Please share your thoughts on the market over the weekend on this blog! Where does the spy go from here, what about GS, and tech?
Weekend Updates – What are your thoughts on the market? $SPY, $GS, $AMZN
– May 8, 2010Posted in: Intraday Commentary
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i think everyone is tired of hearing it.. I just lurk here now and i’m sick of you and jimbo’s back and forth..zee your a child it shows in all your posts.. As someone who thought he had it all fig. out at 19 I can tell you at 29 I now understand how much I didn’t know shit at 19. At 39 i’ll prob. feel like I didn’t know shit at 29. Jimbo we all known zee is a kid just being a kid .. Think he has it all fig. out. No need for the back and forth. Let him be proud everyone gets their kick in the balls sooner or later. I got mine trying to short this fraud of a market for the last 2000 points. As for Sam who could be zee well he is a joke. Always making calls a day after the fact. He should be ignored as well. ZEe your post above shows your age.
i’ve been deleting their comments. The next person that annoys the other person, will get banned.
I didn’t read the comments of anyone being annoyed today, but thanks Idan, it really should be about trading.
Very well put Jimbho..
I personally could care less about the childish commentary I browse through at times. I ignore it and see it as part of the noise a trader needs to learn not to pay attention to if they want to be succesful in this business of ‘everyone has an opinion’.
My posts here are helpful for me to gather my thoughts and I’m hopefull they can be of help to beginer traders that read everything yet keep quiet while they learn the trade.
Why? I was one of those traders back in 08 when the likes of S135, Woo, Uner and Shanky were kicking ass during the drop. I also observed how some of them couldn’t handle this leg up and just dropped.
Keep posts like these comming. It’s obvious that you know your stuff.
GL
about time…ban them!
It is always a bad idea and often overly arrogant to claim to be speaking for “everyone”.
Idan,
The symmetrical triangle formed on the SPY is typically a continuation pattern, which means that the downward trend is likely to continue. In AH the SPY ended at 111.79 which is an upward break out of the triangle, although not confirmed until closing above in the cash markets. Closing below 111.16 would seem to confirm further downward action as that is movement below the 61.8% line which so far has been support for the last 3 candle bodies on the 60 minute of the symmetrical triangle.
There is an aweful lot of downward momentum still and only my 3 minute chart shows any sign of reversal and it is very slight and subject to not being the controlling timeframe at any given moment other than scalping action. The larger timeframes from 5 to 15 to 30 to 60 to daily all indicate that the entire trend has shifted to long term down, only the weekly and higher remain “bullish” with the possibility that they have yet to receive enough down to as of yet alter their views.
There is an awefully nice channel from the open of April 27th through May 6th at which time it broke down at the beginning of the major collapse and began forming the symmetrical triangle which then backtested the bottom of the April 27th – May 6th channel. The bottom of the channel has served as perfect resistance thus far.
Your thoughts? Continuation or Reversal?
I think we’re going to continue going down, based on what a lot of what you said, but my guess is that we will get a bounce tomorrow and maybe a few days.
I agree we will bounce for the next few days but I don’t think we’re going back down.
Why would we?
What would cause that?
S+P got that -10% all were waiting for, Eu just got 600B.
I think it’s up.
1110 defended.
It’s too early to know whether we go back down or not, but we broke significant levels, and so you can either go long with a trailing stop, or try and short those significant levels with a tight stop.
I don’t know what the market is going to do
.. Nor do I care,, really 
. Here are some levels.
1150 – Jan high
1142 – 50% april high – 5/6 low
1139 – 100 sma daily
1120 – Trendline on daily (Jul 08 low / Feb 09 low)
——-
1110 – close on friday
——-
1095 – 200 sma daily
1085 – 76.4% Feb 10 low/April 10 high
1065 – 5/6 drop low
1045 – last trend low on daily
How would I play this?
Agressively: After one of these levels is taken I can enter in that direction with a tight trailing stop.
Conservatively: After on of these levels is taken, wait for a pullback and enter on a higher high (if long) or lower low (if short) on a shorter term time frame.
IMO the path of least resistance is murky at this time. If capital preservation is your number one,, I would wait till the middle of the week.
What do you think?
I don’t see a symmetrical triangle anywhere! DMI shows beginning signs to the upside. I think monday market will open lower and begin its continuation. I read somewhere that the last year could been a bear market rally.. This is wrong because the definition of a bear market rally is for lower lows. There’s no way market could go lower than what it already has back in 5/09.
The correction will soon be over and market will make continuation. you’ll see!
Descending channels then form symmetrical triangle:
http://img641.imageshack.us/img641/1451/spy050710symmetricaltri.jpg
Is This The Chicago-Based Firm That Wrecked The Market On Thursday?
http://bit.ly/965lQA
last week about GS i told you that GS will go up few day and then it will crash, sure enough market did exatly whay i said. I guess GS has still room to go below 135 and the i am a buyer. For SPY i still hold 25% of my short. My target to sell that is 1020~1050. For sure any bounce is just a opportunity for big biys to get rid of thier longs. Market has to drop, it ca not go up months without any correction, if it does at anytime in future then remeber what happen last week.
SWBB
Are you ready for monday?
Sure, we could consolidate and if that’s the case, no move is the best move IMO.
But, if we bounce hard, or drop hard, which industries/sectors/stocks would you go long or short? Why (Detailed technical & some fundamental is welcomed)?
Know this,, and I’d say you are ready for monday.
Premarket is up big time
If we open up at these levels, shorts are toast.
I think we will back test the 118.50 level on the SPY which also happens to be the neckline on the H+S pattern…
Not sure which H&S you mean.
I’m liking Daneric’s H&S
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S-V6OydM3-I/AAAAAAAAFJk/N4HewIb2n9A/s1600/spx.png
The 50% at 1142 seems about right.
Nothing is certain,, yes we could see new highs.
If you are a bruised bear and want to play it safe, wait till it bounces of the top 1142, 1150 whatever.. And catch it after the 100 day at 1139 is broken down again.
I have 50% around 1132 not 1142 and would expect at least a 50% retrace before more down. Has to bounce at some point or another. Makes sense.
Every time there has been a big down day there has been a lower low within a few days, looking for the repeat of that this time. The huge selloff on the 6th really showed how scared everyone is and that they just don’t have faith in the current valuations of this market. It showed the true colors, that when there is a hint of reversal everyone will run for the door and take whatever they can get on the way out . . .. ..
I have a feeling we will rally. & if you missed the short, you MIGHT get a chance higher up.
If we rally, are you playing beaten down stocks, or those that held well?
If you plan to short this rally, at what level are you planning to do that?
yes, we are up big now premarket, but a lot can happen…right now all articles are pointing to an eu plan for 600b crisis package, but if you read further, they are still seeking a compromise…not a done deal yet and if they don’t get it done, green can quick turn red. shorts might be toast if and when to deal is done….
There was distribution going on before this Greece ordeal. Sure fixing Greece is good for a bounce,, but I think there is no way we go straight up.. Loooong consolidation then up, yes. But this for me is a dead cat bounce.
I could be wrong.. Let’s see the volume & how it all plays out.
looks like they got it done
600 billion is a big, big number.
We will rocket higher tomorrow.
I’m not all that sure that we will drop after that.
Damn!
I knew I should have gone long Friday…too chicken.
1110 was defended well.
I guess that’s a double top on the vix then?
Pre-market up bigtime yes, but still not above or really near Fridays “high”, until we break above that it seems irrelevant.
Perhaps a spike open then down, a bounce more than a direction change?
that is what i was thinking
Well, we are above friday’s high now. 1137 in the futures as I write….
True, but the highest high since the drop was Friday a little before close which was 1138. Thats the mark to beat. Current futures 1133.9 which is right around the 50% retrace of the entire move from February 5th to April 26th.
Guess we will see tomorrow ….. . .. ..
Idan you need to ban all the ip ad. this child posts from. I have to wade thru nonsense to get to the posters who are serious and have opinions about the market to share. This little guy zee keeps saying he will quit posting but continues on day after day without adding anything to this board besides playground fighting.
This fighting needs to stop! You all sound like a bunch of kids.
one of them is a kid..
Not sure anyone got my few post on Friday. If you are short, you are not going to like Monday at all.
do you think this is just a bounce on the news of the bailout or is the pullback over?
Pullback over, and there will be one nice bear trap mid
morning after the massive short covering.
Go long Companies like DD, NUE, BAC and PMI
I did see your post on Friday and I agree-lets see what happens tomorrow.
3min, 3min, can you recommend some other helpful websites to get helpful trade or investment forecast?
Not really. All advice sucks. For example, GS has a foward PE of less than 7 right now. history Average for banks is 10 – do you think GS is average? GS is a total buy right now.
We’ll go up to 1150 and then drop like a rock. $1 trillion dollars shows how bad this really is. It’s unfortunate that people think that bailout after bailout is a good thing. We’ll re-fill the current pre-market cap mid week.
i think we’ll get a lot of choppy sideways garbage. we’ll see after that, i would guess more downside though.
am i reading the futures right?! up 240 at the moment??!!
why is china down?
Because their sugar daddy is taking their cocaine away
Been reading trusted trade blogs and watching the Asian market. Futures are up as you know. One thing to note is that each market I’ve seen displayed was higher pre and half hr into the open and then began to lose steam. Short-covering? Profit-taking and then sidelined? Maybe.
I went long btu and bucy at Fri’s close bankling on at least a dead kitty bounce off an oversold week. After watching the open market’s behaviors this eve the plan (right now) is to take any profit by the 1000 turnaround time Mon AM if the market shows anything less than a strong buy attitude.
The InTheMoney weekend video is worth a watch. Go into InTheMoney.com and then into the Rant and Rave blog to find it.
If any of you have a great blog on either Thursday’s crash or the EU meetings please post the link here on ST.
ZeroHedge and Automatic Earth are two of the best I’ve found.
Cheers and GL to all.