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22
Feb
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3:36pm
Possible target based on fibs for BIDU is 531.
3:12pm
AAPL seems to be forming a H&S on the daily. So far the market is not doing much, but if we do get another wave down (which i think might be the case) as soon as AAPL breaks it’s 20 SMA daily, it’ll get enough momentum to break it’s H&S neckline at 190 and probably start a correction.
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I strongly believe that since everyone is expecting a crash, it will not happen but it will flat line for a long time unless something huge happens… JMHO
I strongly believe that since everyone is expecting a crash, it will not happen but it will flat line for a long time unless something huge happens… JMHO
February 22nd, 2010 at 3:03 pm
you could be right. market doesn’t need to crash here at all. it came down and hit the 38% retrace almost perfectly and has bounced north strongly from there. this could easily rally into new highs and is testing a long term resistance area, which is broken, could mean a HUGE move to the north side.
February 22nd, 2010 at 3:13 pm
You see thats what I have been thinking,but it just seems that too many people a re waiting for a major pullback. I just don’t see it as my analogy has always been—- whats good for the market is not good for the people, so markets are doing great and people and the economy seem to be suffering and thats how it all works out in this crazy world……..
Im staying long until we see a huge volume to the down side and there is follow thru.
February 22nd, 2010 at 3:17 pm
it’s never a bad idea to go with the trend. and this is also why it’s good to not have all your money in the market at one time so that you can layer your trades. i think you’ll be fine as long as you know when to load up and unload as you’re going.
February 22nd, 2010 at 3:10 pm
I don’t think anyone is looking for or expecting a crash, in the AAII data, the
consensus was for correction, not crash or new bear. That explains why
we took off vert when 9% below top.
This market is prone to over reacts to the upside, not the downside. Fed has
conditioned a new generation of dippers. CRB and gold have stalled, i have
no idea what markets will do, i think you can pick indiv stocks and play it out
in that way.
If wrong i will take my ball and go home like zee, lol.
broke out of a triangle forming from the morning on upside . but not confirmed yet … upside tgt is 112, downside 110.34
any comments on BIDU?
February 22nd, 2010 at 3:19 pm
stay away from it
$VIX and $CPC dont say rally . they will say rally after we start rallying
February 22nd, 2010 at 3:33 pm
rich, ur letting emotions run things.
VIX in slow, steady retreat, CPC is mega bullish short term. People here respect you
too much for you to alter fact.
Most important is vix topped in volume and retreated, classic capitulation, right now
VIX is to be sold not bought, IMO. The whole fake breakdown was to draw in put
buyers and squeezey shorts.
LOL, never play poker with me, i’d beat ur backside as can read u !!!!
February 22nd, 2010 at 3:48 pm
the $VIX is oversold. it says bounce . tomorrow is a red day. we close lower than FRIDAY close. this is what ive been calling for.
ACTION TODAY WAS almost exactly what i called only we did not get as high as i thought we would. so far so good.
they are waiting for the market to close then the dollar will move.JMHO
——— VOLUME OF TRADE ———- alot of the stocks i watch are rising on light volume. a few im watching have a volume of trade and they are RED.
IOC and MRK and M trade above volume and go RED.
IBOC and ONB are a very nice green… no volume
anyone else noticing this. stocks rising on fumes. stocks falling on volume.
February 22nd, 2010 at 3:29 pm
—– MTH —— glad to get out of my puts on the weakness. either way.
February 22nd, 2010 at 3:29 pm
SLB volume is I think at least 10x its normal daily volume.
February 22nd, 2010 at 3:32 pm
it just further proof that thier is no real bid in these stocks. nothing to really hold them up. people are putting in bids hoping for amateurs to jump over them and buy. you can see it alot of times. then if that bid gets hit it disappears. its an old game that has been played along time.
February 22nd, 2010 at 3:34 pm
Rich, what positions do you hold right now? Are you still interested in BA?
February 22nd, 2010 at 3:38 pm
im not taking BA …. the unemployed still have money and time to travel
may be more BS for that sector. two unemployed friends of mine bought a SPEC HOUSE in L.V. and now they are going to EUROPE for 3mos. what a way to spend your severance. guess they have confidence they can come back and get a job. ………………… stil have $65 target and i want to see if that stupid whale can get thier. on fumes or not.
BA is ONE OF FEW stocks in the green on volume.
February 22nd, 2010 at 4:25 pm
Fritz – BA looks like it may be starting a trend upwards …. next resistance is 66.75 would not get short before then …. and would actually watch price action there before going short ….
February 22nd, 2010 at 4:30 pm
How often (percentage wise) have stocks hit your resistance level?
No I am not taking new positions, plus I promised myself not to buy put options in March.
February 22nd, 2010 at 5:08 pm
Fritz, my problem is most the stocks do hit my levels. i jump in and they head higher. they then pull back but by the time they pull back to below the resistance my options have decayed. my entry points are good if you just take short shares. but not so good for options.
i need to wait a bit longer. im bad for early entry. if i post a trade here … wait another 5 days
CALLS ——— GIGM MRK XOM
PUTS ———– ONB MTD are my largest
RSH M AN PBI MAR are others. rest are insignificant
February 22nd, 2010 at 3:42 pm
im very amazed the MRK struggles get back half the move lower from the intraday high. im glad to unload a few calls in this above $37.10 . this market is nervous.
—————— MARKET HAS DONE WHAT I EXPECTED ————– JUST did not go as high as i thought it could. $VIX is overold. if this maps what im thinking we close TUESDAY lower than the close on FRIDAY. im just thinking ive picked mostly the wrong stocks
but i have some cash to throw in WEDS if we continue on my mapped path.
February 22nd, 2010 at 3:54 pm
$CPC holds the higher low. however it has showed slowing trend and now trades below trendline. so tomorrow must close above $0.85 or im going to just throw in the towel and catch you all later.
February 22nd, 2010 at 3:56 pm
WOW …. this last half hour backs up my FUMES POST @ 3:30
February 22nd, 2010 at 4:00 pm
You too? I picked no new position today and my existing holdings were working against me. LOL
February 22nd, 2010 at 4:02 pm
its making me feel sick because ive mapped the market direction very well over the past weeks and lost money. this rarely happens. im underperforming the market movement in a bad way.
———— RSH ————- CRAMER JINXED ……….. he says he would not be suprised if it sold off after hours. OH CRAP! one of the few green stocks on VOLUME but looking at the chart im seeing this stock getting ahead of itself. find out soon
———— FAZ ———— anyone notice that the 20 40 and 80 SMA are now pointing lower in this instrument. on a day the market did nothing. clearly the market is a FAZ hater for now. be really careful with this one. FOUR DAYS AGO …. FAS put in a black topping candle that was obvious for the world to see. this candle had me bullish for FAZ but im not one too trade this thing. i like losing my money in other things these days
since that reversal candle was put in on FAS ………… its 6% higher. maybe only bottoming candles are something to pay attention too. go long on reversal candles ??
——— HOD.TO ———- last post. look at the daily chart of this one. id rather buy this than go long oil. this screams that oil is near or at a peak in its run higher.
February 22nd, 2010 at 6:48 pm
Yes, oil is getting overextended. Glad that I didn’t get shaken out last week, still holding ERY (bought @10.84 and $11.16 avg $11.00). Looks like the big boys are out of energy into financials. XLF is the only sector that was positive today, it has been up for 9 days. Still watching USO very closely, looking to add more ERY shares or reenter the SCO trade.
Good luck trading!
February 22nd, 2010 at 7:39 pm
think ive sniffed out what is going on. its becoming blatantly obvious
SRS and FAZ get hammered. smell another round of equity issues coming. Wall Street and the FED to benefit. new money to take the pain.
zee, curious to know how your faz/fas short is doing, should be looking better now.
February 22nd, 2010 at 7:25 pm
They changed the margin req’ts on all the 3X ETF’s in Jan, a borrow will now cost
or will be declared unavail by discount brokers. Sounds good in theory but impossible
to the average discount investor.
Used to be a sure thing, sell both short and write covered puts on both and bank
the decay. Most brokers (TDAm anyway) caught on after everyone started
doing the covereds in Dec/Jan2010. Was a top pairs trade from Tiger Financial.
Anything that sounds too good to be true usually has rules changed to make sure it
isn’t a payoff. Look up short positions in FAZ/FAS. There are none. Ditto demand
picture, they just create more shares as required and reduce float as demand dries.
Nice disclosure and use info available at Tom’s TFNN.COM mainpage. FWIW
Basil Chapman and the Chapman wave have kept me out of bad trades for 2
years running.
February 22nd, 2010 at 9:43 pm
What your take on Larry P?
Hi Guys,
Nice to take a break, after 01 week off the market. Anyway I had some nice profits (my CALL orders were filled) because I was expecting a nice rally if SPY filled the 109.5 gap (forecast last 02/12)
I like to use EW with a KISS (keep it simple stupid) paradigm. Said this, I don´t care for whatever the Ellioticians want to explain about this positive bias (last bullish leg).
Anyway, my take is:
- Bulls reached 61.8% retracement from January highs to February lows. If this rally has legs it has to break the wall/mess in the 113.10 area. It is beyond 76.4% and it invalidates everything
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=2bc195f1-0fbb-4619-a714-44cfe3ff5395
- PPO 60/15 min is bearish. We will have some drop tomorrow.
- Sentiment indicators (Zweig and McClellan) are VERY overbought
Conclusion
- Bulls need a final push to kill every bear in this market. Otherwise the W3 will start again
- Everything can happen. Forces are tied again
February 22nd, 2010 at 9:29 pm
Great to hear from you BB – was missing your posts recently
February 22nd, 2010 at 9:58 pm
oh no BB is back
j/k
after looking closly at big boys I think tomorrow will be a short and quick drop to 1100 and then another run toward 1120 or even higher. Big boy still are not done with this rally, so be careful not to get in trap.
Bottom line: bank stock are getting stronger. Be aware.
February 22nd, 2010 at 11:20 pm
Are you still holding on C? I add a ton at 3.16… . XLF seems to be consolidating now..
February 23rd, 2010 at 12:23 am
I have 98000 shares