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04
Mar
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Looks like a Kiss of Death setup to me. Market seems to rallying the stock on hopes the gov’t will not institute the Volcker rule or some other form of financial regulation that restricts prop trading. Recent focus on healthcare has many traders thinking the gov’t may do nothing. I think that’s doubtful. I’m going to side with Meredith Whitney who is adamant that major bank regulation is coming through the pipes. Also, Goldman is risky in the sense that we have no idea how they make money. I mean, we know they make money by being smarter than everyone else, but even the smartest guys in the room can be on the wrong side of a trade. Does anyone know their exposure to sovereign debt, particularly Greece? If the stock rallies above the neckline and holds, I will have to reevaluate, but this chart looks like a classic kiss of death.
not unusual for a retracement of the head up to 32% ……….. would be $9 higher.
another way to look at GS ….. daily chart 80SMA. this is where prices were arrested. the RSI is above 60 and id expect the retracement on this pattern to occur and set many shorts over the edge thinking the pattern failed. price should be contained under $172.50 for the probability of pattern completion in your favour.
what is your price target?
check out http://www.muathe.com if you have not seen his GS CALL , self-sacrifice to $70 i think.
GOOD LUCK TRADING!
think IDAN got short FORD today. i bought APR 13 PUTS for $0.75
interesting bit about the gains FORD has made. considering thier lack lustre balance sheet this may just play out. would be nice. story came after hours:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35713692
can a story like this get shareholders to anticipate a sell-off and then create one
well before this date. run for the exits !! will see in the next few days i guess.
wrong again. My fav contrarian indicator. Newbies- don’t liten to this guy! I watched many lose their shirt listening to him predict glom and doom while the market clmbed and climbed last year. Me? I didn’t lose becasue of him but I did miss 2/3 of the rally before I realized he can’t see what is happenng becasue of his exteme downward bias.
March 5th, 2010 at 12:22 pm
oops- needed a spell check – but you get the message.
couldn’t agree more Valerie…. “we don’t trust opinions, we trust the charts”. very ironic that stocktock.com posters don’t heed their own advice.
the charts are saying (and have been saying since march 6, 2009) that we are in an uptrend. so if go short, then you are counter-trend trading. you are taking higher risk. so manage risk by keeping position sizes *smaller and quicker* than normal. do day trades or swing trades only against the trend. and use tighter stops. and never scale-down into your counter-trend position.
btw, resistance levels are only *potential* pivot points. when the trend is up, then potential resistance levels are less likely to hold, because the path of *least* reisistance is still higher.
the kiss of death on GS is a good example of this. the setup looked great. nothing wrong with taking craig’s trade, as long as you realize it’s a higher-than-normal risk trade, because it’s counter-trend (in the context of an overall medium-term market uptrend). it’s also a reminder that the most reliable pattern is the failed pattern (e.g.,failed h/s).
maybe stocktock.com should change its motto to “we don’t trust that the trend is your friend, we trust opinons”.
I lost a comfortable retirement because of this site. Yes I hedged. Yes I used stops. I was never 100% bullish or bearish. A good trader can be wrong 60% of the time, but Stocktock advice has been wrong 90% of the time and nobody can win with those odds. Kiss of death = kiss my a**. I have followed Stocktock for over a year. All my “play” money is gone and so am I.
——— MY EARLY POST ———- the hs pattern is in tact so long as prices stay below the $172.50 level and today at $170 you get your reversal candle. get short now and place a stop above at $173.00 …….. disclosure: i never will trade GS
draw the blue line from where GS was at 120.
The H&S still breaks down at the same point.
Much lower price target in the low 100’s.