Welcome to FocalEquity! In case you don’t know me, my name is Craig Simons from Boston. I used to post daily videos on StockTock. I’m another wounded bear that’s been calling tops for the past couple months. If you can relate, I think we both know why we were wrong… there were just too many of us. But lately the bear cave has felt kind of lonely. Commenters are blasting myself and other bears for their persistent pessimism, their foolhardy allegiance to Elliot Wave, and their utter disregard for the trend. I’m just fine with all that. While calling tops is a fool’s errand, and my time would have been better spent riding the wave higher, do not expect me to stop searching for this elusive top with a fine tooth comb. I consider this market to be presenting one of the greatest trading opportunities in a lifetime. For day traders, you can ignore this message, but for investors and longer-term swing traders, the pending move lower should be epic. That being said, I don’t underestimate how long the “New Bull Market” charade can carry on. But I’ll be ready when it turns. I’m watching the weekly SPX chart for potential negative divergences just like the 2008 market top. Of course, if the market continues higher, these divergence could become moot. Low levels of fear are common before major market declines, and fear is certainly low, especially given the shaky footing of this economy. Here are weekly charts of the SPX and VIX.
