Idan 2:36pm EST
I am taking my additional short on CLNE as we are up at my target for this rally at 19.47-19.50… This time i’ll be shorting twice as much bringing my average cost price to 19.28, and I am going to put a stop around 20 assuming this market does decide to go higher, which is what it looks like.
Woo:
9:28 am PST:
1 month SPX
Idan:
12:34am
The uup or dollar ETF is showing some slightly bearish signs here, as it may be forming a H&S formation. You can see very nicely on a daily that the target of $24 from the inverse H&S was practically reached but now we have a H&S on the 60 minute (shown below). That said, notice how the last push down, or the right point of the neckline is a little higher than the left side, which makes the H&S not as strong usually.
Alright so far FAZ and SKF broke all time low SRS is just a few pennies away. After that I predict a reversal. Let’s see if that plays out.
Jimbho, this site is full of helpful traders and nice people. Traders are free to express their opinion, right or wrong. I am a beginner, and I also voice my opinion.
You do not have to agree with Sam and Zee. But your constructive suggestion or recommendation will help much more.
We’d like to see you place more trading postes so other traders can benefit from them.
Kind regards!
well look at how this stocktock community has matured.
jim – play nice. i know you’re poking fun. let’s tone it down one notch, but just one notch. appreciate your posts, questions, and analysis by the way.
pete, anjali, and others – thanks for trying to keep the peace. it’s hard to find uncorrupted stock forums these days with all the trolls and idiots out there.
now let’s make some money =)
Hello Woo,
what are your thoughts about IWM
appreciate your time Thanks
Richard – UTA – what are you seeing here … there may be a trend shaping up – but this is banging into major resistance at 11.14 – is this a day trade ?
EARNINGS ………. MONDAY MORNING
gamble gamble. i got in when it hit $10.50
at Q3 2009……… they have $23,492,000
at Q3 2008 ………they have $12,565,000
this is cash on thier balance sheet.
they have a 4:1 current ratio. compare that to many today holding 1:1
they have no debt
common equity is around $4.00 per share.
common equity in FORD is around — minus $2.00 per share
if you own a share of UTA vs FORD you hold $6.00 more in CE. the price
of the shares are 30% lower. and you dont see anyone saying buy UTA.
im short FORD and im long UTA. i care about FUNNYMENTALS
but first i must like the chart. i like the UTA chart.
CAVEAT EMPTOR. this stock can open up on monday $9.00
Just out of curiosity! why are you comparing Ford with UTA?
im not really.
all im saying . what you hear pumped on TV is not all that it seems. some stocks under the radar have a much stronger risk reward.
when you buy the PUMPED FORD stock you own nothing. common shares are last on the list. that is all im trying to point out.
Personally I would pass on this based on the daily
– not high probability IMO – maybe take some off the table EOD on a nice run … I am just starting to look at earnings and guess in last 2 months – you have a lot more experience 
sadly ive been watching this stock for days. should have pulled the trigger sooner and im sure you would have too. with LZB i got in the last minute pennies from the bottom of the pull back. minutes after i post some of these they take off. oh well. same with the NDN play. look at NDN now. dont play
that many stocks long and if i skipped the short side and played the few longs i post in a big way. id be up alot of cash.
LOL – looks like AAPL want to get to 220 today
…
Cramer says…………ALL ABOARD ……. the gravy train.. last chance
he is too funny. last chance. like it will never be sub 220 again.
finally broke that long term trend line i was talking about and broke into a new area. aapl is a monster…
WOW! Monster is right.
Do you have any ideas of upper range?
Holding some shorts…
I have 220 as first tgt – round number … but from a TA perspective 226 is my trendline …
LOL Woo – just glad I closed out my losing 210 puts a couple of days agoo …. thought it woul do this – but missed the move …
not losing money and losing less money are all just as important as making money. great job getting out early. aapl was looking scary for bears. keep it up.
my crystal ball says short term 222 on aapl, longer term 239.
222 …………… geez woo. you join the 6 band wagon?
if BAC closes at $16.66 ill fall off my chair.
lol. i don’t make up the numbers. it’s all in the charts
Woo – can you share how you come up with those numbers ?
magic. fib projections. trend lines. EW. but mostly magic.
AAPL update from Dan:
Update 11:30 AM: Finally getting some clarity on Apple. I have the wave (4) as a triangle because the C wave looks like a typical complex C wave inside a triangle. Also that means there may only exist a “thrust” move for the final wave to new high which it has made a new high today already. We’ll see I guess.]
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S5Exmx2V_-I/AAAAAAAAEPk/fEVUFm5nMtY/s1600-h/aapl.png
Update: The inverse head & shoulders pattern is now in play. We had hoped for a brief pull-back but, the pattern’s neckline has proved impermeable intraday, a major positive. That neckline at 1119, is near-term support. Technically, the overall picture is good coupled with leadership coming from the small caps and technology. Providing the S&P 500 can hold the rally into the close, we should see a test of 1150 early next week.
—————- EW —————- for AIG for a good laugh
based on weekly closes lol.
top $1400.00
bottom $6.00
im long the CALLS looking for CLOSE to a 50% retracement by MARCH 19th
this should give the FED the money they need
their staff is working hard
tonight programming the computer to create the wave pattern completion
over the next few weeks…………….. TARGET PRICE $666
amzn is looking stronger. above a fib, which is above a trend line.
shhhhhhhhhhhhh … im short that.
its putting a black topping candle in just above the DAILY 80 SMA
fake out break out. this stock is FUNNYMENTALLY flawed. and
of course we know that dont matter. but it is expensive unless
it can double sales this year.
richard -
here’s my zoomed amzn chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p76360816806&a=181646175
see that trend line holding? be careful =P
im never careful lol. i only got in and out of BA within 60minutes. this one i want to see more before i decide. so far so good imo.
thanks for the great chart… on the fence like always.
Woo – would you take a swing trade short at 1145 for a retrace to 1089 / 1093 ?
…. or do you think that playing the break of the TL @ 1137 is a better swing ?
i’m not sure if i would play this area at all. it might not be a bad idea to grab puts with next month options, if ur willing to deal with possibly decay. you’re risking up to 10 points of rising though.
RSI is back to even already on the short term 5 minute chart. craziness.
—————- SRS ———- death area………. double bottom most hold or we are all saved from those empty offices, malls, industrial buildings ever losing value. they cant lose value if no one can sell them. the new value can not be stated unless sold at market value.
no matter what the price……….. im doubling down on these calls at 1145
never a great trading plan but i cant bail out and rebuy unless i bailed out yesterday. yesterdays gone yesterdays gone.
full short
happy week end everybody
and keeping over the weekend
…more burned than ever…..probably I will take a break……
———– AIG ———— close above $28 is very bullish. hopefully its not just a call selling trap. the 20SMA is closing in on the 40SMA and the volume is decent. target $29+
think this is a simple A B C ….. so far
A = $22 to $27 = 5
B = $27 to $24 = 3
C = $24 to $29 = 5
WOO. … would you exit at $29 ??
Richard…. I like 32… but I am a crazy bastard
omg…AIG is an ugly chart…
i would wait for 28.52+ for bullish.
Woo – can you share your AIG chart ?
—RIMM— got short yesterday, holding over the weekend
I admit that I was wrong on AIG yesterday, stock is heading to 30. Big boys lied this time.
those b*stards
it’s ok sam. you’ve been making a ton of good calls. hope the losses help you sharpen your skills. good luck.
GIGM is up again $3.18, I’ve put a sell order for my calls @$0.90, bought in @ 0.70. Resistance at $3.20.
remember this. the bulk of calls bought before
we bought them were plays after earnings.
———– WFC ———– BAC ————- yesterday i took longer term puts
on both these banks. todays price action has me wanting to move over
to BAC for all the position. selling WFC puts … buying more BAC puts.
WFC is approaching a triple top area and the chart looks much stronger.
dont bet against the BUFF MEISTER.
set my order. hope for a slight pull back.
MONDAY….. i will add to my BAC position. unless of course
we get to 1145 at the close. never say never.
sold hte WFC puts $0.10 pull back in WFC brought a bidder.
From Feb 25, Goog is moving up everyday
Holding my K.TO puts, modest loss.
———– WILL THE DOOM AND GLOOM RE-EMERGE on CNBS next week ?? ———
we all know the games we just dont know exactly when they will be played. they have just crushed the shorts here. squeezed every nickle out of them. they sold CALLS to the moon as emotional traders took SPY 116. now we find out if they screw them all over next week with a decline or sideways price action.
maybe just maybe screwing the bears is making enough profit. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE is clearly a lagging indicator. it follows MARKET EUPHORIA as this marketing machine is broadcast on your daily news. MARKET UP = CONFIDENCE UP . is confidence enough to turn the economy into something that benefits everyone? even i hope so.
Maybe things aren’t really as bad as you think they are? Permabears always eventually get fried. The market is still down 25% from its peak.
where i live things are horrible so i guess that doesnt help.
maybe just need to move to another city
Don’t you live out of the country?
im in CANADA. where PIMCO says to put your money. my friend, all you hear on TV aint true. things arent so hot in some parts here too.
Idan, any thoughts on gold?
GLD did what i expected, it backed back down… unless it breaks that 112 level on the daily i would still favor downside. Once it breaks 112 go long.
Thanks Idan!
————MTH———- i have the APRIL $22.50 PUTS. just parked it on that price. my guess is it is held here to unload some calls. this is the price to screw the most people
you can see the price action through OPEX last month as this stock just huvvered in this tight range for 6 days.
if you have any puts this market may give you next week to get out if you are lucky. that is the price pattern im seeing. any decent decline into FRIDAY of next week im taking bearish money off the table.
if we trade in a range for 10days. yuck.
Idan,
Whats your take on CLNE now?
You got my take right on the blog. But i know 2-3 traders that played the trailing stop and already got stopped out with profits the second day of the trade.
IOC is having the fight of its life at the 63.50 area lol.
that donkey stock is getting close to oversold on the daily FULL STO and has not budged much. how does that work?
you have to wonder why GS came out and said they are bullish on NG. how many companies did they invest in counting on $10 NG prices?
they were pumping GS on CNBS yesterday. guess they see the chart looking a bit bearish. same thing when AMZN was getting close to cracking.
i think IOC is going to drop hard soon…but i could be wrong.
On this strong a day i can’t believe my IOC longs are red !!!! No volume
either ?
Ouch. This is on your head Woo, you jinxed me
at one point do we start drinking beers?
——– ACI ———- holding puts ……… all it has done is run into resistance
if the market is topping out the next move for this stock should be sharp.
bidding for more.
I got out yesterday for a scalp Rich, just be on the look out as these ones can keep running higher. I’m keeping an eye out for Monday to see if I should buy puts on it.
Intersting view from Chicago puts
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDZ0_5k3-oE
look at the volume in UTA .. holding up nice.
If I were you and I get 11 into the close, I would close a lot of it and keep a small runner position – lottery play
for this ……….. i didnt take enough to close some. since the $2000 MTD
fiasco im being more careful with illiquid options. ive never lost $2000
in one position. usually play in the money.
you can see with AIG i only put $800 in and took $1325 out.
this market is creeping me out.
your video explains all this very well. computers are front running this thing making shorts cover over and above a reasonable price. if this money needs to come out for any reason its going to be a blood bath as thier clearly is little bid under this market.
————— AIG ————– im taking profits. this just feels like a show to sell a bunch of calls out of the money. its been huvvering at resistance forever.
not worth holding over the weekend for $0.75 ………… RING THE REGISTER
SOLD … $2.65 …….. 5 CONTRACTS ……… gain of just over $500
it looks like it goes to $29 but it also looks like it can just trade in a range $25 to $28 and then the options just decay over the weekend and more.
price alligns with the FEB 22 candle top. RSI still in bearish territory. one of these companies saying they are buying AIG assets says they arent and this thing wont hold up imo. but im not going puts over the weekend.
see on monday if i short it again.
2 FOR 2 ………… made almost $1000 risking little capital.
rode it from $27.60 to $25.04
rode it from $26.30 to $28.40
Buy filled on 115 SPY calls @ .755 350 contracts total
Was not going to trade again, this is compulsive gambling not trading. Have never had
success on 4 turns in a day but see this evolving into a blow off top 350 points higher
early next week. I see up 250-325 by close as bets placed in advance of mutual monday.
Someone got the number for GAMAnon?
This rally has the same overconfident feel of the mid january rush to crash, this will over
extend as everyone knows the bernanke put is in place.
I think the last hour of today’s trade will be profit taking. S&P is 1037 now and I think it should drop 3 or 4 point for profit taking. Make sure you play it right. Next week FAZ is a good play, It should fly up as financial is extended very much
Forgot to say stick with big boys
Yes, stick it to the big boyz.
This was a set up to trap shorts and further inflate a dulling market, i would
not short here with your wallet.
Short S&P now at 1039 and cover at 1034 before market close. Go big boys
Sam, PSYS up 1.17 or 4%. The big boys are nuts, bet the big boys
need long term care.
Go big boy nurses, go with the nurses!!
This is what I am seeing …. we are in a W4 of 3 of 5 …. so we have one more push up and then sideways into close for W4 … then gap up monday for the W5 of 5 of 5 to complete …. on IWM … but I think SPX is the same …
——— ELY ———- keeping these calls. seems less risky over the weekend…. seems
RUSSELS………………… JUST HIT 666
……… BAC AUG 14 PUTS…………. trading at $0.66 … bought them now rather than MONDAY as we are close to my target of 1145
ADDED to my SRS calls.
SRS looks so dead that it feels like it goes to ZERO.
SRS is the most dangerous stock on earth, remember trading this at 145.
They will run it down to a buck or two and reverse split like they did with FAZ.
With the world calling for correction or sideways IYR will do a parabolic
blast.
if it fails my double bottom rule ill get out with a scar. im trading far out puts so they only dropped 20%.
made a note in my spreadsheet. close below $6.72 next
week screams …….. get out.
im just trading the chart. had a feeling this might happen.
Thanks Fritz, your VALE tip is up again already 30,65 +3,8 % .
that buying and PUSH TO 666 on the RUSSELS sure felt emotional. i sold it.
I still hold that we go higher – at least monday …. my first tgt for iwm is 66.92 and second tgt is 68
Out of MCGC @ 5.25.. +.25 volume sucks.. will wait for break of 5.40 to re-enter..
…..probably I will be wrong again….but everything is aligned in the top (daily, 60 & 15)…2nd time this week…
….painfull losses…..
…..injuried but still a bear …shorting this *
SRS has fallen almost 25% since i sold my last calls.
the last trade i got out at $8.52. bought some more calls on a hit of $6.85
that is simply nutso. this is so oversold now
my 4% double bottom double top rule puts price $6.72 close as the ut oh level.
still trading above that now. a close below $6.72 and im going to be concerned.
———- AIG ——— dropped below where i got out — dropped quick $0.40
You can’t oversell an inverser as it does not reflect its own value.
We blast off into close and the true danger is being short into a monster monday.
We could hit SPY 115 today.
———– AMZN ———– did nothing today. hung above the 80SMA topping candle. this must be confirmed on MONDAY . holding my PUTS . im stubborn when i think im right. the RSI on the daily went flat at the key level of 66
Be careful with that hovering above the 50ma,may hold as support
IOC is being absolutely useless lol.
welcome to world of DECAY
any technical signifcance to 666 on the Russels?
The number of the beast. World ends over w/end. . . dow still rallies.
The TNA call options roared.
IOC is a mo=mo stock without the mo-mo. Won’t stay that way for long.
i suspect they are saving some type of manipulation for opex.
———— AIG ———– cant close above $28.25 again. glad im out.
here is da deal. something surrounding AIG is going to come out this weekend? more problems or one of thier suitors backs out of an asset purchase.
MONDAY MUTUAL FUND MAYHEM … can they step
in and buy at these levels? find out soon i guess.
SRS held $6.72 at the close. $6.76 for a low.
THIS IS ONE WILD RIDE. find out next week if its BULLISH or BULLSHITISH
HOPE everyone had FUN …. GOOD LUCK TRADING!
Woo – pls can you share a longer term view 3-4 weeks ….
Are you thinking this is the end of the move up i.e. we reach 1144 or 1150 and then fall ….
Or
Are you thinking that we have higher highs after a retracement …. if this scenario, please can you share what you are seeing ….
———- FUNNIEST POST IN A BLOG IVE READ ———
they cant close any banks this weekend becaus the FDIC is broke. BULLISH !!
WHAT A HOOT
HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!
Idan – CLNE has earnings on march 10 th …. something to be careful off …. was thinking of puts but backed off when i saw that …
This guy seems to be right on:
SPX chart:
http://pugridironsma.blogspot.com/
Daily chart of SPX with targets:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_9Sqz0bUVklI/S5F6PUb0MOI/AAAAAAAABIU/-lzuC9EivUI/s1600-h/PUG+SP-500+Daily+Bull+Model+3-5-10.JPG
Yeah, I hear you can be pretty good at the this E-wave stuff if you are willing to take off the perma-bear blinders.
Boiler Up!
Nice, 1150 is pretty good resistance with the 50 and 100 ema’s converging there. Like how we closed up above the 50% Fib retracement again. I like your wave count. Other’s with more bearish views seem to be confused by the volume and staying power. Hope your right.
The perma bear blinkers blind too many an investor.
Looking for the turn dates, shorting in strong upmoves and other destructive
measures. Never label yourself bull or bear as a trader, it prejudices.
Call yourself a big boy instead.
I’m a bullish with the trend for now.
Yeah I hear he’s pretty good at this E-wave stuff.
Boiler Up!
so you would be a buyer on any pullback towards 1100 for a 3rd break of of 1150 and onward to 1200-1250ish or the 62% retarce?.
Third attempt to break I should say.
Yes, I’m a seller of the SPX above 1150 next week. Then a buyer on a pul-back towards 1105/1115 with a run to 1200+ coming.
Hi PuG – welcome to the site
I shared some of your analysis on the site this morning !!
i am extremely bearish, the blog is switching over to us getting to the 62% retrace and we havent even broken the 50% although it has gone longer than the 50% in time possibly, any options.
…burned…toasted….but still alive….
…talking about the truth…..this move invalidated any bearish EW formation…anyway because TA indicators are very overbought probably we will have some drop….but it will be very shallow….
opinions?
Hi Guys,
I am VERY surprised with this move. Anyway MM really wants to kill every remaining bear.
Now let’s talk about money. Below you can find my study about this move. Both formations, white (major) and yellow (minor) will match their 161.8% Fibonacci extensions at 115.60.
Today SPY stopped at 138.2%. Next Monday probably will gap up and reach that higher level.
Once reached this, everything will be so overbought that W4 will start. How far it will retrace? If W2=W4, SPY will fill today’s gap (112.50 – yesterday’s close)
Conclusion
EVERY bearish formation started after January top was COMPLETELY invalidated. Congratulations bulls, you have the ball are still winning the game
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=0628d4da-1524-408f-ba68-7c4f9f3d4263
What was odd today was the insane number of puts being purchased. You have to ask yourself, who is buying these puts.
Then you gotta say smart money : )
Follow Big Boys .
Smart money does not play options, too bad you do not understand markets.
Stupid, retail money chase puts. Real hedge fund kings like me have a saying. .
Puts are shmutz.
Zee, look at PSYS for the many personality defects you display.
‘Smart Money’ does not play options?
What about Swap dealers & Non-Reportables?
What about hedging strategies?
You gotta ask yourself Jimbho
How bad is your life, Jimbho, to come to a messageboard everyday and troll trolll troll trooll trolll trolll trolll trolll trolll trolll troll on the same person? It’s really sad. I’m perfectly fine, but you?
What’s wrong with YOU?
YOU need the help.
YOU keep mentioning me in YOUR posts.
Intraday posters don’t make money, of which YOU are one of them.
YOU are disillusioned thinking I care what you have to say when I don’t.
YOU insult me because of my age, clearly you are the one who is INSECURE.
Case Final: You are a disillusioned trader who picks on succesful traders because they have MADE it and you haven’t. The only reason I came back and posted last week was because I thought you MATURED.
Guess NOT.
Do not ever mention me in a post again.
Do not ever ask me for advice.
Karma’s a wonderful thing ain’t it? It’s also a bitch.
And with that, I’m off from intraday posting.
-Got an interview on Friday to become an executive of a Finance Commitee at an institution. A real job. You know what that is, or are you unemployed?
I’m making MOVES your NOT.
You love insulting my age, but by the time I’m 22, I wouldn’t be surprised if I’ve worked for 2-3 different hedge funds and 1-2 institutional/corporate banks and amassed 10,000 hours of trading experience.
What have you done by 22?
Instead of knocking people off, why don’t you tell us what your doing to better your knowledge in the markets?
You waste so much energy TROLLING which you should be using on ANALYSING the markets.
I guess you were never a good student when you were young.
Shucks.
I bet if you stopped TROLLING, and actually paid attention to TRADING, you’d start making money.
Just a thought Jimbho.
Wow, that changes everything.
I admire you!! I guess the commute from London to monteal
became too much. And just knowing that you interviewed for such
a major position whilst posting 300X as zee/sam shows what
a great candidate you are.
Not here long but seem to recall this is your 4th or 5th
time leaving for a senior position at a prop trading desk at GS.
Good luck to you. I am sure you will be as successful at the new
imaginary job as you were at annoying here.
I believe you, i really do. One suggestion. Submit your resumes
on toilet paper.
Just one question Zee. . .
When you take the Xanax pills, do you break them in half to get dreams of
fame, fortune and annoyance?
How did u know that insane amounts of puts were being bought? I was curious of that happening?
Rich the Rusells closing at 666 is no coincidence, especially being the weekend before a 1 year anniversary of the *infamous* 666 bottom.
The bottom was 667.
get off him Jim. There’s room for everyone here so stop breathing down his back.
I agree Jim – this is just getting too irritating ….
Zee – I agree …. on IWM, I am not sure if we completed the move up or we still have one more tiny push up …. my tgt for a short entry was 66.92 …. will be watching the action once we get there .
If the broader mkt moves up, then I think we could see 68 – which should be a big door for the index ….
Did not enter short based on your inputs for a Tues turn date and Rich’s estimate for a Mon turn date – you both have been very accurate in the past
I guess you will be looking to enter your bearish entries on Mon afternoon – is that right ? or are you planning to wait till Tues ?
Im my view, we are almost done with the wave up … if we see some sideways action on monday then we may have one more push up as long as we hold the gap at 1125 … if we break the gap, then we should start the move lower to the 1110 level as a first tgt ///
Woo – would be great to get your viewpoint over the weekend
– if u have the time … I know you are carzily busy with your wedding stuff at this time.
To All,
I have question on TA.
I have checked back to see if any of our Bear Market rallies if we had double top and I noticed that we never did.
So, my thinking is that if we do have a double top it could be more bearish and we would drop faster and most likely double bottom.
Anyone have any opinions on this?
Big boys want this market to go higher, but economy is not supporting a run away rally in my opinion. I guess we may see 1250 max on S&P by the end of year. If that is whatt is going to happen then I think we will see a side way for the entire year. In this case we may see S&P play between 1000~1200 for the entire year and then if at the end of year real recovery will appear the a runway will jump start.
I don’t know that big boyz wants to see the market higher…because the volume is low on the buying then past month of selling.
It might be that big boyz want to sell at highs and that is why they are letting it go higher.
why do you continue to post on 2 names sam/zee?…
now that you were outed as a /multiple id poster stick to the zee name . JIm your wasting your time with this child. Its like spanking a kid for rough play in the sandbox. Just let him play with his other child buddies who continue to praise his multiple id’s for calls made after the fact.
I don’t hate kids or kidders.
My fear is someone, anyone, will take him seriously and trade on one of his
insane rec’s. Weird stuff happens.
I now see that taking him on personally is not the solution, people should be
warned of the toxicity of his suggestions and the huge potential for loss in
trading insolvent short squeezes via C or AIG or shorting F.
Its tough enough choosing legit upward trending companies and staying afloat,
markets tend to be counter intuitive until they stop being so.
I suspect zee is also posting as anitang and constantly high fiving his decisions
and choices.
Do your own DD, learn to sort out between those lying and those in need of
chemical assistance.
I did get a laugh out of his “you are a virgin” comment, lol.
At my age, its worn near clear thru.