Sun Tze
Epic Day!. All of our short positions are closed today due to stop outs. Out of the 26 positions we recommended for Alerts&Analytics subscribers since March 16th, 24 are closed so far. Success rate is 73%. VIX jumped as much as 60% at one point and treasuries rallied even more than they did during the Lehman crisis. So support us guys and follow our trades.
The channel was key today as the market crashed almost 1000 points and the SPY hit 105, take a look at Idan’s charts! One of Idan’s traders makes 5.3% going long the spy:
Idan will be LIVE TRADING at 1:00pm on Thursday (5/6/2010) .You can ask him questions by blogging on the intraday commentary at http://www.focalequity.com
Make 25-40% a year by subscribing to FE Alerts& Analytics for $49.99/month on Click Here
Sun Tze
1:07am
Very clear and concise free video on the outlook of the DOW30 from INO. Highly recommend that you watch it.
Link: http://www.ino.com/info/552/CD4204/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3
On a side note, I see several people on our trading blog saying go long this stock and go short that stock without really paying attention to the objectivity of the charts and the overall current social sentiment. You really can’t trade this market emotionally. Currently, the biggest issue with regard to the social sentiment is Goldman Sachs. The crowd is saying Goldman Sachs would likely just walk away with maybe a couple billion dollars of fines from SEC. I don’t think the matter is that simple here. We really can’t rule out another Lehman style collapse at this point.
As for the charts, I think we need to pay particular attention to the retracement levels and pay close attention to the sentiment indicators. We are really not betting in either way through our Alerts&Analytics portfolio. Here is the current most up to date closed positions’ performance of our long/short portfolio. We closed 70% of our 28 positions since March 16th.
Today’s action’s shattered the confidence in the market that there can’t be any big correction until late this year or whatever, this will create more volatility in the market, people will sell at the first sign of trouble. For those good traders, this is a dream come true. (wish I’m one of those
)
I told you GLD is buy. Look and see. I told you SP is short, Look and see
SWBB
Daniel Shporin,
Any thoughts on the Yen here?
what the hell will asia do tonight?
they’ll jerk off like we did
To those who were here to view Fritz’s posts–
“Friends at stocktock.com, I will not be posting regularly on this site from now on till the end of this year. I may drop by on weekends, but you are probably not going to see me posting comments everyday. I will spend less time analyzing the market as my priority has to be my family now. My long term view of the market hasn’t changed: January to February 2010 will likely be a repeat of January – February 2009; instead of a March bottom we’ll probably have a July bottom; and best opportunity to buy stocks should be in October 2010. Best of luck trading the rest of November and the month of December.”
Something to think about…
I miss Fritz. He was a good guy and a smart trader.
/ES possibly rolling over here..and large contract sizes crossing the tape here
Well,, you have to remember that there’s alot of traders/investors etc.. that will be calling their broker today after work,, telling them,, get me the f… out of this market… hahaha I just feel sorry for people who might have gotten stopped at the lows with a huge loss
…
true…lessons for those who are long equity for more than just a day trade who don’t have stops, don’t be stingy on those puts if you’re already in the green
I wonder if this will help the administration pass the financial reform
?
Don’t mess with the boys on top.. nuff said!!
I think tomoorw we will gap down and go side way and on Monday there will be another gap down but it will follow with a HUGE rally. I am wondering how the EW blogs are going to change thier coutning now. PUG blog is silince. I am sure he is reading his books to find out how he can lable this huge correction and drop.
SWBB
anyone looking to short the FXI A/H?
or have shorted the FXI
Got in at close on double inverse for same. JPX @21.60
also did DPK @19.14
whatever hope bulls had of pushing this market to the stratosphere by wooing back the retails investors was quashed with today’s market events
NASDAQ to cancel all trades more than 60% above or below market that occurred from 2:40 to 3:00 eastern
Link please?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37003855
NYSE also doing the same.
NYSE ARCA
jdub exactly,this is why the bull will be dead
what happened to morris, hope he is alright
I think morris was short into today, sure he’s fine.
I tend to be bearish but never saw this coming, have to give credit to Basil Chapman of tfnn.com
for screaming sell and short yesterday. Very bullish on gold and baz said if gold survives the double
top we could scream way higher.
Made money in spite of self. Thanx to chapman and Shepard.
no I think Morris was long..switch over yesterday..the market will bounce at some point…he will be fine and he just made a ton of money earlier in the week
i think you’re right. i remember a post where he was in ERX. he may have been stopped out with the big plunge..who knows
Morris was long and in the end he will make money
He has a good track record..
Nice to see all the bears popping out today
Hi guys. Wild ride. Sorry can’t pick up FocalEquity at work because of the Facebook “like” images. I sold downside puts into the drop. THen ThinkOrSwim started choking. Started getting Odd prints. One of which said I was up $10 million. Hah!
One of my exwives kept saying that when i hit 10MM she’d sell.
Funny girl. Was not funny when she said she was the housekeeper so she’s keeping the house.
Volume on the buyers of the EUR starting to pick up here…Trichet with the help of Uncle Ben and Timmy?
if the rebound after the drop is backtest of this trendline…markets could be in a whole lotta trouble…
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S-NEorBll2I/AAAAAAAAFH0/s4M24jRG4Fo/s1600/djia.png
9835 is support, if that breaks, we go down to 8000. Do not pass go, do not collect $200.
I fully believe we can re-test the March 2009 lows now. Fear is back into the equation and everybody wants out. We better have a heckuva jobs number tomorrow. Anything less than +250k and I remain short.
The GS projection for jobs was hushed by the press, it came out just before 3PM at 80K+ jobs.
Piss poor, one of the reasons market tanked.
that said, the gov’t will fudge the numbers to prevent outright collapse, imho.
Nice people at cnbc too busy screaming buy and fat fingers to report the advance data info from the
best on the street, LOL.
couldnt agree more jimbho. going back and watching it as it happend and pasani is talking to traders they flat out said there were no bids, doesnt sound like a fat finger error to me…
Can’t come out and say bernanke was slow to pick up the bid….Kudos to Dr.Doom
Marc Farber came out last week and said 35% downside and resumption of bear market.
He also called the march bottom…
he was waiting for the printers to finish printing all that money out of thin air. lol
i am expecting to see some more drop guys. Unfourtunatly i was not at my desk to sell my puts when market crashed crazy, but no problem, Big boys are still short.
SWBB
Check out FNM and FRE weekly charts. Broke out of bull pennant and today backtesting trend line/50MA.
Interesting bullish charts given current market.
any thoughts?
Here is the REAL explaination of what happened today with the huge drop:
(watch the video) –> http://money.cnn.com/2010/05/06/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm
So it wasn’t any trading “erro”r or any of that other BS . . .. . .. .. . .
Dangerously close to meeting requirements of the Hindenburg Omen…
but futures are up nicely… go figure
Spy finished down .6%. in a/h, not a good sign.
The arab who claims to be prez will be giving a speech right after the jobs numbers, so, question
is how much will the numbers be rigged to support the market?
If we whipsaw friday, expect a crack on monday. They would have been wiser to let the 1K fall
stand rather than do the PPT.
Wonder how billionaire MBA baby Zee did with his sale of VXX? Sucks to be.
except for days like today, it rarely goes down on 1 fast move.
had dinner with buddies at BAC/ML and BCS…they’re telling me that order’s from up their superiors past few days have been “sell into strength and/or lighten up more than usual into gains…too much event risk going on”. they also mentioned that event risk isn’t going to go away after germany’s vote on greece bailout…spain, et al will linger and get louder.
one of them even speculated that he will not be surprised if riots in greece (+ possibly germany if they vote to approve the bailout and the UK if new government’s planned austerity measures are presented to the public) will be sensationalized in order to show Obama administration and fiscal conservatives what happens to debt laden economies (ala the US now) combined with an entitlement society (arguably the direction where current admin wants to take us).
i guess risk managers’ voices now penetrate the trading desks.
careful trying to pick a bottoms here.
stop losses or buy puts….or just follow Sam and the SWBB….can’t lose with them on your side
I was nodding in agreement up until you got to the stick with Sham and his All-boys stuff….
LOL, he changes his mind, or lack of it, faster than i do my underwear. He shorts but does not
say when or what price, long gold but no entries or timeframes. He is zee’s little alter ego, zee
makes one set of mistakes and he the other.
Audio of Market Crash in mp3 format. from the Open Outcry pits of the S&P500 “big” futures.
http://www.mediafire.com/?ng3mtaztmiv
Great listening, thanx for posting!!!
MS sold this the way down and it seems JPM is the PPT purchase planner.