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Daniel Shporin
12:00PM
My Gold trailing stop got hit at 1217.1, for a $1000 gain. I’m going to call it a day and head out. The rest of my positions all have stops in place and need time to develop. Take care!
11:25AM
/ZN Stop Hit: ($468.75)
/QM Stop Hit: ($850)
10:08AM
Position Update:
I got hit on a trailing stop on the euro, secure $412.50.
I have loose stops in for everything else. S&P’s are filling the overnight gap here, I’ll go get some breakfast. We may rally for a few days, so I’m going to be patient with positions such as the /ZN (Stop below Monday’s low.)
9:00AM
Here’s a P/L update on the positions.
Gold is doing very well here. I’ve already booked $500 on it overnight (I placed the orders at 2AM after falling asleep around 10-11, east coast). I’ve been down $770 on Gold, so I want to walk away with at least $1,000, regardless of where we are on the chart. But concerning the chart, gold is at a very interesting place, 6pts from last year’s high. Meanwhile, silver is following through as well, while copper continues to stay weak.
Will gold break last year’s high today? I think it’ll test it, but I’m not sure if it’ll break it. I”ll keep moving my trailing stop, but I am already very pleased to turn a monthly $770 loss into a $740 profit. Gold had been my largest loser thus far for the month.
8:25AM
My top two plays this week are:
Long /ZN (10-year Bond) @ 119’105 (in overnight.)
Short /ES @ 1121.25 or /NQ @ 1872
Here is a list of the other positions I entered overnight.
6:16AM- Cover 1 /GC @ 1211.7: $500
4:51AM- Short 2 /ZS (soybeans) @ 959
4:42AM- Short 2 /QM (mini oil) @ 75.8
2:32AM- Short 2 /HG (copper) @ 3.1660
2:00AM- Long 2 /GC (gold) @ 1206.7
Monday May 10
7:10PM- Short 2 /6E (euro) @ 1.2757
What’s going on sorta reminds me of Jan 29.
Looks like a good time to buy GOOG once it cools down to 515 and short AMZN again at 132?
How to Lose Money Betting the Market Will Crash on the Day it Crashes
http://www.gamingthemarket.com/financial-armageddon-zombies.html
interesting read.
Good stuff. I was listening to Alex Jones yesterday and he had Max Keiser on and Max was explaining what happen last Thurs when the market dropped 1000 point. No fat finger there. This shit makes me mad and scare at the same time. Fritz was right about the market and by the end of this week I’m pulling out and taking a break for a long time.
Round #2 looks to be on for today.
I have a day job so can’t always be as real time on my blog as I’d like, but everything I said is coming to pass. I actually wrote a little op-ed for my blog on April 29th entitled “great economic risk lies ahead.” We had one up day the next Monday and then the crash. I do not believe we are looking at Jan 29th of this year again. Going long is quite dangerous. In January you didn’t have the sort of macro picture you have now. You had Greece yes, but you didn’t have contagion and you certainly didn’t have a Eurozone wide bailout of enormous size. We rallied yesterday because we gave the Level 3 Trauma patient an IV. That is absurd as he is still dying on the table. The risk to the downside is huge right now given Eurozone troubles. That we are giving back 25-33% of yesterdays rally comes as no surprise. I think there is a hell of a lot more downside out there. At any rate, updating econ data and giving my perspective when I can over at http://www.marksmarketanalysis.com
I agree. I think we’ll see 1000 on the S&P before May is over.
if we hit 1000 on the s&p what would stop us from retesting 666??
i would buy around the 950 for move up to 1180-1240 into Aug-Sep. Final top before down to below 900 into Oct periode.
Turning points for markets are just weeks ahead.
next 2 days is time for positioning in the next down leg !!
woo was absolutely right yesterday, long or short, you had to have some MAJOR ca-hones to hold overnight.
I dunno about big ca-hones but I still have the same shorts from thursday right before the big fall. I have seen no reason to exit.
NXG nice gold play,, getting some action
Same resistance line as yesterday
SNV when that big seller at 3.05 gets taken out.. Thinkiing it goes to 3.20
Gold is a overcrowded place at the moment, like Dollar in Nov 2009.
Maybe false break out and reversal could be the trigger for a larger down move.
Up to now nothing to see, but watch out if long there.
I stay in my long miners, but like to protect in GLD puts if reversal could be seen.
Futures are dangerous here, as market can spike up 50 points and more, but the downside could be same amount !
1.27 on the EUR/USD seems to be the line in the sand for now. let’s see how long they can hold it up here
In BPOP @ 3.58 risking .03
out half @ 3.66 + .08
I got long some GS at 143.2 and VALE at 29.4
VG wants to break out bad..
there goes 1159…. the bull market just continues???
Shorted AMZN @ 131.60
Also in for SDS @ 31.70
There is no reason that the Euro should hold up. Even if contagion and soveriegn default is off the table, at the end of the day the action taken by the Europeans is a currency debasing sort of action. Some level of monetization is certain. And even if the prevent armagedon for these nations, the fundamental growth prospects will be non-existant as a result of austerity. All and all no reason for Euro strength whatsoever.
Who here follows Daniel Shporin?
WYNN…. wow! anyone watching this unreal move……..wanting to Short the crap out of it!
In TZA @ 6.19 risking .05
Out @ 6.14 – .05
so I sold a very small SPY put position that I bought yesterday at close near the open today. When the 1149 area was recaptured it didn’t look too good for the short side. In the leveraged ETF Pro section I mentioned I wanted to see a drop towards 1142 to a trend line and fib, but we never stayed consistently under the 1149 area and I stopped out for a decent profit (although it was such a small position it didn’t matter much haha).
We’re currently sitting under a long term trend line.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p68773045704&a=181956106
I would want to see this break and the 50ma recaptured before considering a long position. The gap up to the next significant point is fairly large, so don’t worry so much about getting a good entry point on a long position. It’s better to grab a secure position in this market because the volatility will kill any of your strong positions if the market decides to quickly turn the other way.
The one month chart says we’ve broken north a bit
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p19837955942&a=181738042
but you want to rely more on the long term chart than the 1 month chart. the short term charts got eaten to shreds by that big 100 point spx move and that will make the shorter term charts a little more unreliable.
GS getting getting a pump
Cause they heard SmyrnaMan bought 20 shares at 143.2, lol
Resistant SPX is 1168, short here with a close stop is possible. If we exceed 1168, than target is 1179.
Tomorrow should be a down day !!!
BAC long above $18. Won’t consider it until then.
AAPL above the $257 area is good. If we can hold this area into close I would say it is bullish. The trend line below here is a little below $250. If you like you can wait for more affirmation at a breakout. I see this going to 284 at least, but we could dip first to $250.
Look at the Euro just getting back to where it was before the bailout. This is the most heavily shorted currency in history, and it’s still going down. Here is a good read from Zerohedge http://www.zerohedge.com/article/european-banks-now-feverishly-betting-against-euro-bailout-fails-gold-surges
Goldman Sachs can create $10 trillion worth of Euro short from the $1 trillion that the ECB just printed out of thin air this past weekend. During last Thursday’s crash (not fat finger, I was watching it for a good six minutes in awe), GS never went down big. Most other stocks dropped more than 10% to trigger short restriction (uptick rule), but GS didn’t. GS news broke on April 16 and that event marked the beginning of the end. They’re out for themselves now, and they’re no longer buying futures in the early mornings. Just remember, they’re still the most influential firm on Wall Street; and what makes anyone think that BAC or MS or JPM can buy up futures on their own?
If you know tomorrow is the end of the world, does it matter that the DOW trades at 37,000? If you know the world ends in three years but you also know your life ends in three weeks, does it matter to you that the end of the world is still three years away? Doesn’t the end of the world for you personnally means 21 days later? These are the questions to ponder before you spend 8 hours a day looking at the market and charts.
No I do not know when I will leave this world, but I know when the end of the world is for the majority of the population. That’s why I ditched day trading or swing trading. I left a sizeable short position on the table (money I don’t need immediate access to) so that when a crash takes place before a massive bank run, I’ll still have excess cash to buy up non-perishable foods and stock up on water. It won’t matter whether you remain short from this point onward until DOW 0 if you can’t withdraw your profit from your broker. Shorts may not get paid during this wave down.
Fritz, what are you saying is going to happen? WWIII, financial collaspe, Terminator Judgement Day, 2012? Help us little people out here and give us your insight on when and what you think will happen. By the way I took your advice and I’m getting out of trading for good by Friday.
Greed will be weed out during this upcoming wave down (working off the excess) and that unfortunately means the financial system must collapse. Like my reply to Anjali last night, you may have a chance surviving the wave down and getting into the new era if you revive the good virtues in human nature. Being greedy will guarantee sure extinction. I was shocked when the market data revealed to me on March 8 2010 pointed to the same conclusion that my other studies are pointing to, but I was relieved to know that Obama & Co. and his Wall Street gangs won’t be in the new world.
So when do you expect this crash to happen?
Any time now. Goldman will not “fat finger” miss it. Elliott Waves cannot predict precisely a rare crash event, but my model did (in late March) point to May 2010 as an appetizer of what’s to come.
You make it seems like world is comming to and end and all hell is going to break! I don’t see that happening but I do see the market going lower before it goes back up.
If I turn out to be wrong, then thank God. If I turn out to be right, however, at least I’ll be a whole lot better prepared than 99% of the population.
Note-I am very bearish but the world won’t come to an end. Depressions have happened before. World Wars have happened before. Every generation is seemingly obsessed with the fact they will be the last to walk this earth.
Markets will crash. Markets will bottom. Future markets have been around for a thousand years, and will continue to be around. Commodities are necessary for the survival of humanity, and trading will continue for years to come. The market lost 90% of its value from 1929-1933, and then we rallied from 33-37.
I won’t get into philosophical arguments here with you, Danial. Nor am I oblivious to the comparison to the Great Depression. I never for once said that humans will be wiped off the face of the earth. My studies point towards a significant population decline in the coming years followed by a Golden Era. I merely try to provide information on how to survive that population decline event. Are you 100% certain that you will survive that event? I am not 100% certain, but I will try, and I pray that it doesn’t happen. However, like I have been saying, “hope” is not a valid setup. Not in trading, and not in real life either.
If you can hold for 5-10+ years then this is a great strategy. I for one also think that we’re on the path towards disaster. The fundamentals for this US economy are just a mess, from real estate to finance, things are not looking good, and there is a bunch of BS that has been done to cover things up and draw them out so that it doesn’t affect the economy right away. Only problem is, it’s going to make things worse. We haven’t fixed one problem to the economy as of yet.
Imagine going to vegas and gambling $1000 in hopes of doubling or tripling it. Then you lose that money. Instead of cutting costs for that month and figuring out ways to make money to make up for the loss you decide that it is better to use an additional $3000 to try and make back the money lost and then some. Then you end up losing that money too. You go back home, and live the same life you used to, but just decide to put in the back of your head that you lost $1000 and owe $3000. The debt never gets paid off, and ends up growing as time goes on.
This is our American economy. People gambled and lost money. Then instead of cutting costs and being more cautious they gambled more heavily. The root problem is still there…heavy leveraging with minimal restrictions. The potential for losing all that money and more is still very much alive. Governments like California are bankrupt when the state itself is one of the largest economies in the world. We have huge spending policies and barely any cost cuts. They are borrowing from future taxes to pay for tax returns and even had to offer IOUs. America does not have a balanced budget and it will NEVER have a balanced budget. Governors, politicians, even the president, they all don’t care about the economy. If you want to pass healthcare, go ahead and do it, but figure out a way to pay for it first. If you want to leverage money do it with a portion of your company where the risk is manageable.
I’m still going to daytrade though. I don’t want to wait 3+ years for the market to finally show it might fall. I’m going to make money all along the way.
It just amazes me when the masses think that “greed” is the real cause of this mess. Why are we all here trying to short/long the market! are we greedy? you bet we are. Is it bad? it depends on your personal interpretation. Where do you draw the line of greed?
As a nation, we are being taken advantage of! Iraq war, terrorism, foreign aid etc do we really need to be involved in them and no one questions the cost of these wars. We , as a nation are naive and led to believe that the world is out to get us etc.
i dont think it’s as much greed as it is a multitude of other things… i like woos gambling reference… the only thing i would add is, that instead of earning the 3000 to REgamble to “double up” we just printed up the money. there are a thousand different influences going on here that have all finally broke the camels back (so to speak)
i’m not giving up just yet cause if what we are talking about really plays out… it’s not going to play out on a ticker symbol on a computer screen, it will be in the streets, and the thought of that scares the crap outta me
My AXP and JPM shorts were protected with Jan 2011 calls as of March 8 2010. If they decide to drive this tape higher I have no issues with that and I won’t get margin calls. I heard many got liquidation margin calls on Thursday May 6, they deserve it.
I agree with you on the population decline Fritz. Am I worried about my own survival? I would say so…I dropped out of school to trade as I figure there won’t be many traditional jobs available for graduates in the 5-10 years. And personally, being in the most powerful nation in the world makes me more confident in my survival than if I were in a nation surrounded by 10-20 other nations that were pissed at us.
And my end of the world comment was more in response to other posters, asking if a judgement day is on the way…I hear that way too much on the blogosphere.
I live in Canada, which is one of the most peaceful and safe countries you can live in. This mass population decline I am seeing is not likely going to be just humans fighting each other for survival, but also natural disasters.
Like I mentioned, if tomorrow I will die, then tomorrow is the end of the world for me personnally. This term applies differently to different people, but will I give up living even if I know tomorrow is the end of the world? No, because there is still countless precious moments to enjoy before the time comes. Will I live differently? Yes, I will know what’s important and what’s not important (and what’s time well-spent and what’s a waste of time). This is the main reason I quit trading.
I am getting myself a farm land pretty soon, so I will be self-sufficient. The market will do whatever it wants to do without me, and I could care less. The debt bubble created will burst one day. Just like Thursday’s crash, it could all blow up at DOW 37,000 and crash back down to 14,198 in one day. After witnessing Thursday’s crash, I think anything is possible, even with circuit breakers.
If I was older I might be doing the same, but being 21 I am doing the exact opposite and focusing on trading. As financial firms blow up, I plan on being there in the new age of capitalism.
Different paths. If I may ask, how old are you Fritz? I would assume about double my age.
I was about 3 feet tall during the crash of 1987. I’m not as old as you think. I still have a couple of years to go before I hit 30.
don’t take this the wrong way but i could tell you were young.
wait until you start a family.
the system will never fail the way you are predicting.
it will not be allowed to…too much at stake for too many people.
if what you’re saying is true the dow would be at 2600 right now.
we recovered from 2008, we will recover from the next one.
the sun will still come up, cabs will still speed in manhattan.
Zee-
It’s pretty frivoulous and pointless at the same time arguing whether Dow Goes to 0 or Dow goes to 40,000. Fritz, I too think the market has changed- from a T/A student/perspective..
the markets are very different from 1930-1990 before the discount broker came about and liquidity increased 1000 fold. However, as Daniel points out, yes economies recover, but some take a very very long time. Nothing was fixed in the 2002-2006 run-up you know that right? I’m not here to criticize you but ‘trading’ is not the best of skill lmao. Do what you want to do.
I’m sticking in school.
Best of luck on your/everyone’s endeavours.
P.S
Gold and gold stocks just hit a millenium high today.
I Wonder why?
Fritz, what are you saying is going to happen? WWIII, financial collaspe, Terminator Judgement Day, 2012? Help us little people out here and give us your insight on when and what you think will happen. By the way I took your advice and I’m getting out of trading for good by Friday.
In cash waiting for the 118.50 level to go short…
I think we see a sideways grind on low volume and then a the last few minutes a buy program will kick in and we could close at HOD…Where have we seen this movie before ????
yeah it’s happend before, but 116.30-116.50 was strong support, we need to break that back up to be very certain that we continue higher.
I agree in part with Woo. I don’t trade because I want to be an economist. I trade to make money of the price movement between points of demand & supply.
Every bubble we have had, is called a bubble because fundamentally valuations are not ‘supposed’ to be that high. What happens to people that short bubbles? Some that stuck with their ‘convictions’ missed this rally, or worse,, lost their money shorting it.
What is the true ‘value’ of things ? Water is the most valuable liquid,, yet you can get it for free from a water fountain. Yes there is alot of supply,, but my point is don’t confuse ‘true value’ with market price.
Please no more ‘true value’ talk. In this business it doesn’t matter your opinion of the ‘true value’ of things. What matters is what’s it worth in a trade..
very well said. there will always be bubbles. there will always be panic selling. there will always be overvaluation. if you don’t like these things, then the market is the wrong place for you. stock is all supply and demand and some fun market manipulation thrown in.
we’re all here to make some money. i don’t think it’s necessarily pure greed either. i don’t gamble with money in vegas i’m not willing to lose. i also don’t invest and trade in stocks without minimizing my risk. i understand that over the long term there will be ups and downs and there is possibility of loss, but with the methods we all learn to develop in our trading, i think it’s a calculated risk/investment as opposed to a gamble.
either way, good luck =P
So Woo – based on this action – what are you leaning towards … since we didn’t go down to 1142 …
we hit near there in futures, but that is useless haha. in the leveraged etf pro section i was saying that i think we could see more sideways action. there is a long term wedge on the 20 year chart. i wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t cross the 1175 area for a while.
if we do break north, there is plenty of gap up as i mentioned before. don’t go long before the market is in the right place. and i would short after confirmed breaks as opposed to playing bounces off resistance.
Here’s my 20 year chart i’ve had for a few months:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83805359164&a=184607634
Greed? No such thing… This is the potential to get paid for work.. And what work it is.. Don’t know if I’ve worked harder on anything in my life. Constant reading , analysing,, etc.. And the best part is that chances are I won’t get paid for my work (since the mayority of traders lose money).. hahahaha..
I love it so though..
For all new folks lurking around..
Read this commentary through and through,, you know the date.. This is one of the many reasons why Woo is head honcho round these parts & his ETF analitycs worth every penny…
http://www.focalequity.com/2009/03/06/intraday-commentary-3609/
haha. ahhh…the good old days of the crash. can you believe that this was over a year ago? time really flies. hopefully we’ll all have too much money and will just retire in a few years…then again…i guess that is where the greed comes in
Not to get off topic here, but Fritz’ comments have stuck with me since he first announced his decision to quit day and swing trading. I’m almost to that point myself. Everyday I see more and more that concerns me on a personal level. It is becoming more and more evident where we are headed!
Here is an article I found just a few minutes ago http://www.newswithviews.com/NWV-News/news197.htm . I’m not familiar with the source, so I’ll defer to others regarding the validity. However, if it is true, that will be “game over” as far as personal liberty is concerned. Has anyone else heard about this?
If that does happen, then Fritz predition will come true and all hell will break loose!
When market has a big correction (~10%), it often forms double bottoms. We may see 2nd bottom a couple of day later when SP hit around 1108
Woo, thank you very much for 20 year long term chart.
After year 2000 correction, market move up five years. For this big correction from Sept 2007 to March 2009, some famous market analysis like Ken Fishers think market will move up for next few years.
Short pattern
3000 shares SDS @ 31.3
correct 3000 shares SDS @ 30.3
Woo’s 20 year chart sure makes it look like a classic MA pattern is in progress, just needs more time…