2:18pm
Ford (F) might be getting a little ahead of itself right now… i would like to take a short around 12.90 if i can get it, with a stop in the 13.05-13.10 range.
3:12am
I still am unsure of what is going to happen in the general market (SPY) in the next couple of days, but the SPY has tried to constantly break back into the megaphone formation and yet has failed. We keep getting DOJI/Spinning candles and unless we get a massive rally in the next day or two, i’m going to favor the downside here. Here’s a daily SPY (retests are circles):
That doesn’t mean i’m playing the SPY at all. In fact we are up already on our short on CLNE, which i think could see some major downside. We went short yesterday at approximately $18.78 and can put a profitable stop tomorrow if it continues it’s trend lower. CLNE also broke the $18.60 support between the double top formation, which is a great sign for the bears. I would like to see more downside on this name tomorrow.
———– ELY ———- this stock has common equity equal to the price. but the main asset on the books is golf clubs
…….. anyway. looks like a possible breakout could come tomorrow. its possible alot of the supply above this price was taken out in those two red candles. im long ………. and have the $7.50 puts.
added to my puts FOR CHEAP on the touch of $8.50 yesterday.
SUPPORT needs to come in at $8.30 on any selling.
they should hire TIGER to add some JIZM to thier product.
———- SRS ——— 20 hits at resistance on the 15min chart in two days. 6 hits at support. must stay calm ……….. stay the course.
———— I WONT LOSE THIS MUCH TODAY IF WE SCREAM HIGHER ——-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YNc9oB2kp4
Daniel is one of the most famous poker players… and Canadian.
those were USD$ …..
—————- NYT ————– im in long term $12.50 puts. im looking to see if thier is a buy opportunity. could that “news event” squeeze out that many shorts?
balance sheet not that scary. but at the same time they add long term debt @ 14%… this to me is strange. is thier balance sheet believable? if it was they could get more funds from a bank at under 10% .
this stock can make big moves. but i would not go long without some kind of insurance in place. could be an entry around now. this is the 50 FIB of that monster candle.
INSN seems to be in a rising channel..might attempt to fill in the gap from June.. Classic low volume pullback.. This one could double
wrong symbol.. meant INSM..
THIS BETTER EXPLAINS THE wild action in the futures causing so many gaps up and short squeezes to get us to this range…………. http://www.cnbc.com/id/35706725
BAC keeps shuffling bad assets into the GOVERNMENT gauranteed programs. refuses to buy back its own warrants. dilutes the share capital but improves the balance sheet on the backs of taxpayers.
two IRS offices have been attacked lately. im concerned for BAC as what they are doing is looting. no wonder MEREDITH says its a buy. how much she get paid to say that? she says all banks bad but BAC good.
guess now BAC shares are open to decline ??
$14 …….. August PUTS…. have good action.
took some.
shoulda have went with my first hunch and bought puts
when the price closed at $16.66
I tjink market will fall at least 10 point tomorrow. DDS is breaking out but it is late to get in. AIG is a good short and MSFT as always I said is bearish, i am wating for big boys later today to see if they can push it higher so I can go short on it. Airlines are done with thier rally, so next month they will fall hard in my opinion. Stick with big boys goys. Let all thank big boys for all these opportunty they create for us. Thanks big boys
Idan – F has a triangle breakout tgt of 13.15 – 13.20 – have been waiting for that before I go short ….
what time frame ??
its amazing they can send a stock so high and its books look like garbage. are we that forward thinking 2 years ahead…. guess so.
lots of yellers saying $20
Some are calling for a bigger than expected job loss number because of the back log of the holidays and processing a lot of them late. I think even if the market gaps up tomorrow it will gradually sell off.
…..very boring & dull day….we need more action…market is bleeding very slow….
..a lot of people is talking about cycles..something will be triggered by tomorrow or Monday…..
House leaders push toward health vote by Easter (AP)
AP – House Democratic leaders are pushing to finish far-reaching health legislation and hold a climactic vote in the next three weeks, aiming to overcome reluctance from the rank-and-file lawmakers while answering President Barack Obama’s challenge for swift action.
Someone I follow closely was saying they wanted to keep the market propped up till this is passed ….. this will also allow long term capital gains on all the stuff that was purchased by institutions near the Mar lows last year …. thoughts ?
————— WOO —————– heres some positive attitude for you
didnt you say BAC could go to $1.00 at one time? when you felt it should break out we should have all piled in short. the SHAREHOLDERS are not going to be happy about any of this. people who bought MEREDITH’S call on this have to be wondering …. “what have i done?”
what do you think happens next. fundamentally can BAC continue to shuffle all thier bad assets onto government guaranteed programs and not lose retail banking customers? the pffffffffffft going to hit the fan soon?
WHERE ARE THE FIBS ON BAC to confirm a breakdown?
look at the ……….. COMMON EQUITY on the books for Q4
could they, ,,, would they,,, wipe out the shareholders?
WFC putting in a topping candle here.
WFC still wedging. if you short, pray it doesn’t break out.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WFC&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p66284271555&a=162854003
OK – I had the same triangle …. would rather play the breakout on this …
this is interesting. when BAC was about to breakout you were saying go long and i said it looked toppy. but neither of us bit in
this one can draw a wedge. how im seeing it trading is in a box. one fake out higher and one fake out lower. in the box HS pattern. HS pattern usually plays out …….. fake out breakdown trap. retrace part of the head under 32% and then head lower.
now here we can see that and the neckline now backtests with a topping candle and RSI still in bearish territory. amazingly. I never saw a triangle in the chart until you mention it. and ive looked at since i posted to your chart in social.
pretty wild how one chart can be seen so many ways.
see how it goes i guess.
—————— CALL ME CRAZY ——————
took some BAC and WFC puts here. something
is going to come out of nowhere and we sell off
so the market can blame outside forces. lol.
who knows. WFC is putting in topping candle and BAC looks weak.
If we do not sell off today and we probably will not get below the 112.00 on the SPY.
Watch out for the upside surprise tomorrow I am not buying Larry somers telling diane Finnerin not to expect a good number tomorrow on employment.I think everyone is expecting a bad number and i also think alot of people are positioned short going into tomorrow !!! It all just sounds too neat for me,neat makes me nervous !!!!
the more you think about this number the crazier youll get
he says this so ill think that. but maybe he says this so youll think that because he wants you think this and you should be thinking that. its a tangled mess of the mind. we are either going up or down or sideways. his comments are a moot point because you can be scared as a bear and cover and you can think he is trying to make you scared my making you think the number will be good because he says its going to be bad. either way. still dont know what the market will do with a good or bad number. it will mess you up.
if he lies outright and the number is great how can he ever be trusted again. so you have to think it wont be great and that does not mean we go up or down. the market already knows what its going to do … right ?
———– IDAN ———— FORD….. good idea. the common shares have a true value of around $2.00. that does not seem to matter to the pumpers. not many companies that have that kind of balance sheet. they will have to keep this performance up for 2 more years in order for the common shares to have value.
studied this last night in detail. im very bearish on it. it will now head to $20
i got some APRIL PUTS
—————– XLY ————– just made a new 52 week high. yep, the american consumer is going to lead the way with thier 125% home mortgages and tax rebates. have to admit that this has me amazed. is this anytime to be bearish anything ??
————– PCLN —————– im taking profits. if you look at this on a weekly time frame this price action is meaningless.
made $520 ………… risking just $900 ……
volume of trade picked up today and it found alot of support at $230
Great trade !!
Question about pattern day trading, let’s say you have $20,000 in your account and you do the following trades.
Buy 100 C @ 3.45,
Sell 100 C @ 3.46
and do this 4x…
Is this pattern day trading even though there’s enough capital to cover margin requirements?
I am asking as I want to train someone but don’t want to give him $25k to trade 10-100 shares
if you are account is under 25k then you can only do 3 daytrades within 5 market days
Regardless of trade amount… got it.
Thanks.
…rule applies to stocks only…not options
Zee, i thought they’d have taught you that at hedgefund class in London?
This is really elementary stuff. Covered on page 4 or 5 of the OSC test.
BTW, how’d they hire you on the prop desk without a license? Oh,
sorry, forgot you gotta be 21 to get it. 18 with guidance is also possible.
High school out early today? Sign up:
http://www.osc.gov.on.ca/en/home.htm
“You can fool some of the people all of the time but you are only kidding
yourself without an education.”
yes it is. if you dont have 25K it would be restricted to cash up front for 90 days. you can ask for a one time exemption to have removed
Thanks for the help guys.
Jimbho, lmao your hilarious.
———— AIG ————– are we suppose to buy calls in this now that the FED needs to unload ?? the chart is favouring the bulls no? look at the daily.
took my profits on the short side at $25 ………… went long at $26.80
using ITM MARCH PUTS.
cant ignore the powers that be are turning this chart BULLSHITISH
Sell $35 calls?
Overhead resistance at $27-28.
Rich, I’m considering selling $35 calls, what do you think?
sure… im a buyer of premium here … bought the $26 CALLS naked. small amount. everything im doing is a small amount. because this feels more like gambling than ever. you have lots of companies trading shares above $10 that have basically no common share value on the books. its crazy.
lol does this include AIG?
this includes AIG. there is no value in the shares imo. nor is there in BAC but they propped BAC up and sold the warrants or said they did.
so im going to see if playing along is a good hedge against my other puts. i was short AIG at $27 sumping . covered at $25 .. now im long at $26 sumping and ill sell at $27 sumping or be wrong
All of these look high on daily RSI….
VOLC 84 RSI
PLCE 81 RSI
CWTR 83 RSI
VLCM 74 RSI
I’m going to short some end of day or EMA cross as a long hedge….
PLCE is one of my short candidates but i dont like the XLY at a new 52 week high for just one day. it probably follows through tomorrow on some hype.
im going to wait on any retailers.
You are correct… It is just not very often you are able to take a short position at these RSI levels…. So tempting to short all of these….
i think i just left a comment…but it disappeared….o_0
It was me cursing you for jinxing my IOC long spread.
lol….wait a second….
you’re the one who originally was short/put on this stock, before i even charted it hahaha.
you should’ve raised your stops and already been out of this call spread for a profit by now.
if this stays below 63.49 area longer, it’s going to be more bearish, and we could see a big dip into tomorrow towards the $61 range.
however, it COULD retest the trend line one more time, but it’s seeming more and more unlikely from the way the charts look.
rich:
BAC zoomed in:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p25088602712&a=190186487
Here’s larger picture:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAC&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p87228243666&a=163006777
fundamentally i hate this company. but fundamentals haven’t been working so well in this market short term. MM and government are crazy bastards that don’t care about ecnomics. they’ll never let BAC die…it has the word “America” in it. i still say it’s a short position under 16.60s. i would place stops above there on a short position, and then ride it down as much as possible if it’s going to fall. then raise stops to stay in the green.
but generally speaking, i don’t like the idea of playing financials at the moment. i bad play on financials can really ruin your portfolio. too much uncertainty and sideways action imo.
thanks ! …… BAC is on crack
well i have AIG calls too. so im balanced in the AIG calls
vs the WFC and BAC puts.
————- FUNNY-MENTALS or FUNDAMENTALS ————– woo you are so right. but it does not hurt to consider them a bit before going naked long. even if the balance sheet is a liar you can discount it a bit. how many shorts are left in this market after this last move higher and these days of sideways movement. if this was all to chase out the shorts and prepare for a decline the market did its job.
dont trade on fundamentals alone or you go funnymental.
i actually don’t trade on fundamentals at all. i take it into account, and if my charts go against the fundamentals, i might get a bit of an uneasy feeling, but i always trust the charts more. fundamentals are definitely important, but they haven’t done much for me in terms of short term trading.
i would definitely not advise going naked long here. if a 5 wave has finished, then there’s a good chance that a 3 wave down will come on the major index charts. even though it’s bullish at the moment, that doesn’t mean a 25+ point drop can’t happen.
————— SRS ———— will have to gap up in the morning to prevent the daily bearish crosss of the 20 / 40 sma. the 80SMA is still pointing steeply lower so the longer term trend is still down. maybe it needs to consolidate for another year
look at the weekly.
just anemic volume. no buyers? pure bear fear. the market is doing a good job of flushing anyone bearish out. its easy to see why.
….I am still holding my trades…
..I can remember last time..almost killed myself because I was out of the bear party…MM played for several days and I was stepped out at least 02 times…
…Now I will wait more…anyway I am leaving for today…I don´t want to check the tape any more
LATE DAY ACTION ….. BEYOND INTERESTING. why did this thing not just fall apart on this market push? BUYERS actually jumped over each other to get in. this is very wild stuff. the support of $7.12 failed to hit as supply was gobbled up so fast. light volume sell with 10mins left.
————– AN ————- still say next move is sideways or lower. it moved lower. it has done nothing but move sideways since and now its no longer oversold. cant see this flying high.
———- ELY ———- closing strong
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AN&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p70245178185&a=192490452
look how messy that AN looks, and the area it’s sitting. it needs to break a good amount higher or lower to be significant. this might be one of those good, sell calls/puts type scenarios…
agree….. im hoping it can fall so i can sell my puts for a nickle each
it looks like sideways we go. if you sell OTM puts and calls here you are probably going to make out good. they can balance opex with whipsaws getting people buying either side of the game only for the market to end in the middle. this is why im thinking JOBS is a non-event.
if the market is not moving by TUESDAY next week one way or the other ill be forced to just jump ship on my options. most are in the money.
———– AIG ———– buying more calls as it pushes against resistance. maybe they can play the jump the resistance game tomorrow ?
filled………………. @ touch of $26.73 im done for the day.
is I said indicators are bullish and SPX should not go above 1123-1124…….
——————- JOBS HYPE ————— what does everyone “GUESS”
my guess is……….. non event whipsaw noise 1125 … and im rarely right. think we saw the action today to whip out more shorts and that event is over.
based on todays close ::
1. non event. market open closes inside of 5 points
2. higher more than 5 points
3. lower more than 5 points
please post your “guess” it would be nice to see how many people are here
i have march 9th as the top, so bias is to the upside.
so you say the game is sell loads of OTM call options with a strong rally and loads of excitement only to make double top and head lower? ok.
No. The game is to naked sell OTM AIG calls
If it breaks $28, I’ll get out though..
Burned bear … your hourly PP curled up – pointing to upside with 15 min bullish …
Zee – the portfolio stuff that you were planning to add would be EOD Mar 8th ?
Exactly. My big money is short on March8th/March 9th.
The real winners r d brokers,, in this sausage day…
i never liked how the people making my trades for me have “broke” in their title…
Sat on my hands today – was really tough
lol.. Well,, for the majority of retail traders,, that’s exsactly what they do,, make you broke
Rumor that 2morrow jobs will up up 125K and all the bs was just to set up shorts for
a squeeze. Revisions will be bad but that has become the norm.
Bought Spy113MarC @1.12
If number as rumored we get the 20 S^P pop the dull market needs. If lousy numbers,
the afternoon reversal is well anticipated.
if this is the case how can the market trust any spokesperson from the government. and how can the government speak ahead of a number. if the jobs number is better than expected im tuning them out from now on. the market can go up down or sideways on any number but if they send someone out to talk about a stat … it should be honest lol
further to your comment. a rumour can be spread so you cover your shorts and the funds get in short at a better price. all of this is just jibberjabber no?
Someone who had pit audio access mentioned that GS bought 1000 contracts …
Watch the a/h futures run. Goldie will release the jobs numbers at 5PM.
They bought 2500 contracts, that is what moved the market. They know.
works for me!!
Like the gov’t lying and saying public $$ infusion needed? Like bernanke lying
and buying his own bomds forever? This is all about lies and selling em,
jobs will be super strong tomorrow due to census workers.
Best joke i hear in while was that current smoke and mirrors recovery was
built in china and that is why a jobless recovery will be the norm.
—————– ELY ———— closing above resistance.
going to close above 65 on RSI .. .last chance
LATE DAY POP…………… http://www.cnbc.com/id/35712396 ??
find it difficult to understand how they say they need to cut back because of the deficit and then we keep hearing of new $$ spent. will it ever end or is that all hot air …. can you trust a word that comes from Washington or Wall Street?
clearly im a bit of a moron as i thought these efforts were going to end this year before they put every american in over thier heads.
The intersting statistic was the last package …. they spent 300K to create a job paying 50K ….. must be some kind of wonky math ……
as long is there is any politician to be elected by public everything will be done to buy some time ( Print money ) instead of telling the truth. Otherwise people will not vote for them.
Whenever does government do the right. They wonna be elected again and hope that the disaster will come, when they already retired.
That is all the mess politicians !!!
Woo … on this one :
Anjali replied:
March 4th, 2010 at 12:54 pm
LOL – really that’s the Wave 5 that you are seeing too ????
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_9Sqz0bUVklI/S4_b8KvtYNI/AAAAAAAABGs/UxAl-EA68wE/s1600-h/PUG+SP-500+60min+Morning+3-4-10.JPG
Which one are you thinking the turquoise blue or green one ?
Or some totally different scenario – can you share
The blog for the charts / update above are :
http://pugridironsma.blogspot.com/
I think I shared this before …
his green 5 wave is similar to mine:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p16069223713&a=181738042
Woo…glad to know someone as brilliant as you thinks as I do.
Hi Guys,
I can be burned again as always…LOL…anyway I am concerned if SPY goes beyond 103, reason:
- it will invalidated 02 bearish formations:
– major one that is in place for several weeks (red dotted line)
– current minor one (yellow dotted line)
About the minor one, it looks like any ABC for W2. Formation is still in place but may invalidated by any bullishiness tomorrow
Anyway, I am still following my nose. Sentiment indicators are not following this bullishness
Some comments about PPO, my favourite indicator:
- it works perfectly for daily, hourly and 15 Min. I don’t know why but 30 min is not reliable at all
- 15 Min is very reliable for intra-day scalps. Welcome stocktockers because it is very good to show tops & bottoms
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=d9d5915c-44a1-42d6-9f0d-39fb0bcc27f9
I don’t like when PPO show any cross in the middle…not reliable at all…
Anyway, it looks like that bulls were able to win again…it is insane fight against the FED
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=16b6e653-2d52-4df0-b371-e45656cf328a
AM I READING TOO MUCH INTO THIS……………… HOLY DOODLE
LAST FRIDAY CLOSE………… BAC $16.66
TODAYS LOW SPX ……………………..$116.66 is this right?
what on gods earth is going on here or is this just coincidence.
……….. typo 1116.66
Holy doodle..
the last time the SPY closed at 666 was at 106.67 in feb
these 666 numbers usually signify top/bottom within 2 days, of course we only have 2 data points to compare:
march 9th 2009, and 5-Feb-10 WE CLOSED at 106.66!!
you have a turn date TUESDAY . i have the turn date MONDAY. so how can we get much higher than 1130 if we have this thing turning MON or TUES.
easy.
Friday gap up 0.5%.
Monday gap up 1%.
Tuesday gap up 1%.
——— URBN ——– kept my eye on this one most the day. in the end took no posiiton. but this kind of SELL THE GOOD NEWS may be a pre-emptive hint on a not so bad jobs report tomorrow. if gap down we head up or we gap up we head down. im expecting a nothing day as i stated today. this is all speculation and that is trading right.
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/urbn ——– look AH
not many answers to my POST 27 …….. not many have positions i guess.
GOOD LUCK TOMORROW.
Holding SPY Mar113 calls overnight, insane number, lol.
SPY ticked up in a/h nearly as much as they snuck under the wire at close,
the GS rumor was that the jobs number will be huge positive after a setup
of negative expectations by Feds. CNBC will be screaming that even foul
weather could not keep the recovery from leaping forward.
We may see the S&P at 1160 in pre-market on good news which they will
revise away later, lol.
Bernanke and the fed are convinced that a higher stock market is the solution
to unemployment, housing, etc. They point to the ‘Wealth Index’ stock indexes
provide. Dow 14K by years end at this rate!!
if we have SPX 1160 before the market opens that will be hilarious . hopefully AIG gaps up to $35 . ….. lmao. what a great prediction.
It’s okay. I am hedged long if we gap up on AIG :p
if tomorrow market opens gap up toward 1030~1035 then my granmother who doesn’t know how to read and write said also she knows she should go short.
It’s funny how people are becoming complacent again, vix is dropping, man I can’t wait from March9th-March 18th.. I’m planning to sell a ton of FAZ $14-15 calls when the price is right.
SO IF THAT HAPPENS WHERE YOU THINK FAZ WILL GET TO ZEE? 35?
No, not 35 more like $17-$18.
If FAZ goes down to $15, the premiums are going to skyrocket on the $13/$14/$15 calls.. That will be a killer time to sell the calls into March OPEX. Remember, FAZ will eventually go to zero. I just need to be right for 9 days.
on march 9th why not sell fas calls.
——— IBOC ———-
http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/IBOC/tab/4
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/03/cmbs-delinquencies-hit-new-record.html
the company profile not easily found just like the financials.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35643868/site/14081545 ……. they are in TEXAS
its all good BEBE.
EVERYONE HERE MISSED THE BIG ONE TODAY !!!!
TIVO won a judgment vs DISH (next is DTV) with a 16% short interest !!!
This will run to the 30′s on short squeeze and upgrades.
Long TIVO and short DISH/SATS
nice post