2:32pm
We also took a big short on WYNN at $74.67 as promised in my prior posts… i think this one is a nice swing trade down.
2:24pm
Bidu short here looks great, make sure you put a stop that puts you in profitability if you took the short yesterday..
1:51am
First of all i wanted to share this hyperlink with you (provided to me by digimage). It’s a great way to get a basic understanding on options:
http://www.optionsplaybook.com/
WYNN had a strong day yesterday, and with that i’m going to take a nice short if i can get anymore strength into this stock due it’s oversold nature… I like this a swing trade to the south (this could be a 2-4 week trade), and i recommend putting a 10-15% stop loss… It’s overboughtness astounds me, from an incredibly high P/E of 100+, trailing of 400+. There is no doubt that the company is doing much better than last year, but i do believe it’s P/E will have to fall back to a normal PE of 30-40, I expect at least a 20% pull back on this stock right here.
UTI is also a great short stock that Tony has recently recommended in his subscriptions service alerts and analytics. I think Tony has this stock right on the ball and I highly recommend his service. Take a look at this potential fib target, with a massive spike right up to the $26.20-26.40 fib target, this stock might be ready to calm itself down and start retracing. I like it as a short. Here’s the daily:
—————– AMZN —————– resistance at $132.50 ………
pressing against the rising trend on the daily from past 2 weeks from underneath
IM LOSING PATIENCE
but nothing bullish about this action so hanging in.
we’re also about to butt up against the downward trend that started Dec. 3.
————– JUST A THOUGHT ————— if the PROGRAM TRADERS are running the markets up on MARGIN can they even afford a pull back? they have to just keep buying every dip even if there are only sellers and simply collect all of the supply to keep the account in good standing. how much money are they running with these machines?? how much of the market base do they own if what people are saying is true about holding 75% of the daily volume?
Market has gone parabolic. I’m bullish like the rest of them, but I know that this will NOT end well…
this may end today with a move down to 1155 in last hour !!
there is no sign so far except my swis indicator….which is negative for the next 3-5 days.
—————- IYR —————– i have NO SRS left. sold the rest @ $6.00 and it has totally violated everything in my books and not suprised to see the daily print an RSI of 90 in the near future. its pushing for $51 now.
The SPY trendline is at 117.40 – we just pierced it ….
IWM Trendline is at 69.2
Anjali says:
March 17, 2010 at 10:45 am
X reached tgt of 63.50 and reversed as expected ….
We are currently hitting some major resistance at 117-117.10 – however I have a LT trendline just above at 117.3-117.45 (depending on when it hits in the day) …. so if we see a jump above those levels of 117.1 – then that will be the next tgt. I expect a strong reversal from that level for sure …. but not sure if the trendline will act as a magnet since it is so close ….
if you can make sense of this im happy for you. we shoulda just bought that
hammer candle back at the beginning of FEBRUARY and sat on our hands
instead of trying to catch the top. hindsight is 20/20.
Anjali,
If we pierced through $69.20 level, the next target is $70? I am seeing IWM will reach the target around $70….look at the long term TL (from Jan 09). Any thoughts? Thanks!
SPY Daily RSI is at 77.62. I’ve never seen it this high in my life.
IM GOING BONKERS……………….. i cant get a fill on my V PUTS @ $4.00 bid.
and now im not sure if i want one.
IS THIS REALLY A NEW BULL MARKET with Real UnEmployment pushing 15% ??
my poor brain cant grasp what is going on with the charts. how can i buy
a market that has not printed a red candle in 14 days. i just cant.
paid up for my V PUTS ………. $4.10
I heard somewhere that the stock market & the economy are 2 seperate things..
Thoughts?
That being said.. In TZA @ 6.96 risking .05 I love the thrill of catching tops & bottoms,, but since it’s a proven loosing strategy, I keep my stops tight..
If YRCW gets to .46 it might b interesting.
YRCW is dead, it will go to )0 (i am short since 4.40 in october) I don’t even follow it, let it die and go
to zero so i don’t need to cover.
Stopped out on IOC and just handed back my huge profits from yesterday. Up 12K yesterday, down 12,400 today. When do i learn?
I am the king of idiots.
The SPY115C Mar i sold last fri and mon have 275% added. The calls Zee sold
naked and i scolded him on (sorry zee, i make far bigger mistakes, far) at 04 and 06 cents are now trading
at ten times that.
If i was smart enough to give the advise and freak out over someone tossing cash, why wasn’t i smart enough
to play that lotto ticket at 04 ????
rich – could you email me at woo@focalequity.com want to send you something. thanks!
.Here is my very IMPORTANT forcast. I do not know if I can post my chart, but I am going to give you my very important forecast. I forecast we are in wave 3. The target for this wave 3 is 1175 on S&P and then we will will have wave 4 toward 1150 which is exactly 23% retrace from rise from 1086. It is very normal for that big boys retest the 1050 as prior improtant resistence. Then we most likly start wave 5 from 1150 toward 1200. I am going to load a huge amount may be about 25% SPY May puts once we hit around 1174 and then I will take 75% profit off the table at 1150. That is my plan . Watch the market closly. SWBB
I get 1171 as a top on SPY ??? Will not short but step to cash at that level.
Same, you sure about the 1175 ? Check with the BB and see cause i get 1171 from the medium girls
theory.
With the VIX at 16.50, I’m buying April 25-strike calls for 65 cents each.
CBOE Volatility Index-VIX down 6%; calls active on 92,489 contracts
—————- IM GOING TO HAVE TO QUIT FOR A FEW DAYS ——————-
im going to go crazy. this EXPE vs UTA is the last straw for me.
UTA ……….. FLUSH WITH CASH … growing and zero debt…………… down 2.3%
EXPE……….POORLY RUN … cant keep balance sheet current…….. up 1.4%
the right trade is to ignore the FINANCIAL truth,,,, blindly go long EXPE and short UTA
US dollar testing Feb lows.
And gold and PM stocks weak on down dollar and strong oil. Gold usually tops out in mid March and HGD.TO
is a play at the price of an option.
I added 15K of HGD.TO @4.45
My reasoning is if fear leaves market, peep pile into stocks and out of gold and miners.
you’ve probably got that right Jimbho
does anyone have a 60 min or daily chart of spx with the trend lines?
Im looking for the same thing trying to figure out next resistance level…
http://social.focalequity.com/photo/spx-mar-16?context=latest
we are above the upper resistance with full steam ahead indicators
nothing but open air above here on the daily time frame imo.
im all done “guessing”
I was looking for some reason to go short, some indicators but had my ass handed on IOC short,
from now on i will go to cash and forget this short or inverse stuff.
NYSE and NASDQ margin debt at new record levels, higher than precrash or dotcom
if we crash it will be next week to sell puts to putzes.
How will they spin 95$ crude as good?
I am wondering when I can add to my edz in attempt to average down a little for the next pullback…I am getting crushed….China will you tighten already…please. If 43 breaks…looks like this thing is headed to 36…ouch!!!
————— AMZN ————- added more puts here…………….. im convinced
LAST TRADE FOR ME……………….. GOOD LUCK ALL.
as for the general market………. no idea like most
rich – email me at woo@focalequity.com so that i can send you something.
AMZN ………………… WEEKLY BREAKDOWN
IHS on the weekly breakout point of $90 ……….. +$50 pattern = $140
target was met
$90 + $50 = $140 less 50% retrace = $115 …………… retrace level hit
61.8% retracement of this move is $130.45………………. defended the 20SMA WEEKLY this week
and bounced back above this level.
need a close below $130.45 to confirm my bearish view. this WAGER is speculative
in nature and im ahead of the curve. if AMZN closes above $132.50 this week ill curl
up into a ball and hide in my cave.
THIS IS MY LARGEST POSITION
sent email WOO
Woo, if your emailing wedding invites i am a certified professional bottle dancer.
You may wish to triple your liquor order before considering the invite.
good call man, that sucker is droppin out!
Anyone here buyuing TZA?
Hell No.
Why not, nothing ever goes straight up !!!
I do not believe in triple leveraged. It is a scam that can only make you money in a full market meltdown circumstance. The decay will eat you alive.
I am.. look at post 6.. when IWM tried to get back into Jul-Sep channel back in Jan,, it got in only about this much, before we sold off..
Notice the volume on the Apr $7.50 calls for today. I’d use speculative money for this only. Too many times I’ve seen this down when the market was down.
Buying March Quarterlies and April $113 puts on the SPY.
we just broke north of ANOTHER trend line on the SPX. Even more bullish than before.
Yesterday on DOW I talked about the break in the trend line and the bullishness in the charts as well:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p54048515502&a=184607015
How’s that for a follow through candle above the trend line.
LOTS of stock broke out to the north side of some pretty strong trend lines. I wish people could see more of the recommendations I had on ETFs. Someone talked about TZA, I would be very careful with touching TZA at the moment. Consider the Leveraged ETF service if you guys get a chance. It’s less than a dollar a day. You get a lot more than just ETFs with the service.
What service do you speak of woo ????
I’m doing a premium service on focalequity now:
http://www.focalequity.com/service/ETF-PRO.php
focuses on leveraged ETFs, but does individual stocks related to ETFs as well. Yesterday I called for a rise in FAS, TNA, ERX. Had a minimum rise on SPX to 1166. All leveraged ETF recommendations are up 3%+ today. I wish more people were subscribed to see it. I don’t like making money alone when I’m providing a service haha.
awesome….how bouts a freeby woo…?????
thoughts on FAZ and USO. well one’s an ETF
oil is almost at years high..tho, with the daily engulfing..should it reach or retrace..my gut is it retraces trapping the bulls..
FAS I’ve been bullish. UCO It looks like it’s going to coil a bit longer before making a decision.
Woo,
Appreciate all your thoughts. I’m having trouble accessing this site from work. They have Windows 2000 the older version of explorer. The page freezes and doesn’t do anything. But that’s only when I click on the dialy commentary because the main page is fine. Any ideas?
Thanks,
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p70115547077&a=181738042
backtested 50ma and trend line. not a bad long position here short term with stops at this line.
woo, Are you sending e-mail alerts for your service?
funny you should ask. starting next week, I’ll be emailing each post to subscribers also. So each night when the posts are updated, you’ll get an email of the full post, so you don’t need to log in and be at a computer. The admins tell me that the images should work too in the emails.
I don’t know if the live updates throughout the day will be emailed out or not.
———— DID SOME GARDENING ————- V and AMZN behaving themselves.
IF YOU PULL up the daily chart of AMZN with 20 40 80SMA you can see how neutralized the momentum is in this stock. the 80 and 40 have gone completely flat. strongly believe this one will choose a direction soon. im betting the price goes lower. if it pops and closes above $132.50 this week ill be concerned.
the WEEKLY chart looks bullish for now.
——– V ————- pushing against the lower BB on the 15minute. the BB have narrowed
and the 20SMA is now $92. now looking highly probable on a strong move lower.
———— AMZN ———– similar action on the 15minute with volume ramping up. the 20SMA on this time frame is $132.50. 2 BAR BREAK of $132 with volume.
ALL THIS SAID…………. lately ive seen this bearish action not play out
however, i will
on any time frame. so i wont be getting excited
be holding out for more on both.
in both cases……… volume only ramped up slightly and prices decline.
Why the small sell off?
We hit the double top area on the DJI daily..
Thanks. We dropped quick.
Bernanke speeking / being grilled / Dodd Bill ????
Set up so peep can scream top and short market. Without squeeze JPM and GS would have to put own
bonuses up as collateral. Not gonna happen.
I’m wondering if the record margin debt for stocks and commods is by retail investors or bank hedges
that know something and going to finish line?
I think S&P will close at 1166 today. Tomorrow or Friday I will look for a short covering rally to my target 1174 where I want to load 25% SPY May PUTS. I explained my forecast above. SWBB
Looks like a bear flag on the 5min SPY we could go lower !!! Maybe ???
—————- IM THE INDICATOR ————– WHEN I ALMOST COMPLETELY CRRRRRRRRRRRRRRACK
at least for a scalp.
and leave to do some gardening………… go all in short
think the fact that they paint “deflation” as bullish had to be the BRAIN CRACKER. especially as the BOJ has not fargin idea what to do next as deflation impacts thier economy. what isnt bullish for America?
Jimbho…..I’m with you on DNN. Bought 2500 shares at $1.53 yesterday. I’m not seeing any major resistance until we hit the low 2′s. Thinking of adding here.
I am steady adding. Not a trading position, if they build nukes, they need uranium. So dam cheap
and avail in usa or canada/
See my euro shale gas play. A potential ten bagger sits in MNAP aka PMI.V on albanian oil and gas.
Gonna give up trading, too stressful, my money is made in long term buy and holds and peed way in
trading short term stuff. Why bother?
Look at BNK.TO bankers pete. Bought at a buck in 2005 and added at 1.31 in 09. Now $9 and
BKX.TO now at $3 was declared as a dividend or split from main. Again, albanian oil and gas.
Same thing Eldorado Gold. in at 2.28 in 2005 and $12 now.
lol like they say,, buy when there’s blood on the streets and sell when the greedy come out to play.. If today’s action wasn’t totally greed oriented,, don’t know what is.. In TZA @6.96 still,, come and get em bulls,, from my cold dead fingers… at break even ofcourse
I like your style.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/126779/Americans-Weekly-Spending-Hits-New-High-2010.aspx
looks like another bear flag here guys and maybe some more down action before we melt up into the closing bell.
i would like to see 1161 fib projection hit before 1173 area. but we could head lower than that.
i’m watching these numbers to see if 1173 is really the next short term top.
—————- V ————– last 3 down days on light volume like this
met up with buyers. dont feel the expected pressure. im going
to take HALF OFF if a buyers steps in at $4.60
FILLED ………… holding the rest over …. looking for the $90 level. see if volume
comes in for more than half an hour lol.
good call on UAUA yesterday for the drop. I got out at the 20 area when it hit my retrace and am not going to touch UAUA for a few days now.
V…be careful.. looks like it’s coiling and just brought down the RSI from being too overbought. 3 down days with today being the first sign of a possible short term trend line break down. still looking for my 95 short term target, but it’s definitely not a firm call position, until we break back above the trend line we just broke under today. good luck! you might get your 90!
——— AMZN ——— also taking 3 of 6 contracts off @ $3.80 hopefully
$131.50 IS BEING defended. the trade is so light its hard to say at this point.
FILLED………. with 2 minutes left. VOLUME RAMPING UP and $131.50 taken out.
HAVE A GOOD REST……….. see what happens tomorrow.
Rich –
Are you still short BAC?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p25088602712&a=190186487
It’s starting to look more bullish. Went above the 17.18 resistance again. above two major trend lines. this is becoming a bull, long position recommendation if you ask me.
BAC ———- big red candle a few days ago got me excited. the next day im off my position
as no confirmation. posted my frustration with this lieing bank and took it off my list.
im not wanting a banking collapse. no one does. im wanting risk to
be priced in ….AFTER I SHORT IT
Rich – need to see if we form a red candle tomm – that could be a falling three pattern …
Woo – where would you go long this ?
Short would be a break of the 16.50 level – right ?
Did my spring planting today.
Spending too much time in markets. Out of force of habit ended up Short Cabbages and long a triple
inverse alfalfa ETF.
I hope you guys enjoy the power of my forecast.. One hour before market close I posted the below statement and I gave an exact price that S&P is going to close today. Now look and see how exact big boys did what I told you they are going to do. SWBB
My post one hour before market close
———————————————–
Sam says:
March 17, 2010 at 3:11 pm
I think S&P will close at 1166 today. Tomorrow or Friday I will look for a short covering rally to my target 1174 where I want to load 25% SPY May PUTS. I explained my forecast above. SWBB
1166 is an important fib retracement… closing below 1166 means that we could see a pull back, but the fact that we got there so fast shows bullishness too, so yes you are right.
Sam has made some amazing calls on SPY and AIG.
He channels the Big Boys!!!
I was actually shocked by his prediction yesterday:
Market will either gap up or down or open flat. It will then either go up down or nowhere.
Not/can’t make this up. He was 100% right/
Now, if there was some way to profit off of this on a regular basis? I am too spineless to
buy or trade AIG for fear it will drop to zero the day i go long.
yep…good call on the 1166.
sell AIG calls, that muther trucker has so much IV in it, its crazzy..
SHORT $40 AIG MARCH CALLS.
Pretty darn good Sam!
This train is leaving the station.
I don’t see any major down moves until maybe towards September – October. As long as the Fed can keep rates at this level and the dollar doesn’t get out of control, we are not going to see much excitement. Interest rate projections is that rates will remain flat for the next five years. It would amazing if the Fed can achieve that though. People always say the U.S. is in trouble. Well the way I see it is that the U.S was in trouble but now the next shoe to drop is probably China. Idan and I should push some of our contributors to closely follow the Chinese market.
How can china be weak or bad when every single thing we eat, drink or buy is based on manufacture there?
Hate to sound racist, but chinese tend to be hard working, thrifty, well educated and the best employees i ever
had. They see opportunity in a way we don’t. They don’t take sick time, don’t make excuses and show up for
work an hour early and leave late. We owned a circuit board business that was closed by canadian pollution
laws and had to relocate in Kowloon. The water effluent leaving our plant had to be cleaner than the supply
water delivered by Markham– insane!!!
We had some renovations done on our house and the chinese crew worked 10 hour days, 6 days a week and
explained they needed the money to send back for parents, families and to buy homes. Yes, they were legally
in the country and could have joined unions but chose not to.
I know generalizations are unfair. I think we have lost the work ethic or it was exported away to china when
we weren’t paying attention?
yes, I agree that China is the next bubble, but the question is: Is the bubble burst at risk this year or 3-5yrs down the road….i sure hope it’s next week because i am paying dearly with edz and looking for the bottom to add more
Chris,
That is always a good question. Many people called for this collapse ever since China joined WTO but it seems every year they are proven wrong. So the truth is nobody knows but there is just a very high probability of this happening.
Jimbho,
Well the collapse of a country has little to do with its people’s work ethic. A lot of the Chinese “growth” is simply artificial. No country in the history of the world can sustain a 10% GDP growth for more than 25 years.
Hey all you options traders a friend of mine told me today and he is an option trader that the day before OPEX tomorrow to expect a pretty good rally then a possible selloff on opex Friday..My question is there any truth to that and why would that be…Thanks
PS: it is Quadruple Witching Hour also
^ see sam’s prediction above. He has been very hot of late.
In this type of a market environment there is really not going to be much excitement in options expirations. Institutions who wrote the call options want things to go up and those who wrote put options want things to go down so it’s probably going to be an even game. Volatility does pick up simply due to increased volume.
Interesting video with Mike Lewis “The Big Short”:
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/03/60-minutes-michael-lewis-the-big-short/
Take a look at TD.TO, up up up in the sky. I believe it trade on the NYSE as well. It hasn’t been oversold this much since 1996. Bought July 74 puts, short term target 70-71 CAD.
I remember I used to own 1,000 shares at $40, boy do I WISH i held onto them
See if you can catch it on the way down. You know what would have happened if you had held it….:)
Thoughts on the large blocks 116.41 SPY aftermarket. Market never traded there today or early pre-market.