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11
Mar
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Woo:
Here’s an updated 1 month:
I’ll have to redraft this for you guys in a bit. This 5 count isn’t necessarily perfect either and my 1 wave (1140s start) is completely cut off now, so this will have to be revised into a 2-3 month chart. We need a 1140 break to even consider a short position. I wouldn’t take a long position until we break into new highs, and even then, only for an intraday scalp where stops are raised immediately to lock in profits.
Idan:
We are working very hard this week to provide you with a new site starting March 15, 2010 called Focal Equity.
Focal equity is a merger between stocktock and khrnostock and will contain both the intraday commentary blog and a few services:
1. Focal Equity’s ETF Pro, which is brought to you by our very own Woo!
2. Focal Equity’s Alerts and Analytics, where you get the trades my hedge fund would be making via emails a few times a week!
3. Focal Equity Live’s Trading (coming soon), which will include LIVE daytrading videos of me with my traders. So you can follow me right when i make the trades.
The intra-day commentary will stay the same with minor changes. Hope you will like the site. I love this community!
————– 1147 ————- CALLED for a daily close at this level to complete
the move. yesterday we had a close of 1146. maybe that is close enough.
so long as we do not close above this level i remain NAKED short. a little
bit less on the table now but hanging in there.
——– ONE MORE CONCERN ———-
ULTRA BEARISH BOARD………… seems to be ULTRA BULLISH
March 11th, 2010 at 2:38 pm
When you become bullish, then I will worry.
March 11th, 2010 at 2:51 pm
LOL.
With a market like this, its hard to stay awake. Gotta take a nap, bought
SPY puts.
BURGER KING–
This is the third time i’m averaging down on my short position..went full short at 19.51.. STOPS AT 19.60 this time.
It’s been inching up the whole day… offering a 1% dividend but yet up 5% for the day.. somethings wrong here.
March 11th, 2010 at 2:57 pm
BURGER KINGhas its own rule and it is difficult to trade. My favorit is MSFT it is very easy to trade. Look at the bull flage along with rising wedge that was created for last few days, once the wedge break then it drop like a rock. I think MSFT may have just one exhuatsed gap to complete its bear rally and then just watch how it drops.
March 11th, 2010 at 3:08 pm
BKC–
Looks like a blackbox is trading it, at every 51:00 time, theres a huge buy-order.
im out of my shorts.. cant win against big money. -0.8% on the trade oh well.
-
March 11th, 2010 at 3:36 pm
I was right, there’s so many call options for BKC $20 that it almost amounts to SPY 116 calls.. lord was I in the wrong short today.
March 11th, 2010 at 3:37 pm
BKC, BREAKING OUT, CALLS ARE CHEAP, 10000 CONTRACTS TRADED TODAY.. WOW.
picked up 200 TLT @ 90.00 (not for a short term trade)
Morris, are you planning on holding or selling FAZ?
March 11th, 2010 at 3:40 pm
I’m still holding it but I’m down about 1400 right now (I have 3000 shares at an average of 15.25). I’m going to hold it overnight and we’ll see how it goes tomorrow. Best of luck to you!
March 11th, 2010 at 3:43 pm
ditto, thanks, I like your patience but I fear this beast.
———– CUT MY —— HOG PUTS IN HALF ——- in and out same price.
at gap resistance but the FULL STO on the daily looks like it wants
to push back up. better safe than sorry. this is nutso.
…probably I am crazy……but I am following my nose
…..just set order to buy some SPY Puts if it reaches 105.6….looks like 161.8% is a magnet for it….
March 11th, 2010 at 3:24 pm
..and AGAIN…..PPO 15 min cycles are fading…and the last one is bullish…..
..the drop wil only reach another Fibonacci level…this is what I think…
March 11th, 2010 at 3:41 pm
What a crap, boring day. Am holding SPY puts but sure they will use
the close to drive to new peak.
MM on IOC driving to a higher finish after ripping off the world all day long.
March 11th, 2010 at 3:42 pm
What a crap, boring day. Am holding SPY puts but sure they will use
the close to drive to new peak.
MM on IOC driving to a higher finish after ripping off the world all day long.
fkin last hour was setup for short to get fed
…
Stopped out of stupid move SPY Puts, lost .08 and com.
March 11th, 2010 at 4:03 pm
Jim – I mentioned the break of the triangle to upside at spy 115.09 -115.15 .. you didn’t see my note ?
March 11th, 2010 at 4:43 pm
Stopped out of stupid move SPY Puts, lost .08 and com.
Missed your post for some reason, cost me large for being dumb.
Logic dictates if they can run amarket for 7 days they can do it for 8.
I need to take a long break, my long stuff is doing great and the short
term trade stuff is killing me. The weak open and strong close is a daily
pattern on SPY, how could i miss it?
Don’t ever bet against the trend like stupid over here. Got greedy and
screwed. All that huge risk on IOC, PSYS FSYS and SNV paid off and
i had to screw it up by going short via puts.
anybody see us going to 1152 or higher
March 11th, 2010 at 4:52 pm
The moon alice, the moon!!
Standard set up here is to rally like its 1999 into opex and kill the market
the following week to sell put protection. Next week is fed week, i just
know they will announce an extension of QE by looking at what bonds are
doing and mort rates.
Bank of england did exactly that after saying no more QE. Results? Lower
pound, more exports and a roaring 20’s type of stock market.
Bulls in complete control here, i can see no reason to think otherwise.
fkin last hour was setup for short to get fked…
March 11th, 2010 at 4:53 pm
Say that again. Feel so stupid, even drew me in thinking they can’t do it for the
tenth time this month. Wrong.
I pulled the trigger I bought TZA @ $7.28 i waited all day..Tomorrow
we probably gap up and race to 1200 on the S&P…but ill take a
chance…If China raises rates tonight we could start out red and i
can always dump if we rally..
March 11th, 2010 at 4:12 pm
I pulled the trigger @$7.28 too, but it didn’t get filled. I agreed that China may raise rates tonight. GLTU
This is f’in nice. SPX closes @1150.24–a penny over the highest closing high of 1150.23 on 01/19. What a way to confuse the heck out of me.
Woo/Idan,
Where do you see us headed tomorrow? Do you think we gap up and continue higher tomorrow? Thanks!
March 11th, 2010 at 8:40 pm
i’m actually in the camp of… either a start of a push lower tomorrow or a gap higher and then a continued rally for a couple of weeks…. i’ll put a chart on the dow up overnight to explain why.
———- 1147 ———– broke. but my pattern is in tact. now im confused as none of my positions really violated anything. most just stopped short of targets.
took profits on some. got rid of others that are flat.
added to FHN short.
strangest of all… the propped up IYR closed on HIGH but did not make a higher high so SRS did not make a lower low.
HONESTLY….. I NEED A REST FROM THIS.
March 11th, 2010 at 4:31 pm
WONT BE POSTING FOR A BIT….. im not much help here.
March 11th, 2010 at 4:57 pm
I may join you. Watching and listening all day long just results in stupid
trades. Need a longer view on solid stocks and ignore the BS they tell
you during the day.
March 11th, 2010 at 5:19 pm
SP-500 Measured Move Up ,From March Lows: this also points to 1158-1159
http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder...
March 11th, 2010 at 5:19 pm
This is from another blogger I follow on disqus: joe8888
March 11th, 2010 at 7:50 pm
———– 1159.50 ———- if you extend my W3 target 1147
FIB EXTENSION ……….. 1.235 this is all i can come up with
as the next stop. im going to reload SRS …. cant go long
a market that looks like this. shoulds took more longs
at 1186…. shoulda coulda held longer is my name.
March 11th, 2010 at 5:19 pm
———- BA———- I WAS IN ONE DAY OUT THE NEXT ……… saw $70 and there it is. its like they have a magic fkin dial and just dial the number they want. this market has driven me to the brink.
can only wish this painting higher numbers = my bead business improving in the short run. i have alot of beads to unload.
companies wont collapse because the banks they owe money just extend and pretend rather than deal with it now. maybe i should be thankful.
IM TEARING UP MY BUSINESS DEGREE …….. ITS USELESS
IN THIS WORLD OF ” FAILURE MAINTENANCE “
March 11th, 2010 at 5:24 pm
how would you feel if also having a master’s degree?!!
—GOOG— boy was i wrong, dumped when it spiked above the D 50ma
—AMZN— waiting for a pullback to get rid of my puts
–FDX— did a trade this morning for a nice quick gain but may get in again. i think there is more downside to this one. seems to have tested the 87.50 level for the last week and cant break through it. 38% retrace puts it at about 83.25 which will be on top of the 50ma on the daily charts.
we’re at 1150 on the spx… now what ????
March 11th, 2010 at 5:43 pm
I sold some March $90 covercalls at 60 cents It wont get there by Friday
Hey Jim,
…most of the bearish bloggers are calling that this consolidation removed the overbought conditions and may trigger a new rally…is it time to be contrary?
March 11th, 2010 at 5:21 pm
Anyway below is an additional “test” for this bullishness. XMI is parked at 76.4%. I will be happy go long, besides my bear instinct, if market goes beyond the horizontal while line
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=d3ea4938-5338-47b7-aab9-1350060ffd57
March 11th, 2010 at 5:56 pm
Have just heard so many bullshit details of combust days, moon cycles
and spin dates hitting today that i stupidly listened. Gartley dates, etc.
All the stuff that never worked at any damn time in past was supposed to
kick in now??? LOL.
What is to say that today was not a legit change to the upside and a massive
rally? Everything confirms it, i can’t see a single reason to be bearish in the
least until we hit 1400.
If i were to take a contra view, it would be of gold and not markets
March 11th, 2010 at 8:28 pm
I thought it was all maxed out around SPY 115 but as the day wore on it all looked like a massive consolidation starting partially the 9th then all of the 10th and most of today the 11th. Around 1pm market time the averages went green and everything started pointing up so I went long and am holding long into tomorrow. I see no reason why the market will not continue higher.
What a bunch of small fry we all are:
SPY
SPDR Trust Series I
Mar. 11, 2010 Market Close: $ 115.45
After Hours Trade Reporting
Last: $ 115.55 High: $ 115.58 Low: $ 114.52
Time Price Volume
17:15 $ 115.55 300
17:15 $ 115.56 800
17:15 $ 115.56 12,000
17:15 $ 115.56 12,000
17:15 $ 115.56 3,000
17:15 $ 115.54 265
17:15 $ 115.54 235
17:15 $ 115.56 300
17:15 $ 115.56 235
17:15 $ 115.56 2,500
17:15 $ 115.56 2,000
17:15 $ 115.56 2,000
17:15 $ 115.56 10,000
17:15 $ 115.56 4,865
17:15 $ 115.56 100
17:15 $ 115.53 100
17:15 $ 115.53 1,500
17:13 $ 115.029 1,002,668
17:12 $ 115.55 200
. . . . . . . . .
17:06 $ 115.53 500
17:06 $ 115.53 100
17:06 $ 115.029 1,000,100
17:06 $ 115.52 100
Burnie . . . Just so pissed with self right now, had great trades on, nice inter gains,
and i know the market is not allowed to fall and still did a SPY Put to screw self.
I am gonna get broker to take off options and short selling, long only from now on. A
solid based fundy stock can come back after years. Not so with the others.
BTW, Zee, on personal level. . . hope you did not get hurt by the shorts. I did a lousy
job explaining how dangerous use of leverage is at times you are 150% dead certain. Did
a worse job of explaining that all you see, hear and watch will lead you wrong when you
need to be right most.
FWIW you were so convincing you got me to jump short LOL. I don’t blame you for my
loss today – - it was my dumbness. Never short a dull, flat, low volume market – - dohh!!!
March 11th, 2010 at 5:51 pm
…lol…they are killing all bears….
..anyway I have orders to buy PUTs triggered if SPY reach 105.6…lol…still trying to burn all my savings…just kidding…small amount that will not make me so pissed…..
March 11th, 2010 at 6:32 pm
Good luck bro!!!
If i stayed with just the long side trades i would not need to trade, lol.
March 11th, 2010 at 9:01 pm
I said this many times that I will not shorts anymore just long and long… today I started up long and boy… until 2:40PM i was just getting stop out with losses… then I thought no I should be short not long… guess what the sec I changed everything flipped… I am very mad at myself that i took 3k loss today.
If I had not listen to my stupid side of shorts and went long 2 weeks ago I would have made over 50k just for swinging but it went other way… and gave back over 19k
damn that hurts.. I really worked hard this time
March 11th, 2010 at 10:11 pm
…sad to hear it….I am already having huge losses
March 11th, 2010 at 9:32 pm
Hey Jimbho, i was trying to short a dividend stock before the ex-div. date and I got squeezed. The stock was Burger King. Usually my strategy is very effective, but it just so happens that the day I go and short BKC, there’s an black box trader buying 10,000 shares every 10 minutes.. not only that but more calls were traded in BKC then the SPY 117..
as for my shorts, they’re fine. they’re all 117,118,119,120,121,122 STRIKE prices.
i havent went short the SPY high.
btw, my shorts are going to be held for 1-2 weeks.. its not a daytrade strategy.
gl. btw gd cll on fsys!
March 11th, 2010 at 9:33 pm
** i havent went short the SPY directly ..
** all my shorts are short OTM calls.
March 11th, 2010 at 10:30 pm
You wrote naked calls.
Careful, keep an eye on that!!!
FSYS and SNV made my day but shorting the SPY screwed it all up.
As I told you guys this aftertnoon when market was down a rally happened excatly as I said. I think we could either start dropping from here or we may have a exhusted gap up and then fall hard tomorrow. Although I am not technical and i do not want to be but if you look at the entire rally that we have had in last few weeks we have a abc pattern and now c=a, so it may be the end of this rally. if not I assume another run up toward 1060~65 and then fall hard. SWBB
Like I said before, I’m bullish. Watch for a large short squeeze tomorrow.
does anyone have advice on layering a trade, like starting to and adding to a trade, it seems as though everytime i see a trade that is extended it gets more and more extended and that kills you if you are using options.
thanks
March 11th, 2010 at 7:59 pm
..it is my advice but currently I am not using it …reason…my own trading system is not working since Options coding was changed
..trading naked option is suicide…or must have tight control to your stops…otherwise time will work against you and they will lost value…
…Option are instruments for hedging….they are great for it….in particular I like spreads, mainly debit ones because they provide a cushion for losses…by limiting your profits….
…trading is continuity….having profits and minimizing losses during a large time frame
is there any way to blocked option to shorts on TOS? I don’t think I will ever listen so I have to forced this not to allow me to short
nastrades replied:
March 11th, 2010 at 9:01 pm
I said this many times that I will not shorts anymore just long and long… today I started up long and boy… until 2:40PM i was just getting stop out with losses… then I thought no I should be short not long… guess what the sec I changed everything flipped… I am very mad at myself that i took 3k loss today.
If I had not listen to my stupid side of shorts and went long 2 weeks ago I would have made over 50k just for swinging but it went other way… and gave back over 19k
damn that hurts.. I really worked hard this time
March 11th, 2010 at 9:07 pm
is there any way to blocked option to shorts on TOS?…..sorry I did not get what you mean
March 11th, 2010 at 9:36 pm
I think he’s kidding, but you can always request to switch your margin account to cash, that would prevent you from going short– the funny thing about these markets is that the bottoming process takes about 2 days.. the topping process takes 5-7 and leaves you with maximum pain.. PRETTY UNFAIR.. But if you know how the game is played, PLAY BACK HARDER.
March 11th, 2010 at 9:41 pm
no really I am not kidding… what i meant is to block order type sell short… I want to get over with the fears of seeing everything crash the sec i go long… it’s been a year i been fighting this war but i can’t win
March 11th, 2010 at 10:34 pm
I just removed my options and short authorization. too destructive.
Takes 2 weeks to register if i decide to put it on again. Did it at TDWater
and Etrade. Forms just going in to Interactive. I don’t even want double
inversers, screw it.
To everybody who is tired of being short, realize that it’s not suppose to be easy. The whole world knows SPY 115 is resistance. You think they’re going to tank the market as soon as we touch it? Give it time. Give it volume. But more importantly, be patient. Patience pays. One of these days we will drop 1% (I know, this sounds impossible now but that’s what MMs want you to think) and you’ll be kicking yourself..
just trying to help.. turn date is march 9th.. then again the 1 year cycle could be in play, if it is it means a 300 point correction will start (sounds stupid I know)..
Oh yeah a word about turn dates, when analysts call them, the market is not suppose to drop 2% on the exact date.. all it means is that there is a higher probability for a reversal.. and in a game of stocks.. you want as high of a probability of a trade you can get..
I know I’ve mentioned being short calls, however they are OTM.. one of these days the market will fall 1%… and then ill be happy.
March 11th, 2010 at 10:13 pm
…I agree 110%…
March 11th, 2010 at 10:19 pm
According some historical data, bears will suffer some additional days. At least until tomorrow….
http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com/
lol…I remember all those cycles….phi date…moon phase…what is the next?…..woman periods?….
March 11th, 2010 at 10:29 pm
burned bear.. you may have just discovered the holy grail.
March 11th, 2010 at 10:37 pm
1% is nothing. No risk reward.
Funny, last year at this time no one had a Bradley turn date, now suddenly the
world is call a bradley reverse day. They don’t work, never have.
March 11th, 2010 at 11:05 pm
…agree…I don’t care about those cycles….listed them only for fun…