Idan
3:58pm
Rimm earnings coming out at 4:05-4:10.
RIMM has broken down quite significantly as we have expected based on my charts from last week. That said in the last 10 minutes of today we had really strong volume and a bottoming candle as the bulls are trying to save the $73.70-73.90 support line which is very strong. My guess is this bottoming candle is a false bottom, and that we continue to move lower towards the $72 dollar mark and if that breaks, it will fall to my red support line. I circled the day when i said to sell RIMM:
3:27pm
MSFT seems to be in big trouble, take a look at the daily chart. The support that has been holding its uptrend for the past 2-3 weeks is going to be broken if we stay at these levels today:
3:15pm
Here’s an update on my trades:
UTI is now at the 61.8% retacement at around $23.05, this is a good place to take profits/tighten your stops… We are now up about 11.5% on this position despite the market holding up.
AAPL is slowly falling down, a break of 135 should be the precursor to much more downfall
GOOG is flat right now, so obviously the hedge is working well.
Daniel Shporin
10:42- Oil sold off to exactly $83. I think there is a good proability we will break today’s higher before we close. ***I was wrong on this one. Oil sold off all the way down to its pivot.*** The grains are seeing some nice volatility, with soybeans leading the way down over 3%.
10:09- With a VIX at 17.71, this market simply moves too slow for me. The setup to be shorty is still there, but I’m not a fan of holding for an hour….waiting…when we haven’t had any meaningful move to the downside in over a month.
9:44- I reversed my position on the /es as we broke the day’s low.
9:40- Don’t forget we have a bunch of numbers coming out today and tomorrow. EIA Oil will probably bring the most volatility to though. Stock market gapped down a bit here, but I am long /ES right now on the gap fill. I might be looking to short afterwards, we’ll see how things play out.
9:27AM- Oil made new daily highs today. There’s a good chance we pullback to the pivot $83 level or so first, but I think this move is the beginning of a bullish move into the driving season in the US.
Nat Gas is selling with some pretty good volume as I’m writing this. We may catch support at the pivot today though, and begin rallying. Today’s gap up is the first time we are above the 40EMA on the hourly since March 3rd.
1:52am
Tomorrow we get the ADP report, which will definitely put some weight on the market, but that said lets look at another stock Google (GOOG). It is still uncertain what google might do but for now I’m getting a really strong inclination to go long this stock right into earnings. With a beautiful Inverse H&S formation forming here, a break of 570 could be what GOOG needs to rip higher into earnings (which i think will be a little better than expected based on the way my friends recommended the nexus 1 to me. ).
I’m still unsure where the market as a whole is going to go, but i have a feeling that GOOG’s china story is outdone itself, and that GOOG might be a buy while AAPL might be a sell. I think using that we can hedge our AAPL’s short with the GOOG long. I usually would like to wait until a break of the 570 neckline but in this case (for a swing trade) this might be the time.
Here’s a 60 minute for you to see:
RIMM players- Might want to check out volume on Jan 110 Calls
wow, what do you make of it? He’s only paying $125 bucks or so to make about $3700 on one contract. To me, cheap is cheap.
Most of the contracts were bought at the ask price which is bullish.
I was looking at RIMM this morning as I was holding 200 shares @ 65.03. I was contemplating selling some April 80 calls to take advantage of inflated IV. Instead, I decided to sell to make use of the cash elsewhere but still wanted to participate in any possible upside. As I was scanning for options to replace my stock holding, I just saw it pop up, hundreds (300+) all on the ask price. So i decided to go ahead and sell my stock, used some of the gains to buy those upside 110 calls for 1.62 (follow the big boys as Sam would say) and will be selling a couple of April 70/65 put spread right before the close. I don’t mind getting back into this thing between 70 and 65.
earnings!!!
exactly! didn’t want to risk my near 2K gain on this thing. So instead I bought 3 Jan 110 calls for 1.62 (total 486) and right before the closing bell, sold two April 70/65 put spread for 1.20 each. I’m effectively risking 486 of my 2K gain to participate in any rally post earnings. And also willing go back into RIMM @ 68.80. 50 and 200 SMA between 69-70. So I’m comfortable with this even though 200 SMA has been violated during the past 2 earnings report. We’ll see. I just went with my gut and followed the big boyz! LOL
and just like that…..i could just have this put back to me…day after tax day here in the US. good thing I sold it!
I agree jDub. good buy..
. if someone was bearish it would be more rewarding to just short the damn thing..
then again. someone could have some intense strategy like short q1q2 earnings and long 2011 calls..
Just logging back into real life and I see lots has changed. Check out JPM in the last 40mins? Hope all is well!
I have a feeling AAPL will get another move up (how high, dunno) and then start going down here and there. Appreciate the price level to look for buying a put.
first sign of weakness……market goes down on its own !!!
We back-tested 117.48 on SPY, see my post from earlier this morning. Down we go below $115
EUR/JPY looking like it will edge down. Will bring market with it. GS looks weak too. Enjoy.
No worries was just a head fake market will have another miraculous comeback and end green.
——————- SAME POSITIONS AS POSTED THIS MORNING ———————- ahhhhhhhhhhh relaxing!
covering my short in –MIC–
loving my short in –AN–
–RL– short doing well
–BPL– calls………….. now in the money. very nice
everything else pretty much flat.
HOPE EVERYONE HAD A GREAT DAY!
———– DDR ————- taking a dive in the last half hour
————— AN ————— look at it go. i have the $20 and $15 PUTS
And as derivative play, SRS finally doing something…now @HOD
anyone else have any IOC positions? I have a few April 65/60 Put spreads and slightly down on it. I might just get rid of it for a loss. Too unpredictable.
im in the JULY PUTS…………… who knows when it cracks but im feeling it goes as it confirmed the pattern in my weekly chart. im not letting go of this too early like i did with PALM. my problem is i let go of things the day before they crack. COVERED my short in BZH two days ago out of frustration … now look.
I’m holding May 65 P on a free basis after having caught majority of first downmove.
Would not get shaken out easy, they have IIRS and tax evasion charges, civil penalties
and mega liitigations by former investors and CFO’s. When this breaks it goes to 10.
big question is when it will break. OpEx almost 2 weeks away. I should have went with a later month put…hmmm
DAL- moving my stop to break even (incl. commissions) @ 14.77. Shorted @14.78 1000 shares
bought another 1000 SCO @ 12.20
————- DDR ———— held this for 8 trading days now. all it did was go sideways. almost wiggled me out. im going to try to watch the daily action less and concentrate more on the open and closing prices. this one is cracking and could fall hard.
STOCKS ARE OK TO NOW SACRIFICE ?? TO HOLD THE BOND MARKET TOGETHER ??
sold 1000 SDS @ 31.00 (up 0.65% from my entry at 30.80 yesterday); +$200.00
just playing it safe
holding FXP, SCO, and VXX positions overnight
how is vxx red today?
VXX doesn’t track the spot VIX; it tracks VIX futures.
This is my first (and last) time using VXX. It is too unpredictable.
very exciting market. I told you everthing in advance. OIl is the key in this market . SWBB
so did I.. but i never get credit
uso didn’t hold the 40.50 and oil bump against previous high….do you think oil has more upside or are we headed back to 80?
iN MY OPINION OIL SHOULD DROP BELOW 50, BUT THE PROBLEM IS THAT BIG BOYS ARE IN OIL. wHEN THEY ARE SOMEWHERE THEN IT IS HARD TO BRING THEM OUT. THA IS WHY I SAY SWBB
SAM what should we do in USO
if we SWBB we probebely have to go long if we see price break above 41
Holding huge apr shorts in spy and IOC rest of other positions off for now, also gold short via
hgd.to.
I suspect the jobs number is gonna sux, they have set up a ultra long weekend as a buffer around
a bad economy and no jobs ever!!!! Anyone with manufacturing that i know has used the current
recession to move production to china or viet nam. Now remind me, why did my brother die over
there again?
Learned that a nephew has died in hospital from Moscow attacks, his father has been airlifted to
Poland for recovery. When the terrorists can strike at the heart of Moscow, in one of the most
authoritarian countries on earth….none of us are safe. Won’t be a very nice Passover around
here this time around.
RIMM === EARNINGS
RIM said it earned **$1.27** a share in its fiscal fourth quarter, excluding one-time items, compared with a profit of 90 cents a share last year.
Sales for the most recent quarter hit $4.1 billion, up from $3.463 billion this time last year
The company was seen reporting earnings of **$1.28 **a share on sales of $4.312 billion, according to a consensus estimate from Thomson Reuters.
–> Don’t touch a falling knife <–
RIMM
70.04
Last Trade -3.93 (-5.31%)
I went in the AH and scalped this thing for a quick $550. Trying to make myself feel better for my end of day positioning on this thing.
300 shares—in at 68.37 out at 70.20. That’s it for me for the day. Hoping for a big red day tomorrow (dare i say sub 1160). Then I can start to go long for another mutual fund Monday.
Thanks Idan, great call!!!
I will spend some time tonigh to analyze the market specially oil and i will let you know tommorrw excatly. SWBB
thanks sam…oil analysis would be very helpful as I went short SCO at 12.30 today following the inventory
I also think the jobs report will move oil from this pivot point….good jobs will indicate the consumer can handle higher prices….weak report…higher prices will kill the consumer
Nice call on RIMM Idan, hopefully someone here was holding a short into earnings to capitalize on the 7% drop that happened on the miss.
The UTI play still has some in it but at 11% yes book some of that trade.
JCP broke down today as expected, BA will be next to break down in the same fashion. PCAR has the same indications of a real breakdown being a possibility but hasn’t quite hit the final death stage yet and could go either way. Candles closing below 43.10 would be the confirmation signal that PCAR is in retrace mode. The SPY itself will be in the same situation if candles start closing below 116.85
My TXT short continues to build every day, so far pleased with that position expecting more to come.
I am really feeling a major overall market downturn here, roughly half my focus list is indicating strong down direction. How deep of a retracement happens there is no telling, but the short side will safely be the trade to be in for a bit which should make the Bear crowd here happy.
are you the same TX…is so…send me a gmail…we need to catch up….
Still holding drv from 9. Being patient. Good luck everyone.