime soon (if ever), you’re going to get some major retraces before, or never hit that projection ever. Also, it generally takes me a LOT of time to generate projections. You’ll notice that I have fib projections for stocks and ETFs at specific points in time, but not ALL the time. I no longer have a fib projection on V or AMZN or a number of other stocks that have already hit.
One of these days I’ll try and do a very basic tutorial. The concept is not hard, but the details within the concept take time to master (not saying I have). You also have to take a lot of options into consideration when drawing and developing these charts. Either way, I’m glad that optics and a number of others are showing interest in this method (thanks for mentioning me because I do take a bit of pride in the method haha). I think it is a very powerful tool when used in CONJUNCTION with other TA. Remember that when you see major trend lines or fib retracements break, you need to get ready to throw away your fib projection, or find out reasons why you want to hold on to that projection even more. As I always say, NEVER use any one tool by itself. An wise trader arms himself with an arsenal of tools and learns to use the optimal tool at the optimal time taking as much as possible into the consideration of their trade and position.
I remember back in the days when focalequity was stocktock and we had some seasoned traders and some young traders. There were a lot of questions asked and a lot of patience from people to answer and trade ideas and methods. I’m hoping we keep that balance of young and old, new and seasoned. A lot of the EW analysts that are regularly followed these days like Daneric originated from this site and we all learned EW together around the same time. We did a LOT of research on our own, and put in a LOT of time to our charts and learning EW properly to see what works and what doesn’t, not just based on definition, but also on market movement. In 1-2 years time there may be people on this site who are far better than me at charting and technical analysis, and that is actually something we should be striving for as a community. So if you’re new, feel free to ask questions and add commentary. Even simple questions can help us rethink and explain our charts and trading process to help us affirm or rework our analysis.
Either way, thanks to all those who have stuck with us. Let’s all make some money.
Thanks a ton Woo … unfortunately not able to access the site form work so sneaking in
We are currently breaking the inv H&S neckline at SPY 117 and testing it as support ….
Wow.. How very generous of you, to take your time in explaining this. You’ve always been very gracious. A true gentleman & scholar of the markets. An inspiration to me personally.
I also remember when this was more of a community. You, Schweiser 135, Daneric, Shanky, Mohan, Idan etc..
Even if I personally was not knowledgable enough to contribute at that time,, I remember all the great commentary and trading dynamic that flowed through the intradays.
People came and went.. Had the feeling of a hippie community of sorts.. Anyone could say whatever as long as they remained civil. Yes, needless to say there have been some unsavory characters along the way. But you moderators have always handled them with the greatest elegance and intelligence.
I also remember that after that great trading period, unfortunetely alot of other really good traders stopped posting,, and for the ones that were left it kindda became a sort of leachers chat room. Not alot of sound trading knowledge flowing,, just a bunch of people asking “Woo,, what’s gonna happen?”. Amazingly enough,, you keeped helping out. But really, how long can people expect to remain gambling,,ugghh , I mean trading
,, without taking the much needed time to study and train for themselves?…
Anyways, out of the spirit of community that Stocktock has had I also wish to do everything in my power and contribute. Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day,, teach them how to and,, u know the rest
.. I don’t know as much as you guys, but I would love to share what I do know. It would be trully awesome if this place were to get back to the days you described. My biggest wish is that some day I will be able to share something with you and Idan that you didn’t know of. Some type of repayment for all the great knowledge you guys have shared with us.
Thank You guys..
GL
Hey Idan – I guess we need to say miss you and Woo a lot more often
lol
anyone else showing 1155 print on the S&P??! flare?
testing that line…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p68773045704&a=181956106
Fritz – you were talking about longer term investing. Ever consider LEAPS?
LEAPS has a hidden danger – no bids. We saw it on Thursday, even bear ETFs went down to pennies.
When you short, you keep the cash first. I have calls to protect them, so if I’m wrong, I’ll can still get out relatively unscathed.
Were options around during the 1930s? This may be one of the main differences between the 1930s and today, the other being electronic trading. Traders can place trades multiple times faster nowadays, but they also get margin calls multiple times faster.
yeah, you buy leaps and you’re pretty much stuck in there for a good while. you get a nice discount though at purchase. i dislike the lack of volume and commitment as you mentioned.
options were not around till the 70′s
Can’t believe SLV is at $19+ now.
Some time & sales of folks trying to get into TZA AH yesterday.. ouch..
Date____Time___Price____Bid_______Ask_______Volume
05/11/10 19:28:52 6.36 6.35 6.36 3000
05/11/10 19:29:53 6.36 6.35 6.36 0
05/11/10 19:31:23 6.36 6.35 6.36 300
05/11/10 19:31:39 6.36 6.35 6.36 250
05/11/10 19:32:45 6.35 6.35 6.36 2000
05/11/10 19:33:07 6.36 6.35 6.36 1050
05/11/10 19:35:47 6.36 6.35 6.36 0
05/11/10 19:37:50 6.35 6.34 6.36 1200
05/11/10 19:37:52 6.35 6.34 6.35 0
05/11/10 19:38:09 6.36 6.36 6.35 1535
05/11/10 19:38:14 6.35 6.33 6.35 330
05/11/10 19:38:48 6.33 6.33 6.35 1000
05/11/10 19:38:59 6.33 6.33 6.35 0
05/11/10 19:39:04 6.35 6.33 6.35 1000
05/11/10 19:39:24 6.35 6.33 6.35 0
05/11/10 19:39:46 6.35 6.33 6.35 500
05/11/10 19:39:53 6.35 6.33 6.35 0
05/11/10 19:40:26 6.35 6.33 6.34 0
05/11/10 19:40:59 6.35 6.33 6.34 0
05/11/10 19:41:32 6.34 6.33 6.34 500
05/11/10 19:41:35 6.34 6.33 6.34 200
05/11/10 19:41:51 6.34 6.33 6.35 200
05/11/10 19:41:57 6.34 6.33 6.35 0
05/11/10 19:42:19 6.35 6.33 6.36 1087
0Ptic i am looking at $5.30 target entry on TZA probably tomorrow !!
I like Idan’s thoughts on the SPY to reach 118.40 level that should put TZA right in that level.
What say you ???
I swear to god,, I have no idea what this market is doing.
Yes,, the volume is small going up.. but it’s to be expected from this type of uncertainty & consolidation.
I’m not good enough yet to try to anticipate what the market will do. Woo is the only person I’ve seen do that sucessfully.
For my style of trading,, I wait, and let the market show me what it wants.. If it breaksdown past SPY 113,, I’ll look. Past the 200 sma I’ll reall look. Past Feb’s low,, I’m definetely short.
I make more money playing break outs than riding these bearish ETF’s.. every time I try,, I end up not profiting or lossing money. I really need alot of confirmation to get short. Look at the Russel,,, the sucker is above the 50, above the 61.8 retracemnt of the fall and never broke the potential wedge on the daily.
I hear ya,timing these things are tough and if selloffs dont last most money is made or lost in after hours or pre-market..
So much for Fritz theory for a market crash. I’m back in trading with the bulls. If you can’t beat them join them!!
a crash can happen any time !!
before market does not make a new high, there is no sign to be permabull.
Danger Zone time is between Mai 14 and May20……..
I took some new Bear Put spreads in SPY today for May!!!!
sad. i was kinda hoping to ride the roller coaster down..
My forecasts are for the long term, never for the daily whipsaws.
You want to pretend May 6 2010 never happened? I was watching it live for a complete 6 minutes. Fat finger? What fat finger?
With the debt path that we’re on, unless we can create some organic economic growth real soon, there is only one way to this will end.
Fritz, I didn’t realized how young your were. I’m 42 with kids and I will tell you if I could be 28 again I would try to take the world by storm. You are way too young to have a Gloom & Doom outlook. You are a smart guy and should get back into the market. One thing you have that I do not have is time. I would love to take back 14 years and be 28. No fear, no responsibilties (as in a wife & kids) and a big world with big opportunities. I believe you when you say this market is rigged and corrupt but why not go out and try to make some money and hop on for the ride and when the train changes direction hop off and go the other way. Dude there will always be curruption but it does not mean that you have to stop living and stop making money. Good luck to you and keep comming back to post from time to time since I enjoy reading your views on the market!
I have never understood the “Doom and Gloom” scenario. Yes the markets go up and down and people are going to game the system and make/lose $$. BUT people are always going to smoke Cigs, drink Cokes/Beer and eat chocolate. The Highways are packed during rush hour, the restaurants on friday nights are packed, the sports Stadiums are packed, and the Malls are always packed. Obama isnt going to take anyones guns. We are the greatest country in the world. We have the smartest people, the deepest markets, and the greatest military. Yes we are always 30 days away from total anarchy, but I just dont see that happening unless an Astroid hits us, or some sort of massive geological event happens. The way I invest is to have “core positions” (PM/MO, BAC, BA, SO, GE, FKINX) that I DRIP and plan to for decades and then I trade high beta stocks such as AAPL, GS, VALE, FDX, BEXP and KOG. I am not looking to hit homeruns, but to get 2-5% in a few days/weeks or month. I sometimes sell OTM cover calls, but I have been burned doing that (trying to make $50 can turn into a g-unit loss)
I left some chips on the table when I quit trading, they’re still on the table and won’t be affected by the whipsaws or inflation/deflation debate.
I’m getting a farm land soon, and I will actually be enjoying a retirement life style in a year’s time. I don’t need extra cash from trading, so I chose not to spend time watching charts like a hawk. Growing my own vegetables is actually a lot of fun
Since March 8, my market analysis model has indicated to me to stay out of trading short term. Since it has not failed me before, I will follow the signals. I don’t need to trade to earn more money anyways, so I could care less.
In the long run we are all dead
As everybody knows that, even govt and the fed, these guy are doing everything to buy some more time.
The end is clear…default…
The question is how much more time can these guys buy.
Mutch growth is not possible, with so mutch private dept.
sorry !
much growth is not possible, with so much private dept
The tale, each man touches a different part of the elephant and think it is something different. One thinks its a snake, another a tree, carry on. But, what is the same is that all three disagree with each other and are in conflict. All of that could have been resolved if someone with eyesight had showed up and had seen the elephant from a far enough distance to know that it was in fact its a elephant market or a bear market.
Last Thursday’s market plunge drop was the largest pointwise drop in history.
The further increase in volatility is bearish. We often see that right at the beginning of major bear market. You get some single day rallies that really impress everyone. We had one of those after the August 2007 swoon for instance.
Yet, the DJIA has never – not once – rallied 400 points during a bull market. Every single 400 point or more rise was in the context of major bear markets.
We will need a trend reversal to happen on the VIX … in other words, when it starts to make lower/highs and lower/lows. Until then, don’t try to catch a falling knife.
We are all lucky because we have eyesight. But, all to often in trading, we don’t stand back far enough to see the “whole animal” or “whole picture”.Take the VIX Index for instance. close up” view where one can see that the VIX has an expanding wedge pattern, and the S&P 500 also has an expanding wedge pattern, although not as pronounced.
Tomorrow, Ill be watching:
BPSG, SNV, BPOP, YMI, LPX, VG, PWAV
0Ptic i am looking at $5.30 target entry on TZA probably tomorrow !!
I like Idan’s thoughts on the SPY to reach 118.40 level that should put TZA right in that level.
What say you ???
I commented on that above.. One more thing,, if you were to do it,,,, what is your stop?
as long as you take your losses quickly,, you can try alot of things. The same goes for stock breakouts. It might take multiple entries till you catch the real b/o.
If a position starts going against me I get out supper quicly. I trade scared & I’m allergic to losses.
Today’s market movement is a bit unsettling for me.
The monthly chart shows the 1185 or so area that Idan is talking about as a short term resistance north of here. However, the 1 year and 20 year show a strong line at the low to mid 1170s. To go north of these two major lines to hit a short term 1 month trend line, and then go back below those two major trend lines seem a little awkward, but I guess it could happen.
Either way, I’ll be playing the market north of 1175 until we break back below it. I’ll consider playing the market short if we open below 1175 tomorrow.
Yeah, i have 1185 but i also have resistance right at 1175-1176 on the 50 SMA daily + ascending resistance line. But since both the 50 SMA and ascending resistance are moving up, if we wait 2-3 days, they’ll be at the 1185 level too.
why the hell CSCO tanking when their earnings everything is better than expected?
Selling into strength/sell the news….up 10% from Friday’s lows. Should be a good buy on significant pullback assuming no crazy event risks.
There are technically two kinds of traders in the market. The fundamental trader that looks at a company’s performance indicators and the technical trader that looks at chart patterns. Analysts from Net Equity state that the rally started with the fundamental traders but somewhere in the middle the technical traders took over and have taken the market up higher then it’s actual value.
Technical traders primarily work with support and resistance levels. Once a security or the market on a whole breaks through a resistance it then supposedly hits new highs based on the stock’s old performance. So right now the market is said to have past a virtual resistance level and technical traders have taken over playing the securities based on their old trade patterns which may not hold.