Here’s a chart of UAUA since most people were talking about it… I think it’s done going up for now… A break of 14.90 would (to the downside) would confirm it, I think we might get stronger pushes lower on this name. Or at least a retrace to the 14$ level:
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———– 80 SMA SPX DAILY ———— completely flat now. this is toppy. that does not mean we cant rise some more. what it says to me is we found our top at 1150. it does not mean load up on short term PUTS as we can just trade sideways above it before correcting. if we continue to rise so will the 80 SMA and the chart will simply look bullish again.
———— MTD ———— im forced to purchase some ITM CALLS to offset some of the pain in my illiquid puts. if it tanks like i think it should ill simply make less profits. if it rises quickly i take less pain. if it goes sideways im screwed.
bought one $90 MAR CALL to hedge against a gap up and run on MONDAY . this one traded little volume in the $96 area. sellers arent capitualting at the gap support area.
Careful, take profits fast on the longs!
See my post about fed worried now about the run up in stocks and bonds,
yeah, i feel silly saying that. Like having my heroin dealer saying he’s worried
about blood sugar?
Sorry, i don’t use h or have a dealer.
Gave it up for lent. LOL
———— EURO ———— up 0.44% on the day. anyone notice this. last night it looked like it was on the road to hell. currency markets are wild wild wild right now.
noticed, i loved it
really crazy stuff going on
when currencies start moving like equities you know everyone including us is confused about where to move thier money.
im wishing more and more each day that i simply took profits like i did and then sat on my hands. most my stocks have done little to change trend or have found themselves overbought. now i simply have to wait.
so what about monday?
currencies and commodities they are the true masters
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p01481377747&a=181738042
leaning towards 1114-1115 area as the place to short the market at the moment.
there’s the drop to 1107-1108 i mentioned earlier.
ballsy callsy 1115 woo
we stil have no confirmed break other than short term trade of the 40SMA. 40SMA is 1109.69. maybe this is simply another short suck in and we close under it with an indecisive doji.
however we have another chance here to break it on volume.
we have now risen SIX of the last 8 days.
hehe. the bulls don’t have much in the way at the moment. a trend line hit one more time above here would result in a 1115 or so.
but as always, no guarantees =P
Should’ve kept all those once way OTM VALE FEB 28 CALL from Feb 5… Would’ve made 10x…
lol. i hate it when that happens. takes a lot of balls to hold through all the crap that has been going on in the market lately though. profit is profit =P gj either way.
we all say woulda coulda shoulda. i have a tough time holding calls at anytime. im always bailing too soon. i called out $15 for NDN and then bailed on my shares just over the $14 mark bcs the market was tanking. now @ $16.70.
you chart , you bet, the market confuses you, so you take profits in fear of losing them. then the chart plays out like you thought.
Tell me about it – I sold my STLD 16 calls for 0.35 – a loss on my purchase of 0.46 – at 1 earlier today – dammit … they were at 15 cents as well after earnings …
————– ONB ———— looks the weakest of my holdings.
im buying more PUTS on this one. topping candle on the daily. weekly chart looks like a two week rise bear flag on light volume.
————— MRK ————— im liking the action on the daily chart. nice bull flag. next week should really say what this is going to do. needs to capture $38 cleanly to give the WEEKLY chart a bullish feel. $38 is the 50 FIB from the small correction of $2.00
GOT MORE PUTS …. ONB
Guys FSLR is going to be a good trade in coming days. I am going to spend some time in this weekend and see what big boys will do with this and I will let you know. meanwhile if you come up with any thoughts please share. It should start going up in coming weeks but I need to anaysis big boys action to find out when they want to do that. Stick with boys guys.
maybe coming weeks if OIL RISES. look at a chart of SWI
im in the $20 PUTS in this one. one of my winners.
—- SWI —— just cant even touch the 20 SMA on the daily as of late. even when the volume came in yesterday failed to break the trend. very light trade today.
“Stick with boys guys.”
i’ll stick with woman thanks.
That is what you should do in bed not in the market. That way you don’t make money.
A beautiful battle at 1112… It’s the 61.8 retracement converging with the 50dma on the daily SPX
A big move is coming on Monday, based on the MACD histograms. I don’t really know which way it will be. All I know is that if I don’t hedge myself accordingly, I will have my head handed to me.
That’s the danger of trying to maintain a 10:1 margin ratio. Fortunately for me AXP and JPM moved very little today, which allowed me to grab calls for my ‘stepping’ strategy.
Example: grab AXP MAR 39, 41, 42 calls. If AXP goes up to 41, sell MAR 39 calls. And if it goes up further to 42, sell MAR 41 calls. This way, my shares shorted will have protection all the way up to 42, and I can still profit on a potential rise to 42. If AXP drops, it will likely drop hard, so I won’t have a problem getting back more than the cost of those calls.
i’m currently leaning towards 1115 hitting into monday, and then a sharp drop from there based on a trend line and fib resistance combination. it could be a really fierce and quick drop.
I hope you’re right woo.
The past two weeks have been my worst since July 2009. Never have I mis-timed it so badly (off by a whopping 9 days!!!).
I am looking to unload some calls on Monday. Perhaps I will grab a few VIX calls again (not yet learned my lesson :p).
haha.
when you profit it’s called persevering, when you lose money it’s being stubborn. let’s hope that you persevere fritz =)
————– RUNNING MY CHARTS ————– take a look at VPRT daily . WOW!
two strong bars at $57.50. looks like this one can make new highs.
Breakout of an inverted head & shoulders dating back to December on the daily chart?
There is a lack of a good downtrend prior to the H&S…
someone on this site posted to expect a crash on the Monday following President’s day.
well, it appears as though we got the opposite of your expectiations and I haven’t seen that poster own up to their call… sad.
correction, the Tuesday following President’s day.
even the worst news has failed to provide a LIMIT DOWN day in these markets. each rise and fall may move quickly but never has it moved beyond what is allowed to consider a CRASH. dont ever expect a crash but we can expect sharp moves in either direction.
Hey, that was me. And I did admit that I mis-timed this (see post #8).
While I expected a crash that didn’t pan out. As soon as things looked different to me I started to map out a bullish scenario which was in fact the very reason I grabbed lots of calls in the past few days in preparation for a repeat of July 2009.
you must not be following on a regular basis–Fritz owned up and gave info. on his corrections, continuously.
That was Fritz who made that call.
$VIX has traded under $20.50 almost all day. bad for the bear case indeed.
LOD $19.72 still holding but maybe not for long.
MAN IM GLAD I LOADED UP ON ……….. MRK …..CALLS
or id be unable to sleep this weekend.
——– AN ———- looks pretty weak
——— F ———— trading under the key level i have of $11.35. have this written down from weeks ago.
you hear alot of BUY F because TOYOTA is screwed soooo…. F falls 1%
Mredith says the banks are doomed. so FAZ PUTS are the play.
——————— M ————————— im adding more puts. trading right a the 50 FIB from the fall and has now risen 8 DAYS IN A ROW. pllllllllllllease.
I O C -interoil has formed a firm huge bottom at $68
GS and MS are huge stake holders in this. I OC is my big boy trade, buy in @ noon
and sell as they ramp up at eod. They will allow IOC to fall into next week so they can
unload puts and then will jam it up to protect their huge investment.
GS 12% MS 6% insiders 28% shorts 3.2%
The MM in this stock have been told to hold firm the big guys investment, price action reflects
that on a daily.
thanks for heads up
good info
plus CRAMER said ……………. its a bs stock… sell sell sell …
this usually means buy buy buy
IOC deliberately issues press releases that smell just to attract and
draw in shorts. They are masters of the squeeze and actually plan
the releases to opex.
—————- 1106 —————- this was my call for the close because it sits just above the WEEKLY 50 FIB and the goal of the market is to always sit on the fence number i come with and drive me crazy. bought some more puts today. bought one CALL in MTD to take some pain away should it run to $100.
POST YOUR GUESS
does anyone knows why RINO is tanking?
you never know until after …
it moved $3.50 …. the 50 FIB is $20.75. its trading above that. could be minor shake out. it is OVERBOUGHT.
Anything associated with china or that trade is tanking.
New short selling rules in USA ??? What???
here’s a current 1 month chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=1&dy=10&id=p01481377747&a=181738042
not sure if we’ll tank now, or rise up to 1115 first and tank, but i’m still leaning towards 1115 or so before dropping to the bottom of the channel. this chart is speculation at the moment.
the 2 wave on that chart was drawn out, so i think the 4/1 wave will be quick and swift. maybe over 1 day. might get that big drop on monday that some people have been talking about.
woo, where do you see RINO going from here
——– 1108 ——— you posted this important to hold ? is this correct. so a close below it or on it is bearish for next week ??
we are currently below the 15MINUTE —- 5 DAY TREND LINE right ??
nono. 1108 was like a magnet at the 50ma. it was going to hit. but this doesn’t have to hold. if it breaks, it can head south towards the 200ma or a retrace.
i just knew 1108 was going to hit. i’m still not letting go of 1115 area. dow is currently above long term 60 min 50ma, and also has room to run north before hitting a major trend line.
and we’re below a 10 day trend line on the 5 minute chart that hasn’t broken once. it will hit the 1115 area near EOD and into tomorrow.
———- MOTLEY FOOL JUST SENT ME A GREAT EMAIL ——–
HEADLINE ::: only an idiot would buy this today. it cites many top people stating that only an IDIOT WOULD : 1. buy US Treasuries. 2. buy US Equities 3. buy GOLD 4. Stay in cash
basically the found one prominent fortune teller for each asset class who explains the logical reason why you should not hold a certain asset class. none of them really advise what to hold. its kind of funny. its what the markets are saying these days as people jump from one currency to another, in and out of gold, in and out of stocks, in and out of bonds.
VERY CONFUSING TIMES
THE FOOLS say…………… buy emerging markets
this market is for fools
that explains why im trading it. maybe ill unfool myself if my bearish portfolio blows up in my face and i take some time off
————— SELL PBI ,,,,,,,,, BUY MRK ————- this is the wise play in this world. comon world. listen to me. MRK has a nice dividend, growing business, low debt to equity compared to its compadres and has a delicious looking chart.
PBI has the worst debt problem i can find in a company . the chart is donkey meat but looking a bit better these days. once PBI goes to refinance some of that debt they may find higher rates and then you can say bye bye to that chunky dividend.
———— 5 DAY 15MINUTE TREND LINE THREATENED HERE ———
must get back above 1110 to hold the trendline im seeing. anyone?
dow says, i want to still go a bit higher.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p54048515502&a=184607015
woo …………….the market is making me a believer in your call for 1115
back above the short term trend after the fakeout below.
MRK looks like a gap up candiate next week if it close here or higher.
$37.75 is the 50 FIB on this one from the last leg lower and im feeling strong about this one hopping over that on MONDAY.
i think this can extend as far as…1119 if it wants to, but not beyond that if i’m correct…
when it does drop though…(whether it’s already started or not) it’s going to be quick and nasty. the feb 9-12 action was really slow and drawn out. this movement won’t be.
look to get out of puts after a big drop because the retrace of the drop is going to start quickly.
Do you know where the drop could be till ?
woo, could the P2 support line actually be one connecting the July 2009 low and the Feb 2010 low? This is something I am playing around with, and if that’s true then it’s not called P2, it’s called bull market :p
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p54048515502&a=184607015
not sure if u saw my dow chart from earlier.
Thanks woo, I saw that chart, but I guess I was blind for ignoring that trendline.
That’s what happens after staring at the screen on a dull day.
lol. know the feeling. i could use a nap. no more tickers and charts for the day.
so the answer is yes. and part of the trend line extends back to last year, so the trend line is stronger than it looks.
if market can break north a bit more, it will get VERY bullish.
They just announced new shortselling restrictions next week, stocks only allowed down
10% on sell off, no limit on upside as usual.
Why this, why now? Market spiked on and then sold off.
What do they plan to do? Force buy ins at -10% if your short?
When shares fall more than 10% in one day, short sale orders can only be executed at prices higher than the current bid. The rule is intended at curbing market short orders.
It won’t help stop the plunge, just keep people from profiting on it.
There are multiple ways to short stocks. This news only exists to keep the middle class and uneducated comfortable holding long, thinking the government will take care of and protect against another crash.
The opposite will happen. Government needs a crash to shift money into treasuries. It starts next week.
Why do you think I kept all my short shares?
Fritz you called this way back.
Good call.
—————- WOW ————- bullish or bearish ??
add this up in your head
1. Gov raises rates to banks
2. No Inflation present ?
3. Gold sales not going well
4. Gov Institutions cash strapped.
they scared the shorts out and now they scare them from re-entering. perfect play. the largest holdings in most stocks are institutions of which government is the leader in many categories. if they do the following they will get the best price for thier holdings.
1. flush out shorts……………. done
2. dump holdings for cash
3. get best price for holdings as the market is not flooded with short selling.
THIS MAKE SENSE ? this is a bearish case
PLEASE POST A BULLISH CASE BELOW. IM KINDA BEARISH.
1. Fed raised the discount rate,…confidence in banks- bullish
2. No core inflation – period.
3. Dollar rises, thus gold weakens. So what.
4. Gov institution stapled…yeah, ok. So what… Get a job and pay your taxes so that will stop. We are working on it.
MACD currently points to a gap up Monday. I have long calls in preparation for that.
The surprise will be a drop-and-crap Monday, and I have short shares in preparation for that.
BIDU 500
im bought some after hours. on the $0.05 pull back. oversold on the 20sec chart
what a steal!
80X earnings ……………..cheap
and the DIVIDEND is better than holding money in your savings account. way less risky too bcs you dont know if your bank will let you have your money.
LOL, that was the best piece I have seen the ENTIRE DAY.
Richard, are you still paying attention to BA?
My BA chart is showing massive negative divergence, and it tagged the resistance line today and fell back.
I promised myself not to buy another put option next month, but it’s so tempting to break that rule…
yes, im watching that debt whale wiggle and squiggle. im not thinking $65 anymore… but no position.
————- END OF DAY ———- close just below the 5 day trend line 15 minute.
i shuffled things around. including taking my BLK puts off the table. its violating me
but now you know what stock will fall the most next week ha ha.
my ONB puts ……………… filled the order
my M puts…………………… filled the order
my MTD call……………….. fear order filled
i never fully loaded as we stayed above 1105 on the week.
This day was nothing short of fraudulent in my opinion. Absolutely no reason it should have ended in the green. I’m disgusted and sick.
Thanks PPT, thanks ‘big guys”. I hope the aforementioned choke on all their meals this weekend!
It went green because the Fed should confidence in the banks and CPI was encouraging. Or, is that all fraud too in your judgement?
the Fed is a fraud. they can no longer attract foreign capital so like before they are putting on a show to try and entice everyone they hosed in 2007 to come back to the good ole USA and invest.
if they manage this ill be amazed. after banks and brokers wrapped up all the mortgage terd in pretty wrapping paper and sprayed it with perfume.. those in charge turned a blind eye and plugged thier noses…… more foreign banks and countries are in worse financial order because of what happened years ago. as if they are going to fall for these lies and this show of faith. its a desperate attempt to lure what little capital is left in the world into the USA. im glad to live in Canada but at the same time the whole world relied on the USA’s false demand. its going to just keep getting uglier and everyone knows it. when the TWO LARGEST retailers in the world have falling sales and profits…….. kinda points to no recovery.
Excellent points Richard, and 100% accurate. Read his comments Mr. 3min, that is reality!
You two are clueless on the Fed and make up bad indicators. That is a losing strategy.
You think reduced sales at Walmart is a bad sign!? That is crazy.
Yes, it was fraudulent in my opinion!
Well said, Richard. The FED owns the markets, need to say more?
Keep the spirit up , GTROD
And they will keep driving them until they deem its not longer advised.
Yes virginia, there is a PPT. It wants you long gold, oil, stocks and bonds.
Much appreciated Anitang, and thanks for the encouragement. I’ll do my best, and believe Monday will end in red for sure. Just would have been nice for me to see a big down day today going into the weekend, but I’ll just try not to think about the markets at all until late Sunday night.
Thanks again guys for backing me up, and for your support. Good times coming for us all next week I hope
You will never retire with your doom to the world strategy.
It is true that I get news before you do but pull your head out of the sand and realize that “some” really smart people with a ton of money are bullish. The market is perfect for making money right now on a short term basis becuase emotions/confidence are riding lower/higher than technicals/fundamentals….you can play the BBs short or long and make money….but to think we are going red red red or green green green….is just being emotional like the pack. I suck money from those nerds all day.
^ Truth.
I don’t even bother helping anyone else anymore.
I’ve said the same thing for the past 8 months to go long on every pullback. It’s all archived on ST.COM too.. Sept 02, Oct 01-03, Nov 02-04, Nov 27th.. go check those posts on stocktock.com, you’ll see me saying to go long and everyone saying were crashing lmao.. i actually worked with people near wall st.. crisis? what crisis? its a recession for poor people. the rich are loving it.
But hey, why listen to me, I just made $250,000 last year off of maybe 10-15 hours of trading work..
*shakes head*
Right now we have only each other. . . and our puts, LOL.
Sold my SPY calls too early, the fed thing killed my spirit of the longs.
I am getting a feeling that the fed will not allow anything beyond a smallish,
controlled correction. They are in charge, no point in fighting them.
The market is long term and short term overbought. Volume is extremely low on green days and high on red days. P.E.values are inflated to an absurd degree. The market needs to and will go down. Period!!
There is no graph or data to support that hogwash.
SPX RSI
10 min = 49.78
15min =52.80
30min, 60.50
60min = 66.92
Daily = 55.44
I sold a lot of equities on Thursday and Friday because of their MACDs but the market is not sooooo overbought and Momentum is extremely high on the Daily.