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03
Mar
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1:04pm
We got gold hitting up at GLD 112… which is some strong resistance for a completion of the double bottom formation. Technically we can continue to go down from here, but if we break higher that’s a sign that GLD is maybe ready to make another crazy run up. I would side with the shorts for at least a day.
12:52pm
Let’s welcome CLNE to our short list today… it can still have slightly more upside, but it’s looking toppy on a lot of levels here. I’d like to take a nice short here at $18.78. CLNE has a very clean 5 wave move up pattern and might be forming what is a big double top like the S&P did back in 2007. The Fib retracements targets for this move higher have a target up at 19.40, therefore i suggest not shorting all at once, but I think this could fall 15-20% from current prices. Your stops should be eventually in the upper 19s.
Big wet says rally over
http://www.youtube.com/user/Bigwet72
March 3rd, 2010 at 11:01 pm
Big wet has been wrong for ever.
Why do you listen to people who don’t make money..
Hi Guys,
I do think that we will have a drop. How deep it will be, I have no idea. Anyway it seems a good strategy to look for stocks that may drop a little a bit (W2) and resume the bullish trend in full force again (W3)
I like CSCO because:
- recentely it invalidated a bearish formation and maybe it will reach January highs again
- if it retraces to any known Fibonacci level, it will pop up reaching new highs
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=80f52d3e-b9fc-4ef1-882f-453791816d27
Big drop coming ~ 2.5% in size because of cycle peak.. March 8th is a turn date.
SHORT 30% PORTFOLIO 1135
SHORT 30% @ 1145..
no need for intraday analysis lets make money.
peace.
March 3rd, 2010 at 11:20 pm
Can anyone recommend me a hedging position for being short the SPY?
Or should I go long the $USD and go long the SPY as a hedging tool?
Decisions.. decisions… hmm.
So here are my options that I thought about:
1) Long $USD, Long SPY (hedge)
2) Short SPY, Long C at 4:00:00PM (C has a >50% chance of gapping up) (hedge)
3) Short SPY, Long VZ or T
Or I can just diversify and do the following:
20% long $USD, 40% short SPY, 10% long VZ, 10% long T and 20% long C at 4:00:00 pm..
I’ll let you know my returns for the month at end of March.. Just notifying you of the trade in advance.
March 3rd, 2010 at 11:50 pm
Zee – miss you on the blog – come back and post
Is there a timeframe for the fall ?
March 4th, 2010 at 12:05 am
Hey Anjali, im trying to stay very focused.. with studies during the day, I rarely have time to post.. Plus I’m not a daytrader. It’s too hard. Not for me.
From Mar9th-Mar 17th they will be a 2% correction (high probability.. we have to revert back to the mean of 1100). On which day it will be? I have no clue, best to short on March 9th and cover as soon as you are up 1-2% on your trade.
Now if we break 1150 then the bulls are in full force (previous cycle high) and I’d just wait until SPY 120 to short. I don’t forsee this event happening because the recent rally from 1054 has been on LOW VOLUME. The rally from the failed H&S (869 to 1000/june-august2009) was made on high volume.. However, take a look at the momentum indicators on the SPY are they are all showing buy signals in feb 2010.. that is why I am looking to cover my shorts quick, and they are NOT going unhedged.
I have a 70-80% chance of my model working and me being ITM so therefore my reward/risk is as followed, about 4-1 odds.. very good if you ask me.
0.84% reward/0.18% risk when taking into account the accuracy of my model.
*assuming I hit my 2% reward, I am 40% hedged , and my risk is 1.5%
March 4th, 2010 at 12:29 am
Thanks for sharing …. when you say revert to the mean at 1100 what do u mean … where are you coming up with that ?
BTW based on OI, that is where SPX should be for opex …