1:30pm
Bidu is starting to look a little toppish. This isn’t a name that i would get in the way of. I would want a break of my red neckline first before going short, but this is starting to look promising (10 min):
1:24pm
Right now i’m waiting on SDS to make a move, i’m hoping that it could shoot a little higher so i can put my stop a profitable position. But if SDS breaks down, we might get a very strong plunge on the short side and a very strong push up for the SPX (we need to break 1123).
12:17pm
SDS long at 33.87, with a stop at 33.77.
12:08pm
We are about to reach a very strong resistance and what could be the end of this rally. Yesterday we did not break 1112 which was bullish but today we are reaching a double level of resistance. As you can see not only do we have strong horizontal resistance from past highs but we also have the megaphone formation support which was broken and retested twice. This is possible going to be the last retest before we either go down or break right through. Here’s a daily picture of the SPX:
———- EW ———- all who follow this stock ……… double topping
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/insider/trans.asp?symbol=ew
i dont really understand this company. anyone can fill me in ?
took ONE(1) only $95 MAR PUT……….. $200
would like someone to tell me more……….. IDAN ?? this was
your stock play correct ??
it has now made a double top but the RSI barely above 66.
what you think ?
Hmmm i’m not buying any puts here, nope… but i’m intraday trading at this point because the market still seems ambiguous.
That said, this is the perfect place to position yourself ahead of the market if you wanted to go short.
———– MTD ———— if i was able to do this over again. id short this now. looks like i overpaid for all my contracts and likely they all expire worthless.
THIS TRADE LOOKS AWASH IN ERROR.
the 40SMA has now crossed the 80SMA on the daily and it appears like a topping candle.
What a nice set up that is occuring as I speak. Reaching key resistance levels and notice the dollar taking it in the arse? Manipulation at it’s best. this ought to be good for a 50 point run.
VIX – oversold, can be oversold until Monday. If you like playing VIX options (one of the biggest casinos), you can play it starting today.
I won’t post for the rest of the day.
thanks fritz
MONDAY is the day ive been calling as the turn date. however ive entered most positions now. if we get to 1130 it is ok too.
Richard.. what is your idea of MTZ.
Where do you see this going/where is your exit point??
wait and see what it does at $12.91. if this market reverses weak stocks like that and MAR should outperform to the downside.
———- MAR ———- shortly after i added more position. starts to break down. trading below a very critical level imo. the 80 SMA DAILY
a close below the 20 SMA puts prices under all averages = $26.75
hi fritz, still long calls and happy. what do you think from here as for spx ?? thanks!
KO on the 10 min is getting squeezed by 200sma and 20sma
RSI and MACD point down. Could be a very quick scalp
Anyone see a dealth cross on FXI? Bought some FXP @8.40. GL.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
looks like BAM right into resistance ala black candle. but im not trusting what i used to trust because this market is not so easy anymore. too much hanky panky as it looks like liquidity has dried up.
Fritz – can you share your thoughts on your turn date … I know you were planning to go mega long on march 5 as a low …. are you thinking we move down from there now …
TIA
Woo – so what are you seeing now – great call on 1122
I see us going to 1127.38 to fill that gap and hit 78.6 Fib of the move down ….
Also, could you post your chart up and share how you came up with 1122 Fib – based on what … as a learning excercise
Welcome back Idan – where have you been – globe trotting again
Yeah sadly, i had to do a couple of things
Ford company symbol F is very bearish to me, it is making a bear flag that is telling me big boys will go short now. You guys see I give you very exact forecast for everything. but unfourtunatly some people are posting under my name with some bad links which disappoint me. If that continue I will stop giving the big boys advise to you
———– IYR ———- light volume rise into resistance. RSI < 66 and now this daily candle looking toppy. SRS may just be worth one more try here. im in as of yesterday.
—— XLF —– looks similar to IYR. notice price and time. if you look at price and time and the RSI this is looks more and more like the top here. we have traced out the same time from the decline to the bottom as we have from the bottom to this price today. however the RSI has not breached bullish levels. the FULL STO is overbought. so we have ground out a time line that is overbought but not bullish. this can all change tomorrow with a surge in prices. for now, we are in bearish territory with this considered.
looks like this last push up is a weak dollar play for commodity stocks .
if it breaks this 1122 area, then it can rise a good amount more.
i’m really curious how they are going to deal with this long term fib here, as well as the 5 of 5 that has either already ended, or is going to end very very soon.
if the 5 of 5 is really ending/over then we’d need a drop to 1093 or so minimum…
RAN a FIB from the closing prices in the daily. MIKE posted a photo in SOCIAL that points to this FIB. the 78.6% = 1130 even. on a weak dollar pushing commodity stocks we can easily make another 8 points over the next 2 days.
what positions are you planning on taking and what if any positions are you holding right now? Thanks
considering an IOC put position, but want to see more steady movement below the 63.49 area.
SPY is a hard purchase right now because it could be above a 1 month trend line, but is below a 1122 long term P1 fib.
if SPY breaks the 1122 area and goes into new highs, it’s a definite quick call scalp. i would raise stops on it, but look for a backtest of 1122 if it breaks.
IOC just broke positive after doing every single thing wrong in earnings
and filings. This is the ultimate squeeze vehicle stock as GS MS and WFC have
huge interests.
The Mar70 Calls are a license to steal right now.
Holding a boatload nearly a full days worth of trading?
1.30 0.55 0.85 1.40 248 5,879.00 IOC Mar70C
Look at the volume and price of the $60 P as a contrarian index of what they
intend to push this up to.
Do your own DD, my work says 71 and crash within weekend? Please share
your DD as i am an idiot and may further add.
— LOL @ JIM —- i went on thier site late last night and its worse than my grade school attempt at a website. this is clearly a trading vehicle only? dont think their is much substance in this company. went there to see the earnings information they promised. guess they didnt feel like posting it when they said they would.
pre — earnings GS comes out and says “BULLISH NG WE ARE”
IOC is an Enron spin off that began trade on the Vancouver exchange
under half a buck and rose to 82 when it found religion under GS and MS.
Its a promo, a shill. They got the VP on tape saying the stock is going to
$240 ‘although i’m not supposed to say that, am i”. Long story of how i got
involved on long and short side.
Here is a chart on NTRI Nutrisystems and the similarity from ioc to this
are remarkable. Same parabolic, same decline and gives good indicator
as to where ioc may be headed.
currently leaning bearish on IOC. 63.49+ is my stop area.
IOC broke the 63.49 area, and headed north a good amount. if it breaks north of the trend line in this area, I would be slightly bullish on it short term.
I still see IOC as heading south in an ABC formation with A and B already completed. this is not a bad short opportunity where it currently lies, but I wouldn’t take a big position if trying this. best would be to wait for that sub 63.49 again before purchasing puts on this.
One of us has to be right, loser buys the beers, winner gets to kick sand
in big boys theory?
This gets the hell jumped and pumped into it on close, lets see if the forces
of good or evil win.
For a laugh, take a look over at yahoo groups under this and the number of
die hards that see this over 400$ in a year on orphaned natgas.
GLTA ignore what we say/do, perfect example of woo drawing the charts and we
both see different in the same lines.
haha. beers sound great right now.
Jsut went short 10% on F (Ford) @12.48. I will add another 15% if it goes to 13
Why what is the reasoning behind it? With tax season approaching I think it could help be a catalyst for ford.
Every time toyoda gets heat, ford climbs.
Overbought, overpriced but its now a mo-mo stock.
yesterday i posted the CNBC list of HOT STOCKS to own
think F made the list… target $20
Ford has same accel probs toyota has. Just keeping it quiet for now.
I had to drive one for work and found out the hard way.
———— MTZ ———– still no cofirmed down trend. held a higher low at $13 support.
im out of this position. should have confirmed by now imo.
im going to scale back a few here ……. 1130 coming?
———– LZB ———– im up 133% in these calls.
LZB GIGM KMB are my only bullish calls so best to hold on for another day or so. LZB could hit $15 in the next 2 days. especially if the market goes to 1130
————- AZO ————- its topping out after all. guess those bullish car sales numbers pushed it over the brink. maybe it can retrace over the next 2 days a bit of this move. sadly i exited my position for a small loss.
— PCLN — BEZ — EW — MAR — BIG — ELY — (AZO in and out for a loss)
these are the PUT positions i took today. most at the High of DAY.
hopefully thats the high
i unloaded half of my UNFI at $27.50 for a very nice CHA CHING
i took off my MTZ short for small cha ching
took KMB calls.
NYT and AIG made the top losers list. however, NYT looks like a coin flip in this spot. those loaded comments from a key investor yesterday getting digested. some of those buyers may be questioning themselves.
jim – http://social.stocktock.com/photo/2348194:Photo:38882?context=user
There’s a long term H&S, where the right shoulder is forming.
5 waves of EW have already completed. an AB of ABC have completed. we’re below the long term trend line that i’ve drawn there.
one more drop under that 63.49 area, and i say this may tank…
here comes the IOC train under 63.49 …..
used it as support instead lol.
Look at similarities of NTRI and IOC.
Nutrisystems has matured its pattern, gives an interesting look ahead and
time frame for ioc.
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/3/2/another-nutrisystem-success-storyits-own-stock.html
——- 1129.62 ——– UPPER BB ON SPX daily and coincides with the 1130 FIB retracement calculated from the daily closes. however, we almost consider the gap we left here. do we go down tomorrow and fill this gap? or head higher to 1130. either way im ok with it. the stocks im in look very toppy and show little here on that last push.
here’s my 1 month everyone:
http://social.stocktock.com/photo/woo1month-63?context=user
not much has changed in this chart over the last few days. so far it’s playing out pretty nicely.
looks like my 1122 projection was off by almost 1 point. hard to get these short term charts exact.
WAY TO GO WOO…………. provided me with some great entries.
PCLN ….. only one $900 PUT but looks good. tooo bad i could not hold onto my AZO puts. shook me out. im still thinking i should jump back in.
look at that AZO candle. you jumping in here?
AZO i have the mid point at $167.75 on this candle. well below that now.
woo, what shud i do with long spy march calls, keep em? thx
oy….depends on how much hurt ur willing to take. are you already in the green?
there’s a trend line around 1116-1117. probably the first major support under where we’re currently sitting. if you’re already in the green, then you can place stops under there in the hopes that we break to highs above the 1123 area. i don’t think that 1122 area will break easily on the long term 60+ minute chart, but it’s not impossible.
if you’re not willing to risk a full drop to the 1116 level, then i would just sell and take profits until things are more clear for bulls with either a strong trend line break to the north or a large support area.
other option is that there’s short term support at 1119-1120 on the daily. if you want that as your stop out then you’ll risk less loss, and still have a bit of hope in case the market breaks north.
Woo wrote:
“oy….depends on how much hurt ur willing to take. are you already in the greem’
In yiddish its OYE! or OIY!
That’s funny, you don’t look jewish. . . .
————- NO SIGNIFICANT PULL BACK HERE ———– SRS / FAZ ………. the chosen ones… not even a hint of a bounce. we can still head higher over the next few days. resistance is one thing and failure is another. have seen what this market does with resistance just jumps over it in the futures. twice now on this retrace rally we have seen that action.
however, im seeing alot of TOPPY candles in the stocks i follow so im favouring
a flat to lower move over the next few days.
———— UAUA ———- never hit $19 ………. $18.44 for a top. hopefully i didnt miss the boat here. maybe we can have another small rise in the next 2 days to get that $19.
———— HA ———— traded more bearish than UAUA yet this one has less debt and JAMAZINGLY it trades at a PE OF 3.5
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1429344198&play=1
look at BAC get batted down:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p25088602712&a=190186487
SHAREHOLDERS……… cant be happy about the dilution and the pending further dilution of the float. this is not good for the FED. if BAC gets hammered down their asset value plunges.
Low price is good for GS and buffett when they buy shares from fed.
Who will ben work for when his fed days are over? Pimco, GS or berk,
he won’t be a line assembler at ford.
———- ONB ———– took profits yesterday
——— IBOC ———- still holding . APR 20 PUTS
showing some weakness over past 3 days
this 1 year chart is a little bullish, no?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p75220322370&a=181956106
i’m not taking any SPY positions here. 5 wave could be done, so a drop could happen. but that long term support shows that you still need to be careful here till that trend line breaks.
here’s IOC zoomed:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IOC&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p95745210785&a=192195409
On promos like ioc, when the pull the rug, it falls hard.
Just seems the rug is not yet tugged>
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/3/2/another-nutrisystem-success-storyits-own-stock.html
For laugh, compare nutrisystems and ioc.
i will consider taking a put position on SPY when the 1116 area breaks, but not until then.
still more bullish than bearish.
thx woo! thx to you, still long calls, in green, and happy!!
np. just be careful if that 1116 area breaks. good luck!
im seeing it this way too. PCLN fell below a key retrace and quickly buyers came in. a +DOJI is no reversal candle
AND I CALLED FOR FLAT RANGE 990 – 1110 ………. LAUGH AT ME!!
—– PCLN —– trading on the intraday 50 FIB to make a perfect DOJI …. not as bearish
im seeing a close under $241.95 most bearish . anything above the $242.50 area is more neutral imo.
looks like the market wants to buy this dip here.
$241.34 …………… perfecto.
Double saddle top on gold?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p11585383401&a=192494085
did you see gdx hit my trend line today? not a strong enough break. but if it keeps holding 45.74, it’s going to probably head north towards 47.
is there not a massive HS on GOLD….. the retrace above the neckline is normal for this pattern and usually held to 38%. fits the bill.
Gold and markets are prone to right upper extensions on h+s patts,
gold has huge, exagerated flying shoulders.
———– SRS ———- may hold a clue as its a chosen one
$7.19 ressitance all day long ……….. if it breaks above at the close
on volume id say that’s all folks. anything else is less clear for me.
$7.18 now… and rolling higher
accumulation bars in last 45 minutes … volume coming in
first print of $7.20 all day.
pull back to $7.18 and a push higher would give a 2 bar break
next resistance is $7.25
doing exactly this so far. bottoming action on the Moving Averages. both on the short term pointing higher now. a strong buy into the close will cross these in a bullish manner. this market is ont the edge.
IOC just made a move into the 63.30s.
a good put/short position entry with stops back above 63.50s. you can wait for additional red candles under here to be more secure.
STOP INTIMIDATING MY IOC !!!
Was doing find till you shocked it into falling thru the beer line. Low vol
sell off so likely more to come. This is a good short here with sale of
a covered 55P to cushion.
When the MM are this obvious it also sends alerts to sellers, they will
hold into your strong suit and i suspect that is what is happening.
spx is still slightly above the long term trend line.
the last 20minutes in a market like this is make or break. feels like it can go on forever. PCLN now in what i consider bearish territory.
“We are not just fighting for a win or a loss, not for gains or ground, but for the
very hearts and souls of america.” Lombardy.
———— IF WE CLOSE HERE ———- this is non confirmation follow through bearish reversal candle. a breakout should consist of volume buy side of two bars. the market gaves a one bar break with FUTURES manipulation all on light volume imo. pure BS.
DAILY CANDLES LIKE THIS /////////// SPX ////////// usually result in some pull back.
MOST TRADERS WILL SELL THIS CANDLE.
——- SRS ——– action getting violent …….. whoa. never managed the break out . this got hammered at $7.20 over and over.
this changes nothing for the SPX candle. buyers need to step in here.
im short DRE which is a 6% yielding CRE and its down 2% yet something magic happened here to keep SRS from breaking out. interesting.
IYR sports a nice black doji. VOLUME keeps declining over the past 3 weeks. if it keeps on this trend it will trade just 10 shares on APRIL 23
Woo – thoughts on AAPL ?
Woo, thanks for the SPX commentary today. It was excellent !
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p16069223713&a=181738042
there’s an update. it hit the trend line perfectly and bounced north a bit.
aapl is bullish. it’s hitting a long term trend line soon a little above 210
Oops I think the chart is lower than daily timeframe – could u post up top pls ?
I think its in a bullish trend too – but the reversal candle today concerns me … where do you expect this to pull back to ?
jim – i like how you called it the beer line. hahaha. +5 pts.
think i should up my donation to you
this candle in the SPX. the way SRS is lining up to fight higher. im believing more each minute…….. you called the top. sideways for a bit and drop?
so far it’s looking that way. we need one strong candle south though to confirm this.
either way, i think there will be time before 1122-1123 area. it isnt the type of area to break so easily.
so if it DOES head north for any reason there should be time for shorts to get out. but currently it’s fighting in between that 1122-1123 top and a trend line below here in the 1116-1117 area as shown in my monthly chart. once that candle goes strong under the 1116-1117 area, we could get a much larger drop to sub 1000 again.
Today’s candle is a shooting star …. so very interesting if we get a follow through tomorrow, it should move down …
Great call Woo
Woo is scary with that accuracy thing. I remember back in Aug with the
world bearish he was the only one looking upward?
Very nice call.
Idan: Are you gonna have video tonight? We really miss your videos.
I am going to do one when I think the market has decided to move one way or another.
————- CRAZY CRAZY DAY ———— a good intraday trader could have booked a double on AZO PUTS today without the risk of holding over. instead i lost money. but everything else in my account went JAMAZING. BIG showed some weakness so hopefully any earnings are at least baked into that monster rally it just had. the chart says short.
BIG REPORTS pre-market tomorrow.
WHAT IS EVERYONE ……….. HOLDING OVER ? id like to look at the charts as ive ran the same charts over and over for a week.
I got into the INSM b/o this morning at 1.11.. Still holding half of the position.. In TZA at 8.35,, they’ll have to squeeze me out with a 60 min break of this potential double top on the Russel.. Other than that watching CSE, PACR and MCGC..
————– ARE MY POSTS USEFUL ?? ————– OR JUST NOISE ?? ————-
did anyone run the charts for MAR? it looks poised for the largest drop of any.
your posts are completely useful..
Never doubt that
im still learning … but i would like to know what you see in MAR to get that big drop.
I would love to hear your input
Thanks
I like your SPX analysis.
MAR ………… 1. cash strapped 2. not a strong outlook for the sector as most rooms are being deeply discounted 3. feeble attempt to prop the stock up by reinstating a dividend….. the new dividend ?? $0.16 …. yippee.
now the chart reflects all this lame action to boost the price.
put the chart up with Bollinger Band contaiing the 20 SMA. add in the 40 SMA and 80 SMA. you can see where prices held up and you can see all the averages converge. if a stock converges to these averages and looks oversold on indicators id favour a rise if the averages are flat. that would show a consolidation bottom. the RSI failed 60 on the bounce up before prices looked to start rolling over. this while the market rallied.
so you have RSI failing 60, the MACD failing the Zero line, FULL STOCHASTIC overbought and three averages converging. turn to the weekly chart and you see prices riding the WEEKLY 20 SMA … now trading under it.
NOTHING IS 100% … but the way this is behaving i must favour a move lower. some magic save the day announcement may come but it appears that magic announcement already happened. WYNN was on the other day and was pretty agitated… .business aint good for hotels.
BACK IN JULY you can see similar price action on the WEEKLY however the indicators and the moving average have gone flat.
hopefully this makes sense.
Some of your posts get a little rambling rich, pls leave the obama stuff alone.lol
the chart looked constructive not bearish. I just fail to see how they would allow
a drop of any magnitude before offloading the CDS and warrants in the banks
they own/ Not gonna happen?
If you believe in the PPT and the CDS fairy, you have to understand they won’t
allow a fall. The intraday spins on down days tell me that.
Nice chart, thanx for the input.
no big fall coming… stay away from FAZ and SRS … ha ha. my own advice and im in SRS. but individual stocks can fall hard. look at UNFI , PALM. im not interested in the broad index for your posted reasoning.
Love your posts Richard – started looking at those SMAs in a whole new way – its new so keep reminding myself
I told you that Ford company symbole F is bearish and I said I went short. Well like always I was right, I took my profit on this as well. MSFT also that I gave you yesteday just crashed down. I am waiting to see MSFT to rally again so i can go short on this again. Stick with boys guys as always. they give us tons of opportunity, so we should thank them all the time, Thanks big boys
how do you know where these big boys go…
Don’t ask that, he’ll send you to his adult website for big boys. Not normal
stuff, disturbing.
No more ‘big boys’ competition videos from your brand of ‘olympics’, ok.
Nothing wrong with that lifestyle if you’re so inclined, there are kids that
view these boards as homework. I had to put a ratings filter on because of
your ‘alternate lifestyle video’. Pls have some consideration for others.
I TOLD YOU ……… UNFI was bearish and that insiders were selling shares and that price pattern predicts a strong possible monster drop. thank you big boys for tanking UNFI at 10X the rate of FORD or MSFT so this fella could cha ching a huge gain on PUTS after getting hammered last week.
please do the same for BIG. i only ran 60 charts to find these two.
…lol….”I told you” became common place at ST?….I prefer the old style Richard
He’s under a lot of stress, not like rich.
I liked the JAMAZING too
Richard – can you share what you saw on UNFI ?
BIG – looks like a great play for earnings tommorrow
– you may see 31 
– how are you playing this ?
Good luck !!!
ooOO…did u see amzn? it looks like there’s a chance it could break to the up side.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=D&yr=3&mn=5&dy=0&id=p26025705517&a=181646175
if those trend lines and fibs hold, we could see it head towards new highs. we’ll see what tomorrow brings.
Seasonality is going against any of the amazon or apple going up here,
if it defies even seasonality, we could go monster rally.
i think you’re right. along with another close above the (daily) 50ma this thing will run.
Why new highs Woo ?
I am sorry but I can’t see any bullishness with AAPL. Current formation already started W4 (W3 reached 261.8% extension). Beyond this, current scenario is very bearish
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=019aefce-56c9-4219-9f54-de30ad8986b4
never mind Woo….please disregard my comment… you mentioned AMZN
One caveat here about upside: One of the CN-BS t/a guys, Carter Worth(less) that has
had it all wrong every step of the way, wrong all the time. . . . came out super bullish
tonight on stocks.
He called gold wrong all of last year, ditto oil and S&P. Why they keep bringing the same
stiffs out just does not make sense. Right after “Wrong-O Worth” makes his chart
call, Dick Bove (Bank Analyst) cuts his earnings estimate on GS by a buck per 1/4
(25%).
FWIW looks like low volumes and a side deal not to short the markets is impacting the
huge money the prop desks at the brokers can make.