3:40pm
If market can close below 120, that would be somewhat bearish going into tomorrow. I suspect AMZN bearishness to continue while GOOG can actually still rally. GS closing in below 148 would be very bearish for that stock, anything close to 152 would be bullish. I’m hoping VZ catches a bid soon as well.
1:18pm
The market is forming a H&S formation on the 5 minute (SPY). In addition AMZN made it up to 139.40 and found reistance there… I expect more downside from AMZN and am long GOOG as a hedge. GOOG looks more bullish as it is trading in the bottom of the channel but has formed a few inverse H&S formations.
Idan to speak about Markets at 11:30am EST
Chris to trade LIVE on video at 12:30pm EST (Will only trade LIVE tomorrow)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________
Daniel Shporin
12:00PM
I lowered my stop on the /TF to 725.6. I’ll lose about $80 on the total /tf position if it’s hit. I’d rather re-enter tomorrow if we break today’s low later in the week, than sit through consolidation and wait for the market to move in my favor.
10:45AM
I covered my last contracts of nat gas and oil.
Oil- 86.40
Nat Gas- 3.956
Very solid day trading the energies. Now if the /TF can just start heading back down, everything would be fine and dandy.
10:13AM
I covered 1 /CL @ 86.69. Just got 1 contract riding on oil and 1 on nat gas, with a stop to take 1 tick profit on both.
/TF is riding, in a loss right now but I see little reason to cover.
10:02AM
Here is my day trading position update:
/CL- Oil
Long 3 @ 86.29
Cover 1- 86.42
/NG- Nat Gas
Long 3 @ 3.935
Cover 1 @ 1.3947
Cover 1 @ 1.3955
Stop 1 @ 3.936
9:50AM
Current Positions
Swing Trade- /TF–Short from 721.8
Day Trading- I’m trying out a different approach daytrading the energies. Last month, 50% of my profits went to commissions. I’ll only be taking 1 trade per day, 1 direction, and taking contracts off as the move either goes in my favor, or consolidates/goes against me as time goes on.
/CL- Long $86.29
/NG- Long 3.935
9:06AM
Good morning. I am short /TF over the weekend from 721.8. At the moment, my stop is very loose at 738, but I will adjust it as the day goes on.
Idan
1:55am
The SPY could be in trouble as it is forming a H&S formation on the 60 minute that could break over the next day or two. We had this same formation happen back in July of 2009 but i’m hoping we can get a breakdown this time because we are much more overbought. Here’s a chart. What are your thoughts on the breakdown and GS or BP??
Here’re the schedule for today
Motor Vehicle Sales
Personal Income and Outlays – 8:30 AM ET
ISM Mfg Index – 10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending – 10:00 AM ET
ITYS
LEI up another 12% on the open, rehabbing old wells onshore will be more profitable now that offshore
is suspect…Lucas Energy is on the amex.
My lock of the year, buy and hold forever is SAC.V south american silver. Up 11% on open.
Not looking at my gld calls for june, letting it ride. No point shorting this market and feeding the pig, go
long gold instead and ignore Sam the coward like ITYS.
In TZA @ 5.76
out @ 5.68 -.09
still holding all positions from Friday
What are you in right now morris?
SCO, SDS and SKF are my shorter-term positions
I bought 1000 shares of SKF @ 17.29 on Thursday and sold @ 18.05 on Friday and then got back in later on Friday with 500 shares @ 17.87.
I bought 1000 shares of SDS @ 29.00 on Thursday (and added 500 more @ 29.00 on Friday) and sold @ 29.60 on Friday and then got back in later on Friday with 500 shares @ 29.40.
I probably would have sold both of these positions at the end of the day on Friday since they were doing well then but I was away from the computer. We’ll see how it goes today.
I also have some EPV and EUO (500 shares each) along with some TBT which is a longer-term play.
I don’t know how many times the news stated
“Stocks rise on Greek Bailout”
“Stocks fall on fear of Greek”
“Stocks rise on Greek Bailout”
“Stocks fall on fear of Greek”
CTRL+C, CTRL+P, CTRL+C, CTRL+P
Europe and asia down on greek bailout, usa up on buffet endorsing greek bailout.
1000 SCO @ 11.06
Wow you are really confident in the SCO trade.
It “usually” pays off for morris at the end and he’s usually the last one laughing while we watch in envy
11 for 11 on UCO/SCO trades so far in 2010 (all posted here in real time)
something tells me we see mid 10′s before a significant reversal in oil
no way!
if they run it to 90…yes way….I am short too…so I hope it comes down soon…but with the oil spill and an anticipated good unemployment number on friday….i don’t think the inventory report will matter much….I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t see a reversal until next week
well, if you think SCO is going to see the mid 10′s, you should be in UCO right now.
probably, but with my luck I will jump in uco and the oil stick will disappear and sco will reverse. It will eventually come back down…just think with the gulf issue and unemployment expectation the oil bulls may get their chance to run it to 90. I will continue building a short position for the way back down..GL..I also do not have the time it takes to watch these etf like you need to to jump in and out
Jimbho, whats yr LEI target?
$4.24
TGC being bought by me here and now, its the next LEI and good prospects to double up from
here. I do not daytrade, my average hold is 3 weeks.
Do your own DD. My picks are registered as deadly weapons with the Ayatollah.
2000 more SCO @ 10.98
I have 8000 shares now which equals my largest position ever. Average is 11.23 now.
are you buying more to avg down or ?
yes, averaging down. this is what i normally do on UCO/SCO trades.
plus, i want lots of shares!
I think for short term because of Gulf Oil mass oil has good chance to go back to 90s
Good luck morris… GS looks really good after the Buffet comments today… Should ease a lot of fears I would think…. Purchased 1000 shares of SCO @ 11….
Goog above it’s 128 line
in CRXX @ 1.48
sold 1/3 @ 1.54
stop on rest at b/e
Bought VXX @ $20.46. GL.
Just came back from lunch. Got stopped out of this one @ 20.56.
Getting swamped with emials for my short disaster oil picks so will post here if mods allow.
Short Oils in Gulf picks
ATPG
MMR
EXXI
BP AND RIG have another 25% to fall but the options fully price the failure.
And remember, ITYS!!!!
Jim are you already shorts these or thinking to go shorts?
Shorted atpg@22.28 via puts to june$20(.60 each then now ~4) over a week ago, exxi and mmr direct at 20.82/13.77.
Was all in a report i circulated to the faithful. Very small positions by virtue of what i usually trade as i
distrust all downside as bear traps. Wish i shorted more but burnt too many times.
Huge position in GLD calls to june still held at profit for now.
SNDK- taking a short here @42.26, stop @ 42.35
that was quick…out and lost ~$40
it’s sad… I lost so much on this crap and getting back even $100 seem hard
NLC-awesome move on oil busting material producer…
wanted to place a mid to long term hedged EU short here; long EWG, short EWP. Unfortunately, both brokers I use don’t have the shares readily available.
Another bank gets taken over,I hope no one here was hoding stock in it.
NEW YORK, May 3, 2010 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The NASDAQ Stock announced that trading was halted in Frontier Financial Corp. (Nasdaq:FTBK – News) today at 8:13:45 p.m., Eastern Time, for “additional information requested” from the company at a last price of $1.40.
That parabolic move resolved in the usual way?
How FTBK ran from 1.50 to 9 and now zero should be a lesson to the other junk bank buyers,
DEAR oh DEAR as a lock down short that is.
I can’t short stuff under $5. but if i could i would bet the farm on all those run ups as failures.
CSNT is another prime short candidate.
AGAIN AS I SCREAMED, RANTED AND RAVED. . . . .
When a garbage bank runs from 1.50 to 8 on huge volume, its the sure sign of a top and
huge likely correction of 35% in the overall market!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is a sign that the rubes are back in, the MO-MO daytraders are the last crows to the
feast, be careful!!!! Contra the herd….
BTW, is anyone’s broker allowing borrows on DEAR? At what price?
EMN and/or CAT: Is anyone looking a these for possible short candidates?
I’d wait at least for CAT, 5 EMA > 21 and RSI(13) upward trend, undecided about MACD, wait till all these three trend downward first and confirm per next day before shorting, you want the odds in your favor
anybody know company(ies) that clean up gulf oil spill?
NLC—but already made a big move today. Made some money on options earlier today purely on IV when CNBC reported on it.
aahh… too late?
I really have no idea. I’ve been burned too many times trying to play names that pop due to news report. Check it out a few days after to see if there is any TA and/or fundamental reason to go long this stock
BUGS eats oil spills, very hi risk and i would not touch.
3M
Thanks Idan for V short.
Bought calls on TCK.B.TO, June 39. Looks very oversold on short term basis.
This market will recoup all friday lose today
They had buffett out touting the market this am when it looked like manic mutual monday would
not perform. Last time they did this the market tanked 30% within a month.
BTW, average billionaire next door, average working guy made big….never a mention his daddy was
a Senator feeding him money and clients, nice omission?
Do you know how much WBuffet paid for GS last year, wasn’t he the one that save that company? I’m sure he’s really in the green (not solar related) with this stock.
$60 a share with a free put option if it fell under 60 and warrants out by 5 years if it went higher.
He also got the pref convert. to ensure some recovery if they went under.
Loan shark terms. Buffet = soprano.
Ask your broker to arrange terms like that for you, no risk, just upside?
In retrospect, the US govt should have bailed them out, all along GS would have never been allow to fail and that would have helped trim the deficit. The fat cat gets fatter.
what the hell happen to sell in May go away?
It got too popular
This rout has only just begun. Instead of shorting markets buy gold and my fave Silver which
could project up to $178./oz Yuppers, a ten bagger from here and some are speaking of
$1500/oz for sliver long term.
you really mean 1500 one silver once. In what time horizon?
I bought quite a lot at below 10 dollar some years ago. My insurance for bad times. But I do not expect prices much above 100 $.
sure looks like oil want to test 90…87.38 last high in oil? what is the next resistance after that?
Above 89.13 is really a b/o per using keltner channel setting of 21,2.5,10
In YRCW @ .615
On scan, today, listed LVS, MGM, CX, HST, SNDK, HTZ, CIEN, JASO..In JASO stock, option on MGM, CX…exitted HST, CIEN sadly too soon and LVS last Thursday…wuz out sick Friday…Have SLB on list per undervalue EPS*PE = 76 and stock trading at 70ish, seeing this as 5 EMA above 21, one concern is the consolidating in an uptrend marks a slightly bearish trend and RSI(13) in downtrend..
JASO printed at devilish 6.66
I got long some MMM July 105 calls for 15 cents. 3M is a big producer of oil absorbents aka those Oil Booms, and they need A LOT more
sorry that was in response to AA
thanx for the response, i;ll check it out.
Jim, Optic or anyone else that follow small caps: any thoughts on GMO?
I’m watching it.. It’s had quite a run getting here.. Consolidating now.. bigger volume on the up side than when it goes down, that is good.. For it to trully b/o needs to break hard 4.08 and 4.16,, till that happens,, youll be playing hot potatoe if you buy now.
This thing likes to gap,, so it might be a buy at the end even if it doesn’t break those levels, depending how it closes
After that,, I see resistance @ 4.80, 5 level.
CEO’s First Buy Since 2008 is Largest at Co. In Three Years http://bit.ly/cjGhS8
If volume comes in at the break of 4.08,, I would go for it with a stop @ 4.02
watch your level 2,, the seller at 4.09 needs to be taken out.
and there she blows:
Thanks Optic. Yes those insider buys are pretty hard to ignore especially with a few days before earnings. In addition to the CEO, here are more insider buys within the past week:
04/30: Director, 50K shares @ 3.89
04/30: CFO, 5K shares @3.89
04/26: Director, 25K shares @ 3.68
Kicker for me is really the CFO. I pay very close attention when a CFO buys. All these before earnings release
One of my normal priorities is insider buys/sells. to wit LION was unheard of until it came up on
my CEO buy screens 7 months and 150% ago.
Downside ? Might be a blowout 1/4 but china is choking growth, moly sales will be cut and suffer
as i see cliffs and other great resources tank.
This one i would avoid due to run up and risk, but good luck to you if you do.
Anyone looking to short Dollar Thrifty DTG? Look a little overbought. This stock was under $2 a year ago now it’s $50. Sick!
would have been nice to have had calls 14 months ago
GMO-decided to go long @ 4.09. Sold half @ 4.19. Stop set for other half @ 4.13. If it tests and doesn’t fall below 4.08, I will go long via vertical call spread(as IV has bumped up) on this as an earnings play risking 1/4 of my gain. Again, I can’t ignore all those insider buying right before earnings.
Got stopped out of this one for a decent gain. Will look to enter later today if given the chance.
OXY- going long here @ 90.08. Stop @ 89.96
stopped out for a $32 loss.
sorry to hear that, that stock still looks bullish to me…
yeah and of course it makes a move after I get stopped out. I may go long this and short another integrated like XOM just as a hedged play
in KOG @ 4.27 risking .03
raising my stop to 4.26 volume not there..
asending resistance line on the daily..
out .. -.01
KOG is uber bullish and the charts usually show me strong eod closes. I know we are all
nervous, but why grab loss from profit?
KOG is a Soros stock and shale play, don’t turn my dream stock into a loser, lol.
KOG is awesome, LT hold for me. I got a bunch at 40 cents and sitting pretty, waiting for $10 or buyout, lol. To the Moon!!
i told you GOLD has to go up. Big boys are there. I think end of this week we should see a correction on Gold an dthen a hard rally next week
SWBB
Sammy the shammy…. you also said that you’d short the hell out of this market on any
little pop this morning. So, was that a 100 ago or 140?
What was your entry for gold? Via what? gold stock indexes are down.
We are sick of the ITYS and backstabbing lies, go play with zee in the terror training camp.
Sorry, my apologies to any terrorists i have offended by comparing them to these two.
RAME charging ahead. RAME and LEI look exactly like KOG did 140% ago.
LEI up 20% today alone and one i am most proud of. TGC tengasco imho is next to do the 747 take off, eh?
all those following the oil spill. Gov’t using OII service. Not getting much pop after CNBC reported on it.
Bought DXD @ $24.75. GL.
Just found out my SCO buy order got filled @ $10.90 while I was out. GL.
Optic, Jim and sportspotatoe: thanks for all the feedback!
Thank you too
We all learn together through the exchange of ideas..
No biggie though in return please put a hex on the canucks, can’t have them beating the blackhawks, presently I’m analyzing trades for longer term of undervalue stocks that are consider best of breed and short term using the scan from yahoo finance, they’ve been spot on for the likes of LVS, JASO and finnies and some techs. Even though JDSU wasn’t on today’s scan, it was last week, I held tight and will see where it goes for another day or two and unload.
Sporty, you are missing the big picture.
Look for large o/s short interests, high days to cover and ignore the other info.
using aliases again? thats common w/u.
YW
Idan, you were dead spot on OXY action!
ahh, I hate Mondays (and Wednesdays); no time to trade!
Finally they are talking about the jobs losses and econo impact of the spill.
My heartfelt prayers to the Cajun boys losing so much for the 2nd time in a few short years. GL and
let obama show he is not an incompetent idiot like bush in containing and cleaning this enviro Armegeddon.
Actually BBC via NPR interviewed fishing guys etc this past Friday and over the week-end CNN had coveraage almost the entire afternoon. This is so sad just when New Orleans was on a roll per Super Bowl and Mardi Gras and tourism coming back.
All my short gulf plays are getting stopped out, ATPG reversed and taken out, ditto exxi.
BTW, not a single word about EXXON still not having paid for the Valdez clean up, claims still
not settled after 25 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I’m sure you’re making some money. I looked at the SLV chart, you’re right, I think it’s a buy. Thinking a leap call option, would like another day to confirm…also have NOV on buy list, like the MACD setting to point up first, RSI(13) uptrend intact, 5 EMA > 21 so far and price above the 5 EMA.
Silver is the only commod under its 1970′s high of $55. When it jumps up we could see
a peak of $1,500./oz of silver.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Clark/apr222010.html
I can’t speak to timeframes, nor to options, but silver the metal will soar.
500 SDS @ 28.96
you can pick more at 26 by Friday lol
Markets not only correct with pull backs,, they aso correct with time.. This side ways action is not bearish,, quite the contrary.. That being said,, if we brake 1180 I’m shorting..
GMO big seller @ 4.20 If he’s cleared,, might take off..
500 SKF @ 17.55
Does anyone know where I can get a chart on the daily trading volume on the NYSE and NASDAQ?
Thinking about buying some puts on SCHW (Schwab). I see a potential right shoulder forming on the monthly..
Hey, don’t fight the fed, imho if you feel bearish buy gold and find a cave.
Remember, the more obvious the chart patern appears, the less likely to finalize. The last 6,000
points of rally are founded on the bones of shorts, don’t join em.
or buy the VIX
I’m trying to do some correlation analysis on the price on Schwab and trading volume. The stock hasn’t really moved that much since May of 09. Lack of trading volume = lack of profits for this company.. $3 out of $4 from retail investors are going into bonds..
In RTK @ 1.40
–WYNN– setting up a head and shoulders pattern on the 60min???! ready to go short? Idan, i know you trade WYNN what do you think?
I mentioned it in my live trading. I think it can still form the H&S formation on the 60 minute. But until it breaks teh neckline at 88 it’s not a certain short. You can short at 92 in anticipation, but realize that it can just breakout to new highs.
ABK caught a nice bid
Anyone notice stocks having no action towards the end today? Was it some sort of holiday or did people really “sell in may and go away”.. only the “go away” portion.