Woo:
SPX 1 month 10:40 am PST
IOC by request:
very quick draft based on request. if i could spend an hour on it i would, but alas…i have a job…
watch for a break below that long term trend line on IOC and ride it down to the $45 area.
Idan:
11:55am
Those that are following me on twitter: korenidan87, know that yesterday i said: “If the bears want to push the market back down for a new wave, it would be hear, and only here”. I took small SDS position in anticipation as we hit the 50 SMA daily… I now have a trailing stop, I would like to see the volume pick up.
MY TURN TO VENT !!! CAN’T LET RICH HAVE ALL THE FUN !!!!
With the world falling apart, finances on death row and not a job to be found on earth,
the big boys in washington grill Toyota about brakes and get prime time on TV?
Not healthcare, not the killing of innocent kids in uniform but accelerators?
Don’t blame obama. System is broken and broke. We need a communist china type
governing solution, these idiots in washington and ottawa are a waste of time taking
bribes and asking questions no one cares about.
Is it a prerequisite that brain damaged get to be in congress? No wonder china is so
effective compared to us, they get stuff done while our guys load up on bribes.
end of rant. thanks for putting up with.
I now return you to our regular big boys know commentator.
LOL. ……….. A NATION TURNED TO GAMBLING LONG on IOC just to put food on the table it seems. what else is there but POKER and STOCKS ?
Lotto tix are big sellers here in rural eastern ontario canada.
We own a general store and its the same tale of hopelessness every time
a lottery announces a big prize. Poor spend the most on loot-o, bring in
SILVER DOLLARS AND COINS saved over the years to trade in on a one
in 30million shot at big money.
We are not a pawn shop but i am getting a lot of gold coins, silver coins &
antique bills (BTW, did you know a thousand dollar canadian bill in good
shape is worth 1400.00?)
FWIW we get at least a wedding/engag’t ring a week in hock towards gas
money, and, of course, cigs.
I feel like a dirtbag taking it so i leave it to heartless wife to do the deed.
im in VERNON BC , CANADA. recently i told my bank clerk that its our turn next. problems are already showing up in our community big time. she said back to me … .really? i thought we were just smarter.
she works at the bank and she doesnt see that they have leant too much loose money to over valued homes that people can’t afford ? wow!
…it seems that I was right (post #25)…I mean about this bounce today….but it seems/smell short lived
..anyway I am still in cash and waiting to short again….like a normal BEAR….
——— AN ———– BIT MORE VOLUME TODAY….. now under the DAILY 20 SMA
Don’t worry there will be another miraculous comeback and we will end up down a few points my guess is down 20.
not sure if those propping up the markets have many bullets left. the FED manipulation has run its course. buyers had a chance to step up yesterday. the volume was anemic. the market gave them a chance and they appear to have said we are not buying the lies. this is my take so far.
————– SPX ————— 80 SMA DAILY ………… 1100.79
——- HMD.TO —— take a look at the daily chart. its a leading economic indicator.
my friend cant buy options. i put her in this one and HND.TO at the same time.
stops are in place. guranteed a profit unless we some massive gap.
What a strange day !!! I could make a case for a big up day tomorrow or a big down day.We did not take out 108.50 which i thought we had a chance to. I just do not have a feel but i still think we go to 112.50 -113.00 on the SPY but confidence is not strong..Looks like the sell off was due to the consumer confidence index which was terrible.
We still have 30 minutes so anything is possible..Im tempted to take a long position here..
———– IOC ———— anyone still in this? waiting for volume of trade to pick up. clearly there is a limited bid and sellers have to lose patience soon. maybe at the closing bell ?
Covered half my short ‘junk-calls’ on IOC around 2PM, WOULD NOT PLAY THE UP
BOUNCE BY ANY MEANS!!!
WOO did some nice chart work on ioc and i am more convinced than ever, but
its been 3 brutal days down and this dog could bounce a few steps.
this light volume bounce looks like sellers took a rest and are using the HOPE strategy. the HOPE some buyers show up. find out soon if they just end up jumping over each other to get out.
————- PALM ———– i unloaded pre-opex and like a TARD never got back in above $10.00. now look at it. $8.30 ………….. holy crap.
CITI went long i believe and then upgraded the stock. bounce was limited so they unloaded? im pretty sure this is what happened as it couldnt hold thier upgrade target for $10 for a day or two. maybe then they switched sides? not just them but a few other large dealers loaded up on SHORT SHARES.
now a couple of them DOWNGRADED the stock. PALM is pretty broke and AAPL is kinda crushing them . however, now its sporting a FULL STO of 3.0.
very tough for a broke company to lift thier share price as they have no extra money to announce any sort of pump plan to re-buy shares. this is why i have PBI puts. they need to pay down debt before buying thier own shares imo.
————- VPRT ———— expected a bounce at $57 … got it. limited to grabbing half the losses on the day back. $57.50 is the intraday 50 FIB on a high of $58 and low of $57
——— GOOD LUCK TOMORROW ! ———– please post your comments on the market or stocks but please also include a bit of information as to why the chart is interesting. im not posting what i traded today. im just going to post stocks that are in interesting spots.
TO SEE OR NOT TO SEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE — 1085 –
————- V ————— TRADING AT THE LOD ………. near the close. ill admit to this much….. i added back my position in this today.
Rich, german confidence was shown down hard today, they are blaming this dive on that.
German unemp rate 4.2% Average industrial wage $85 per hr. 1 year paid maternity or
paternity and you start at 6 weeks paid annual vacation. Health and dental paid, ditto drugs.
Pot legal, drinking age 16 driving age 18 and no speed limits.
And they listen to Ramstein.
FORD!
amazing eh! .. i called out a fib the other day for this to keep above. $11.35 and sure enough its above that now. i hope they do well. im a bear at heart but im rooting for FORD.
——– IF THIS MARKET HOLDS UP THIS WEEK ——– should see some equity grabs imo
I hope you enjoy my very exact forecat yesterday and today based on big boys action. Last night 14 hours before market open I said price should target 1100 and sure enough it did. Then today 3 hours befor market close I gave 3 exact foreacts. I said 1094 is a bottom and I said USO and AIG will go uyup also. Well I pulled the triger on AIG at 26.65 and I posted at the same time (so people do not say you said after). With a AIG in free fall today price never went below my trigger forecast for last three hous, and I want to know who can give you such a exact forecats. Price on AIG should test 50 MA tomorrow and then I would sell. That is why guys I keep told you that you have to stick with big boys. I made 20% money this morning on my last nigh call and although I did not make money in afternoon but precisly I knew market bottomed 3 hours before market close. That is why I am always in the right side of the market. stick with the big boys
Sam, i admit your the best!! Your call on markets are great, the call you made
on chiquita bananas beating expectations due to monkey big boys buying
is great.
No wonder zee left, could not handle your superior intellect.
BTW, you doing a lot of drugs, if not doing drugs consider them as
a new hobby. The big boys all use drugs, drug with the big boys.
Thanks for your advise.
LMAO Jimbho.. I admit I’m not posting anymore, but every couple of weeks/months I might peek in.
Zee – what are you looking at for your next cycles dates ?
Still looking for a fall into March 15 ?
I have a weird feeling that was it. From Nov 09-Feb 10 was 3 months, which fits perfect in cycle theory.
No more big falls until August 2010.
March 9th +/- 5% from today
and April 6th +/- 7% from today
These are two big turn dates, write them down as they will prove to be days where you should theretically get very good entry points.
If on March 9th, we are +5% from where we are right now, take the opposite position. I.e if on march 9th we are at 1140, go short, and if on march 9th we are at 1040 go long..
if on apr 6th we are at 1170 (7% away) go short, etc…
lol
AH PRINT …….. AIG ……. UP $0.01 on your entry. so you are safe so far. but, did you look at the WEEKLY CHART ? bearish 20 / 40 SMA cross.
be very careful with this AIG whale.
AIG is my firend, I am playing with this for a long time. I am protected with long term puts though so even if it goes to zero I would make money.
if you have protective PUTS then why did you not buy it when it was brutally oversold two weeks ago on my turn date. i posted the fact in stocktock. it bottomed a few days later. why wait until its overbought and running into resistance. is this a contrarian trading style im unaware of?
im going to see how this turns out. seems a bit crazy
great call Jimbho for the close today
Thanx, i’m no big boy but trying. Retail controls the intra day and professionals
or ‘big boys’ control the distribution closes. We have much further to sell.
A/H i am buying bananas, chiquita reported double the loss CQB selling off in a/h
and may be a buy on weakness. Market is making monkeys of us all, time for
bananas?
In fairness, 100 points is nothing, i see another 3-500 points down from here,
market is starting to ignore good news and sell on bad. Guess what will happen
on thursday’s big boys job reports?
Mkt looks like it wants to fall lower …. if it does then next levels of support are 109 and 108.5 on the SPY … last 2.5 hours were only the creation of a bear flag …
Although SPY up to 110.15 AH ….. hmmmmm …
Its the buy the dippers anticipating a gap up to follow the light selling 2day.
We will resolve much lower. All i see in a/h is devastation, CENX century
alum down huge, STEC down huge. The dead are not rising from the grave
yet but the earth is moving in bearish direction.
Cenx and stec are down 25% in a/h.
Based on big boys action, I would call tomorrow a gap up day but not a large gap up, just a small one. (18 hours before market open)
So, sammy, how you gonna play it? Whatcha buying or selling at what points?
Besides drugs/booze that is.
now this is a probable call i can live with. in most down trends you see the toying with futures and a 15min flushing of the late shorts. yes, i can agree with this. careful with your trading style for these reasons.
1. probability plays an important role in trading
2. guessing works for short term due to variance
3. long run guessing can leave you harmed especially if you chase.
i admit to losing money as i started taking positions on the run up recently. called for 1105 and then let the stupid intraday convince me that market was weak. however, in the long run im a winner because i get out when it yells get out and i dont go long stocks with 90 on the FULL STO nor do i short the VIX when it has a reading of 3 on this same indicator. if you are going to use one guage and cant read candle patterns… check the FULL STO so you can see if you are buying a balloon that is ready to pop. UAUA if you are still in it…. is working out. however, it really is looking like one of them balloons running out of air. simply JAMAZING how UAUA stayed afloat.
Richard – what setting do you use on the full stochs for daily ?
One of my gauging stocks, AXP, closed two pennies above P2 support. It has not exited P2 yet. (Even if it exits P2, it will not confirm entry into P3 territory until $30 is hit before April 20.)
I really like XOM and VALE, even if we did begin a sharp drop towards DJIA 9000 (doubt it, my bullish scenario is still very much alive).
Hey Fritz,
I don´t like the “Commodity Index”. It looks very bearish for me. It is also very overbought on daily basis (PPO)
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=17c36081-4af9-4a14-9d29-10e6d99b7d18
Depends on your time frame I guess. I am targeting a run for May 13 2010, hence my pick on XOM and VALE.
I plan to buy the stocks directly, and then buy puts (to be used as calls) and sell covered calls. This way, if the stock drops, I sell puts and keep premiums I get on covered calls AND keep the dividend paying stocks. I will just roll over puts into the next month (same strategy as my AXP and JPM trade). If the stocks do indeed rise to my target price, I will just let them get called away AND still keep the option premiums.
..very wise strategy…I trade mainly debit spreads…
about VALE:
It looks like that it almost finished a nice EW structure. Current leg, W4, already retraced 50% from W3 (it also matches 161.8% Fibonacci)
It looks like a bullish scalp only, if it started W5. Usually I prefer to trade W3 because it is more reliable
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=4aad6038-3c79-409c-8bcf-69f358d1d2cb
STEC falling apart in a/h
down 30% or $4 to 9.55 just like Sam predicted !!!! Nice one sam. Sam or someone on this
site not as important as him called a top at $22.
Huge insider selling on this pos.
Have a a/h buy order in for 9.45 >>>FILLED !!!
For oil traders only….
It looks like USO almost completed a full EW structure. If W2=W4 it may drop to 37.7 area where is also a former support.
PPO daily – bullish but overbought
PPO hourly – bearish without any bullish signal yet
I would short it now but finishing the trade once reached that level (37.7)
Set your stops at 38.8….161.8% Fibonacci extension
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=2d0aff18-e5be-424e-a837-78232dbf3ff1
Covered long at 1097. + 5 points
One of my great call was UAUA last week, I said big boys are long and you see even with a day like today that market crashed UAUA finished up. WOW Thanks to big boys. Even Idan who I admire said UAUA is going to fall. Stick with big boys
….maybe due my lack of experience on “following the big boys”…I can´t find any bullishness on UAUA….my TA indicators show only the opposite…
…EW & Fibonacci looks bullish…I like to trade when I can find any match using both analysis….
sam, how do you know what “big MF” doing?
I was out for the whole afternoon, wow, this place turned into a circus.
Here is just a reminder to you Sam, could you pls stop gloating just because you made some good calls? You’d eventually earn respects from other posters if you consistently make valuable comments/calls; it’s nothing to gloat about.
Someone is in disguise. Uner/Woo/Idan, could you please check if “XXXXX?” is back? Thanks!
YEPPPERS… i had to shut down the site. it was making me bonkers. little bit later i was able to come back. too much useless stuff going on.
here is one thing im really excited about ………… AN
CLUNKERS helped them because what the bone head democrats dont understand is that clunkers does not create new demand for vehicles. it borrows demand from tomorrow. can they have CLUNKERS part DEUX?? probably not because the GOV is broker than broke after all this Stimuli. AN, such a weak bounce off OVERSOLD WEEKLY conditions ….. very interesting indeedy
Hey Richard,
I am still bearish on oil. Since I couldn’t watch the markets this afternoon, I sold my ERY shares for a nice profits before I go. What is your targets on HOD.TO and HND.TO? Thanks!
Yes. It has. (turned into a circus).
Stick around Anitang, Rich, Goingtoretire, Bbear et al. The newcomer BS bloggers will burn out quickly and move elsewhere.
I’m working BTW these days and only get to check in early Am and eves. Greatly enjoy catching up on the market via your posts each eve,
Hey Guys, hope you all did well today. I’m still sitting all in all short. I’m feeling confident we go down from here, and my feeling is we hit 9700 on the DJIA this week. I’m thinking there may be some whipsaws, but that we see 8500 on the DJIA in the next month or so. I’m planning to buy more short positions ONLY, on rallies. However this will only happen occasionally when I have some money to do so.
I haven’t held any longs since September, but plan to go long again at least as a hedge, in August or September of this year most likely. I will use tight stops at that time, as I believe we’ll be in a downtrend for possibly another couple of years.
GTROD, I am with you on the EDZ trade. Are you still holding? GLTU
Anitang,
Much appreciated buddy, and the same back at you! Yes indeed, and glad I got it at $5.31, and I recall you got it for just a few cents more, which is still great. Got a feeling it will be around $10 before the Easter/Passover Holiday season.
You are a more experienced trader, so I’d like your opinion on which shorts look more attractive to you, as I’m thinking of consolidating my portfolio a bit soon, selling some positions and adding to others. Which of the following do you like best, in order if you would:
EDZ
EEV
FAZ
BGZ
SKF
TZA
TYP
SRS
SDS
SRS has really been a dud, but I’m thinking it may pop very soon.
Don’t forget EDZ will reverse split 10-1 as of 03/03/10
davecash77,
Much appreciated. Do you guys think it will be good to sell before the split, or not, assuming the downtrend continues??
Thanks Davecash77 for reminding us. I am hoping we could sell before the split with a nice profits!!
GTROD, I bought EDZ @$3.33. I am not an experienced trader as you put it, I seldom make any TA on this board (I was a buy-n-hold type of investor, only started to trade about two years ago), still trying to learn from the masters (Woo, Uner, Idan, Richard, Fritz, etc.). I like EDZ the best, that’s why I bought it. Sorry this post can’t help you much.
Good luck trading!
Anitang,
Edz at $3.33 was a great call on your part, it must have been somebody else on this board who got it for a few cents more than me. I agree, selling before the split for a profit sounds good. I guess march 3rd is just a week or so away, so lets see some good market drops between now and then.
Good luck trading my friend!
I recall Davecash77 got it @$3.36
UAUA has some very negative divergence on the Daily (RSI) indicator
I think that gap will be filled at around 13.20… thoughts?
US to face similar debt problem? It’s just a matter of time, gotta be nimble in this market.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/us-will-suffer-its-own-greek-crisis.aspx