From Idan:
Hey everyone, the Fed just raised the discount rates up to 0.75%… the market is now down 0.8% afterhours…. what i’m worried about now is 2 things:
1. Do you really think we are out of the woods yet?
2. What is the CPI number going to be like tomorrow morning?
From Unersaettlich:
Does betting against this market have more upsde and less downside at this juncture than vice versa? Perhaps we’ll get a hint at the answer today:
Is the big rise finally over? We should find out soon, relative to 1050ish S&P support
(1) from the uptrend and
(2)from the 50% Fib between 1440 and 667.
If that breaks, things look bleak for the bulls. If the big upwedge has really broken down, are we starting P[3] or P[5]? It may make little difference in the near term, and take months before we know for sure, but since so many speak of P[3] starting, here’s an overview of the case for P[5], presented without great convicton either way.
Two closer views of the S&P so you can see the influences operating in the 1085 – 1105 zone, especially 1100-1105. I obviously am betting that the bears win this round, ad just love that long-shadowed fallback from resistance near 1105, but am a long way from claiming that the race is over and we rats have won. Upwedges amost always break downward, usually strongly, but not always very far, with the one topping in July being zee’s favorite example.
Time for another photo:
Look at that U.S dollar go, nearly 81 now!
Idan,
I’m thinking we get a 4% drop in a single day so, so you agree? If so, could that day possibly be tomorrow?
I meant to say “Do you agree”
I meant to say “…a 4% drop in one day soon, do you agree’ sorry for all the corrections.
You’re funny, getting excited, lol.
You deserve it, had the patience to reap a reward and i hope it goes down
7% tomorrow just for you/
Good luck, nice call.
Much appreciated Jimbho my friend, I really appreciate it. Yeah, that would be awesome.
I was a somewhat successful trader from summer ’08 until October ’09, make at least some money every month. But since October of last year I’m either down 5-10% at the end of each month, or up 1-10% at very best, which really isn’t fun and has amounted to frustration and a waste of time.
If we can go back down another 10%+ I will finally be up enough money to have made this last 6 months worth while, so it would be really nice, and I think you for the good wishes and kind words.
I’m thinking that we will see a bigger drop over the next month…. maybe another 7-8% to say the least.
Much appreciated Idan, I really believe so, and hope so.
I’d love to see a big down day tomorrow. Its funny, futures are way down now, but I bet as usual the big boys aka criminal manipulators will start buying futures at about 3am eastern time, and we open either just slightly down or possibly up. Without this manipulation the Dow futures should be down 100 points or more at the opening bell. Maybe they will allow this to happen I sure hope so.
I think they have enough people who are holding calls and long positions to let it drop hard.
Yep, I agree -mind the gap-, that was probably their plan all along.
Yeah… i’m not sure what will happen anytime soon, but it’s nice that we ended up at 1108 (61.8% retrace)…
A break of 110.40 on the SPY to the downside is essential tomorrow. Opening below it is just as good.
Take a look at UAUA… it’s about to get pounded if it opens under 14.90.
idan…
thoughts or comments on AMZN and AGU….as always, a little early to the party..holding some march puts…
Anybody have a clue why FAZ has run up .40 in after hours and SRS up .15?? Haven’t seen that happen in a long time.
Something is up with the financials to make FAZ run up so much. Wonder what they ahve up their sleeve?
Whitney on saying they have run out of earning and the increase will kill future
profits.
Only bank she likes is BAC
Says C is redicul expensive and least likely to survive. Half hour later cramer
is pumping C as a sure thing.
One thing about the FED rate hike: it was not an expected news.
Jobless claims, CPI, PPI, and all scheduled data releases listed on Bloomberg economic calendars, are all expected news events.
Obama announcement on bank tax, Spanish debt news, and the FED interest rate hike, are all unexpected.
I will still add to my call position tomorrow just so I can hedge against a possible repeat of July 2009. Please do not follow me. I am committed to have them expire worthless on March opex even if we do breach 1044.
I said the same thing to someone else yesterday, who was counting on a down market day….did not happen….Why….exactly as I stated, rates are going up. The Bond market is crapping right now, money moved from bonds to large cap today and will continue. You bear huggers are going to get burnt again….secret trade…50% long large cap, 20 % short financials. 30% cash.
You can all thank me next month.
Jim, if equities and large caps go up in the next month i’ll eat my shoes. Not gonna happen methinks!!
(in reply to Jin’s post in 6.)
Jim – So, the line of thought is like this:
Bonds go down – Bond yields go up (rates go up) – Dollar goes down – Equities rally
Wouldn’t equities rally be muted due to increase in interest rates?
Another wild card is the Euro. Euro went below its great support at 1.35 in the after hours. If this break turns out to be true, it can only strengthen the dollar which is another mute to the equities rally.
Having said all that, I do believe that US long term debt can collapse any time causing the yields to go up significantly.
Jim and other experts – please chime in.
Thanks.
nothing is expected news for us. but look at the big red sell candle in the last 15minutes of trading. once whomever and we can all guess whom finished thier business with the markets they unloaded into the unsuspecting pile of bids at the close. very sick indeedy.
Fritz,
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I think it’s important for people here to know that just because you post a trade here it doesn’t mean that it’s your only holding. You investment account may be short overall and you’d be buying calls just to hedge. Most experienced traders here would know that but for those that are just starting out or are unaware, should use this to get ideas or a starting point.
I guess tomorrow we’ll be looking for support at around 1085-1090?
Any thoughts?
http://www.alphatrends.net/2010/02/18/sp-500-analysis-levels-for-21910/
———- I POSTED LATE ———- NO CLEAN BREAK ON THE 15MIN OF 1105
however, this raising the rate after hours before expiration trading explains why we hit 111 today. a few large players knew about this and put on a generated squeeze to 111 and probably undersold current calls and loaded up on puts.
YES, i will profit if we decline hard. NO, im not happy that the US Government is involved in market manipulation outside of market hours the day before expiration. this is beyond criminal in my opinion even if it does not affect me financially.
GOOD LUCK TRADING! way to trust the charts if you stayed NET SHORT.
I stayed net short, but I was so close to bailing today on my AMZN puts. I’m holding my CAL puts and will probably add UAUA depending on what happens tomorrow.
Richard, thanks for all your comments, it’s been very helpful.
I KNOW IM NOT ALWAYS RIGHT … but im willing to share my ideas and if i see something like the missing clean break of 1105 its important to the trade. you can go long a false break but be sure to take profits.
hopefully each person who sees my trade does their own analysis and decides if the set-up fits thier risk/reward style. my style is large risk = large reward = small position. less risk = lower reward = larger position. im not always right about determining the risk. this i have to work on:) have to stay away from taking larger positions in low volume options. if i want to cut my position in half and im the only open interest i cant sell them to myself
Like I said, we hit the top of the channel EOD @ 1108 …. and the 20 MA Daily on SPY and SPX …. but keep your eyes open ….
Did she know about this before hand or was this just a coincidence?
Meridith Whitney on the US banks:
http://www.businessinsider.com/meredith-whitney-investors-dont-realize-whats-about-to-hit-the-banking-sector-2010-2
From Hawaii trading:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Gi-9fDeQJwo/S34A_kN69VI/AAAAAAAAB-k/WOCbvZtdQXk/s1600-h/Jammermpu.png
Now, how’d he know that and how many millions did he make LOL ?